Historical polling for United States presidential elections

Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.[1] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the election winner. However, there were some close elections that it missed, such as 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely voter numbers in 2012. The month section in the tables represents the month that the opinion poll was conducted in. D stands for the Democratic Party while R stands for the Republican Party. There were also some third parties included in some of these polls, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party.[2]

Chart of Democratic candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016

1936 United States presidential election
1936[2]
Month Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % Alf Landon (R) %
July 49% 45%
August 49% 45%
49% 45%
49% 44%
September 49% 45%
50% 44%
October 51% 44%
51% 44%
56% 44%
Actual result 60.80% 36.54%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.80% -7.46%

After predicting the winners in the previous five elections, The Literary Digest famously predicted that Alf Landon would win overwhelmingly based on mail-in cards sent in from their readers.

On the other hand, George Gallup predicted a win by Roosevelt based on statistical random sampling, within 1.1% of the Literary Digest's results.

The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts was a very visible demonstration of the value of modern statistical methods: according to data collected in the Gallup poll, The Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69% of Literary Digest readers that did not return the poll), rather than selection bias, as is commonly believed (Roosevelt won 57% of Literary Digest readers that received the poll).[3]

Incumbent President Roosevelt won in the largest landslide since the unopposed 1820 election, winning every state except Maine and Vermont, as his New Deal programs were very popular among the American people (apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll).

Republican nominee Alf Landon had claimed that the New Deal was too costly and ineffective and that Roosevelt was slowly making the United States a dictatorship, but these attacks did not gain much traction.[4]

1940 United States presidential election
1940[2]
Month Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % Wendell Willkie (R)%
July 48% 42%
44% 43%
August 45% 43%
46% 44%
September 49% 40%
October 50% 40%
51% 42%
52% 48%
Actual result 54.74% 44.78%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.74% -3.22%

Throughout this campaign, Roosevelt promised that he would not bring the United States into any new wars if he was given another term and also promised to continue the New Deal.

While Willkie attacked Roosevelt for seeking a third term and accused him of trying to turn the United States into a dictatorship by refusing to leave office, his attacks gained little traction.

Roosevelt consistently led in all polls and was re-elected by a large margin.[5]

1944 United States presidential election
1944[2]
Month Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % Thomas E. Dewey (R) %
March 55% 41%
53% 42%
April 48% 46%
May 48% 47%
50% 45%
June 51% 45%
51% 44%
July 46% 45%
49% 41%
August 47% 42%
47% 45%
September 47% 42%
50% 45%
48% 41%
47% 45%
October 48% 47%
50% 47%
November 51% 48%
Actual result 53.39% 45.89%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.39% -2.11%

Roosevelt actively campaigned in this election, against his doctors' advice, in order to counter Republican claims that he was close to death.

Roosevelt maintained a consistent, albeit sometimes narrow lead in the polls, and won a solid victory in this election due to American success in World War II and Roosevelt's continued popularity.[6]

1948 United States presidential election
1948[2]
Month Harry S. Truman (D) % Thomas E. Dewey (R) % Henry A. Wallace (Progressive) % Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) %
December 1947/January 1948 46% 41% 7%
February/March 39% 47% 7%
April/May
June/July 38% 49% 6%
37% 48% 5%
August/September 37% 48% 4% 2%
36% 49% 5% 3%
39% 47% 3% 2%
39% 47% 3% 2%
40% 46% 4% 2%
October[7] 45% 50% 4% 2%
Actual result 49.55% 45.07% 2.37% 2.41%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.55% -4.93% -1.63% +0.41%

While incumbent President Truman's popularity was low at the end of 1946, he was able to regain his popularity by attacking the "Do-Nothing" Republican Congress of 1947–1948 and tying Dewey to it, as well as energizing certain segments of the Democratic base through various actions such as ending segregation in the military and recognizing Israel.[8]

