Next Nova Scotia general election

The 41st Nova Scotia general election will be held when the provincial government passes "an Order in Council calling an election"[1] to elect members to the Nova Scotia House of Assembly. The Nova Scotia Elections Act does not provide for fixed election dates, however the House of Assembly Act requires that no assembly may continue for longer than five years and forty days after the issuing of writs for the previous election[2] (April 30, 2017) and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms limits the terms of all provincial legislative assemblies to five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs for the previous election. This makes an election likely for 2022, but the House of Assembly may be dissolved by the lieutenant governor of Nova Scotia due to a motion of no confidence or if the premier requests a snap election.

41st Nova Scotia general election
No later than 2022
55 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly
28 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Iain Rankin Tim Houston Gary Burrill
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since February 6, 2021 October 27, 2018 February 27, 2016
Leader's seat Timberlea-Prospect Pictou East Halifax Chebucto
Last election 27 seats, 39.47% 17 seats, 35.73% 7 seats, 21.51%
Current seats 26 18 5
Seats needed 2 10 23
Incumbent Premier

Stephen McNeil
Liberal

In April 2019, the Electoral Boundaries Commission released its final report entitled, Balancing Effective Representation with Voter Parity. The report recommended increasing the number of electoral districts from 51 to 55, including reinstating the four former districts of Argyle, Clare, Preston and Richmond. In the fall of 2019, the House of Assembly passed the recommended electoral changes into law and they will be in effect for this election.[3]

Current standings
Party Party leader Seats
2017 Current
Liberal Iain Rankin 27 26
Progressive Conservative Tim Houston 17 18
New Democratic Gary Burrill 7 5
  Independent 2
Vacant 0
Total 51 51

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MLAs have announced that they will not be running in the next provincial election:

Liberal Party

New Democratic Party

Timeline
See also: 63rd General Assembly of Nova Scotia
Changes in seats held (2017–Present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Cumberland South January 24, 2018[11] Jamie Baillie █ PC Resignation[a 1] June 19, 2018[12] Tory Rushton █ PC
Sackville-Cobequid November 16, 2018[13] Dave Wilson █ New Democratic Resignation June 18, 2019[14] Steve Craig █ PC
Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River June 9, 2019[15] Lenore Zann █ New Democratic Resigned from caucus[a 2] █ Independent
Cape Breton-Richmond June 24, 2019[16] Alana Paon █ PC Removed from caucus[a 3] █ Independent
Argyle-Barrington July 31, 2019[17] Chris d'Entremont █ PC Resignation[a 4] September 3, 2019[18] Colton LeBlanc █ PC
Northside-Westmount July 31, 2019[17] Eddie Orrell █ PC Resignation[a 5] September 3, 2019[18] Murray Ryan █ PC
Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg July 31, 2019[17] Alfie MacLeod █ PC Resignation[a 6] September 3, 2019[18] Brian Comer █ PC
Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River September 12, 2019 Lenore Zann █ Independent Resignation[a 7] March 10, 2020 Dave Ritcey █ PC
Cape Breton Centre February 6, 2020 Tammy Martin █ New Democratic Resignation[a 8] March 10, 2020 Kendra Coombes █ New Democratic
Chester-St. Margaret's February 23, 2020 Hugh MacKay █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 9] █ Independent
  1. amid an allegation of harassment
  2. in order to seek the federal Liberal nomination in Cumberland-Colchester
  3. amid a conflict over constituency office accessibility
  4. to run in the federal district of West Nova
  5. to run in the federal district of Sydney-Victoria
  6. to run in the federal district of Cape Breton-Canso
  7. to run in the federal district of Cumberland—Colchester
  8. due to ongoing health issues
  9. amid charges of impaired driving

