2019 Budapest mayoral election

The 2019 Budapest mayoral election was held on 13 October 2019 to elect the Mayor of Budapest (főpolgármester). On the same day, local elections were also held throughout Hungary, including the districts of Budapest which will determine the composition of the General Assembly. The election is run using a first-past-the-post voting system. The winner of the election will serve for a term of 5 years.

2019 Budapest mayoral election

13 October 2019
Turnout	51.47%
Candidate Gergely Karácsony István Tarlós Party PM Independent Alliance Momentum–DK–MSZP–PM–LMP Fidesz–KDNP Vote 353,593 306,608 Percentage 50.86% 44.10%
Mayor before election István Tarlós Fidesz–KDNP Elected Mayor Gergely Karácsony Dialogue

Candidates

On 10 October 2018, István Tarlós announced that he will run for a third term as Mayor, after negotiating about his future role with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.[1][2] Also in October, independent publicist Róbert Puzsér declared his run for the mayorship, and published his manifesto Walking Budapest.[3]

Opposition primary

In December 2018, the Hungarian Socialist Party reached an agreement with independent candidate Róbert Puzsér about a two-round primary. According to that, there would be a first round (in February), where the socialists and their allies would participate, and a second round (in June) where the "candidate of the centre" would join them.[4]

The first round was conducted between 28 January and 3 February. Two candidates participated: Csaba Horváth (MSZP group leader in the General Assembly) and Gergely Karácsony (Dialogue, mayor of Zugló).

Budapest mayoral primary - first round[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	PM	Gergely Karácsony	27 598	80.66%
	MSZP	Csaba Horváth	6 535	19.1%
Total votes			34 214	100.0%

After the first round, a second round between Karácsony and Puzsér was planned in July. Opposition parties Politics Can Be Different and Jobbik endorsed Puzsér, with the condition that he takes part in the primary. Multiple forums and debates were held between the two, but on 8 April Puzsér announced he would not take part, citing a recent agreement about district mayoral candidates which did not include the parties supporting him.

The European Parliament election caused a major change in the balance of power, as the Socialists-Dialogue alliance gained only 6% of the votes, with the Democratic Coalition taking 16% and new party Momentum (M) taking almost 10%. This prompted Momentum to announce their candidate, entrepreneur Gábor Kerpel-Fronius (hu) on 3 June,[6] followed by the Democratic Coalition on 6 June, their candidate being television host Olga Kálmán.[7]

The second round was conducted between 20 and 26 June with online and in-person voting. On 23 June a televised debate was held between the three candidates on the channel ATV.[8]

Budapest mayoral primary - second round[9][10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	PM	Gergely Karácsony	33 356	48.9%
	DK	Olga Kálmán	25 093	36.8%
	Momentum	Gábor Kerpel-Fronius	9 792	14.3%
Total votes			68 363	100.0%

According to the organizers' self-imposed criteria, the primary was valid, as more than 50 000 valid votes were cast.

Opinion polling

Pollster/client(s)	Date(s) conducted	Sample size
			Tarlós	Karácsony	Kálmán	Kerpel-Fronius	Puzsér	Berki	Thürmer	Sermer	Neither	Don't know
Medián	2-4 Oct 2019	1000	48%	47%	–	–	5%	–	–	–	–	–
Iránytű	11-21 Sep 2019	1000	37%	35%	–	–	4%	1%	–	–	8%	14%
Nézőpont	11-21 Sep 2019	1000	53%	40%	–	–	7%	0%	–	–	–	-
Publicus / Népszava	9–14 Sep 2019	1000	37%	34%	–	–	4%	0%	–	–	–	25%
Nézőpont	4–14 Sep 2019	1000	50%	42%	–	–	7%	1%	–	–	–	–
Republikon	5-12 Sep 2019	800	35%	34%	–	–	5%	1%	–	–	-	25%
Závecz	2–5 Sep 2019	800	49%	45%	–	–	4%	1%	1%	–	–	–
Nézőpont	23–27 Aug 2019	500	51%	43%	–	–	6%	–	–	–	–	–
Publicus / Népszava	11–14 Jun 2019	800	27%	26%	–	–	5%	–	–	1%	5%	32%
			28%	–	20%	–	4%	–	–	1%	8%	34%
			28%	–	–	15%	6%	–	–	1%	10%	34%

Results

2019 Budapest mayoral election[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Momentum–DK–MSZP–PM–LMP	Gergely Karácsony	353,593	50.86%	N/A
	Fidesz–KDNP	István Tarlós	306,608	44.10%	-4.96%
	Independent	Róbert Puzsér	30,972	4.46%	N/A
	Independent	Krisztián Berki	4,045	0.58%	N/A
Total votes			695,218	100.0%
	Momentum–DK–MSZP–PM–LMP gain from Fidesz–KDNP		Swing

References

1. Tarlós újra elindul a főpolgármesterségért, 24.hu (in Hungarian)
2. Mayor to seek third term, budapesttimes.hu
3. Puzsér Róbert bejelentette: elindul Tarlós ellen a főpolgármesteri címért, 444.hu (in Hungarian)
4. Puzsér kiegyezett Karácsonyékkal: két előválasztás lesz, index.hu (in Hungarian)
5. Karácsony Gergely nyerte a budapesti előválasztás első fordulóját – percről percre a Mércén, merce.hu (in Hungarian)
6. Hivatalos: Kerpel-Fronius Gábor a Momentum jelöltje az előválasztáson, hvg.hu (in Hungarian)
7. Kálmán Olga a DK főpolgármester-jelöltje Archived 6 June 2019 at the Wayback Machine, 444.hu (in Hungarian)
8. Előválasztási vita 2019 - Összecsapott Kálmán Olga, Karácsony Gergely és Kerpel-Fronius Gábor, YouTube, ATV Magyarország (in Hungarian)
9. Marianna, Biró (26 June 2019). "Karácsony nyerte az előválasztást". index.hu (in Hungarian). Retrieved 26 June 2019.
10. Karácsony wins opposition primary for Budapest mayor
11. https://www.valasztas.hu/d4/onk19/szavossz/onkval/hu/foejelolt.html