2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Florida as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary

March 15, 2016

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 141 73 Popular vote 1,101,414[1] 568,839 Percentage 64.4% 33.3%

Election results by county.   Hillary Clinton   Bernie Sanders

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Florida primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Debates and forums

March 2016 debate in Miami

On March 9, 2016, the Democratic Party held an eighth presidential debate at Miami Dade College in Miami, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	Other
Official Primary results	March 15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 64.4%	Bernie Sanders 33.3%	Other 2.3%
ARG[2] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	March 11–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 58%	Bernie Sanders 37%	Others / Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac[3] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 519	March 8–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 34%	Others / Undecided 6%
Public Policy Polling[4] Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 627	March 11–12, 2016	Hillary Clinton 57%	Bernie Sanders 32%	Others / Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov[5] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 796	March 9–11, 2016	Hillary Clinton 62%	Bernie Sanders 34%	Others / Undecided 4%
Florida Atlantic University[6] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 414	March 8–11, 2016	Hillary Clinton 59%	Bernie Sanders 31%	Others / Undecided 10%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[7] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500	March 4–10, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 34%	Others / Undecided 5%
WTSP/Mason-Dixon[8] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500	March 7–9, 2016	Hillary Clinton 68%	Bernie Sanders 23%	Others / Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac[9] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 511	March 2–7, 2016	Hillary Clinton 62%	Bernie Sanders 32%	Others / Undecided 6%
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13[10] Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 823	March 4–6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 30%	Others / Undecided 9%
CNN/ORC[11] Margin of error: ± 6.0% Sample size: 264	March 2–6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 34%	Others / Undecided 5%
Wash Post/Univision[12] Margin of error: ± 6.0% Sample size: 449	March 2-5, 2016	Hillary Clinton 64%	Bernie Sanders 26%	Others / Undecided 10%
University of North Florida[13] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 685	February 22–27, 2016	Hillary Clinton 54%	Bernie Sanders 24%	Others / Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[14] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 388	February 24–25, 2016	Hillary Clinton 57%	Bernie Sanders 32%	Others / Undecided 11%
Gravis Marketing[15] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 514	February 24, 2016	Hillary Clinton 58%	Bernie Sanders 42%
Quinnipiac[16] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 476	February 21–24, 2016	Hillary Clinton 59%	Bernie Sanders 33%	Others / Undecided 8%
Florida Southern College[17] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample Size: 608	January 30 – February 6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 43%	Bernie Sanders 26%	Others / Undecided 31%
Florida Atlantic University[18] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample Size: 371	January 15–18, 2016	Hillary Clinton 62%	Bernie Sanders 26%	Martin O'Malley 2% Not Reported

