2020 New Zealand cannabis referendum

The 2020 New Zealand cannabis referendum was a non-binding referendum held on 17 October 2020 in conjunction with the 2020 general election and a euthanasia referendum, on the question of whether to legalise the sale, use, possession and production of cannabis.[1][2][3] The form of the referendum was a vote for or against the proposed "Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill".[4] Preliminary results for the referendum were released by the Electoral Commission on 30 October 2020. The official results were released on 6 November 2020 with 50.7% of voters opposing legalisation and 48.4% in support out of all votes cast.[5]

2020 New Zealand cannabis referendum
17 October 2020
Do you support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill?
LocationNew Zealand
Results
Response
 Votes %
Yes 1,406,973 48.83%
No 1,474,635 51.17%
Valid votes 2,881,608 99.09%
Invalid or blank votes 26,463 0.91%
Total votes 2,908,071 100.00%
Yes and No percentages listed here are exclusive of invalid or blank votes.

The results of the cannabis referendum would not have affected the legal status of medicinal cannabis and hemp production, both of which are already legal.[6] They would also not have affected laws regarding driving under the influence of drugs including cannabis, which remains illegal, or workplace health and safety issues (e.g. being under the influence of cannabis at work).[2]

Background

Cannabis has been illegal in New Zealand since 1927.[7] Historically, neither of the two biggest political parties in New Zealand, Labour or National have been willing to decriminalise or legalise cannabis.[8] The Green Party, which has advocated for drug law reform for many years, secured a commitment to hold a referendum after the 2017 election as part of its confidence and supply agreement with Labour.[9][10][11] This agreement followed statements made by the Green Party in December 2016, that if it formed a government in the 2017 election it would legalise the personal production and possession of cannabis for personal use.[12][13][14]

In May 2019, a background cabinet paper outlining the options that had been considered for the referendum and the draft legislation was released.[15][16][17] The referendum was announced and defended as "binding" by prime minister Jacinda Ardern and justice minister Andrew Little, but as it would not be "self-executing," the bill would still have had to pass a vote in parliament if the referendum returned a "yes" result.[18][1]

Current laws
See also: Cannabis in New Zealand

Possession of any amount of cannabis is currently illegal in New Zealand. Cannabis use is currently controlled under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975 and the maximum sentence for possession of cannabis is 3 months' imprisonment or a $500 fine; although there is a presumption against imprisonment.[19] The presumption of supply threshold is 28 grams or 100 joints; above this threshold it is presumed any cannabis possessed is for supply. Cultivation of cannabis carries a maximum penalty of 7 years' imprisonment, while dealing of cannabis carries a maximum penalty of 8 years' imprisonment.[20] Per the tariff case R v Terewi [1999], cultivating cannabis for personal use warrants a community sentence or, if there are aggravating factors, a short-term prison sentence.[21]

Prohibition is ineffective

The New Zealand Drug Foundation says that 80% of New Zealanders have tried cannabis by age 21, but only 10% of the population become heavy users.[22] Kiwis consume around 74 tonnes of cannabis a year, so clearly, the current law doesn't stop people using it. Each year, the Police spend over 330,000 hours on cannabis enforcement which costs the taxpayer almost $200 million. Legalisation would free up Police to focus on more serious drug crimes.[23]

Disproportionate impact on Māori

At the moment, there is a significant underground market for cannabis and prohibition disproportionately criminalizes Māori. Māori are three times more likely to get a cannabis conviction than non-Māori for the same level of cannabis use, and are twice as likely as non-Māori to suffer a substance use disorder.[24] Māori also find it harder to access health and treatment services. Legalisation would largely eliminate the black market for cannabis and reduce the number of young Māori receiving convictions. The Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill would have addressed some of these harms, by enabling Māori participation in a regulated legal market, and providing for Māori representation on the body charged with developing national cannabis policy. 79% of Māori supported the Bill.[25]

