2019 Kazakh presidential election

Early presidential elections were held in Kazakhstan on 9 June 2019 following the resignation of long-term president Nursultan Nazarbayev.[1] Originally scheduled for 2020, seven candidates were registered to participate in the elections, including incumbent president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who had assumed the presidency three months before the elections following the resignation of Nazarbayev. Tokayev was subsequently re-elected with 71% of the vote. His closest challenger, Amirjan Qosanov of the Ult Tagdyry party, received 16%.

2019 Kazakh presidential election

9 June 2019
Turnout	77.54% 17.67 pp
Nominee Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Amirjan Qosanov Dania Espaeva Party Nur Otan Ult Tagdyry Ak Zhol Popular vote 6,539,715 1,495,401 465,714 Percentage 70.96% 16.23% 5.05%
Results by region
President before election Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Nur Otan Elected President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Nur Otan

On 12 June, Tokayev took the oath of office during a ceremony at the Palace of Independence in the capital, Nur-Sultan.[2]

Background

President Nursultan Nazarbayev was elected for a fifth term in the 2015 Kazakh presidential election. In September 2016, Nazarbayev reshuffled several cabinet positions and appointed his daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva to the post of Deputy Prime Minister, believed to be due to Uzbek President Islam Karimov's unexpected death who had no clear successor which led to a speculation of Nazarbayev's potential moves in having his daughter to succeed him.[3] In a November 2016 interview to the Bloomberg News, Nazarbayev said that he had no plans in handing over his succession to his children and mentioned that any transfer of power in the country is carried out by the constitution.[4]

In May 2018, the Parliament approved a bill which granted Nazarbayev the life tenure as a Chairman of the Security Council of Kazakhstan.[5] This granted him the control of the country's policies without holding the presidential office.[6] Chair of the Senate Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in an interview to BBC in June 2018, expressed doubts that Nazarbayev would seek another term in the election that would've been held in 2020.[7] This created speculation that Nazarbayev was preparing to leave the presidency.[8]

On 19 March 2019, Nazarbayev announced his resignation, stating that Senate Chair Kassym-Jomart Tokayev would take over as president for the remainder of his term.[9] However, on 9 April 2019, Tokayev announced that a snap election would be held on 9 June to avoid "political uncertainty."[1] Some talks arose that Nazarbayev's daughter, Dariga, who succeeded Tokayev as the Chair of the Senate, was expected to run in the election as a way to ensure her father's legacy.[10] However, Dariga stated that she had no plans in joining the race.[11] On 23 April, backed by Nazarbayev himself, Tokayev was nominated by the ruling party Nur Otan to be its candidate for the election and became registered on 3 May 2019, putting the rumors of Dariga's possible candidacy aside.[12][13]

Electoral system

The President of Kazakhstan is elected using the two-round system; if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates.[14]

Candidates

Nine candidates applied to the Central Election Commission to contest the elections. A record seven were registered to run, whilst one candidate withdrew and one was disqualified for not possessing sufficient knowledge of the Kazakh language.[15]

Registered candidates

Candidate, political party		Political party		Occupation	Registration date
Jambyl Ahmetbekov (Campaign)		QKHP		Member of the Mazhilis (2012–present)Secretary of the Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan (2007–2020)	6 May 2019[16]
Dania Espaeva (Campaign)		Ak Zhol		Member of the Mazhilis (2016–present)	4 May 2019[17]
Amirjan Qosanov (Campaign)		Ult Tagdyry		Journalist	6 May 2019[18]
Toleutai Raqymbekov (Campaign)		Auyl		Chairman of the Board of the National Agrarian Scientific and Educational Center (2019–present) Vice Minister of Agriculture (2017)	6 May 2019[19]
Amangeldi Taspihov (Campaign)		Federation of Trade Unions of Kazakhstan		Chairman of the Territorial Association of Trade Unions of West Kazakhstan Region Member of the Mazhilis (2004–2007)	4 May 2019[20]
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (Campaign)		Nur Otan		President of Kazakhstan (2019–present) Chairman of the Senate of Kazakhstan (2007–2011 and 2013–2019) Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva (2011–2013) Minister of Foreign Affairs (2002–2007) Prime Minister of Kazakhstan (1999–2002)	3 May 2019[21]
Sadibek Tügel (Campaign)		Uly Dala Qyrandary		First Vice President of the Association of National Sports of Kazakhstan President of the Equestrian Federation of Kazakhstan Chairman of Uly Dala Qyrandary (2011–present)	3 May 2019[20]