Polls in 2015

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	Other
Florida Atlantic University[18] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample Size: 355	November 15–16, 2015	Hillary Clinton 66%	Bernie Sanders 22%	Martin O'Malley 4% Other 4.5% Undecided 3.7%
Bay News 9/ News13[19] Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 826	October 28 – November 1, 2015	Hillary Clinton 66%	Bernie Sanders 24%	Martin O'Malley 3% Other 2% Undecided 6%
Saint Leo University Polling Institute[20] Margin of error: ±6.0% Sample size: 165	October 17–22, 2015	Hillary Clinton 50.9%	Joe Biden 15.2%	Bernie Sanders 13.3% Unsure/Don't Know 8.5%
Quinnipiac University[21] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 411	September 25 – October 5, 2015	Hillary Clinton 43%	Joe Biden 19%	Bernie Sanders 19% Someone else/Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[22] Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 368	September 11–13, 2015	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 18%	Joe Biden 17% Martin O'Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 1% Lawrence Lessig 0% Someone else/Undecided 6%
Gravis Marketing[23] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 693	September 5–11, 2015	Hillary Clinton 41.6%	Joe Biden 21.4%	Bernie Sanders 12.5% Martin O'Malley 1.5% Jim Webb 1.3% Lincoln Chafee 0.4% Unsure 21.3%
Quinnipiac University[24] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 419	Posted September 4, 2015	Hillary Clinton 52%	Bernie Sanders 20%	Joe Biden 15% Lincoln Chafee 4% Martin O'Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Other 1% Undecided 6%
Quinnipiac University[25] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 345	August 7–18, 2015	Hillary Clinton 48%	Bernie Sanders 15%	Joe Biden 11% Martin O'Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Other 2% Wouldn't vote 6% Undecided 17%
St Pete Polls[26] Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 1080	July 18–28, 2015	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 29%	Jim Webb 2% Martin O'Malley 1% Lincoln Chafee <1% Unsure or someone else 13%
Mason-Dixon[27] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500	July 20–23, 2015	Hillary Clinton 58%	Bernie Sanders 17%	Martin O'Malley 2% Lincoln Chafee 0% Jim Webb 0% Undecided 23%
Gravis Marketing[28] Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 881	June 16–20, 2015	Hillary Clinton 64.8%	Bernie Sanders 20.6%	Martin O'Malley 2.1% Bill De Blasio 1.7% Jim Webb 0.9% Lincoln Chafee 0.4% Unsure 9.5%
Quinnipiac University[29] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 378	June 4–15, 2015	Hillary Clinton 64%	Joe Biden 9%	Bernie Sanders 8% Martin O'Malley 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Jim Webb 0% Other 1% Wouldn't vote 5% Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University[30] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 344	March 17–28, 2015	Hillary Clinton 65%	Joe Biden 11%	Elizabeth Warren 7% Bernie Sanders 3% Jim Webb 2% Martin O'Malley 0% Other 1% Wouldn't vote 2% Undecided 10%
		Joe Biden 42%	Elizabeth Warren 19%	Bernie Sanders 6% Jim Webb 3% Martin O'Malley 1% Other 2% Wouldn't vote 4% Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[31] Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 371	March 19–22, 2015	Hillary Clinton 58%	Joe Biden 14%	Elizabeth Warren 10% Bernie Sanders 3% Martin O'Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Other/Undecided 11%
[32] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 435	February 24–25, 2015	Hillary Clinton 52%	Elizabeth Warren 14%	Joe Biden 9% Martin O'Malley 2% Mark Warner 2% Jim Webb 2% Undecided 18%
Quinnipiac University[33] Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 322	January 22 – February 1, 2015	Hillary Clinton 61%	Joe Biden 11%	Elizabeth Warren 9% Bernie Sanders 2% Martin O'Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Other 2% Wouldn't vote 4% Undecided 10%
		Joe Biden 39%	Elizabeth Warren 22%	Bernie Sanders 3% Martin O'Malley 2% Jim Webb 2% Other 4% Wouldn't vote 5% Undecided 23%

Polls in 2014

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	Other
Quinnipiac University[34] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 457	July 17–21, 2014	Hillary Clinton 67%	Joe Biden 8%	Elizabeth Warren 8% Andrew Cuomo 1% Martin O'Malley 0% Brian Schweitzer 0% Other 1% Wouldn't vote 3% Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling[35] Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 251	June 6–9, 2014	Hillary Clinton 66%	Elizabeth Warren 8%	Joe Biden 7% Cory Booker 5% Andrew Cuomo 4% Mark Warner 1% Kirsten Gillibrand 0% Martin O'Malley 0% Brian Schweitzer 0% Someone else/Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac University[36] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 501	April 23–28, 2014	Hillary Clinton 64%	Joe Biden 11%	Elizabeth Warren 6% Andrew Cuomo 1% Martin O'Malley 1% Brian Schweitzer 1% Other 1% Wouldn't vote 3% Undecided 13%
Quinnipiac University[37] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 529	January 22–27, 2014	Hillary Clinton 64%	Joe Biden 9%	Elizabeth Warren 5% Andrew Cuomo 1% Martin O'Malley 1% Mark Warner 1% Other 2% Wouldn't vote 2% Undecided 16%

