2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

The 2010 Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 9 May 2010 to elect the members of the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Jürgen Rüttgers was defeated. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) subsequently formed a minority government with The Greens, led by SPD leader Hannelore Kraft, who became Minister-President.

2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

9 May 2010
All 181 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia 91 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	7,760,546 (59.3%) 3.7%
Leader Jürgen Rüttgers Hannelore Kraft Sylvia Löhrmann Party CDU SPD Green Last election 89 seats, 44.8% 74 seats, 37.1% 12 seats, 6.2% Seats won 67 67 23 Seat change 22 7 11 Popular vote 2,681,700 2,675,818 941,162 Percentage 34.6% 34.5% 12.1% Swing 10.2% 2.6% 5.9%   Leader Andreas Pinkwart Bärbel Beuermann Party FDP Left Last election 12 seats, 6.2% 0 seats, 3.1%[lower-alpha 1] Seats won 13 11 Seat change 1 11 Popular vote 522,229 435,627 Percentage 6.7% 5.6% Swing 0.5% 2.5%
Results for the direct mandates.
Minister-President before election Jürgen Rüttgers CDU Elected Minister-President Hannelore Kraft SPD

Campaign and issues

As the election was held in Germany's most populous state, it was seen as a test of the federal CDU–FDP government's performance after seven months in office. The government was accused of being indecisive as the two coalition partners had different aims.[1] As the Bundesrat is made up of representatives from the states, the federal government also risked losing its narrow Bundesrat majority in this election.[2]

Other factors in the election were the proposed EU bailout of Greece as well as a fundraising scandal in the governing party and debate over the state's education policy.[3]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2005 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Jürgen Rüttgers	44.8%	89 / 187
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Hannelore Kraft	37.1%	74 / 187
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Sylvia Löhrmann	6.2%	12 / 187
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Andreas Pinkwart	6.2%	12 / 181