Unsuccessful nominees

• Talgat Yergaliyev (Union of Builders of Kazakhstan), a former Member of the Mazhilis.[22][23] Withdrew his candidacy.
• Jumatai Aliyev (Halyk Demografiyasy), Rector of Central Asian University.[24][25] Rejected due to a failed Kazakh language test.[15]

Campaign

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

Tokayev became an acting president after Nazarbayev resigned from office on 20 March 2019. As a result, early elections were announced on 9 April. He was nominated by the Nur Otan on 23 April to be a presidential candidate and became registered on 3 May. Tokayev sought for continuation of Nazarbayev's policies in strengthening the nation, continuing peace, improving lives of citizens, and entering Kazakhstan into the top 30 most developed nations.[26]

Tokayev was mocked on social media for the overuse of modification of his official photos, erasing his wrinkles and double chin.[27][28][29]

Amirjan Qosanov

Qosanov became a registered candidate on 6 May 2019 of the Ult Tagdyry political movement, existing since 2005. He ran on a platform in fighting against corruption, reducing the powers of a president, allowing direct elections of akims, making Kazakh economy less dependent on raw resources, and prohibiting the construction of nuclear power plants.[30] Qosanov was considered as the only opposition in the race to where he criticized the government actions.[31]

Despite his campaign, he was criticized by other opposition groups for being compromised by the government and instead called for boycott in the polls.[32] It was widely expected that Qosanov wouldn't win the election and instead legitimize it.[33]

Dania Espaeva

On 24 April 2019, Espaeva was nominated to be a presidential candidate for the Ak Zhol party. She became registered on 3 May, making her the first female in Kazakhstan's history to be on a ballot.[34] Espaeva ran a pro-business platform where she promoted competition and entrepreneurship.[35] She called for a reduction in banking interest rates, end in de-offshorization and tax rates for important industries such as in mechanical engineering as well as creation of new industries in rural areas.[36]

Toleutai Raqymbekov

Raqymbekov was nominated by the Auyl People's Democratic Patriotic Party on 25 April 2019 to be the presidential candidate in which he was registered for on 6 May 2019.[37][38] He underlined the issue in Kazakhstan's society where young people are forced to leave villages and move into the cities, creating an unequal composition of the country's population between rural and urban areas.[39] Raqymbekov mostly campaigned for rural issues and proposed solution in improving agricultural economy by which would help Kazakhstan to compete worldwide with its important exports and noting it would create more jobs in the villages by attracting young specialists and prevent the migration into cities.[40]

Amangeldi Taspihov

The Federation of Trade Unions of Kazakhstan for the first time nominated Taspihov as candidate for the presidential elections on 24 April 2019 and became registered on 4 May 2019.[41][42] Taspihov sought to earn support from middle class by campaigning for safe working conditions, labor rights protections and decent living wages for people earning average. He also called for regulation in the job market by having any foreign worker's job whose visa stay has expired by replace by Kazakhstani citizen as well as improvements in education system to train new specialists to work without needing migrant workers. Taspihov took Auyl nominee Toleutai Raqymbekov's similar stance in creating more jobs in rural areas to prevent the outflow of the population.[43]

Jambyl Ahmetbekov

Ahmetbekov who previously participated in the 2011 presidential election was nominated again by the Communist People's Party in presidential race on 26 April 2019 .[44] The Central Election Commission officially registered him on 6 May 2019.[45] Ahmetbekov campaigned through populist approach by calling prosecution of oligarchs living abroad, mainly referring to exiled Kazakh banker Mukhtar Ablyazov which he accused of stealing government's budget that's used to fund social services.[46] He also called for higher taxes on the rich and an end to poverty. Ahmetbekov criticized westernization, claiming it brought harm to Kazakhstan's society such as pornography and gambling addiction.[47] In combating the situation, Ahmetbekov proposed for Kazakhstan's own version of Facebook in which certain deemed "harming content" would be regulated.[48]

Sadibek Tügel

Tügel became the first candidate on 22 April 2019 to nominate himself for the Uly Dala Qyrandary, a public organization that he has led since 2011.[49] He became registered on 3 May 2019.[50] Tügel based his campaign on conservatism where talked about the preservation of nation's values and traditions by rejecting western culture.[51] He proposed in implementing a ban on night clubs and marriage to foreigners. Tügel discussed the issues of Kazakhstan's demographics which he obliged for young people aged under 25 to start families.[52][53] In political issues, he called for an end in corruption, fixation in unemployment, direct elections of akims, death penalty for corrupt officials, nationalization of resources, as well as a referendum for new constitution.[54]