Gallup and other polling organizations had ceased polling in mid-October, believing Dewey would win the election in any event, and thus failed to predict Truman's comeback or his subsequent victory.[1]

1952 United States presidential election
1952[2]
Month Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % Adlai Stevenson II (D) %
June 59% 31%
July 50% 43%
August
September 55% 40%
55% 41%
October 53% 41%
51% 38%
48% 39%
48% 39%
51% 49%
Actual result 55.18% 44.33%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.18% -4.67%

Dissatisfaction with the Korean War, corruption and the threat of Communism (K1c2) allowed popular World War II hero Eisenhower to win the election in a landslide after consistently leading in the polls, most of them by large margins.[9]

1956 United States presidential election
1956[2]
Month Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % Adlai Stevenson II (D) %
December 1955/January 1956 61% 35%
February/March 63% 33%
April/May 61% 37%
62% 33%
62% 35%
June/July 62% 35%
61% 37%
August/September 52% 41%
52% 41%
52% 40%
October/November 51% 41%
59% 40%
Actual result 57.37% 41.97%
Difference between actual result and final poll -1.63% +1.97%

After consistently leading in the polls by huge margins, popular incumbent President Eisenhower was easily re-elected due to the economic prosperity at home and ending the Korean War abroad.[10][11]

1960 United States presidential election
1960[2]
Month John F. Kennedy (D) % Richard Nixon (R) %
December 1959/January 1960 43% 48%
February/March 48% 48%
50% 45%
April/May 51% 44%
48% 47%
47% 49%
June/July 50% 46%
August/September 44% 50%
47% 47%
48% 47%
46% 47%
October/November 49% 46%
49% 45%
51% 49%
Actual result 49.72% 49.55%
Difference between actual result and final poll -1.28% +0.55%

The polls throughout this election always indicated a very close race. Incumbent Vice President Nixon initially led in the polls, but then suffered some problems (a poor image in the first television debate and a knee injury which prevented him from campaigning) which caused Kennedy to take the lead in the polls for most of the campaign. In the end, Kennedy won an extremely close victory over Nixon:[12] according to the Congressional Review, Nixon won the popular vote by 60,000 votes or 0.09%.

1964 United States presidential election
1964[2]
Month Lyndon B. Johnson (D) % Barry Goldwater (R) %
June 77% 18%
76% 20%
July 62% 26%
59% 31%
August 65% 29%
September 65% 29%
62% 32%
October 64% 29%
64% 36%
Actual result 61.05% 38.47%
Difference between actual result and final poll -2.95% +2.47%

Incumbent President Johnson always maintained a huge lead in the polls and won in a landslide due to massive popular sympathy following the assassination of John F. Kennedy, a good economy, lack of severe foreign problems, and an effective campaign to portray Goldwater as a dangerous, out-of-touch extremist.

1968 United States presidential election
1968[2]
Month Richard Nixon (R) % Hubert Humphrey (D) % George Wallace (American Independent) %
April 43% 34% 9%
May 39% 36% 14%
36% 42% 14%
June 37% 42% 14%
July 35% 40% 16%
40% 38% 16%
August 45% 29% 18%
September 43% 31% 19%
43% 28% 21%
44% 29% 20%
October 44% 36% 15%
November 43% 42% 15%
Actual result 43.42% 42.72% 13.53%
Difference between actual result and final poll +0.42% +0.72% -1.47%

This campaign was always close according to the polls, but after the tumultuous 1968 Democratic Convention and the riots near it Nixon was able to establish a lead and consistently maintain it throughout the campaign. American Independent candidate George Wallace ran in opposition to civil rights and in support of segregation and thus got a lot of support in the South. Humphrey began catching up to Nixon in the polls late in the campaign, but he ran out of time and Nixon won a narrow victory in the election itself.