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	Linke	Others	Lead
2010 state election	9 May 2010	–	34.6	34.5	12.1	6.7	5.6	6.5	0.1
YouGov	30 Apr–6 May 2010	1,007	35	35.5	10.5	7	7	5	0.5
Emnid	28 Apr–5 May 2010	1,000	37	33	12	8	5	5	4
Forsa	3–5 May 2010	1,005	37	37	10	6	5	5	Tie
GMS	3–4 May 2010	1,001	37	33	12	7	6	5	4
Emnid	21–29 Apr 2010	1,033	38	33	11	8	6	4	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	27–29 Apr 2010	1,080	35	33.5	11	8.5	6	6	1.5
Infratest dimap	27–29 Apr 2010	1,000	37.5	33	10	7.5	5.5	4.5	4.5
Forsa	19–23 Apr 2010	1,004	39	33	10	7	6	5	6
Emnid	12–20 Apr 2010	1,038	38	34	11	8	6	3	4
OmniQuest	19–22 Apr 2010	1,000	37.5	36.8	12.8	5.1	4.8	2.9	0.7
Forsa	12–17 Apr 2010	1,009	38	34	9	8	6	5	4
Forsa	6–9 Apr 2010	1,003	39	34	11	6	5	5	5
Infratest dimap	7–10 Apr 2010	1,000	38	34	12	7	6	3	4
GMS	5–6 Apr 2010	1,002	39	32	12	7	6	4	7
Emnid	15–31 Mar 2010	1,047	38	32	12	8	7	3	6
Emnid	18–22 Mar 2010	996	38	32	11	8	7	4	6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15–17 Mar 2010	1,091	37	33	12	8	6	4	4
Emnid	5–11 Mar 2010	1,000	37	33	12	8	7	3	4
Infratest dimap	1–3 Mar 2010	1,000	35	33	13	10	6	3	2
Forsa	22–26 Feb 2010	1,016	38	34	11	6	6	5	4
GMS	18–20 Feb 2010	1,003	39	31	12	7	6	5	8
Forsa	20–29 Jan 2010	1,047	41	32	11	6	5	5	9
Infratest dimap	19–21 Jan 2010	1,000	36	32	12	9	6	5	4
Forsa	4–15 Jan 2010	1,121	42	31	11	6	5	5	11
Infratest dimap	17–19 Nov 2009	1,000	36	30	11	10	8	5	6
Forsa	2–13 Nov 2009	1,022	41	31	9	9	6	4	10
GMS	21–28 Jul 2009	1,002	39	29	9	12	5	6	10
Infratest dimap	10–11 Jun 2009	1,000	38	27	12	14	6	3	11
Forsa	13–30 Apr 2009	1,283	42	30	8	11	5	4	12
Infratest dimap	24–26 Feb 2009	1,000	40	28	10	12	7	3	12
Forsa	19–30 Jan 2009	1,078	42	26	9	13	6	4	16
Emnid	29 Jan 2009	?	38	30	9	12	9	?	8
Infratest dimap	8–9 Oct 2008	1,000	37	30	10	12	9	2	7
Forsa	24 Sep–2 Oct 2008	1,017	41	30	8	10	7	4	11
Forsa	31 Jul–12 Aug 2008	970	44	27	8	10	7	4	17
Forsa	21–30 Jul 2008	867	42	30	8	10	6	4	12
Forsa	26 May–6 Jun 2008	1,054	44	27	8	9	8	4	17
Forsa	5–16 May 2008	1,216	42	29	9	9	7	4	13
Forsa	17–28 Mar 2008	1,386	43	29	8	8	8	4	14
Infratest dimap	25–27 Mar 2008	1,000	41	31	10	9	6	3	10
Emnid	25–28 Feb 2008	1,000	41	32	8	8	8	?	9
Forsa	28 Jan–5 Feb 2008	1,014	42	33	6	8	7	4	9
Emnid	2 Feb 2008	?	39	35	8	9	6	3	4
Infratest dimap	6–8 Nov 2007	1,000	40	34	8	9	6	3	6
Emnid	2–8 Nov 2007	1,000	40	33	8	9	7	3	7
Forsa	22 Oct–5 Nov 2007	1,418	45	31	7	7	6	4	14
Forsa	30 Aug–11 Sep 2007	1,157	44	29	8	8	6	5	15
Emnid	31 Jul–4 Aug 2007	1,000	38	31	9	11	8	3	7
Infratest dimap	31 Jul–2 Aug 2007	1,000	38	35	9	9	6	3	3
Emnid	23–28 Apr 2007	1,000	39	32	11	12	–	6	7
Emnid	2–5 Mar 2007	1,000	38	33	12	11	–	6	5
Emnid	4–16 Jan 2007	1,000	39	33	11	12	3	2	6
Infratest dimap	9–11 Jan 2007	1,000	38	36	9	9	4	4	2
Forsa	17 Oct 2006	1,932	41	31	8	11	5	4	10
Emnid	11–12 Aug 2006	1,000	40	34	9	9	3	5	6
Infratest dimap	8–10 Aug 2006	1,000	39	35	9	10	4	3	4
Forsa	10–18 Jul 2006	1,055	43	32	7	10	5	3	11
GMS	12–14 May 2006	1,001	42	38	7	7	3	3	4
Infratest dimap	16–18 May 2006	1,000	43	34	6	10	4	3	9
Forsa	8–16 May 2006	1,001	41	33	8	9	5	4	8
Emnid	8–12 May 2006	1,002	40	35	7	8	4	6	5
Infratest dimap	13–15 Dec 2005	1,000	42	36	8	7	4	3	6
Infratest dimap	16–18 Aug 2005	1,000	45	34	7	6	5	3	11
2005 state election	22 May 2005	–	44.8	37.1	6.2	6.2	3.1[lower-alpha 2]	2.6	7.7

Election result

The turnout of 59.3% was the second lowest of any North Rhine-Westphalia state election. Both major parties did poorly; the CDU achieved its worst ever result, while the SPD achieved its worst result since 1950. The main beneficiaries of the election were parties to the left of the SPD, the Greens and The Left, the latter winning seats for the first time.[4] The success of The Left marked the first time since 1950 that a left-wing party had entered the state Landtag.

