Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election.[1]

"Safe" seats require a swing of more than 10 points to change, "fairly safe" seats a swing of 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

LIBERAL/NATIONAL SEATS (52)
Marginal
East Hills Glenn Brookes LIB 0.4 points
Upper Hunter Michael Johnsen NAT 2.2 points
Monaro John Barilaro NAT 2.5 points
Lismore Thomas George NAT 2.9 v GRN
Coogee Bruce Notley-Smith LIB 2.9 points
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.2 points
Murray Austin Evans NAT 3.3 points v SFF
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 4.7 points v IND
Fairly Safe
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 6.2 points
Goulburn Pru Goward LIB 6.6 points
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.6 points
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 6.7 points
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB 7.6 points
Bega Andrew Constance LIB 8.2 points
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB 8.7 points
Seven Hills Mark Taylor LIB 8.7 points
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 8.7 points
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 9.0 points
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 9.6 points
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB 9.7 points
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT 9.7 points
Safe
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 10.0 points v IND
Manly James Griffin LIB 10.5 points v IND
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 10.5 points
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT 10.9 points
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 11.5 points
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 12.2 points
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 12.9 points
Barwon Kevin Humphries NAT 12.9 points
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 13.0 points
Albury Greg Aplin LIB 13.2 points
Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser NAT 14.3 points
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 15.8 points
Epping Damien Tudehope LIB 16.2 points
Wollondilly Jai Rowell LIB 17.3 points
Hawkesbury Dominic Perrottet LIB 17.8 points
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 17.8 points
Camden Chris Patterson LIB 18.3 points
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB 18.8 points
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 18.9 points
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT 19.0 points
Dubbo Troy Grant NAT 20.4 points
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 20.9 points
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB 21.8 points
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB 22.9 points v GRN
Ku-ring-gai Alister Henskens LIB 23.0 points
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB 24.4 points v GRN
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB 25.2 points
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB 25.7 points v GRN
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 27.1 points
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB 28.8 points v GRN
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB 29.4 points
LABOR SEATS (34)
Marginal
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 0.4 points
Strathfield Jodi McKay ALP 1.8 points
Granville Julia Finn ALP 2.1 points
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 3.4 points
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 4.7 points
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 4.8 points
Auburn Luke Foley ALP 5.9 points
Fairly safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 6.9 points
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 7.3 points
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 7.4 points
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 8.0 points v IND
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 8.1 points
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 8.1 points
Wyong David Harris ALP 8.7 points
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 8.8 points
Safe
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 10.5 v GRN
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 10.8 points
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 12.5 points
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 12.9 points
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 13.0 points
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 13.8 points
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP 14.0 points
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 14.1 points
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 15.4 points
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.0 points
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP 17.2 points
Keira Ryan Park ALP 17.4 points
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP 17.8 points
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 20.8 points
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 20.9 points
Lakemba Jihad Dib ALP 21.6 points
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 22.0 points
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 27.8 Points v CDP
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 32.3 Points v CDP
CROSSBENCH SEATS (7)
Orange Philip Donato SFF 0.1 points vs NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 3.1 points v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 4.7 points v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 8.1 v LIB
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 9.3 points v ALP
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 9.6 points v LIB
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 10.7 v ALP

References
  1. Raue, Ben. "Pendulum – NSW 2019". The Tally Room.
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