Employment & tax intake

If legalised, the cannabis industry could employ about 5000 people and allow the government to regulate and tax the sale and distribution.[7] Studies conducted by BERL indicate the annual tax intake from cannabis, if it was legalised, would be more than $1 billion.[26] This could be put into health (including more addiction treatment facilities), schools, education programmes and other infrastructure that will benefit all New Zealanders.[23]

Impact on health

Cannabis smoke irritates the lungs, and people who smoke it frequently can have the similar breathing problems to those who smoke tobacco. These problems include daily cough and phlegm, more frequent lung illness, and a higher risk of lung infections. A succession of clinical studies have found it increases the risk of chronic bronchitis, inflammation of the throat, and impaired immune function.[27] However, it has not been shown to cause lung cancer.[28]

Risk of psychosis

Some studies have found that cannabis contributes to depression, although better-quality studies have found cannabis use is more likely to increase the risk of psychosis among vulnerable individuals more than the risk of depression or anxiety.[29] However, cannabis does not cause schizophrenia or psychosis,[30] but interacts with pre-existing genetic and environmental factors that can lead to early schizophrenia. In other words, it may precipitate schizophrenia in individuals who are vulnerable because of a personal or family history of schizophrenia.[31]

The age at which teenagers start using cannabis is an important factor. Frequent use in early teens doubles the risk of developing schizophrenia in the future.[30] Opponents of legalisation are concerned that making cannabis legal might encourage more people, especially young people, to use it.[7]

Impact on brain development

Cannabis can also affect brain development in teenagers. When young people begin using marijuana, it may impair thinking, memory, and learning functions and impedes the development of neural connections between the areas necessary for these functions. A study from New Zealand, in conjunction with Duke University, found that heavy use by teens led to an average loss of 8 IQ points between ages 13 and 38. Even if these individuals quit as adults, those lost mental abilities didn't fully return. Those who started smoking cannabis as adults didn't show notable IQ declines.[32]

Concerns have also been raised that if more people start smoking it, this might lead to more road accidents and workplace injuries.

For medical use

Approved cannabis-based pharmaceuticals can be prescribed by a specialist doctor, but requires patients to meet strict criteria. As of April 2016, only Sativex is approved for use in New Zealand; it is not subsidised, so patients must pay the full retail cost.[33] However, the medicinal cannabis scheme significantly modifies the medical access to psychoactive cannabis products.[34][35][36] Auditing of medicinal cannabis products under the scheme opened in April 2020. As of 23 July 2020 products have not yet been certified for minimum quality standards but approvals are expected within the next few months.[37] A list of currently approved psychoactive medicinal products is available on the Ministry of health website.[38]

Terminally ill patients have a legal defence against prosecution for possessing and consuming cannabis since the passing of the Misuse of Drugs (Medicinal Cannabis) Amendment Act in December 2018.[39][40]

Referendum structure
A sample ballot for the 2020 referenda.

In May 2020 the final legislation was made available and it was confirmed that the question put to voters would be:[41][42] Do you support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill?

The two options were:

  • "Yes, I support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill" and
  • "No, I do not support the proposed Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill".

Proposed legislation

If passed into law, the proposed "Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill" would have served as the new regulatory framework for the production, sale, purchase and consumption of non-medical cannabis in New Zealand. A new regulatory body, the Cannabis Regulatory Authority would have been established with the primary objectives of promoting the well-being of New Zealanders, reducing cannabis-related harm and reducing the overall use of cannabis over time.[43]

The bill includes provisions for the following:

  • Minimum purchase and possession age of 20 years old.
  • Allowing an eligible person to purchase and possess up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) per day.
  • Allowing each eligible person to grow up to two cannabis plants for personal use on their own property, up to a maximum of four plants per household.
  • A ban on marketing and advertising cannabis products
  • Requirement to include harm minimisation messaging on cannabis products
  • Confining use to private homes and licensed premises, and only in compliance with the Smoke-free Environments Act 1990.
  • Limiting the sale of recreational cannabis to physical stores (i.e. no remote or online sales)
  • Control over the potency of recreational cannabis being sold
  • State licensing regime for recreational cannabis
  • Applying an excise tax and a harm-reduction levy to cannabis products (in addition to the 15% GST which applies to all goods sold in New Zealand)
  • Establishing the Cannabis Regulatory Authority to license and authorise supply

