2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

March 8, 2016

Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Home state Vermont New York Delegate count 67 63 Popular vote 598,943 581,775 Percentage 49.68% 48.26%

Michigan results by county   Bernie Sanders   Hillary Clinton

On the same day, the Democratic Party held a second primary in Mississippi, while the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.[1]

Clinton lost Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23% in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump. In retrospect, the Democratic primary results in Michigan foreshadowed the general election results.[2]

Forums and debates

March 2016 debate in Flint

On March 6, 2016 the Democratic Party held a seventh presidential debate at The Whiting at the Flint Cultural Center. Flint, Michigan was chosen as the center of the ongoing Flint water crisis.[3] The debate was hosted by Anderson Cooper and aired on CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. At the end of the debate, Cooper announced a labor union fund had committed $25 million in low-interest loans towards repairing the water system.

March 2016 forum in Detroit

The next day, on March 7, 2016, a Town Hall event, was held as the eighth democratic forum. It started at 6:00 p.m. E.S.T., at the Gem Theatre in Detroit, Michigan, and was aired by the Fox News Channel.[4] The forum was moderated by Bret Baier.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Official Primary results	March 8, 2016	Bernie Sanders 49.7%	Hillary Clinton 48.3%		Others / Uncommitted 2.1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[5] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 482	March 7, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 34%		Others / Undecided 5%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[6] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 475	March 6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 66%	Bernie Sanders 29%		Others / Undecided 5%
Monmouth[7] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 302	March 3–6, 2016	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 42%		Others / Undecided 4%
ARG[8] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	March 4–5, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 36%		Others / Undecided 4%
CBS News/YouGov[8] Margin of error: ± 7.7% Sample size: 597	March 2–4, 2016	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 44%		Others / Undecided 1%
Mitchell/FOX 2[9] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 610	March 2–3, 2016	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 37%		Others / Undecided 8%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[10] Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 546	March 1–3, 2016	Hillary Clinton 57%	Bernie Sanders 40%		Others / Undecided 3%
MSU[11] Margin of error: ± 6.1% Sample size: 262	January 25-March 3, 2016	Hillary Clinton 52%	Bernie Sanders 47%		Others / Undecided 1%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[12] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 427	March 1, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 33%		Others / Undecided 6%
MRG[13] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 218	February 22–27, 2016	Hillary Clinton 56%	Bernie Sanders 36%		Others / Undecided 8%
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell[14] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 344	February 23, 2016	Hillary Clinton 65%	Bernie Sanders 31%		Others / Undecided 4%
ARG[15] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400	February 19–20, 2016	Hillary Clinton 53%	Bernie Sanders 40%		Others / Undecided 7%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[16] Margin of error: ± 4.69% Sample size: 430	February 15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 27%		Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[17] Margin of error: ± 4.4 Sample size: 500	February 14–16, 2016	Hillary Clinton 50%	Bernie Sanders 40%
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell[18] Margin of error: ± 5.5% Sample size: 321	February 4, 2016	Hillary Clinton 57%	Bernie Sanders 28%		Others / Undecided 15%
IMP/Target Insyght [18] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	February 2–4, 2016	Hillary Clinton 62%	Bernie Sanders 30%		Others / Undecided 8%
Marketing Resource Group[19] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 600	September 9–14, 2015	Hillary Clinton 41%	Bernie Sanders 22%	Joe Biden 22%	Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[20] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 431	June 25–28, 2015	Hillary Clinton 57%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Lincoln Chafee 5%	Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Not sure 10%
Suffolk Margin of error: ± ? Sample size: 212	September 6–10, 2014	Hillary Clinton 61%	Joe Biden 17%	Elizabeth Warren 7%	Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 9%, Refused 1%

Results

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	598,943	49.68%	67	0	67
Hillary Clinton	581,775	48.26%	63	10	73
Uncommitted	21,601	1.79%	0	7	7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	2,363	0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente	870	0.07%
Total	1,205,552	100%	130	17	147
Source: The Green Papers