Polls in 2013

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	Other
Quinnipiac University[38] Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 544	November 12–17, 2013	Hillary Clinton 70%	Joe Biden 9%	Elizabeth Warren 4% Andrew Cuomo 2% Martin O'Malley 1% Mark Warner 1% Other 2% Wouldn't vote 2% Undecided 10%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 300	March 15–18, 2013	Hillary Clinton 62%	Joe Biden 12%	Andrew Cuomo 5% Elizabeth Warren 3% Martin O'Malley 1% Brian Schweitzer 1% Mark Warner 1% Kirsten Gillibrand 0% Deval Patrick 0% Someone Else/Undecided 14%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 401	January 11–13, 2013	Hillary Clinton 65%	Joe Biden 15%	Andrew Cuomo 4% Elizabeth Warren 4% Deval Patrick 1% Mark Warner 1% Kirsten Gillibrand 0% Martin O'Malley 0% Brian Schweitzer 0% Someone Else/Undecided 11%
		Andrew Cuomo 22%	Elizabeth Warren 15%	Deval Patrick 5% Martin O'Malley 4% Kirsten Gillibrand 3% Mark Warner 2% Brian Schweitzer 1% Someone Else/Undecided 48%

Results

 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida
– Summary of results –

Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	1,101,414	64.44%	141	24	165
Bernie Sanders	568,839	33.28%	73	2	75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	38,930	2.28%
Uncommitted	N/A		0	6	6
Total	1,709,183	100%	214	32	246
Source: The Green Papers, Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results

Results by district

Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
	District	Delegates	Votes Clinton	Votes Sanders	Votes Qualified	Clinton delegates	Sanders delegates
	1	3	26987	18497	45484	2	1
	2	6	50190	34073	84263	4	2
	3	4	32070	27974	60044	2	2
	4	4	33920	22765	56685	2	2
	5	6	55855	18639	74494	4	2
	6	5	37995	24443	62438	3	2
	7	5	37410	26795	64205	3	2
	8	5	39384	24376	63760	3	2
	9	5	40609	19880	60489	3	2
	10	5	38011	22213	60224	3	2
	11	5	38061	21590	59651	3	2
	12	5	35498	23172	58670	3	2
	13	6	44121	29707	73828	4	2
	14	6	49146	23617	72763	4	2
	15	5	32793	20712	53505	3	2
	16	6	43921	25856	69777	4	2
	17	4	29899	17045	46944	3	1
	18	6	42804	20620	63424	4	2
	19	4	31958	17235	49193	3	1
	20	7	61998	15761	77759	6	1
	21	7	57723	22100	79823	5	2
	22	6	49602	22209	71811	4	2
	23	6	44510	19974	64484	4	2
	24	8	59274	13893	73167	6	2
	25	3	24897	9287	34184	2	1
	26	4	32069	14148	46217	3	1
	27	4	30709	12258	42967	3	1
	Total	140	1101414	568839	1670253	93	47
	PLEO	28	1101414	568839	1670253	18	10
	At Large	46	1101414	568839	1670253	30	16
	Gr. Total	214	1101414	568839	1670253	141	73
	Total vote		64.44%	33.28%	1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Results by county