The full text of the bill is available, along with a guide, from the New Zealand government's referendums website.[4][44]

Public opinion

Many polling organisations ask New Zealanders questions related to cannabis legislation. The results have been inconsistent, with "different companies producing wildly different results".[45] However, every poll has shown a clear split along age lines. Voters aged 18 to 29, Green and Labour party supporters and Māori people were more likely to support cannabis legalisation, while voters aged 50 and over and National party supporters were more likely to oppose cannabis legalisation.[46]

Overall, support for decriminalisation reached a peak of around 65% three years before the referendum,[47][48][49] but declined from 54% in February 2020[50] to around 45% in polls taken a month or so before the referendum. A 2020 study of Twitter users who tweeted about cannabis between July 2009 to August 2020 found that 62% had a positive view of cannabis, with tweets in 2020 having a slightly higher proportion of positive views on cannabis (65.3%), while 53.5% of those who talked about the cannabis referendum were in support of the bill.[51]

Most polling conducted prior to September 2020 asked about opinions on the legalisation of cannabis for personal use, or in some cases, about government control of use and sale of cannabis, rather than about the Legalisation and Control Bill, which was released for public consultation in May 2020. Polls asking about the specific bill showed mixed opinion, from 35% for / 53% against to 49% for / 45% against.[52][53]

Opinion poll numbers tend to trend higher around support for medicinal use of cannabis.[48] When voting age New Zealanders were asked in July 2017 if they supported "growing and/or using cannabis for medical reasons if you have a terminal illness", 59% responded that it should be legal, 22% supported decriminalisation, while 15% responded it should be illegal. However, when they were asked their thoughts on "Possessing a small amount of cannabis for personal use", 37% responded that it should be decriminalised, 31% responded that it should be illegal, and 28% responded that it should be fully legal.[48]

Polling
Summary of poll results given below. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 1).
Date Polling organisation Sample size For Against Undecided Lead
2–17 Jul 2018 Curia Market Research 943494732
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0064641125
10–26 Oct 2018 Horizon Research 99560241636
3–17 Mar 2019 Research New Zealand 1,22029491820
9 May 2019 Horizon Research 1,16152371115
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0023952813
3–4 Aug 2019 Horizon Research 1,0033947148
11–17 Nov 2019 Horizon Research 1,19948381410
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006434976
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0043951912
21–26 Feb 2020 Horizon Research 1,986544519
6–9 Mar 2020 Research New Zealand 1,00043331910
10–14 Jun 2020 Horizon Research 1,5935643–13
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0074049119
9–13 Jul 2020 Research New Zealand 1,0124339184
20–23 Aug 2020 Research New Zealand 1,0033946157
20–25 Aug 2020 Horizon Research 1,30049.549.51Tie
17–21 Sep 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,00835531118
24–28 Sep 2020 Horizon Research 1,4815247–5
22 Sep – 5 Oct 2020 UMR Research 1,129494564
2–4 Oct 2020 Research New Zealand 1,0024640146
10–14 Oct 2020 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,0054151810

Campaigning and endorsements

The rules regarding campaigning for the referendum are generally the same as for the general election. All advertisements must carry a promoter statement, stating the name and physical address of the promoter. It is illegal to campaign on polling day, or within a 10-metre radius of an advance polling booth. Nine organisations registered as third-party promoters (both for and against) for the cannabis referendum.[54]

During the regulated period, which runs from 18 August to 16 October 2020, promoters have to declare their campaign expenses and there are limits on how much they may spend on referendum campaigning. The maximum expense limit is $338,000 per referendum for those promoters registered with the Electoral Commission, and $13,600 per referendum for unregistered promoters.[55]

