Gateway belief model

The gateway belief model (GBM)[1] is a dual process theory in psychology and the communication sciences. The model suggests that public perception of the degree of normative (expert) agreement – or (scientific) consensus – on societal issues, such as climate change, vaccines, evolution, gun control, and GMO's functions as a so-called "gateway" cognition, influencing an individual's personal opinions, judgments, attitudes, and affective dispositions toward various social and scientific issues.

History

Theoretical background

Specifically, the GBM postulates a two-step process of opinion change, where (mis)perceptions of normative agreement influence "key" personal beliefs that people hold about an issue (step 1), which in turn, shape public attitudes and support (step 2).[1] Although the basic process of debiasing judgment can be viewed as a form of knowledge deficit,[2] development of the gateway belief model is based on research in cognitive and social psychology, mainly drawing on theories of heuristic information-processing, social norms, decision-making, and motivated cognition.[3][4]

Consensus-heuristic

In the face of uncertainty, people often look to others for guidance, including experts.[3][5] Prior research shows that people heuristically rely on consensus cues in the absence of motivation to cognitively elaborate,[6][7] because consensus typically implies correctness. Research also indicates that people desire to conform to the expert consensus[8] and generally prefer to rely on the combined judgment of multiple experts rather than on individual expert opinions.[9] Relying on consensus cues is often considered socially adaptive because it harnesses the wisdom of the crowd effect.[3][4] Consensus is therefore an example of a descriptive norm, i.e., the collective judgment of a group of individuals, such as experts.[10] Public opinion research shows that the views of the general public often diverge sharply from experts on a number of important societal issues, especially in the United States.[11] This is known as the "consensus gap".[12] The main premise of the gateway belief model is that this gap can be reduced by highlighting or communicating the actual degree of social or scientific consensus on an issue.[13][14][4]

Norm perception as a vehicle for social change

The basic mechanism of the gateway belief model, i.e., aligning people's (mis)perception of the degree of group consensus with the factual degree of consensus parallels research in social psychology on leveraging norm-perception as a vehicle for social change.[15] For example, early research[16] showed that college students frequently misperceive the social consensus on campus binge drinking. Through a method known as "estimate and reveal", social psychologists have attempted to reveal the discrepancy between students' subjective perceptions of the drinking norm among their peers and the actual norm (which is typically much lower). Social norm communication campaigns indeed evidence that increasing awareness of the actual drinking norm has positive subsequent impacts on students' own attitudes and behavior towards binge drinking.[17] While excessive binge drinking is often harmful to the individual, large-scale societal misperceptions of scientific agreement on social dilemmas such as climate change or vaccines can be collectively harmful. When the consensus intervention involves experts rather than peers, the social influence process is referred to as obedience.[8]

Role of misinformation

The "sticky" nature of myths and the spread of misinformation is often cited as a major cause of public confusion over the nature of scientific consensus.[18][19][20] Prominent examples include autism-vaccine controversies,[21] the causal link between smoking and lung cancer and the role of carbon dioxide emissions in driving global warming. So-called vested-interest groups, also known as merchants of doubt,[22] deliberately try to undermine public understanding of the scientific consensus on these topics through organized disinformation campaigns. People's perception of expert consensus has generally shown to be sensitive to anecdotal evidence and misinformation.[23][18][24]

Other related concepts include the false-consensus effect[25] and pluralistic ignorance.

Limitations

The "cultural cognition of scientific consensus" thesis[26] advocated by Dan Kahan stands in contrast to the gateway belief model (GBM).[27] The cultural cognition thesis suggests that people will credit or dismiss empirical evidence based on whether it coheres or conflicts with their cultural or political values, a process known as "identity-protective cognition".[20][27] Because people are committed to the types of beliefs that define their everyday socio-political relations, the cultural cognition thesis predicts that exposing people to consensus information on contested issues will therefore increase attitude polarization.[26] The empirical results of the gateway belief model contradict this prediction.[28][29][30] Notably, highlighting scientific consensus has shown not to backfire and can even reduce or neutralize belief polarization between (political) groups.[1][31][29][32][18][24] Related research has also shown that conveying scientific agreement can reduce directional motivated reasoning,[28][33] although other research on this topic has revealed more mixed results.[34][35][30] One explanation for these findings is that changing beliefs about what other groups think (so-called "meta-beliefs") does not require a full and immediate adjustment of one's own worldview. Perceived consensus can therefore be seen as a "non-identity threatening" cognition,[36] especially when a norm is described among a neutral out-group (scientists).[28] Kahan has a notable on-going scholarly debate in the literature with van der Linden and Lewandowsky on the role of perceived consensus and cultural cognition.[20][29][37][38][39]