1972 United States presidential election
1972[2]
Month Richard Nixon (R) % George McGovern (D) %
May 53% 34%
June 53% 37%
July 56% 37%
August 57% 31%
64% 30%
September 61% 33%
October 60% 34%
59% 36%
November 62% 38%
Actual result 60.67% 37.52%
Difference between actual result and final poll -1.33% -0.48%

Incumbent President Nixon won re-election in a landslide, winning every state except Massachussetts, after maintaining a huge poll lead due to the economic recovery following the 1969–1970 recession and a successful portrayal of McGovern as a foreign policy lightweight and social radical ("amnesty, abortion, and acid"). McGovern's campaign was also hurt by him having to change vice-presidential candidates in the middle of the campaign, causing many people to question his judgement.[13]

1976 United States presidential election
1976[2]
Month Jimmy Carter (D) % Gerald Ford (R) %
March 47% 42%
48% 46%
48% 46%
April 48% 43%
May 52% 42%
53% 40%
June 55% 37%
53% 36%
July 62% 29%
August 54% 32%
51% 36%
September 51% 40%
October 47% 45%
47% 41%
48% 49%
Actual result 50.08% 48.02%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.08% -0.98%

Carter was able to open up a huge lead over incumbent President Ford due to dissatisfaction with Watergate, Ford's pardon of Nixon and the sluggish economy. Ford managed to close the gap near the end of the campaign by having some good debate performances among other things. However, Ford was hurt by his comment saying that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and he ran out of time to close the polling gap with Carter, thus allowing Carter to pull off a narrow victory on election day.

1980 United States presidential election
1980[2]
Month Ronald Reagan (R) % Jimmy Carter (D) % John B. Anderson (I) %
December 1979/January 1980 33% 62%
February/March 31% 60%
33% 58%
34% 40% 21%
April/May 34% 41% 18%
32% 38% 21%
32% 40% 21%
June/July 32% 39% 21%
33% 35% 24%
37% 32% 22%
37% 34% 21%
August/September 45% 29% 14%
38% 39% 13%
39% 39% 14%
October/November 40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result 50.75% 41.01% 6.61%
Difference between actual result and final poll +3.75% -2.99% -1.39%

Incumbent President Carter initially had a huge lead in the polls due to the rally-around-the flag effect of the Iranian hostage crisis and the perceived extremism of Reagan. The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters. This race remained close until near the end, when Reagan asked Americans if they were better off than they were four years ago. Afterwards, Reagan managed to win a huge landslide victory in the general election.

1984 United States presidential election
1984[2]
Month Ronald Reagan (R) % Walter Mondale (D) %
December 1983/January 1984 48% 47%
53% 43%
February/March 52% 42%
50% 45%
52% 44%
April/May 54% 41%
52% 44%
50% 46%
53% 43%
June/July 53% 44%
55% 38%
51% 43%
53% 39%
53% 41%
August/September 52% 41%
56% 37%
58% 37%
55% 39%
October/November 58% 38%
56% 39%
59% 41%
Actual result 58.77% 40.56%
Difference between actual result and final poll -0.23% -0.44%

Incumbent President Reagan led in all pre-election polls and defeated Mondale in a landslide, winning every state except Mondale's home state of Minnesota, due to the improving economy and falling unemployment rate.

1988 United States presidential election
1988[2]
Month George H. W. Bush (R) % Michael Dukakis (D) %
March 52% 40%
April 45% 43%
May 38% 54%
June 38% 52%
41% 46%
July 41% 47%
37% 54%
August 42% 49%
September 49% 41%
47% 42%
October 50% 40%
November 56% 44%
Actual result 53.37% 45.65%
Difference between actual result and final poll -2.63% +1.65%

While Dukakis was able to open a huge lead in the initial polls, Vice President Bush's campaign successfully portrayed Dukakis as soft on crime and also used the good economy, Reagan's popularity and Bush's no new taxes pledge to close the gap and eventually open up a huge lead over Dukakis. Bush ended up easily winning the general election.