Debates

On 14 May 2019, a televised debate was announced between the candidates.[55] It was held on 29 May and was broadcast live on the Khabar TV channel.[56] The cost of the event amounted to 41 million tenge.[57]

Four presidential candidates: Jambyl Ahmetbekov, Amirjan Qosanov, Amangeldi Taspihov and Sadibek Tügel participated in the debates and the rest of the three candidates were represented by Azat Peruashev for Dania Espaeva, Äli Bektaev for Toleutai Raqymbekov, and Mäulen Äşimbaev for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.[58] The debate was divided into three rounds. In the first round, all participants were asked about the development of the education system in Kazakhstan, in the second round about social modernization of Kazakhstan, and in the third round, the candidates were allowed to ask questions to two other participants in the debate.[59]

Controversies

2019 voting ballot for the candidates

Preparations

As part of the collection of signatures by candidates, violations were observed. In one of the higher educational institutions, it was proposed to sign the sheets on which the candidate's data were not indicated.[60] According to the legislation of Kazakhstan, it is prohibited to conduct polls that do not meet the requirements. Such violations include conducting them on social media, of which two citizens were fined for.[61]

Invitations

A few days before the elections, all residents of the Republic of Kazakhstan, according to the rules, should have received from the city and regional election commissions a personal paper invitation to the "Presidential Election-2019" with the name of the voter, address and number of the polling station. However, for unknown reasons, many residents of the largest city in the country Almaty did not receive their invitations to the elections for the first time in the entire history of elections.

Election Day

During the Election Day, the Prosecutor General's Office identified 19 revealed violations, and initiated cases of an administrative offense. Of these, 12 violations were related to the issuance of ballots by a member of a precinct election commission to citizens for voting for other persons, 6 violations were related to the fact that some voters wanted to vote instead of another voter.[62][63] Independent observers and journalists recorded numerous election violations such as stuffing, use of disappearing ink, and voting for other people on video.[64]

Observation

The protocol that was photographed by an international observer from Russia at the 32nd voting precinct in Aktau showing Amirjan Qosanov with 60% (414 votes), and the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at 35% (245 votes)

As of 6 May 2019, several election observation missions have declared their interest. Among them are the CIS, the Interparliamentary Assembly of the CIS Member States, Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.[65]

On 15 May, for observers from the NGO's of Almaty and 12 ethnocultural centers of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan, students of city universities, training was conducted on the basis of the civil platform Amanat. In total, it is planned to train at least 10 thousand independent observers under this program.[66]

As of 31 May, the number of observers from international organizations and foreign states is 967 people, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accredited 227 foreign correspondents from more than 40 countries of the world.[67][68]

During the presidential elections, 19 violations were revealed.[63]

OSCE

On 8 May 2019, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mission to observe the presidential elections in Kazakhstan was opened. The team of observers, according to the head of the mission, Urszula Gacek, included experts from Great Britain, Spain, Germany, Belarus, Poland, who would work not only before the elections, but also after. A total of 22 long-term observers were registered in the mission.[69]

According to the mission's interim report on 24 May, the election campaign is subtle and limited to campaign posters and billboards. Campaigning is strictly regulated and candidates can hold public meetings or events only with the permission of local authorities, an application for which must be submitted 10 days before the planned event.[70]

CIS

On 20 May 2019, the mission of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was opened. According to the CIS executive secretary, Viktor Guminsky, it was assumed that the mission from the CIS will include about 300 observers. They will represent all the countries of the commonwealth. To date, about 90 representatives of the Commonwealth countries have already applied for accreditation. These applications continue to come in. So far, applications have been officially received from four countries: Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, as well as from the IPA CIS. Long-term observers will work with about 20 people from the diplomatic corps accredited in Nur-Sultan, as well as the CIS executive committee.[71]

Results

Candidate		Party	Votes	%
	Kassym-Jomart Tokayev	Nur Otan	6,539,715	70.96
	Amirjan Qosanov	Ult Tagdyry	1,495,401	16.23
	Dania Espaeva	Ak Zhol Democratic Party	465,714	5.05
	Toleutai Raqymbekov	Auyl People's Democratic Patriotic Party	280,451	3.04
	Amangeldi Taspihov	Federation of Trade Unions	182,898	1.98
	Jambyl Ahmetbekov	Communist People's Party	167,649	1.82
	Sadibek Tügel	Uly Dala Qyrandary	84,582	0.92
Total			9,216,410	100.00
Valid votes			9,216,410	99.38
Invalid/blank votes			57,700	0.62
Total votes			9,274,110	100.00
Registered voters/turnout			11,960,364	77.54
Source: CEC