Summary of the 9 May 2010 election results for the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia

Party		Votes	%	+/-	Seats	+/-	Seats %
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	2,681,700	34.6	10.2	67	22	37.0
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	2,675,818	34.5	2.6	67	7	37.0
	Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)	941,162	12.1	5.9	23	11	12.7
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	522,229	6.7	0.5	13	1	7.2
	The Left (Linke)	435,627	5.6	2.5[lower-alpha 3]	11	11[lower-alpha 4]	6.1
	Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)	121,046	1.6	1.6	0	±0	0
	Pro NRW	107,476	1.4	1.4	0	±0	0
	Others	275,488	3.5		0	±0	0
Total		7,760,546	100.0		181	6
Voter turnout			59.3	3.7

Popular Vote CDU   34.56% SPD   34.48% B'90/GRÜNE   12.13% FDP   6.73% DIE LINKE   5.61% PIRATEN   1.56% Other   4.93%

Landtag seats CDU   37.02% SPD   37.02% B'90/GRÜNE   12.71% FDP   7.18% DIE LINKE   6.08%

Outcome

The outcome of the election was similar to the 2008 Hessian state election, with both the CDU and SPD winning the same number of seats, and neither the incumbent government nor SPD–Green opposition acquiring a majority due to the presence of The Left. The SPD–Green bloc came up one seat short of a majority, while the CDU–FDP bloc was ten seats short. There was speculation of a possible grand coalition between the SPD and CDU, an SPD–Green–Left arrangement, or an SPD–Green–FDP "traffic light coalition".[4]

On 15 May, the FDP declined an offer to enter talks with the SPD and Greens, saying the offer "obviously lacked seriousness" as the two parties had, on the same day, made a similar offer to The Left.[5] By 23 May, negotiations between the three left-of-centre parties appeared to have broken down.[6] This prompted the FDP to enter negotiations with the SPD and Greens. At the same time, talks for a grand coalition between the SPD and CDU were taking place.[7]

Ultimately, no deal could be reached with the FDP, CDU, or Left. The SPD and Greens reached an agreement to form a minority coalition government, and on 14 July, the Landtag formally elected Hannelore Kraft as Minister-President.[8]

Notes

1. Results for WASG (2.2%) and PDS (0.9%).
2. Results for WASG (2.2%) and PDS (0.9%).
3. Compared to results for WASG (2.2%) and PDS (0.9%).
4. Compared to results for WASG and PDS.

References

1. "Now what?". The Economist. May 13, 2010. Retrieved May 18, 2010.
2. "German poll may shackle Merkel and trouble EU". SBS (Australia). May 9, 2010. Retrieved May 18, 2010.
3. Dempsey, Judy (February 28, 2010). "Fund-raising scandals pose risk to Merkel's party in two state elections". The New York Times. Retrieved May 18, 2010.
4. "Grand, traffic-light or red-red-green?". The Economist. May 13, 2010. Retrieved May 18, 2010.
5. "Neue Chance für Rot-Rot-Grün (New chance for red-red-green)". Taz Online (in German). May 15, 2010. Retrieved May 18, 2010.
6. "Linke wirft SPD Wahlbetrug vor". Focus (in German). May 23, 2010. Retrieved May 24, 2010.
7. "Die große Koalition als Antwort (Grand coalition as an answer)". Focus (in German). June 1, 2010. Retrieved June 2, 2010.
8. Brown, Stephen (July 14, 2010). "Centre-left rise in German state underlines Merkel woes". Reuters. Retrieved July 15, 2010.

External links

• https://web.archive.org/web/20100513060641/http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2010/aktuell/dateien/txtdateien/a136lw1000.txt