Individuals
  • Israel Adesanya believes anti-cannabis rhetoric is the "result of generations of unjust persecution, where the evils of alcohol have somehow escaped the same judicial restrictions and left cannabis the victim of a double standard".[56]
  • Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand (1999–2008) says Prof David Nutt, former chair of the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs in Britain, has found "cannabis is immensely less harmful to those who use it, and to others, than is alcohol".[57][58]
  • Dr Hinemoa Elder says "International evidence is clear that countries with stricter drug laws and policies do not have lower rates of substance use. These laws make people into criminals." [59][60][61]
  • Andrew Little, Labour Party MP and former Minister of Justice[62]
  • Diane Robertson[63]
  • Chlöe Swarbrick, Green Party MP. "We are not debating whether to invent cannabis or not... All of the problems that prohibitionists cite are currently happening under the status quo... We have an opportunity to change that by putting in place sensible regulations."[64][65]
  • Tiki Taane[66]
  • Topp Twins[67]
  • Sam Neill "Let's all get sensible and finally legalise marijuana, for heaven's sake. Decriminalise it, regulate it, tax it ..." [68]
  • Paul Wieland, consultant anesthetist at Southland hospital. “If you look at the harm that is caused by alcohol to the individual and to society as a whole, and compare that to the potential harm caused by cannabis, then cannabis is the far more benign substance.”[66]

Organisations
  • The Helen Clark Foundation[69] In September 2019, the Foundation issued a 15 page report analysing the impact of the current law and supporting legalisation. The Trust points out that "Around the world there is a steady shift away from the ‘war on drugs’-style prohibitionist approach which seeks to deter drug use through criminal penalties."[70]
  • New Zealand Drug Foundation. "590,000 New Zealanders used cannabis last year. Because cannabis is illegal, we have no control over it right now. Our current law is clearly not working."[71]
  • NORML New Zealand[72]
  • Make It Legal Campaign. "Studies show that in countries and states that have legalised cannabis, reported use has not in general gone up as a result. Canada is especially helpful to study as its regulations are most similar to what NZ will introduce when the referendum bill passes. Older males do seem to use it a little more but use by young people seems to have declined".[73]
  • JustSpeak, a youth-focused group advocating for criminal justice reforms, said "its focus on the referendum was around treating cannabis as a health issue, not a criminal issue".[74]
  • ActionStation Aotearoa one of the six groups backing the Health Not Handcuffs[75] campaign.[74]
  • Victoria University of Wellington Students Association. VUWSA endorsed a Yes vote after 75 per cent of students voted in favour in the annual association referendum.[74]

Political parties
  • Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party[76]
  • Green Party posed this question on their website: "Do we want to keep pouring millions of dollars in public resources into policing prohibition, branding nearly 4,000 New Zealanders per year with low level cannabis convictions, and denying them the grown-up, practical solution of regulation?" Chloe Swarbrick said: “This final bill sets out in detail how we regulate cannabis for healthier communities: this is an evidence-based, harm-reduction approach, to control access and produce better justice and mental health outcomes across Aotearoa.”[65]
  • The Opportunities Party. Their policy says: "Currently, the law doesn't treat all drugs consistently. Some drugs like alcohol cause more harm than cannabis does, yet they are legal and lightly regulated".[77]

Individuals
  • Nick Smith, National Party MP. Dr Smith fears "adding it into the mix of what's already legal will compound New Zealand's quite serious problems with mental health and drug driving".[64][78]
  • John Key, former Prime Minister of New Zealand (2008–2016) said "it was a load of junk to think legalising marijuana would see the end of gangs".[79]
  • Paula Bennett, former Deputy Prime Minister of New Zealand (2016–17). "I'm now in the 'no' and it's because of the unknown."[80]
  • Jo Luxton, Labour Party candidate for Rangitata said she will not support the cannabis referendum due to her own personal experience in a relationship with someone who abused the drug.[81]

