2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria on 4 April 2021.[1]
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All 240 seats in the National Assembly 121 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral system
The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by closed list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4%.[2]
Coalitions
During The Greens' 2020 national meeting, the party representatives voted in favor of a coalition at "the next parliamentary election with the other two members of Democratic Bulgaria". The party representatives voted against a "coalition with any of the political parties in the current National Assembly" - namely, GERB, BSP, DPS, Volya and OP.[3]
The deputy chairman of ITN, Toshko Yordanov, said in an interview for the Bulgarian National Radio, that the party "will not enter a coalition with GERB, DPS or BSP".[4]
The cochairman of Democratic Bulgaria, Hristo Ivanov, stated in an interview for bTV, that "there will be no coalition with GERB, whether with or without Borisov".[5]
The chairman of Bulgaria for Citizens Movement, Dimitar Delchev, announced that his party was joining Izpravi se.BG during a public presentation of the citizens' platform at Slaveykov Square, in August 2020.[6] The same was done by the chairman of the Bulgarian chapter of Volt Europa - Nastimir Ananiev,[7] as well as the chairman of the party Movement 21 - Tatyana Doncheva.[8] The citizens' organization The System Kills Us announced their support for Nikola Vaptsarov as their representative within Izpravi se.BG.[9]
Opinion polls
The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude pollees that chose 'I will not vote' or 'I am uncertain'.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Margin of error |
GERB | BSP | DPS | OP[lower-alpha 1] | DB | Volya | ITN | IS.BG | Others / None | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Links (voters) | 23–31 Jan 2021 | 500 | – | 28.6% | 20.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 10.7% | – | 15.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 7.7% |
| Market Links (all) | 23–31 Jan 2021 | 1,000 | – | 25.5% | 22.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 8% | – | 18.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3% |
| Trend (voters) | 12–19 Jan 2021 | 1,008 | ± 3.1% | 27.6% | 24.9% | 10.3% | 4% | 6% | 1.3% | 11.8% | 4.1% | 10% | 2.7% |
| Gallup (voters) | 7–15 Jan 2021 | 1,010 | ± 3.1% | 25.6%[lower-alpha 2] | 21.4% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 13.8% | 5% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Alpha Research (voters) | 15–21 Dec 2020 | 504 | – | 29% | 26.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 7.3% | – | 12.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% |
| Mediana | 12–17 Dec 2020 | 954 | – | 24.2% | 25.7% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 17% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 1.5% |
| Exacta | 5–12 Dec 2020 | 1,025 | – | 28.8% | 25.6% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 6% | – | 14% | 3.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% |
| Barometer | 24–29 Nov 2020 | 847 | – | 33.5% | 20.8% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 12.7% |
| Barometer | 6–11 Nov 2020 | 882 | – | 33.6% | 21.6% | 12.3% | 12% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 12% |
| Sova Harris | 27 Oct–3 Nov 2020 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 26.6%[lower-alpha 2] | 25.1% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Rego (voters) | 21–27 Oct 2020 | 2,000 | – | 27.1% | 26.3% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 1.1% | 18.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Specter (voters) | 12–16 Oct 2020 | 1,016 | – | 22.9% | 21.8% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 12.2% | 0.8% | 16.1% | 3.5% | 8.9% | 1.1% |
| Barometer | 10–16 Oct 2020 | 866 | – | 32.7% | 23.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 9.1% |
| Trend (voters) | 3–10 Oct 2020 | 1,008 | ± 3.1% | 24.1% | 23.6% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 0.5% |
| Gallup | 1–9 Oct 2020 | 803 | ± 3.5% | 19.1% | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 21.4% | 0.7% |
| Alpha Research (voters) | 21–30 Sep 2020 | 1,031 | – | 22.8% | 21.8% | 11% | 4.2% | 10.5% | 0.3% | 16.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 1% |
| Market Links (voters)[lower-alpha 3] | 18–26 Sep 2020 | 544 | – | 27.4% | 27.2% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 11.8% | – | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| Market Links (all) | 18–26 Sep 2020 | 1,058 | – | 24.6% | 25.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 10% | – | 17% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Gallup | 3–11 Sep 2020 | 807 | ± 3.5% | 18.6% | 19% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 22.6% | 0.4% |
| Trend (voters) | 29 Aug–5 Sep 2020 | 1,008 | ± 3.1% | 23.8% | 23.4% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 15.9% | 4% | 7.5% | 0.4% |
| Sova Harris | 19–25 Aug 2020 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 27.7%[lower-alpha 2] | 24.5% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 7% | 3% | 15.7% | 4.5% | 4% | 3.2% |
| Barometer | 3–11 Aug 2020 | 842 | – | 38.9% | 18.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 20% |