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
	District	Delegates	Votes Clinton	Votes Sanders	Votes Qualified	Clinton delegates	Sanders delegates
	1	6	28,860	44,359	73,219	2	4
	2	5	26,090	39,834	65,924	2	3
	3	5	28,441	45,282	73,723	2	3
	4	5	24,928	35,597	60,525	2	3
	5	7	48,622	42,755	91,377	4	3
	6	5	28,265	39,157	67,422	2	3
	7	5	29,186	36,019	65,205	2	3
	8	5	35,205	46,969	82,174	2	3
	9	6	48,570	50,903	99,473	3	3
	10	5	28,314	33,710	62,024	2	3
	11	6	39,732	45,054	84,786	3	3
	12	7	50,157	58,892	109,049	3	4
	13	9	71,235	37,028	108,263	6	3
	14	9	88,494	42,608	131,102	6	3
	Total	85	581,775	598,943	1,180,718	41	44
	PLEO	17	581,775	598,943	1,180,718	8	9
	At Large	28	581,775	598,943	1,180,718	14	14
	Gr. Total	130	581,775	598,943	1,180,718	63	67
	Total vote	1,205,552	48.26%	49.68%
Source: Michigan Department of State Election results (District 13 and 14 Wayne County) partial

Results by county

County	Clinton	%	Sanders	%	Others	Totals	Turnout	Margin
Alcona	463	48.74%	455	47.89%	26	947	30.60%	-0.84%
Alger	384	37.07%	622	60.64%	26	1,035	44.61%	23.00%
Allegan	3,511	38.01%	5,569	60.28%	16	9,050	11.28%	22.29%
Alpena	1,102	44.26%	1,347	54.10%	26	2,478	36.51%	9.89%
Antrim	867	36.09%	1,491	62.07%	39	2,400	32.72%	26.00%
Arenac	595	46.12%	663	51.40%	24	1,285	35.89%	5.29%
Baraga	270	40.36%	371	55.46%	25	669	37.93%	15.10%
Barry	1,736	35.41%	3,078	62.79%	74	4,891	31.62%	27.44%
Bay	5,937	45.98%	6,363	49.28%	555	12,858	47.83%	3.31%
Benzie	853	33.48%	1,650	64.76%	43	2,549	44.66%	31.27%
Berrien	6,698	51.54%	5,968	45.93%	285	12,954	36.25%	-5.64%
Branch	1,010	43.44%	1,246	53.59%	59	2,318	27.23%	10.18%
Calhoun	5,231	46.36%	5,812	51.51%	201	11,247	41.28%	5.17%
Cass	1,657	48.37%	1,684	49.15%	69	3,413	31.70%	0.79%
Charlevoix	1,044	36.73%	1,730	60.87%	58	2,835	36.23%	24.20%
Cheboygan	1,010	42.62%	1,318	55.61%	36	2,367	34.21%	13.01%
Chippewa	1,230	39.83%	1,793	58.06%	55	3,081	38.49%	18.27%
Clare	1,090	45.76%	1,239	52.02%	43	2,375	35.01%	6.27%
Clinton	3,402	42.16%	4,496	55.72%	150	8,051	38.76%	13.59%
Crawford	494	42.33%	631	54.07%	36	1,164	33.90%	11.77%
Delta	1,409	43.34%	1,705	52.45%	122	3,239	39.53%	9.14%
Dickinson	908	43.51%	1,075	51.51%	99	2,085	30.20%	8.01%
Eaton	5,866	43.99%	7,125	53.43%	298	13,292	44.13%	9.47%
Emmet	1,369	33.91%	2,589	64.13%	68	4,029	14.48%	30.28%
Genesee	31,366	51.75%	28,171	46.48%	946	60,486	59.79%	-5.28%
Gladwin	985	46.33%	1,083	50.94%	46	2,117	33.72%