Organisations
  • While the New Zealand Medical Association initially announced its opposition to the legislation, controversy around a lack of membership consultation led the board to retract their public stance.[82][83]
  • Family First New Zealand “Families simply don't want marijuana plants being grown next door by dope dealers in view of the children, tinnie houses on street corners and pot shops in local shopping areas, or marijuana being disguised as lollies and edibles as has happened overseas."[84]
  • The Salvation Army agrees with the need for decriminalisation but did not support the legalisation of cannabis as proposed in the referendum. If the No vote won, the Army would still like to see criminal sanctions removed for casual use of cannabis.[85]
  • Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM) New Zealand is a collective of more than 25 groups, mostly religious, including the NZ Christian Network, the New Zealand Muslims Association, and Foundation for a Drug-Free World, a division of the Church of Scientology.[54] Their website lists "20 reasons to vote no", one of which is "we've been lied to before".[86]

Political parties
  • New Conservative Party “This is a mind altering drug. How can we say to kids: Stop smoking cigarettes, they are bad for you, but you can smoke cannabis...”[87]

Results
Results of the 2020 cannabis referendum

Official results for the general election and referendums were released on 6 November 2020.[88] The number opposed to decriminalisation was 50.7% with 48.4% in favour.[88] Preliminary results for the referendums were released by the Electoral Commission on 30 October 2020. Those results had 53.5% of people opposed to the legislation with 46.5% in support.[89] Around 480,000 special votes were counted later reducing the percentage opposed to 50.7%.[88]

Unlike the general election, a preliminary count for the cannabis and euthanasia referendums was not completed on election night (17 October). All voting papers, counterfoils and electoral rolls were returned to the electorate's returning officer for counting. During the count, the returning officer approved and counted any special votes, and compiled a master electoral roll to ensure no-one voted more than once.[90] Special votes include votes from those who enrolled after the deadline of 13 September, those who voted outside their electorate (including overseas votes), voters in hospital or prison, and those voters enrolled on the unpublished roll.[91] To simplify processing and counting, overseas votes were sent to and counted at the Electoral Commission's central processing centre in Wellington.[92]

Official results of the New Zealand cannabis referendum, 17 October 2020[93]
Option Votes
Num. %
Y Yes 1,406,973 48.38
N No 1,474,635 50.71
Valid votes cast 2,881,608 99.09
Informal votes 26,463 0.91
Total votes cast 2,908,071 100.00
Registered voters and turnout 3,549,564 82.24

By polling place location

As each polling place had only one ballot box for ordinary referendum votes, ordinary votes were broken down by the general electorate where the polling place was located. Special votes were broken down by electorate. Both ordinary and special votes have been combined in the following table.[94]

