Next Pakistani general election

General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan less than 60 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which is set to dissolve on 13 August 2023, unless dissolved earlier: in which case the election shall be held within 90 days after dissolution. This means that the election must be held by or before 12 October 2023.[1]

Next Pakistani general election

on or before 12 October 2023
All 336 seats in the National Assembly 169 seats needed for a majority
Leader Imran Khan Shehbaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari Party PTI PML(N) PPP Leader since 25 April 1996 6 March 2018 30 December 2007 Last election 149 seats, 31.82% 82 seats, 24.35% 54 seats, 13.03% Seats needed 20 87 115
Incumbent Prime Minister Imran Khan PTI

Background

2018 elections

General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July, 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).

As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the joining of many independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.

Opinion polling prior to campaigning had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the final result, the PTI made a net gain with 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N made a net loss with 24.35%. In the lead-up to the elections, there had been allegations by some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N.[2][3] The opposition to the winning parliamentary party alleged large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices.[4][5][6] However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.[7] Some [8] had termed the ruling PML-N "embattled... facing a number of desertion and corruption charges". Imran Khan proceeded to form the coalition government, announcing his cabinet soon after.[9] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).[10]

Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections were conducted fair and free.[11][12][13] A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls.[14] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.[15][16]

Electoral system

The 342 seats of the National Assembly consist of 272 elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[17] 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minority groups. The reserved seats are elected by proportional representation based on the national vote share in the single-member constituencies with a 5% electoral threshold.[18]

Parties

The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.

Name			Claimed Ideology(ies)	Party Leader	Voteshare in 2018	General NA Seats won in the 2018 elections	Total seats in the 15th National Assembly
	PTI	Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف	Populism Islamic Democracy Welfarism	Imran Khan	31.82%	116 / 272	149 / 342
	PML(N)	Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز)	Conservatism Economic Liberalism Federalism	Shehbaz Sharif	24.35%	64 / 272	82 / 342
	PPP	Pakistan Peoples Party پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی	Social Democracy Secularism Social Liberalism	Bilawal Bhutto Zardari	13.03%	43 / 272	54 / 342
	MMA	Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal متحدہ مجلس عمل	Islamism Conservatism	Fazl-ur-Rahman	4.85%	12 / 272	15 / 342
	TLP	Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan تحریک لبیک پاکستان	Islamism Pro-Ahmadiyya-Persecution	Saad Hussain Rizvi	4.21%	0 / 272	0 / 342
	GDA	Grand Democratic Alliance گرینڈ ڈیموکریٹک الائنس	Regionalism Social Democracy Humanism	Pir Pagaro	2.37%	2 / 272	3 / 342
	ANP	Awami National Party عوامی نيشنل پارٹی	Pashtun Nationalism Democratic Socialism Secularism	Asfandyar Wali Khan	1.54%	1 / 272	1 / 342
	MQM(P)	Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan) متحدہ قومی موومنٹ(پاکستان)	Liberalism Muhajir Nationalism Secularism	Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui	1.38%	6 / 272	7 / 342
	PML(Q)	Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam) پاکستان مسلم لیگ(قائد اعظم)	Conservatism Pakistani Nationalism	Shujaat Hussain	0.97%	4 / 272	5 / 342
	BAP	Balochistan Awami Party بلوچستان عوامی پارٹی	Federalism Progressivism	Jam Kamal Khan	0.60%	4 / 272	5 / 342
	BNP(M)	Balochistan National Party (Mengal) بلوچستان نيشنل پارٹی(مینگل)	Baloch Nationalism Democratic Socialism Secularism	Akhtar Mengal	0.45%	3 / 272	4 / 342
	AML	Awami Muslim League Pakistan عوامی مسلم لیگ پاکستان	Mass Politics	Shaikh Rasheed Ahmad	0.22%	1 / 272	1 / 342
	JWP	Jamhoori Wattan Party جمہوری وطن پارٹی	Baloch Nationalism	Nawabzada Shahzain Bugti	0.04%	1 / 272	1 / 342

Opinion polls

In the run up to the next Pakistani general elections, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