County[39]	Clinton	Votes	Sanders	Votes
Alachua	49.2%	17,733	48.8%	17,590
Baker	38.5%	654	47.4%	805
Bay	52.6%	5,209	41.7%	4,131
Bradford	48.7%	1,056	41.8%	908
Brevard	59.7%	31,835	37.7%	20,083
Broward	72.5%	132,527	26.4%	48,330
Calhoun	36.2%	437	45.2%	545
Charlotte	62.1%	8,125	35.4%	4,634
Citrus	56.3%	6,863	39.2%	4,776
Clay	57.1%	5,345	39.5%	3,698
Collier	66.1%	12,712	31.9%	6,127
Columbia	52.9%	2,299	38.6%	1,676
DeSoto	52.6%	987	38.7%	726
Dixie	40.2%	409	45.1%	459
Duval	67.2%	58,632	30.6%	26,716
Escambia	62.2%	16,765	34.6%	9,318
Flagler	65.8%	6,152	31.9%	2,977
Franklin	47.0%	665	45.7%	647
Gadsden	76.4%	7,446	20.0%	1,944
Gilchrist	37.5%	428	50.7%	578
Glades	49.9%	387	40.3%	313
Gulf	47.4%	568	43.4%	520
Hamilton	54.7%	758	34.6%	479
Hardee	52.7%	529	39.1%	393
Hendry	60.6%	1,156	33.9%	647
Hernando	59.6%	8,882	37.0%	5,512
Highlands	61.4%	3,711	34.0%	2,054
Hillsborough	62.8%	68,936	35.1%	38,505
Holmes	28.3%	339	51.7%	619
Indian River	62.4%	6,897	35.5%	3,926
Jackson	53.9%	2,798	35.5%	1,840
Jefferson	64.6%	1,671	29.5%	762
Lafayette	30.0%	295	50.9%	501
Lake	63.5%	15,914	33.8%	8,465
Lee	62.7%	27,940	35.0%	15,624
Leon	56.5%	27,333	41.1%	19,866
Levy	50.0%	1,570	43.1%	1,354
Liberty	38.0%	316	47.1%	392
Madison	62.4%	1,542	30.0%	741
Manatee	62.5%	18,116	35.1%	10,165
Marion	62.7%	18,220	34.1%	9,892
Martin	59.8%	6,523	37.6%	4,101
Miami-Dade	74.7%	129,467	24.3%	42,009
Monroe	55.3%	4,830	42.8%	3,739
Nassau	56.2%	2,910	39.8%	2,060
Okaloosa	52.0%	4,559	43.1%	3,782
Okeechobee	55.2%	1,150	37.6%	784
Orange	63.8%	66,654	35.1%	36,639
Osceola	68.2%	16,512	30.0%	7,273
Palm Beach	71.5%	103,369	27.2%	39,314
Pasco	58.3%	21,760	38.9%	14,493
Pinellas	60.3%	63,699	37.6%	39,742
Polk	63.0%	29,328	33.3%	15,473
Putnam	49.4%	3,182	42.7%	2,747
Santa Rosa	49.2%	3,938	45.0%	3,602
Sarasota	61.1%	25,881	37.3%	15,776
Seminole	58.3%	22,069	39.9%	15,100
St. Johns	57.0%	9,734	40.7%	6,953
St. Lucie	66.9%	17,554	30.8%	8,091
Sumter	68.1%	7,022	29.3%	3,022
Suwannee	42.2%	1,475	44.3%	1,550
Taylor	45.9%	983	42.4%	907
Union	36.7%	336	51.6%	472
Volusia	60.2%	26,276	37.1%	16,170
Wakulla	48.9%	1,659	42.0%	1,424
Walton	50.0%	1,515	44.9%	1,361
Washington	47.1%	858	42.9%	781
Total	64.4%	1,101,414	33.3%	568,839

Analysis

Florida was generally viewed as a state Hillary Clinton would win, given her strong performance in previous contests with older voters (who comprised 65% of the Democratic electorate in Florida, the largest in any contest) and non-white voters (who made up 52% of the electorate). Clinton won the Florida Primary by 31 points, winning older voters by a margin of 71–26, and non-white voters by a margin of 74–25. Specifically, she won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 68-32 (who made up 20% of the electorate), and African American voters 81-18 (who comprised 27% of the electorate). Clinton also won white voters by a narrower margin of 53–43. She won across all income and educational attainment levels.[40]

In terms of religious affiliation, Clinton won Protestants in Florida 69-29 (36% of the electorate), Catholics 69-29 (22% of the electorate), and other religious affiliations 68-31 (Jews were 4% of the electorate but were unaccounted for in exit polls). Sanders won voters who identified as agnostic/atheist 56–31. In terms of political ideology, Clinton won liberals 59-41 and moderates/conservatives 70–26. And while Clinton won Democrats 71–28, Sanders won self-identified Independents 55–41.[41]

Clinton won in Miami and along the Gold Coast 73–26, where there is a larger population of Hispanic/Latino voters who in South Florida are predominantly of Cuban or Nicaraguan descent. Clinton also won the Gulf Coast and Mid-Florida 64–35, the Tampa Bay Area 63–37, the Orlando area 62–34, and the Northern Panhandle which is whiter, more conservative and more rural by a smaller margin of 58–37.[42]

References

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