Electorate Y Yes N No Informal Turnout
Num. % Num %
Auckland Central 25,643 67.98 12,081 32.02 272
Banks Peninsula 24,069 52.57 21,978 47.73 339
Bay of Plenty 21,410 46.51 24,625 53.49 295
Botany 13,053 33.21 26,249 66.79 430
Christchurch Central 24,911 54.49 20,805 45.51 415
Christchurch East 26,157 54.78 21,595 45.22 408
Coromandel 21,712 45.35 26,169 54.65 319
Dunedin 32,027 63.49 18,414 36.51 318
East Coast 27,665 52.29 25,238 47.71 424
East Coast Bays 18,105 41.09 25,958 58.91 290
Epsom 21,691 48.79 22,766 51.21 433
Hamilton East 21,975 47.11 24,670 52.89 424
Hamilton West 22,970 49.67 23,271 50.33 455
Hutt South 26,365 52.34 24,009 47.66 579
Ilam 19,522 45.87 42,562 54.13 374
Invercargill 19,058 45.67 22,674 54.33 284
Kaikoura 17,939 41.94 24,831 58.06 282
Kaipara ki Mahurangi 24,040 48.03 26,015 51.97 379
Kelston 16,840 51.65 15,767 48.35 465
Mana 21,316 53.56 18,484 46.14 417
Māngere 12,491 40.55 18,316 59.45 622
Manurewa 16,612 41.45 19,920 58.55 822
Maungakiekie 18,466 48.11 19,920 51.89 475
Mount Albert 27,274 63.21 15,871 36.79 373
Mount Roskill 16,167 42.12 22,214 57.88 714
Napier 22,103 48.04 23,902 51.96 365
Nelson 24,744 50.41 24,345 49.59 473
New Lynn 20,874 51.05 20,017 48.95 568
New Plymouth 23,178 48.79 24,328 51.21 316
North Shore 19,199 45.21 23,270 54.79 275
Northcote 20,760 50.39 20,436 49.61 402
Northland 27,660 53.61 23,937 46.39 400
Ōhāriu 21,542 53.03 19,077 46.97 345
Ōtaki 24,865 48.16 26,761 51.84 446
Pakuranga 14,461 36.14 25,550 63.86 405
Palmerston North 19,907 48.25 21,351 51.75 358
Panmure-Ōtāhuhu 13,633 43.34 17,821 56.66 776
Papakura 17,816 42.74 23,869 57.26 414
Port Waikato 18,337 42.93 24,337 57.07 361
Rangitata 18,514 40.68 26,994 59.32 374
Rangitīkei 20,350 45.56 24,312 54.44 282
Remutaka 20,654 49.78 20,835 50.22 411
Rongotai 28,398 66.98 13,998 33.02 566
Rotorua 22,357 49.21 23,078 50.79 385
Selwyn 16,266 40.80 23,061 59.20 201
Southland 18,771 46.60 21,506 53.40 240
Taieri 20,572 47.31 43,485 52.69 315
Takanini 11,924 39.11 18,565 60.89 544
Tāmaki 18,572 43.63 23,992 56.37 357
Taranaki-King Country 17,660 43.95 22,525 56.05 244
Taupō 21,844 43.86 27,960 56.14 333
Tauranga 22,171 43.15 29,214 56.85 420
Te Atatū 20,118 46.35 23,291 53.65 538
Tukituki 20,847 46.49 23,991 53.51 379
Upper Harbour 16,048 43.96 20,461 56.04 333
Waikato 16,043 42.53 21,676 57.47 287
Waimakariri 18,772 41.30 26,679 58.70 304
Wairarapa 22,309 46.36 25,817 53.64 324
Waitaki 19,162 45.05 23,372 54.95 295
Wellington Central 44,712 73.35 16,247 26.65 368
West Coast-Tasman 20,793 51.10 19,901 48.90 308
Whanganui 21,460 47.67 23,556 52.33 344
Whangaparāoa 18,207 41.99 25,156 58.01 227
Whangārei 26,385 51.20 25,150 48.80 430
Wigram 21,110 47.62 23,222 52.38 515
Hauraki-Waikato 5,367 78.66 1,456 21.34 100
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 4,613 80.58 1,112 19.42 86
Tāmaki Makaurau 5,572 79.81 1,410 20.19 104
Te Tai Hauāuru 5,127 81.08 1,196 18.92 81
Te Tai Tokerau 5,402 79.59 1,385 20.41 81
Te Tai Tonga 5,189 82.88 1,072 17.12 71
Waiariki 5,127 77.11 1,522 22.89 104
Total 1,406,973 48.83 1,474,635 51.17 26,463

Public response

In response to the release of the preliminary results on 31 October, Green Party Member of Parliament Chlöe Swarbrick, a vocal campaigner for drug reform, vowed to continue the fight for decriminalising cannabis. She criticised the "Say Nope to Dope" campaign for allegedly spreading misinformation about drug reform.[95] She also labelled as hypocrites the majority of parliamentarians, who refused to publicly state they supported decriminalisation.[96] Jacinda Ardern had, since the election, acknowledged she had voted in favour of legalising cannabis during the referendum, but had explicitly not endorsed a Yes or a No vote for the cannabis bill.[97]

