Opinion polling for the 2011 Portuguese legislative election
In the run up to the 2011 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.
The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous legislative election, held on 27 September 2009, to the day the next election was held, on 5 June 2011.
Nationwide polling
Graphical summary
Polling
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
| Date | Polling Firm | Sample size | PS | PSD | CDS-PP | BE | CDU | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 June | 2011 Legislative Election | 5,585,054 | 28.1 74 seats |
38.7 108 seats |
11.7 24 seats |
5.2 8 seats |
7.9 16 seats |
8.5 0 seats |
10.7 |
| 5 Jun (20:00) | Exit Poll - RTP1 Universidade Católica |
28,762 | 26.0–30.0 67 / 77 |
37.0–42.0 104 / 114 |
11.0–14.0 22 / 28 |
5.0–7.0 8 / 11 |
7.0–9.0 14 / 18 |
5.0–8.0 0 / 1 |
11.0 12.0 |
| 5 Jun (20:00) | Exit Poll - SIC Eurosondagem |
42,712 | 25.5–29.7 69 / 77 |
38.3–42.5 102 / 109 |
11.1–13.9 22 / 25 |
4.5–6.7 7 / 10 |
6.8–9.0 15 / 16 |
12.8 | |
| 5 Jun (20:00) | Exit Poll - TVI INTERCAMPUS |
29,636 | 24.4–28.8 64 / 78 |
37.7–42.5 107 / 121 |
10.1–13.7 12 // 28 |
3.8–7.0 4 / 12 |
6.2–9.4 11 / 20 |
6.6–9.8 0 / 1 |
13.3 13.7 |
| Exit polls | |||||||||
| 2 Jun | Eurosondagem | 520 | 31.0 | 35.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 |
| 31 May–2 Jun | Aximage | 968 | 29.2 | 37.4 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| 1 Jun | Eurosondagem | 507 | 31.1 | 35.9 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| 29 May–1 Jun | Aximage | 1,200 | 30.1 | 36.3 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| 28 May–1 Jun | INTERCAMPUS | 1,026 | 31.1 | 36.5 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 5.4 |
| 31 May | Eurosondagem | 503 | 31.3 | 35.4 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 4.1 |
| 28–31 May | Marktest | 1,208 | 30.1 | 38.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| 30 May | Eurosondagem | 522 | 32.2 | 35.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 28–29 May | Universidade Católica | 3,963 | 31.0 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| 29 May | Eurosondagem | 505 | 32.1 | 34.7 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 |
| 25–29 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,010 | 32.3 | 37.0 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| 27 May | Eurosondagem | 521 | 32.4 | 33.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 1.3 |
| 26 May | Eurosondagem | 511 | 32.3 | 33.9 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 |
| 21–26 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,015 | 34.1 | 35.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| 25 May | Eurosondagem | 515 | 32.5 | 33.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 1.1 |
| 24 May | Eurosondagem | 510 | 32.0 | 33.7 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 1.7 |
| 23 May | Eurosondagem | 525 | 32.6 | 33.1 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 0.5 |
| 21–22 May | Universidade Católica | 1,490 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | Tied |
| 18–22 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,024 | 33.2 | 39.6 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 6.4 |
| 14–18 May | Aximage | 750 | 29.5 | 31.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 14.0 | 1.6 |
| 11–15 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,025 | 35.4 | 36.1 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 7–12 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,029 | 36.8 | 33.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| 9–10 May | Marktest | 805 | 33.4 | 39.7 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| 4–8 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,020 | 35.1 | 36.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 2–5 May | INTERCAMPUS | 1,009 | 34.8 | 37.0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| 28 Apr–May 3 | Eurosondagem | 2,048 | 32.5 | 35.8 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 |
| 29 Apr–May 2 | Aximage | 600 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 3.2 |
| 30 Apr–May 1 | Universidade Católica | 1,370 | 36.0 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 |
| 14–19 Apr | Eurosondagem | 1,025 | 32.7 | 36.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| 15–17 Apr | Marktest | 805 | 36.1 | 35.3 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 0.8 |
| 8–10 Apr | INTERCAMPUS | 917 | 33.1 | 38.7 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 5.6 |