Nationwide voting intention

The results in the table below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls which included undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PML(N)	PPP	MMA^A	TLP	Other	Lead	Margin of error	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-voters^B	Polling method
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	36%	38%	13%	4%	3%	6%	+2%	±3.22%	2,003	32%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	33%	38%	15%	3%	3%	8%	+5%	±2.95%	2,024	26%	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	30 June 2020	PDF	32%	36%	15%	4%	3%	10%	+4%	±3.17%	1,702	25%	CATI
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	31%	28%	15%	5%	21%		+3%	±3-5%	~1,400	N/A^C	In-Person Interviews
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	43%	27%	15%	1%	1%	13%	+16%	±2.05%	3,991	22%	In-Person Interviews
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	31.82%	24.35%	13.03%	4.85%	4.21%	21.74%	+7.47%	N/A	53,123,733	N/A	Final Election Results

Government approval rating

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the PTI federal government in Islamabad or Imran Khan's overall performance as prime minister since 25 July 2018. The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Approve	Neutral	Disapprove	DK/NA		Strongly Approve	Approve	Neutral	Disapprove	Strongly Disapprove	DK/NA		Net	Margin of Error	Sample Size	Polling Method
Gallup Pakistan	19 August 2020	PDF	38%	30%	31%	2%	22%	16%	30%	13%	18%	2%	+7%	±3-5%	1,662	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	38%	N/A	54%	7%	16%	22%	N/A	17%	37%	7%	-16%	±2.18%	2,024	CATI
Gallup Pakistan	15 February 2020	PDF	32%	N/A	66%	1%	8%	24%	N/A	19%	47%	1%	-34%	±3-5%	1,208	IPI
Gallup Pakistan	30 September 2019	PDF	45%	N/A	53%	2%	15%	32%	N/A	16%	37%	2%	-8%	±3-5%	1,237	IPI
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	45%	N/A	53%	2%	21%	24%	N/A	32%	21%	2%	-8%	±3-5%	~1,400	IPI
Gallup Pakistan	29 December 2018	PDF	51%	N/A	46%	3%	13%	38%	N/A	26%	20%	3%	+5%	±2-3%	~1,141	N/A
IPOR (IRI)	1 December 2018	PDF	47%	N/A	27%	26%	17%	30%	N/A	18%	9%	26%	+20%	±2.17%	2,041	CATI
Pulse Consultant	28 November 2018	HTML	51%	N/A	30%	19%	N/A						+21%	±2.07%	2,019	CATI
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	56%	N/A	40%	5%	16%	40%	N/A	28%	12%	5%	+16%	±2.05%	3,991	IPI

Notes

A. ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.

B. ^ This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the Margin of Error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.

C. ^ This poll did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References

1. "The Constitution of Pakistan, Part VIII: Elections".
2. "The assault on Pakistan media ahead of vote". Bbc.com. 4 July 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2018.
3. Fair, C. Christine (27 July 2018). "Pakistan's Sham Election". Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 6 August 2018.
4. "Ex-cricketer Khan leads Pakistan elections in early counting". BBC News. 26 July 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2018.
5. Gannon, Kathy (26 July 2018). "Unofficial Results in Pakistan's Election Show Lead For Imran Khan, But Opponents Allege Fraud". TIME Magazine. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
6. Shah, Saeed (25 July 2018). "Ex-Cricket Star Imran Khan Headed for Pakistan Election Victory". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
7. "Blow after blow dims re-election hopes of Pakistan's ruling party". 11 May 2018 – via uk.reuters.com.
8. "Pakistan's ex-PM Nawaz Sharif slammed for Mumbai attack comments". aljazeera.com.
9. "Imran Khan Close to Forming Pakistan Coalition, Cabinet Decided". Bloomberg.com. 2018-07-30. Retrieved 2020-10-05.
10. "Subscribe to read". Financial Times. Cite uses generic title (help)
11. "Pakistan election: Party of Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif concedes to Imran Khan".
12. "ECP rejects political parties' claim of 'rigging' on election day".
13. "'PML-N rejects poll results,' declares Shahbaz Sharif". Dawn. 25 July 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
14. "FAFEN satisfied with transparency of polls, urges ECP to allay opposition's concerns". July 27, 2018.
15. Barker, Memphis (27 July 2018). "EU piles pressure on Imran Khan after Pakistan election". theguardian.com. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
16. "EU monitors team says Pakistan election not a level playing field". Geo TV news. 28 July 2018.
17. Electoral system IPU
18. Pakistan IFES