Causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a technique used in strategic planning and futurology to more effectively shape the future.[1][2] The technique was pioneered by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futurology researcher.[3]

Theory

Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper[3] as well as his TEDx talk[4] identify four levels:

  1. The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."[3]
  2. Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
  3. Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
  4. Metaphor and myth

History of research

CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for Futures that would come to be widely cited.[3] Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.[5][6]

Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.[7]

A 2008 article by Chris Riedy examined the similarities, differences, and possible combinations of CLA and Ken Wilber's integral theory.[8]

A 2010 article by Gary P. Hampson explored the relationship between integral futures and CLA further, and also considered Richard Slaughter's critique of CLA.[9]

Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015.[10] With various authors, they investigate topics such as:

  • The Global Financial Crisis
  • Terrorism futures
  • Global governance
  • Ageing and the changing workforce
  • Educational and university futures
  • Climate change
  • Water futures in the Muslim world
  • The alternative futures of China
  • Agricultural policy in Australia
  • The new national narrative in Singapore

See also

References
  1. Inayatullah, Sohail (January–February 2014). "Causal Layered Analysis Defined". The Futurist. World Future Society. 48 (1). Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  2. "Causal Layered Analysis". Scenarios for Sustainability Recipes. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  3. Inayatullah, Sohail (October 1998). "Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method" (PDF). Futures. 30 (8): 815–829. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00086-X. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  4. Inayatullah, Sohail (May 12, 2013). "Causal Layered Analysis: Sohail Inayatullah at TEDxNoosa". Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  5. "The Causal Layered Analysis Reader". Metafuture.org. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  6. "The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology" (PDF). Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  7. Ramos, Jose W. (2003). "From critique to cultural recovery: critical futures studies and casual layered analysis". Australian Foresight Institute. Archived from the original on 2014-07-14. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  8. Riedy, Chris (March 2008). "An Integral extension of causal layered analysis" (PDF). Futures. Elsevier. 40 (2): 150–159. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.11.009.
  9. Hampson, Gary P. (March 2010). "Futures of integral futures: An analysis of Richard Slaughter's analysis of Causal Layered Analysis" (PDF). Futures. 42 (2): 134–148. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.09.006. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
  10. "CLA 2.0 Transformative Research in Theory and Practice". 2015.
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