| 2–3 Apr | Universidade Católica | 1,288 | 33.0 | 39.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| 28–30 Mar | Aximage | 600 | 28.4 | 34.8 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 |
| 27–30 Mar | Eurosondagem | 1,021 | 30.4 | 37.3 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 6.9 |
| 24–26 Mar | INTERCAMPUS | 805 | 32.8 | 42.2 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 9.4 |
| 23 March: José Sócrates resigns as prime minister due to the passage of a no-confidence motion and an election is called.[1] | |||||||||
| 18–23 Mar | Marktest | 805 | 24.5 | 46.7 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 22.2 |
| 3–7 Mar | Aximage | 600 | 27.9 | 37.9 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 10.0 |
| 23–28 Feb | Eurosondagem | 1,021 | 30.6 | 36.9 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| 17–23 Feb | Marktest | 797 | 29.1 | 47.8 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 18.7 |
| 3–8 Feb | Eurosondagem | 1,025 | 29.3 | 36.3 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| 1–3 Feb | Aximage | 600 | 27.8 | 37.8 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| 19–21 Jan | Eurosondagem | 1,548 | 30.3 | 37.4 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 7.1 |
| 16–19 Jan | INTERCAMPUS | 1,004 | 30.8 | 36.8 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 12.2 | 6.0 |
| 5–11 Jan | Eurosondagem | 1,010 | 29.6 | 37.3 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 7.7 |
| 3–6 Jan | Aximage | 600 | 25.4 | 38.3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 12.9 |
| 2011 | |||||||||
| 10–15 Dec | INTERCAMPUS | 607 | 30.1 | 41.6 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 11.5 |
| 5–7 Dec | Aximage | 600 | 27.2 | 39.8 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 12.6 |
| 2–7 Dec | Eurosondagem | 1,020 | 30.3 | 36.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| 16–19 Nov | Marktest | 804 | 26.9 | 44.3 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 17.4 |
| 12–17 Nov | INTERCAMPUS | 609 | 30.5 | 39.2 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 8.7 |
| 4–9 Nov | Eurosondagem | 1,025 | 30.0 | 36.9 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| 26–29 Oct | Aximage | 600 | 26.5 | 35.2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| 23–25 Oct | Universidade Católica | 1,140 | 26.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 |
| 19–24 Oct | Marktest | 807 | 25.1 | 42.0 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 16.9 |
| 6–12 Oct | Eurosondagem | 1,021 | 35.3 | 35.3 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | Tied |
| 4–6 Oct | INTERCAMPUS | 609 | 32.0 | 35.2 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| 1–4 Oct | Aximage | 600 | 31.7 | 30.6 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 1.1 |
| 14–17 Sep | Marktest | 804 | 35.7 | 38.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 |
| 6–9 Sep | Aximage | 600 | 33.8 | 32.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 1.7 |
| 1–7 Sep | Eurosondagem | 1,035 | 36.0 | 35.8 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 0.2 |
| 28 Jul–Aug 2 | Eurosondagem | 1,031 | 35.0 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
| 20–26 Jul | Marktest | 802 | 33.3 | 37.3 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 |
| 16–19 Jul | INTERCAMPUS | 603 | 34.4 | 39.2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 4.8 |
| 8–11 Jul | Euroexpansão | 1,504 | 31.7 | 41.0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| 1–6 Jul | Eurosondagem | 1,035 | 33.7 | 36.2 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 1–4 Jul | Aximage | 600 | 30.6 | 34.9 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.3 |
| 19–21 Jun | Universidade Católica | 1,179 | 34.0 | 37.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 |
| 15–20 Jun | Marktest | 804 | 24.1 | 47.7 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 23.6 |
| 2–8 Jun | Eurosondagem | 1,025 | 34.8 | 34.9 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.1 |
| 1–7 Jun | Aximage | 600 | 30.5 | 31.6 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 1.1 |
| 18–20 May | Marktest | 804 | 27.6 | 43.9 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 16.3 |
| 13–18 May | Eurosondagem | 1,024 | 36.2 | 33.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 |
| 4–7 May | Aximage | 600 | 30.2 | 31.5 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 1.3 |
