Metaculus

Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.[1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.[2][3]

Metaculus, Inc.
Metaculus front page
Type of businessPrivate
Available inEnglish
Founded2015 (2015)
Country of originUnited States
Area servedWorldwide
Founder(s)
  • Anthony Aguirre
  • Max Wainwright
  • Greg Laughlin
ChairmanAnthony Aguirre
CEOGaia Dempsey
Employees10
URLmetaculus.com
AdvertisingNo
CommercialYes
Current statusActive

Reward system

Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.[4] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.[5] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.[6]

Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.[7] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[8]

In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.[9] The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.[10]

History

Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.[11][12]

In June 2017, the Metaculus prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions.[13] The Metaculus prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[14]

References
  1. Predicting the Future (of Life), in Future of Life Institute published January 24, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  2. The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019
  3. This Site Keeps Track of Elon Musk’s Predictions About The Future, in Futurism published March 10, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  4. The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published December 17th, 2018 retrieved March 16, 2019
  5. Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  6. Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  7. Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?, in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019
  8. Metaculus FAQ
  9. Besiroglu, Tamay (January 15, 2020). "The Bentham prize". Metaculus. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
  10. Besiroglu, Tamay (February 13, 2020). "The Li Wenliang prize series for forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak". Metaculus. Retrieved 15 February 2020.
  11. Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology, in YaleNews published November 2, 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  12. The power of prediction markets, in Nature, published 18 October 2016 retrieved March 16, 2019
  13. Metaculus Track Record'
  14. Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?, in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019
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