1992 United States presidential election
1992[2]
Month Bill Clinton (D) % George H. W. Bush (R) % Ross Perot (I) %
March 25% 44% 24%
April 26% 41% 25%
May 29% 35% 30%
25% 35% 35%
June 26% 30% 38%
25% 31% 39%
24% 24% 37%
24% 32% 34%
27% 33% 32%
July 40% 48%
56% 34%
56% 36%
57% 32%
August 56% 37%
50% 39%
52% 42%
September 54% 39%
51% 42%
50% 40%
54% 38%
51% 35% 8%
October 47% 35% 10%
50% 34% 9%
51% 33% 10%
46% 34% 13%
47% 34% 14%
47% 29% 15%
44% 32% 17%
41% 30% 20%
42% 31% 19%
40% 38% 16%
41% 40% 14%
43% 36% 15%
November 49% 37% 14%
Actual result 43.01% 37.45% 18.91%
Difference between actual result and final poll -5.99% +0.45% +4.91%

In the spring and early summer, the polls fluctuated with incumbent President Bush and independent challenger Ross Perot trading the lead in the polls. However, Perot withdrew from the race in July and Clinton was able to open up a consistent lead in the polls from July onward by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he would fix it ("It's the economy, stupid").

While Perot returned to the race in September, but he was never able to recapture all his previous support, and Clinton ended up winning the general election by a comfortable margin.

1996 United States presidential election
1996[2]
Month Bill Clinton (D) % Bob Dole (R) % Ross Perot (Reform) %
January 43% 39% 16%
February
March 47% 34% 17%
April 49% 35% 15%
May 47% 32% 19%
49% 35% 15%
June 49% 33% 17%
July 50% 33% 12%
50% 35% 10%
August 52% 30% 12%
48% 39% 7%
50% 38% 7%
51% 38% 7%
55% 34% 6%
September 53% 36% 5%
54% 36% 4%
55% 34% 5%
55% 34% 5%
55% 32% 6%
51% 34% 8%
50% 36% 6%
52% 36% 4%
53% 34% 6%
51% 38% 5%
49% 39% 6%
51% 37% 6%
57% 32% 5%
October 53% 36% 6%
51% 39% 5%
55% 35% 5%
55% 34% 6%
51% 38% 5%
56% 35% 4%
48% 39% 5%
51% 36% 8%
54% 35% 6%
52% 33% 8%
53% 34% 6%
54% 34% 7%
49% 37% 7%
51% 35% 10%
50% 37% 7%
November 52% 41% 7%
Actual result 49.23% 40.72% 8.40%
Difference between actual result and final poll -2.77% -0.28% +1.40%

Incumbent President Clinton held a comfortable lead in the polls throughout this entire election cycle due to the good economy, stable international situation, and successfully tying Dole to Newt Gingrich, the unpopular Speaker of the house, easily winning the general election.

2000 United States presidential election
2000[2]
Month George W. Bush (R) % Al Gore (D) % Ralph Nader (Green) %
April 47% 41% 4%
May
June 46% 41% 6%
50% 38% 6%
July 45% 43% 5%
50% 39% 4%
August 54% 37% 4%
55% 39% 2%
46% 47% 3%
46% 45% 3%
September 44% 47% 3%
46% 45% 2%
42% 49% 3%
41% 49% 4%
42% 49% 2%
41% 49% 3%
44% 48% 2%
41% 51% 3%
42% 50% 2%
47% 44% 2%
46% 44% 2%
46% 44% 3%
45% 45% 4%
October 41% 49% 2%
40% 51% 2%
48% 41% 4%
50% 42% 4%
45% 45% 2%
45% 45% 3%
48% 43% 2%
47% 44% 3%
51% 40% 4%
44% 46% 4%
49% 42% 3%
52% 39% 4%
49% 42% 3%
47% 44% 3%
47% 43% 4%
November 47% 43% 4%
48% 46% 4%
Actual result 47.91% 48.42% 2.74%
Difference between actual result and final poll -0.09% +2.42% -1.26%

This election was close throughout the whole campaign, since Gore was able to use the good economy to his advantage while also being hurt by perceptions of him as robotic and pompous. The Lewinsky scandal also might have hurt Gore, and helped Bush in the polls among voters who were concerned about moral values.