| 27–30 Apr | INTERCAMPUS | 803 | 35.8 | 41.6 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 5.8 |
| 20–25 Apr | Marktest | 800 | 34.0 | 39.8 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| 8–13 Apr | Eurosondagem | 1,020 | 36.0 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 7.5 |
| 5–8 Apr | Aximage | 600 | 32.2 | 30.4 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 1.8 |
| 26 March: Pedro Passos Coelho is elected leader of PSD[2] | |||||||||
| 16–21 Mar | Marktest | 806 | 35.6 | 30.8 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| 6–9 Mar | Universidade Católica | 1,148 | 41.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 |
| 5–9 Mar | Aximage | 600 | 34.0 | 25.1 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| 4–9 Mar | Eurosondagem | 1,019 | 36.9 | 26.2 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 10.7 |
| 23–27 Feb | INTERCAMPUS | 1,015 | 40.4 | 34.4 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| 16–21 Feb | Marktest | 804 | 35.9 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| 10–13 Feb | Aximage | 600 | 32.4 | 26.3 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 13.1 | 6.1 |
| 4–9 Feb | Eurosondagem | 1,025 | 38.1 | 26.9 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 11.2 |
| 2–5 Feb | Aximage | 600 | 33.8 | 24.8 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| 19–23 Jan | Marktest | 803 | 40.5 | 29.2 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 11.3 |
| 7–12 Jan | Eurosondagem | 1,010 | 38.0 | 27.4 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 10.6 |
| 6–11 Jan | Aximage | 600 | 33.4 | 26.5 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.9 |
| 2010 | |||||||||
| 7–10 Dec | Aximage | 600 | 32.5 | 24.4 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 12.9 | 8.1 |
| 25 Nov–Dec 1 | Eurosondagem | 1,031 | 38.5 | 26.9 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 11.6 |
| 17–19 Nov | Marktest | 808 | 41.7 | 25.6 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 16.1 |
| 3–6 Nov | Aximage | 600 | 35.2 | 27.3 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.9 |
| 29 Oct–Nov 3 | Eurosondagem | 1,030 | 38.8 | 27.5 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 11.3 |
| 20–24 Oct | Marktest | 806 | 42.9 | 23.7 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 19.2 |
| 12–16 Oct | Aximage | 600 | 35.3 | 25.4 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 12.8 | 9.9 |
| 11 October 2009 | 2009 Local Elections | 5,535,104 | 37.7 | 38.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 1.1 |
| 27 September 2009 | 2009 Legislative Election | 5,681,258 | 36.6 97 seats |
29.1 81 seats |
10.4 21 seats |
9.8 16 seats |
7.9 15 seats |
6.2 0 seats |
7.5 |
Leadership polls
Preferred Prime Minister
Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
Sócrates vs Passos Coelho
| Date | Polling Firm | José Sócrates |
Passos Coelho |
Neither | Both | No opinion |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aximage | 31 May–2 Jun | 24.3 | 39.6 | 25.8 | 10.3 | 15.3 | |
| Aximage | 29 Apr–May 2 | 36.2 | 36.8 | 27.0 | 0.6 | ||
| Aximage | 28–30 Mar | 35.2 | 36.3 | 28.5 | 1.1 | ||
| Aximage | 3–7 Mar | 34.5 | 35.8 | 29.7 | 1.3 | ||
| Aximage | 1–3 Feb | 34.3 | 36.9 | 28.8 | 2.6 | ||
| Aximage | 3–6 Jan | 29.5 | 38.4 | 32.1 | 8.9 | ||
| 2011 | |||||||
| Aximage | 5–7 Dec | 31.6 | 38.6 | 29.8 | 7.0 | ||
| Aximage | 26–29 Oct | 28.4 | 38.8 | 27.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 10.4 |
| Aximage | 1–4 Oct | 33.7 | 37.2 | 22.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Aximage | 6–9 Sep | 31.8 | 38.5 | 21.8 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 6.7 |
| Aximage | 1–4 Jul | 29.8 | 45.0 | 16.7 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 15.2 |
| Aximage | 1–7 Jun | 31.4 | 44.6 | 16.1 | 1.5 | 6.4 | 13.2 |
| Aximage | 4–7 May | 41.6 | 41.3 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.3 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Apr | 35.9 | 34.7 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 14.5 | 1.2 |
| 2010 | |||||||
References
- "José Sócrates demitiu-se", Sol, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 31 August 2011.
- Sá, Paula; Coelho, Hugo Filipe; Mangas, Francisco; "Passos esmagador obtém garantia de união interna Archived 2011-09-28 at the Wayback Machine", Diário de Notícias, 27 March 2010. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
External links
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