2024 European Parliament election
The next election to the European Parliament is scheduled to be held in 2024.[1] This will be the first European Parliament election scheduled after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
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Popular vote and seat projections
There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EU election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[2]
Seats
The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament.
Institute | Date | Scope | GUE/NGL | S&D | Greens/EFA | RE | EPP | ECR | ID | NI | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Europe Elects[3] | 2021-01-05 | EU27 | 55 | 138 | 47 | 97 | 190 | 73 | 72 | 22 | 11 |
Europe Elects[4] | 2020-12-02 | EU27 | 55 | 136 | 48 | 95 | 195 | 68 | 73 | 23 | 12 |
Europe Elects[5] | 2020-10-31 | EU27 | 54 | 136 | 48 | 93 | 197 | 70 | 74 | 24 | 9 |
Der (europäische) Föderalist[6] | 2020-10-04 | EU27 | 52 | 136 | 52 | 102 | 193 | 71 | 71 | 28 | - |
Europe Elects[7] | 2020-10-04 | EU27 | 55 | 136 | 49 | 95 | 195 | 71 | 77 | 23 | 4 |
Europe Elects[8] | 2020-08-31 | EU27 | 55 | 134 | 49 | 96 | 196 | 71 | 75 | 24 | 5 |
Europe Elects[9] | 2020-08-14 | EU27 | 54 | 134 | 49 | 97 | 198 | 70 | 75 | 23 | 5 |
Europe Elects[10] | 2020-07-24 | EU27 | 54 | 133 | 48 | 97 | 198 | 71 | 77 | 24 | 3 |
Europe Elects[11] | 2020-05-28 | EU27 | 55 | 135 | 47 | 98 | 197 | 70 | 77 | 23 | 3 |
Europe Elects[12] | 2020-04-30 | EU27 | 55 | 140 | 46 | 94 | 193 | 72 | 78 | 23 | 4 |
Europe Elects[13] | 2020-03-31 | EU27 | 57 | 135 | 51 | 92 | 188 | 72 | 83 | 21 | 6 |
Europe Elects[14] | 2020-02-29 | EU27 | 56 | 133 | 55 | 99 | 184 | 68 | 85 | 21 | 6 |
Europe Elects[15] | 2020-01-31 | EU27 | 55 | 130 | 53 | 101 | 182 | 70 | 85 | 23 | 6 |
Europe Elects[16] | 2019-12-31 | EU27 | 54 | 131 | 52 | 102 | 182 | 70 | 86 | 25 | 3 |
Europe Elects[17] | 2019-12-31 | EU28 | 53 | 153 | 52 | 103 | 177 | 103 | 82 | 25 | 3 |
Europe Elects[18] | 2019-11-30 | EU28 | 49 | 157 | 61 | 107 | 176 | 95 | 80 | 25 | 1 |
Europe Elects[19] | 2019-10-31 | EU28 | 46 | 151 | 62 | 115 | 175 | 92 | 78 | 30 | 2 |
Europe Elects[20] | 2019-09-30 | EU28 | 48 | 151 | 63 | 118 | 170 | 87 | 79 | 32 | 3 |
Europe Elects[21] | 2019-08-31 | EU28 | 47 | 154 | 64 | 116 | 166 | 89 | 80 | 32 | 3 |
Europe Elects[22] | 2019-07-31 | EU28 | 48 | 153 | 65 | 117 | 168 | 85 | 79 | 33 | 3 |
Europe Elects[23] | 2019-06-30 | EU28 | 46 | 145 | 74 | 119 | 167 | 64 | 80 | 54 | 2 |
post-Brexit EU Parliament | 2020-02-01 | EU27 | 40 | 148 | 68 | 97 | 187 | 62 | 76 | 27 | - |
pre-Brexit EU Parliament | 2019-05-26 | EU28 | 41 | 154 | 74 | 108 | 182 | 62 | 73 | 57 | - |
Graphical summary
The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a 6-poll moving average. From 31 January, the United Kingdom is not included.
Popular vote
The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level. EU27 excludes the United Kingdom in this context. EU28 includes the United Kingdom.
Institute | Date | Scope | GUE/NGL | S&D | Greens/EFA | RE | EPP | ECR | ID | NI | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Europe Elects[3] | 2020-12-31 | EU27 | 8.4% | 18.9% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 24.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
Europe Elects[4] | 2020-12-02 | EU27 | 8.2% | 18.5% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 24.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% |
Europe Elects[5] | 2020-10-31 | EU27 | 7.6% | 18.4% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 25.0% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
Europe Elects[7] | 2020-10-04 | EU27 | 7.9% | 17.9% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 24.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% |
Europe Elects[8] | 2020-08-31 | EU27 | 8.1% | 18.3% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 25.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% |
Europe Elects[9] | 2020-08-14 | EU27 | 8.0% | 18.0% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 25.3% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% |
Europe Elects[10] | 2020-07-24 | EU27 | 8.3% | 17.9% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 25.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% |
Europe Elects[11] | 2020-05-28 | EU27 | 8.2% | 18.0% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 25.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% |
Europe Elects[12] | 2020-04-30 | EU27 | 8.2% | 18.5% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 25.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% |
Europe Elects[13] | 2020-03-31 | EU27 | 8.5% | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 24.1% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% |
Europe Elects[14] | 2020-02-29 | EU27 | 9.1% | 18.0% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 22.7% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% |
Europe Elects[15] | 2020-01-31 | EU27 | 8.0% | 18.6% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 20.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
Europe Elects[24] | 2019-12-31 | EU28 | 8.1% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 20.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% |
Europe Elects[25] | 2019-11-30 | EU28 | 8.0% | 18.4% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 20.3% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
Europe Elects[26] | 2019-10-31 | EU28 | 6.5% | 17.8% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 20.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% |
Europe Elects[27] | 2019-09-30 | EU28 | 6.6% | 19.5% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 19.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% |
Europe Elects[28] | 2019-08-31 | EU28 | 6.9% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 20.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% |
Europe Elects[29] | 2019-07-31 | EU28 | 6.6% | 19.0% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 19.3% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% |
Europe Elects[30] | 2019-06-30 | EU28 | 6.9% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 19.1% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
European election 2019[31] | 2019-05-26 | EU27 | 7.0% | 18.9% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 22.6% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
European election 2019[32] | 2019-05-26 | EU28 | 6.5% | 18.5% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% |
References
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 27 September 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "EU Parliamentary Projection: Rounding Up the Tumultuous 2020". Europe Elects. Retrieved 6 January 2021.
- "EU Parliamentary Projection: The Right-Wing in Retreat". Europe Elects. Retrieved 6 December 2020.
- "EU Parliamentary Projection: Talent-Show Judges, Folk Singers, and Eastern Europe". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 October 2020.
- "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2020): Sozialdemokraten verlieren, Liberale und Rechte gewinnen". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 28 October 2020.
- "EU Parliamentary Projection: Second Wave of the Pandemic and Europeans Rally No More". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 October 2020.
- "EU Parliamentary Projection: No Domino-Effect Caused by Brexit in Sight". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
- "EU Parliament Projection: Centre-Right EPP Would Win EU Election". Europe Elects. Retrieved 21 August 2020.
- "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020.
- "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020.
- "EU Parliament Projection: Corona Rallies Europeans Around the Flag". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 March 2020.
- "EU Parliament Projection: Government Parties Still Gaining". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 April 2020.
- "European Parliament Projection: Ireland, Thuringia, and the Aftermath". Europe Elects. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
- "European Parliament Projection: The EU Parliament Post-Brexit". Europe Elects. February 2020. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
- "2024 EU election projection". Twitter. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
- "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.