Despite multiple court challenges by the Gore campaign after a recount was required in Florida, the Supreme Court upheld the decision, allowing Bush to win the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote by 0.51%.[14]

2004 United States presidential election
2004[2]
Month George W. Bush (R) % John Kerry (D) %
March 44% 50%
49% 45%
April 47% 43%
50% 44%
May 47% 47%
47% 45%
46% 47%
June 43% 49%
48% 47%
July 45% 50%
46% 47%
51% 45%
August 48% 46%
48% 46%
September 52% 45%
52% 44%
October 49% 49%
48% 49%
52% 44%
51% 46%
49% 49%
Actual result 50.73% 48.27%
Difference between actual result and final poll +1.73% -0.73%

This election was closely contested throughout the entire campaign, as dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and a sluggish economy helped Kerry. However, Bush accused Kerry of flip-flopping[15] and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth accused Kerry of being unpatriotic.

A decisive moment came a week before the election when Al-Qaeda released a video warning Americans not to re-elect Bush: afterwards, Bush's poll ratings in decisive swing states gave him a comfortable lead there, and Bush was re-elected.[2]

2008 United States presidential election
2008[2]
Month Barack Obama (D) % John McCain (R) %
March 46% 44%
43% 47%
April 46% 43%
45% 45%
May 42% 48%
47% 43%
44% 47%
June 48% 41%
45% 45%
July 48% 42%
45% 44%
49% 40%
44% 44%
August 48% 42%
45% 45%
50% 42%
September 44% 49%
50% 44%
46% 46%
October 52% 41%
49% 43%
52% 42%
53% 40%
53% 42%
Actual result 52.91% 45.64%
Difference between actual result and final poll -0.09% +3.64%

The campaign was close throughout the spring and summer, with Obama and McCain both trading leads. The economy went into a recession in December 2007,[16] but initially Obama was hurt in the polls due to weak support from Hillary Clinton supporters.[17] The Republicans also attacked Obama for being inexperienced[18] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after he picked Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential nominee. However, the financial crisis which started in mid-September allowed Obama to open up a consistent and comfortable lead in the polls in the beginning of October, and he won the general election by a comfortable margin.[2]

2012 United States presidential election
2012
Month Barack Obama (D) % Mitt Romney (R) %
April 45% 47%
49% 43%
46% 46%
May 44% 50%
47% 46%
45% 46%
June 47% 45%
48% 43%
July 48% 44%
47% 45%
46% 46%
46% 45%
August 47% 45%
45% 47%
47% 46%
September 49% 45%
50% 43%
50% 44%
October 50% 45%
46% 49%
48% 48%
48% 47%
November 49% 46%
Actual result 51.07% 47.20%
Difference between actual result and final poll +2.07% +1.20%

Early on, President Obama and his campaign aired negative attack ads hammering Republican challenger Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch, plutocratic, wealthy job destroyer from his days as a corporate CEO at Bain Capital. Romney bounced back in the polls against the incumbent after strong performances in the primaries and because the economy was still recovering from the 2007–2009 recession.

In April, after Obama publicly expressed his support of same-sex marriage and a story of Romney bullying a kid in high school perceived to be gay was published, Obama took larger leads in the polls, but Romney and the Republicans attacked Obama for falsely saying the economy was doing well, for welfare waivers and also China's unfair trade practices. Throughout much of the summer, May, July and August, with the exception of June, the polls stayed close as Romney made several "gaffes" on a foreign trip to Europe and Israel while visiting that month during the time of the 2012 Summer Olympics. Romney was also hurt by the release of a speech he delivered at a campaign fundraiser. In it, he suggested that 47 percent of Americans, who did not pay federal income taxes, would "vote for the President, no matter what," because they felt "entitled to health care, to food, to housing - you name it."