References
  1. van der Linden, Sander; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Feinberg, Geoffrey; Maibach, Edward (2015). "The Scientific Consensus on Human-Caused Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence". PLOS ONE. 10 (2): e0118489. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118489. PMC 4340922. PMID 25714347.
  2. Timpona, Joseph (2015). "Battling Misinformation: The Scientific Consensus as a Gateway Belief for Climate Change and GMOs". PLOS ONE.
  3. van der Linden, Sander; Lewandowsky, Stephan (2015). "How to Combat Distrust of Science: The Surprising Power of the Psychology of Consensus". Scientific American Mind.
  4. Maibach, Ed; van der Linden, Sander (2016). "The importance of assessing and communicating scientific consensus". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (9): 0913003. Bibcode:2016ERL....11i1003M. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/091003.
  5. Kelman, H.C. (1961). "Processes of opinion change". Public Opinion Quarterly. 25: 57–78. doi:10.1086/266996.
  6. Mutz, Diana (1998). Impersonal Influence: How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9780521637268.
  7. Panagopolous, Costas; Harrison, Brian (2016). "Consensus Cues, Issue Salience and Policy Preferences: An Experimental Investigation". North American Journal of Psychology. 18 (2): 405–418.
  8. Tom, J (2017). "Social Origins of Scientific Deviance: Examining Creationism and Global Warming Skepticism". Sociological Perspectives. 61 (3): 341–360. doi:10.1177/0731121417710459. S2CID 148764740.
  9. Mannes, A.E.; Soll, J.B.; Larrick, R.P. (2014). "The Wisdom of Select Crowds". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 107 (2): 276–299. doi:10.1037/a0036677. PMID 25090129.
  10. Cialdini, Robert; Martin, Steve; Goldstein, Noah (2015). "Small behavioral science informed changes can produce large policy relevant effects". Behavioral Science & Policy. 1: 21–27. doi:10.1353/bsp.2015.0008. S2CID 155650913.
  11. Pew (2012). "Major Gaps Between the Public, Scientists on Key Issues". Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  12. Cook, John; Jacobs, Peter (2014). "Scientists are from Mars, Laypeople are from Venus: An Evidence-Based Rationale for Communicating the Consensus on Climate". Reports of the National Center for Science Education. 34 (6): 3.1.
  13. Hotchkiss, Michael (2015). "Emphasizing consensus about safety boosts support for vaccines". Princeton University News.
  14. van der Linden, Sander; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Maibach, Edward (2016). "Climate Change's Unseen Consensus". US News and World Report.
  15. Tankard, Margaret; Paluck, Betsy (2016). "Norm perception as a vehicle for social change". Social Issues and Policy Review. 10 (1): 181–211. doi:10.1111/sipr.12022.
  16. Prentice, Deborah; Miller, Dale (1993). "Pluralistic ignorance and alcohol use on campus: some consequences of misperceiving the social norm". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 64 (2): 243–256. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.64.2.243. PMID 8433272.
  17. Haines, Michael; Spear, Sherilynn (1996). "Changing the Perception of the Norm: A Strategy to Decrease Binge Drinking among College Students". American Journal of College Health. 45 (3): 134–140. doi:10.1080/07448481.1996.9936873. PMID 8952206.
  18. van der Linden, Sander; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Rosenthal, Seth; Maibach, Ed (2017). "Inoculating the Public Against Misinformation About Climate Change". Global Challenges. 1 (2): 1600008. doi:10.1002/gch2.201600008. PMC 6607159. PMID 31565263.
  19. Lewandowsky, Stephan; Ecker, Ullrich; Seifert, Colleen; Schwarz, Norbert; Cook, John (2012). "Misinformation and its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing". Psychological Science in the Public Interest. 13 (3): 106–131. doi:10.1177/1529100612451018. PMID 26173286. S2CID 42633.
  20. Rosenberg, Paul. "Why climate deniers are winning: The twisted psychology that overwhelms scientific consensus". Salon.
  21. Clarke, Chris; Dixon, Graham (2013). "Heightening uncertainty around certain science media coverage, false balance, and the autism-vaccine controversy". Science Communication. 35 (3): 358–382. doi:10.1177/1075547012458290. S2CID 144473062.
  22. Oreskes, Naomi; Conway, Erik (2010). Merchants of Doubt. Bloomsbury Press. ISBN 978-1-59691-610-4.
  23. Koehler, D (2016). "Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion?". Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 22 (1): 24–38. doi:10.1037/xap0000073. PMID 26752513.
  24. Cook, J; Lewandowsky, S; Ecker, U (2017). "Neutralizing misinformation through inoculation: Exposing misleading argumentation techniques reduces their influence". PLOS ONE. 12 (5): e0175799. Bibcode:2017PLoSO..1275799C. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0175799. PMC 5419564. PMID 28475576.
  25. Wilson, Chris (2016). "Most Americans Think Their Opinion on Guns is Widely Shared". Time Magazine.
  26. Kahan, Dan; Jenkins-Smith, H; Braman, D (2011). "Cultural cognition of scientific consensus". Journal of Risk Research. 14 (2): 147–174. doi:10.1080/13669877.2010.511246. hdl:10.1080/13669877.2010.511246. S2CID 216092368.
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  30. Dixon, Graham (2016). "Applying the Gateway Belief Model to Genetically Modified Food Perceptions: New Insights and Additional Questions". Journal of Communication. 66 (6): 888–908. doi:10.1111/jcom.12260.
  31. Lewandowsky, Stephan; Gilles, Gignac; Vaughan, Samuel (2013). "The Pivotal Role of Perceived Scientific Consensus in Acceptance of Science". Nature Climate Change. 3 (4): 399–404. Bibcode:2013NatCC...3..399L. doi:10.1038/nclimate1720.
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  33. Bolsen, Toby; Druckman, James (2015). "Counteracting the politicization of science". Journal of Communication. 65 (5): 745–769. doi:10.1111/jcom.12171.
  34. Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan (2016). "Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks". Topics in Cognitive Science. 8 (1): 160–179. doi:10.1111/tops.12186. PMID 26749179.
  35. Deryugina, T; Shurchkov, O (2016). "The Effect of Information Provision on Public Consensus about Climate Change". PLOS ONE. 11 (4): e0151469. Bibcode:2016PLoSO..1151469D. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151469. PMC 4827814. PMID 27064486.
  36. van der Linden, Sander. "Why We Don't Worry More about Climate Change". The Huffington Post.
  37. van der Linden, Sander (2016). "A Conceptual Critique of the Cultural Cognition Thesis". Science Communication. 38 (1): 128–138. doi:10.1177/1075547015614970.
  38. van der Linden, S; Leiserowitz, T; Maibach, E. "Gateway Illusion or Cultural Cognition Confusion?". Journal of Science Communication.
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