Reactions

Protests

Kazakh police detaining a protester in Almaty, 9 June 2019

Protests broke out in the cities of Nur-Sultan and Almaty on 9 June 2019. The protest itself was organized by a banned opposition group the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan which is led by a former, now-exiled Kazakh banker Mukhtar Ablyazov.[72] The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that in Nur-Sultan, the protesters used throwing stones, objects that came to hand, and used pepper spray, which caused three police officers to be injured.[73] According to official reports, the units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the police and the National Guard took measures to ensure public safety and law and order, the squares and streets were cleared of protesters by dispersal and detentions.[74] According to the statement of the First Deputy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Marat Kojaev, on 9 June, during the protests, about 500 people were detained among which were journalists.[75][76]

Demonstrators in Astana Square, 9 June 2019

On 10 June, at an unauthorized protest, Rinat Zaitov, a Kazakh musician and poet who was a supporter of Amirjan Qosanov, was detained in Almaty, where his speech was filmed by Channel 31, who also recorded his arrest on video. Soon after the legal interview, Zaitov was allowed to go home. However, late in the evening, in front of the building of the police department, citizens gathered in search of Zaitov and demanded his release. After they were informed that Zaitov was at home, they did not want to leave. At the request of law enforcement agencies, Zaitov was taken from home at night to the gathering place of citizens, where he urged people not to violate the law by complying with the legal requirements of law enforcement officers. Zaitov asked the crowd to go home and not succumb to the provocations. The remaining protesters then held a march on Töle Bi Street which was accompanied by drivers honking their horns, causing an overflow in traffic. In response to the situation, law enforcement including the riot police closed off the street and conducted arrests.[77] One officer was hit by car in front of the Sayran Bus Station who suffered a closed fracture of the right shin tibia with displacement. The driver was eventually caught and detained.[78] In the Alatau District of the city, a group of drunken people who were later charged with vandalism damaged a police car by throwing stones at it.[78] A Tengrinews journalist Shoqan Alhabaev was knocked to the ground and hit several times by the officers.[79] Other protesters, fleeing the pursuing police, hid in residential areas.[80] According to the adviser of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Nurdilda Oraz, about 200 people were detained, in which 150 of them were brought to justice.[81] President-elect Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called on the protesters to dialogue.[82]

By 18 June, there were reports of the detainees of about 4,000 people in all cities of Kazakhstan.[83] The operator of the online news Vlast.kz Yekaterina Suvorova, the journalist of Azattyq Pyotr Trotsenko and political scientist Dimash Aljanov, who worked at the NGO Center for Legal Policy Research, were arrested. British journalist Chris Rickleton, who worked for Agence France-Presse, said on Twitter that he was also detained. Rickleton and his colleague spent two hours at the local police department before Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vasilenko intervened. He called the journalists and apologized, after which they were released.[72]

Response by authorities

According to the Kazakh government, the protests were caused by attempts to destabilize the social situation on the part of radical elements by organizing and conducting unauthorized actions.[84] The authorities considered the protest actions agitated by foreign "leaders of extremist organizations", referring mainly to the former Kazakh politician and opposition leader Mukhtar Ablyazov and his movement Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, which was declared as an extremist organization in March 2018.[85] Ablyazov was the first to call for boycott in the election and instead hold a protest.[72] In 2009, the Kazakh authorities charged Ablyazov with abuse and fraud and removed him from his post as head of BTA Bank, causing him to flee the country and was eventually convicted in absentee in the country.[86]

Protesters' response

The protesters considered the elections to be unfair and undemocratic, and their results were predetermined. They also protested against the change in the name of the capital and the current government, which, in their opinion, is still in the hands of ex-President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and that his successor Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is only his “political puppet”.[72] Ablyazov's supporters believed that the falsely accused him of fraud in order to arrest him due to political reasons and why his movement was declared as illegal in the country.[85]

International observers

Observers from the CIS noted that they did not see any violations of the procedure for holding elections, that the elections were held calmly, orderly and freely. CIS observers generally praised the elections.[87] International observers from the OSCE took the opposite side. In their opinion, the elections did not demonstrate a democratic authenticity with reported cases of ballot stuffing and that Kazakhstan still needs significant political, social and legal reforms to strengthen democracy, human rights and freedoms, they stated that they are always ready to cooperate with Kazakhstan for carrying out such actions.[88] The observers from the CIS stated that they did not observe any protest actions and detentions, while the OSCE, on the contrary, watched the protests and considered the actions of the Kazakh authorities to be clear violations of the foundations of freedom and democracy and disrespect for their own people. The OSCE observers stayed in Kazakhstan for another week due to concerns about the fate of the protesters.

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