After the conventions, it was clear that Obama had the lead as he led in all polls from every major publication. However, after Obama's poor showing in the first debate, Romney took the lead and had the polls tied in early October, up to mid October. From mid-October onward, the Democrats regained their momentum. Obama won re-election by a relatively close margin in the popular vote, but by a large margin in the Electoral College.

2016 United States presidential election
2016
Month Donald Trump (R) % Hillary Clinton (D) % Gary Johnson (L) % Jill Stein (G) %
June 35% 40% 5% 3%
37% 42% 8% 5%
July 37% 41% 7% 4%
38% 41% 8% 4%
40% 39% 7% 3%
August 38% 42% 7% 3%
36% 44% 9% 4%
38% 42% 8% 3%
September 38% 41% 8% 3%
41% 42% 9% 3%
41% 44% 7% 2%
October 39% 44% 7% 2%
39% 46% 7% 2%
40% 46% 6% 2%
43% 45% 5% 2%
November 43% 45% 4% 2%
42% 46% 4% 2%
Actual result 46.09% 48.18% 3.28% 1.13%
Difference between actual result and final poll +4.09% +2.18% -0.72% -0.87%

Political outsider and businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were seen unfavorably by many pollsters and pundits throughout the election, with many predicting Trump would lose in a likely blowout to Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.

However, Trump was able to win over many white blue-collar workers within the Great Lakes and Rust Belt regions, which for many years had been Democratic strongholds, thus allowing Trump to win the Electoral College even though he lost the national popular vote by slightly over 2%.[19]

See also

References
  1. "Poll" in The Columbia Encyclopedia, 6th ed.' New York. Columbia University Press. 2012. OCLC 746941797. Retrieved September 24, 2012. – via Questia (subscription required)
  2. "Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008". gallup.com. Gallup, Inc. Archived from the original on June 30, 2017. Retrieved August 30, 2012.
  3. Squire, Peverill (Spring 1988). "Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed". The Public Opinion Quarterly. 52 (1): 125–133.
  4. Derrick Dickey. "1936 Roosevelt v. Landon". Kennesaw.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  5. Derrick Dickey. "1940 Roosevelt v. Willkie". Kennesaw.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  6. Derrick Dickey. "1944 Roosevelt v. Dewey". Kennesaw.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  7. Harry J. Enten. "Clinton-Trump Probably Won't Be The Next 'Dewey Defeats Truman'". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  8. P.O. Box 400406 (August 22, 2012). "American President: Harry S. Truman: Campaigns and Elections". Millercenter.org. Archived from the original on September 5, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  9. "Election of 1952". Historycentral.com. December 20, 2008. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  10. "BBC ON THIS DAY | 7 | 1956: Eisenhower re-elected with record vote". BBC News. November 7, 1956. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  11. "1956: We Still Like Ike". Kennesaw.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  12. "Campaign of 1960 - John F. Kennedy Presidential Library & Museum". Jfklibrary.org. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  13. Derrick Dickey. "1972 Nixon v. McGovern". Kennesaw.edu. Archived from the original on May 25, 2012. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  14. "2000 Presidential Election Overview". Gwu.edu. Retrieved September 8, 2012.
  15. "Lexington: John Kerry, flip-flopper?". The Economist. March 27, 2004. Retrieved September 21, 2012.
  16. Isidore, Chris (December 1, 2008). "It's official: U.S. in a recession since December 2007 - Dec. 1, 2008". Money.cnn.com. Retrieved September 21, 2012.
  17. "If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain". Gallup.com. Retrieved September 21, 2012.
  18. "GOP cheers Obama's historic stride, but doubts his experience - CNN". Articles.cnn.com. August 27, 2008. Retrieved September 21, 2012.
  19. Campbell, Alexia (November 14, 2016). "One Reason the Rust Belt Turned Red". The Atlantic.
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