Gogebic	678	44.90%	790	52.32%	38	1,509	46.65%
Grand Traverse	4,140	33.19%	8,091	64.86%	206	12,440	41.56%
Gratiot	1,185	38.87%	1,812	59.43%	42	3,042	38.52%
Hillsdale	977	40.17%	1,380	56.74%	59	2,419	24.31%
Houghton	1,109	34.79%	2,039	63.96%	35	3,186	41.79%
Huron	1,050	45.99%	1,184	51.86%	36	2,273	29.30%
Ingham	17,884	43.49%	22,580	54.91%	562	41,029	59.65%
Ionia	1,491	33.99%	2,812	64.11%	62	4,368	34.63%
Iosco	1,077	46.08%	1,202	51.43%	54	2,336	37.45%
Iron	527	48.30%	546	50.05%	18	1,094	36.11%
Isabella	2,032	33.19%	4,024	65.72%	55	6,114	49.53%
Jackson	5,288	42.72%	6,804	54.97%	230	12,325	37.16%
Kalamazoo	12,611	37.92%	20,162	60.63%	408	33,184	50.40%
Kalkaska	590	35.53%	987	61.11%	30	1,610	30.46%
Kent	26,032	36.86%	43,444	61.52%	987	70,506
Keweenaw	128	39.75%	188	58.39%	6	325
Lake	548	50.14%	514	47.03%	30	1,095
Lapeer	3,325	40.39%	4,650	56.49%	221	8,199
Leelanau	1,459	37.67%	2,360	60.93%	44	3,866
Lenawee	3,455	43.73%	4,256	53.87%	163	7,877
Livingston	6,705	38.14%	10,435	59.35%	396	17,539
Luce	167	35.46%	291	61.78%	11	472
Mackinac	500	42.77%	633	54.15%	29	1,165
Macomb	47,599	48.80%	46,248	47.42%	2,534	71,008
Manistee	1,120	39.63%	1,646	58.24%	51	2,820
Marquette	3,188	35.59%	5,530	61.74%	203	8,924
Mason	1,223	40.56%	1,741	57.24%	38	2,772
Mecosta	1,173	38.88%	1,768	58.60%	63	3,007
Menominee	835	48.72%	805	46.97%	64	1,707
Midland	3,097	39.81%	4,568	58.71%	88	7,756
Missaukee	401	39.08%	591	57.60%	33	1,028
Monroe	6,716	47.25%	6,842	48.13%	595	14,156
Montcalm	1,681	36.85%	2,762	60.54%
Montmorency	392	48.70%	383	47.58%
Muskegon	8,807	44.53%	10,456	52.86%
Newaygo	1,295	36.49%	2,155	60.72%
Oakland	92,300	51.38%	84,163	46.85%
Oceana	791	38.21%	1,237	59.76%
Ogemaw	862	46.24%	926	49.68%
Ontonagon	327	44.37%	362	49.12%
Osceola	670	40.39%	953	57.44%
Oscoda	273	44.90%	315	51.81%
Otsego	786	37.97%	1,228	59.5%
Ottawa	7,473	34.39%	13,959	64.24%
Presque Isle	592	47.70%	606	48.83%
Roscommon	1,163	47.33%	1,187	48.31%
Saginaw	12,490	55.32%	9,676	42.86%
St. Clair	5,973	40.96%	8,347	56.54%
St. Joseph	1,382	37.66%	2,219	60.46%
Sanilac	1,160	42.00%	1,485	53.77%
Schoolcraft	312	45.75%	345	50.59%
Shiawassee	3,031	39.38%	4,452	57.84%
Tuscola	1,984	42.65%	2,532	54.43%
Van Buren	2,484	39.73%	3,656	58.48%
Washtenaw	30,022	43.70%	38,062	55.41%
Wayne	165,819	60.11%	105,487	38.24%
Wexford	909	32.95%	1,793	64.99%
Total	581,775	48.26%	598,943	49.68%