Several "No" campaigners welcomed the preliminary result. National MP Nick Smith described the result as a victory for "common sense." Family First Director Bob McCoskrie of the "Say Nope to Dope" campaign said that he was "pretty stoked" with the referendum results, and fellow activist Aaron Ironside said that he was happy that New Zealand younger people would not be enlisted in a "social experiment."[97]

Writing on Stuff, Damien Grant points out that previous governments have ignored referendum results and the new Labour Government should do the same. He says: "Not only is the idea that the electorate should decide any particular issue impracticable, the closeness of the cannabis vote means that the prohibition of the drug is now unworkable" and argues that Parliament should, "consider the ethical merits of subjecting the minority of otherwise law-abiding citizens to criminal sanctions for smoking dried leaves at the behest of a puritan majority".[98]

Speculation on outcome

Many public figures who supported the bill, and a vote for Yes, were surprised that the referendum did not pass in favour of the bill. Speculation about what caused this outcome included a lack of endorsement from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and campaigning from those who opposed the bill—including claims of "misinformation," as well as an early opposition message from the New Zealand Medical Association.

Associate Professor of Criminology, Dr Fiona Hutton, said the advertisements promoted by the No campaign were based on outdated moralised notions about people who use drugs, influenced by rightwing religious groups from the US: "The playing field was never level, (and) that absolutely fantastic academics, community groups, organisations and campaigners... sought to educate, to inform, to circulate evidence, to give people clear and balanced information, fought to get their voices heard amongst swirling misinformation and misdirection".[99]

Opposition from NZMA

One factor may have been a statement opposing decriminalisation by the New Zealand Medical Association, published on 31 July 2020.[100] The NZMA stated that "cannabis is a harmful drug that causes a range of health and social harms at the individual and community level".[101]

It was subsequently revealed that the NZMA relied on outdated information and had not consulted any of its 5,000 doctors before making this statement public. Many GPs were upset by this and subsequently, more than 100 doctors publicly supported cannabis legalisation. Dr Emma Clare said many doctors thought the referendum would pass, and so did not speak up about the NZMA's anti legislation stance.[102] The NZMA was also criticised by former Prime Minister Helen Clark, who said it had given "a false impression to voters of what doctors think". Less than two weeks before election day, when early voting had been going on for over a week, the NZMA sent a letter of apology to its members which said: "The NZMA will have no position regarding the cannabis referendum."[103][82][83]

Lack of support from Jacinda Ardern

Another possible factor was the refusal by Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, to state publicly that she supported decriminalisation prior to the referendum.[104] She voted in favour of legalising cannabis but only disclosed her position after preliminary results for the referendum were released. She defended this stance arguing that she wanted New Zealanders to form their own views.[105] On the other hand, she publicly announced that she backed the Bill legalising assisted dying, offering the same justification for her opposite stance - "I ultimately want people to make their own individual decisions".[106]

According to a Newshub-Reid Research poll, Ardern is New Zealand's most popular prime minister in a century, thanks to her success in dealing with the COVID-19 virus.[107] Given her popularity, if she had revealed that she supported legalisation, this may well have swung the vote by a few percentage points. Reporting for Stuff, Henry Cooke wrote: "the one thing that could possibly save the cannabis yes vote would be an intervention from the prime minister." [108]

Chloe Swarbrick, the Green Party drug reform spokesperson, suggested that Ardern's refusal to offer public support showed she was not willing to stand up for her convictions.[109] Numerous Australian media outlets published stories with the headline "Ardern silence on cannabis sways NZ poll".[110][111][112][113] Aaron Ironside spokesperson for Say Nope To Dope agreed that Ms Ardern's fence-sitting was likely to have made the difference.[114]

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