| Trend (voters) | 3–10 Aug 2020 | 1,010 | ± 3.1% | 24.2% | 22.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 10.1% | 1.2% | 14.9% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 1.3% |
| Gallup | 30 Jul–7 Aug 2020 | 811 | ± 3.5% | 20% | 19.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 2.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 24.1% | 0.9% |
| CAM | 1–5 Aug 2020 | 1,021 | ± 3.1% | 30.1%[lower-alpha 2] | 19.7% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 13.9% | 5% | 3.9% | 10.4% |
| Market Links (voters) | 28 Jul–3 Aug 2020 | 573 | – | 26.3% | 24.7% | 10.5% | 5% | 12.8% | – | 13.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Market Links (all) | 28 Jul–3 Aug 2020 | 1,093 | – | 23.3% | 20.7% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 10.1% | – | 23% | 4% | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| Gallup | Jul 2020 | – | ± 3.5% | 27.4% | 25.7% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 17.9% | 1.7% |
| Alpha Research | 23–30 Jul 2020 | 1,017 | – | 26.7% | 19.2% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 18.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 7.5% |
| Sova Harris | 26 Jun–1 Jul 2020 | 1,000 | – | 37.4% | 21.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 16% |
| Gallup | Jun 2020 | – | ± 3.5% | 29% | 23.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 7% | 2.4% | 21.3% | 5.9% |
| Barometer | 20–25 Jun 2020 | 828 | – | 37.5% | 20.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 10.5% | 17.1% |
| Market Links (voters) | 27 May–3 Jun 2020 | 483 | – | 34.1% | 25.6% | 9.8% | 3.7%[lower-alpha 4] | 8.5% | – | 9.8% | – | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Alpha Research | 28 Apr–5 May 2020 | 1,000 | – | 33.4% | 19.6% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 14.6% | – | 8.2% | 13.8% |
| Mediana | 21–28 Feb 2020 | 1,008 | – | 29.4% | 25.7% | 13.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 12.9% | – | 8.3% | 3.7% |
| Barometer | 27 Feb 2020 | – | – | 35.2% | 24% | 10.5% | 9%[lower-alpha 4] | 3.1% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 11.5% | 11.2% |
| Trend | 3–10 Feb 2020 | 1,007 | ± 3.1% | 30.6% | 27.3% | 10.1% | 3.9%[lower-alpha 4] | 6% | 2% | 10.7% | – | 9.4% | 3.3% |
| Barometer (voters) | 9–13 Jan 2020 | 873 | – | 35.5% | 28.2% | 11% | 11% | 3.2% | – | 3.6% | – | 7.5% | 7.3% |
| Alpha Research | 5–12 Dec 2019 | 1,017 | – | 29.8% | 25% | 10.7% | 7.3%[lower-alpha 4] | 7% | 2.1% | 11.8% | – | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| Market Links (voters) | 21–28 Nov 2019 | 448 | – | 29.4% | 29.4% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 10.6% | – | 4.7% | 0% |
| Market Links (all) | 21–28 Nov 2019 | 980 | – | 28.6% | 25.4% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 1.6% | 12.7% | – | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Trend | 7–15 Nov 2019 | 1,008 | ± 3.1% | 35.6% | 27.5% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 7.6% | – | 7.3% | 8.1% |
| Alpha Research | 10–16 Sep 2019 | 1,023 | – | 29.6% | 25.8% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 11.4% | – | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Market Links (voters) | 11–19 Jun 2019 | 429 | – | 34.9% | 33% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6% | 3.8% | – | – | 6.4% | 1.9% |
| Trend | 5–12 Jun 2019 | 1,008 | ± 3.1% | 36.7% | 29.1% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.8% | – | – | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| 2019 European election | 26 May 2019 | – | – | 30.13% | 23.53% | 16.05% | 9.29%[lower-alpha 5] | 5.88% | 3.51% | – | – | 11.61% | 6.6% |
| 2017 election | 26 Mar 2017 | – | – | 32.65% | 27.19% | 8.99% | 9.07% | 5.36%[lower-alpha 6] | 4.15% | – | – | 12.59% | 5.46% |
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Margin of error |
GERB | BSP | DPS | OP | DB | Volya | ITN | IS.BG | Others / None | Lead |
Notes:
- Percentages might not include Ataka's results, as they left the coalition around mid-2019.
- In an electoral alliance with SDS.
- The original source data had percentages that totaled 100.2 due to rounding. Due to a lack of better data, the same is true for the recalculated percentages.
- Results of VMRO only, no information on NFSB's results, which are probably counted as 'Others'.
- Combined results, but the three parties were competing on their own own. Ataka won 1.04% of the vote, NFSB won 1.11% and VMRO won 7.14%.
- Combined results of separate coalitions led by Yes, Bulgaria! and DSB. The former achieved a result of 2.88%, while the later won 2.48% of the vote.
Graphical representation of recalculated data:
Note: The above data does not include Barometer polls, due to claims by other pollsters and media that the agency only has 1 employee.[10]
References
- Президентът насрочи парламентарните избори на 4 април Dnevnik, 14 January 2021
- Bulgaria IFES
- Владислав Панев и Борислав Сандов бяха преизбрани за съпредседатели на „Зелено движение“ The Greens, 28 September 2020
- За партията на Слави Трифонов са забранени съюзи с ГЕРБ, БСП и ДПС OFF News, 7 October 2020
- Христо Иванов: Коалиция с ГЕРБ няма да има със или без Борисов OFF News, 11 October 2020
- youtube.com
- youtube.com
- youtube.com
- youtube.com
- When the numbers 'smell fishy'. How a party-colored agency sends something and BNT shows it. // Svobodnaevropa.bg. Visited on 5 February 2021.
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