Opinion polls
Voting Intentions in Nova Scotia since the 2017 Election
Polling Firm Poll Published Link Liberal PC NDP Green
Angus Reid December 10, 2020 HTML 37 29 25 7
Narrative Research December 8, 2020 HTML 49 25 21 5
Narrative Research September 3, 2020 HTML 47 27 19 6
Angus Reid June 8, 2020 HTML 42 31 19 7
Narrative Research May 25, 2020 HTML 57 22 15 6
Innovative Research Group May 12, 2020 PDF 49 24 18 9
Narrative Research March 12, 2020 HTML 43 27 21 10
MQO Research March 3, 2020 PDF 34 32 22 9
Narrative Research December 10, 2019 HTML 42 26 21 9
MQO Research August 31, 2019 PDF 35 35 20 8
Narrative Research July 31–August 22, 2019 PDF 39 28 16 15
Narrative Research June 13, 2019 HTML 31 33 21 13
MQO Research May 13, 2019 PDF 30 38 18 12
Corporate Research Associates March 6, 2019 PDF 37 34 24 5
MQO Research February 13, 2019 PDF 41 33 19 7
Mainstreet Research January 30, 2019 HTML 32.1 31 25.2 8.1
Corporate Research Associates December 12, 2018 PDF 38 31 24 6
Mainstreet Research November 16, 2018 HTML 32.7 33.2 20.7 8.9
MQO Research November 8, 2018 PDF 42 36 15 6
Tim Houston is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (October 27, 2018)
Corporate Research Associates September 6, 2018 PDF 43 32 21 4
MQO Research August 9, 2018 PDF 45 31 20 4
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 HTML 36.7 33.8 22.9 5
Corporate Research Associates June 6, 2018 PDF 45 29 23 3
MQO Research May 11, 2018 PDF 40 31 23 4
Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 HTML 40.2 34.7 17.3 5.6
Corporate Research Associates March 8, 2018 PDF 37 34 25 4
Mainstreet Research January 25, 2018 HTML 40.6 38.5 15.7 5.2
MQO Research January 24, 2018 PDF 47 30 17 5
Corporate Research Associates December 6, 2017 PDF 38 29 27 5
MQO Research October 24, 2017 PDF 44 32 19 4
Corporate Research Associates September 13, 2017 PDF 45 29 22 4
MQO Research July 27, 2017 PDF 46 30 21 3
Corporate Research Associates June 7, 2017 PDF 40 29 28 2
Election 2017 May 30, 2017 HTML 39.5 35.7 21.5 2.8

References
  1. "Sample Election Calendar". Elections Nova Scotia. Retrieved June 4, 2017.
  2. House of Assembly Act, Section 8(1).
  3. Province to restore four protected ridings for Acadians, African Nova Scotians CTV News
  4. April, Allan (January 21, 2020). "N.S. Deputy Premier, finance minister Karen Casey won't reoffer in next election". CTV News Atlantic. Retrieved January 21, 2021.
  5. April, Allan (November 26, 2020). "Nova Scotia Health Minister Leo Glavine to retire from politics". CTV News Atlantic. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  6. Laroche, Jean (February 4, 2021). "Geoff MacLellan latest Liberal MLA leaving N.S. politics". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  7. Jerrett, Andrea; Pace, Natasha (6 August 2020). "Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil to step down, leave public office". CTV News Atlantic. Retrieved 6 August 2020.
  8. Gorman, Michael (November 29, 2018). "Environment Minister Margaret Miller won't reoffer in next election". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  9. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/gordon-wilson-politics-politician-liberal-party-1.5727167
  10. https://www.halifaxtoday.ca/local-news/mla-lisa-roberts-to-seek-federal-ndp-nomination-in-halifax-3310835
  11. "Nova Scotia PC Leader Jamie Baillie forced out over allegations of 'inappropriate behaviour'". CBC Nova Scotia. January 24, 2018. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  12. Prentiss, Mairin (June 19, 2018). "Tories win in Jamie Baillie's former Cumberland South riding". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  13. Laroche, Jean (November 16, 2018). "Dave Wilson steps down as MLA for Sackville-Cobequid". CBC News. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  14. Laroche, Jean (June 19, 2019). "Tories take Sackville-Cobequid byelection in political landscape shakeup". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  15. "Longtime NDP MLA Lenore Zann to run for federal Liberal nomination". CTV News. June 9, 2019. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
  16. Laroche, Jean; Gorman, Michael (June 24, 2019). "Parking lot fight 'final straw' as MLA Alana Paon kicked out of PC caucus". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  17. Laroche, Jean (July 19, 2019). "3 PC MLAs jumping to federal politics co-ordinate resignations". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved August 2, 2019.
  18. Michael, Gorman (September 3, 2019). "Progressive Conservatives make it 3-for-3 in byelections". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved September 4, 2019.

Notes
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