Analysis

Bernie Sanders's narrow, one-point win in Michigan was seen as a major upset for the Clinton campaign, since Bernie Sanders had never led a poll in that state. Many theories about the failure of the Michigan polling circulated throughout the media, with most centering on pollsters' erroneous assumptions about the composition of the electorate stemming from the 2008 primary in Michigan not having been contested due to an impasse between the state party and DNC.^[73][74][75] Although Clinton expanded her delegate lead with a lopsided victory in Mississippi that same day, some journalists suggested Sanders' upset might presage her defeat in other delegate-rich Midwestern Rust Belt states,^[76] such as Missouri, Ohio and Illinois, who voted a week later on March 15, along with North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton was more clearly favored.^[77][78]

Sanders beat Clinton among white voters in Michigan, who made up 70% of the electorate, by a margin of 56–42, a margin perhaps larger than the Clinton campaign had anticipated. Independents, who made up 27% of the electorate, backed Sanders 71–28. As was true in other primaries, Clinton won the votes of women and African Americans, but Sanders's margins with Independents and rural voters, mostly working class whites who felt disaffected and disenfranchised by trade deals championed by Hillary Clinton and her husband,[21] were not able to be surpassed, even by Clinton's large leads in major cities such as Detroit and Flint. Among voters who said their primary concern was the U.S. economy, Sanders won 56–40, even though Clinton had hammered him on his 2009 vote against the auto-bailout which she believed would resonate in a state whose economy depended upon manufacturing and the auto industry. Among unions, Sanders had beaten Clinton 49–46, even though in previous contests union households had broken for Clinton.[22] Hand-wringing began on the Clinton side, with the campaign worrying they turned their attention to the general election too soon, as Hillary Clinton had pleaded "the sooner I could become your nominee, the more I could begin to turn my attention to the Republicans."[23]

Sanders thanked supporters after his surprise win, "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign, the people's revolution that we're talking about, the political revolution that we're talking about, is strong in every part of the country [...] And, frankly, we believe our strongest areas are yet to happen."[23]

Clinton went on to win the next five states in the Democratic primary, including Ohio, Illinois and Missouri.

References

1. "Election 2016 - Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary". realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 2016-05-28.
2. "Michigan Romp Shows Biden Could Rebuild Democrats' 'Blue Wall' vs. Trump".
3. "Flint gets Democratic presidential debate on March 6". Detroit News. February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
4. Feldman, Josh. "Fox News Will Hold Democratic Town Hall Next Week; Only One Candidate Set to Appear". MSN. Archived from the original on 2016-03-07. Retrieved 2016-03-04.
5. "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
6. "Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan" (PDF).
7. "MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT" (PDF).
8. "Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary".
9. "Clinton's lead on Sanders shrinks heading into Michigan Primary".
10. "Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Big Leads in Michigan: Poll".
11. "TRUMP LEADS GOP FIELD IN MICHIGAN; DEMOCRATIC RACE CLOSE".
12. "Clinton, Trump maintain large leads ahead of debates, primary".
13. "Trump & Clinton Poised to Take Michigan" (PDF).
14. "Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% February 23, 2016" (PDF).
15. "ARG POll February 19–20, 2016".
16. "Clinton Leads Sanders by 33%" (PDF). realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 20 February 2016.
17. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
18. "IMP/Target Insyght Poll: Clinton Dominates Dem Primary". insidemichiganpolitics.com. Retrieved 2016-02-08.
19. "Hillary up 19 over Biden and Sanders". mrgmi.com. Retrieved 2015-09-16.
20. "PPP MI" (PDF). publicpolicypolling.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
21. Lee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
22. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
23. Lee, MJ; Zeleny, Jeff; Bash, Dana; Merica, Dan. "What went wrong for Hillary Clinton?". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.