Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2019 Canadian federal election leading up to the 44th Canadian federal election, scheduled to take place on or before October 16, 2023.[1]
Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
| Polling firm | Last date of polling[1] |
Link | CPC | LPC | NDP | BQ | GPC | PPC | Other[2] | Margin of error[3] |
Sample size[4] |
Polling method[5] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | February 3, 2021 | HTML | 31 | 32 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ±1.6 pp | 3,930 | online | 1 |
| Leger | January 31, 2021 | 28 | 37 | 22 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.48 pp | 1,559 | online | 9 | |
| Campaign Research | January 30, 2021 | HTML | 30 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 8 | N/A | 3 | ±2 pp | 2,413 | online | 4 |
| EKOS | January 27, 2021 | HTML | 30.9 | 34.3 | 15.0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 | ±0.8 pp | 13,730 | IVR | 3.4 |
| Angus Reid | January 24, 2021 | 30 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 5 | N/A | 4 | ±2.5 pp | 1,559 | online | 5 | |
| Mainstreet Research | January 20, 2021 | HTML | 31.9 | 39.3 | 14.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | ±1.8 pp | 3,132 | IVR | 7.4 |
| Leger | January 17, 2021 | 29 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.53 pp | 1,516 | online | 7 | |
| Abacus Data | January 12, 2021 | HTML | 31 | 35 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | ±2.2 pp | 2,000 | online | 4 |
| Ipsos | January 6, 2021 | HTML | 29 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 8 | N/A | 2 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 7 |
| Leger | January 3, 2021 | 30 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.53 pp | 1,506 | online | 5 | |
| Pollara | December 23, 2020 | 29 | 38 | 18 | 7 | 6 | N/A | N/A | ±2.8 pp | 1,200 | online | 9 | |
| Abacus Data | December 18, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 7 | N/A | N/A | ±2.1 pp | 2,200 | online | 3 |
| Mainstreet Research | December 17, 2020 | 33.2 | 37.9 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | ±2.7 pp | 1,286 | IVR | 4.7 | |
| Research Co. | December 14, 2020 | 31 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | online | 6 | |
| Ipsos | December 14, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 18 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 1 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 3 |
| Leger | December 13, 2020 | 29 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.50 pp | 1,528 | online | 6 | |
| Campaign Research | December 3, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 19 | 5 | 6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,956 | online | 3 |
| Angus Reid | November 30, 2020 | 33 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 4 | N/A | 3 | ±1.4 pp | 5,003 | online | 1 | |
| Leger | November 29, 2020 | 30 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,516 | online | 4 | |
| Mainstreet Research | November 26, 2020 | 31.7 | 39.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | ±2.7 pp | 1,341 | IVR | 7.3 | |
| EKOS | November 26, 2020 | HTML | 31.3 | 35.0 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | ±1.4 pp | 5,240 | IVR | 3.7 |
| Delphi Polling | November 25, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | N/A | 1,000 | online | 6 |
| Abacus Data | November 24, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ±1.85 pp | 2,912 | online | 6 |
| Ipsos | November 23, 2020 | HTML | 31 | 36 | 17 | 8 | 7 | N/A | 1 | ±3.5 pp | 1,001 | online | 5 |
| Leger | November 15, 2020 | 31 | 35 | 18 | 8 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,522 | online | 4 | |
| Abacus Data | November 12, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 38 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | ±2.5 pp | 1,664 | online | 8 |
| Angus Reid | November 9, 2020 | 33 | 35 | 18 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.4 pp | 1,602 | online | 2 | |
| Leger | November 8, 2020 | 28 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 3 | ±2.50 pp | 1,534 | online | 8 | |
| Leger | November 1, 2020 | 31 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,516 | online | 3 | |
| Ipsos | October 26, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 6 |
| Leger | October 25, 2020 | 30 | 37 | 18 | 8 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,523 | online | 7 | |
| Mainstreet Research | October 21, 2020 | HTML | 34.0 | 35.8 | 15.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | ±2.7 pp | 1,328 | IVR | 1.8 |
| EKOS | October 19, 2020 | 31.4 | 35.2 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 4 | 2 | ±2.6 pp | 1,416 | IVR | 3.8 | |
| Leger | October 18, 2020 | 29 | 36 | 18 | 8 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,512 | online | 7 | |
| Nanos Research | October 16, 2020 | 32.5 | 38.5 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 1.4 | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (3/4) | telephone (rolling) | 6.0 | |
| Leger | October 11, 2020 | 29 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 1 | ±2.50 pp | 1,539 | online | 8 | |
| Innovative Research | October 6, 2020 | 31 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | N/A | 2,771 | online | 6 | |
| Leger | October 4, 2020 | 32 | 36 | 20 | 7 | 4 | N/A | 1 | ±2.51 pp | 1,523 | online | 4 | |
| Ipsos | October 1, 2020 | HTML | 31 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 1 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 5 |
| Abacus Data | September 28, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | ±2.0 pp | 2,440 | online | 5 |
| Leger | September 27, 2020 | 30 | 40 | 17 | 8 | 5 | N/A | 1 | ±2.52 pp | 1,514 | online | 10 | |
| Nanos Research | September 25, 2020 | 34 | 34 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (1/4) | telephone/online (rolling) | 0 | |
| Mainstreet Research | September 24, 2020 | HTML | 34.6 | 37.1 | 15.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | ±2.7 pp | 1,307 | IVR | 2.5 |
| Abacus Data | September 21, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 3 |
| Leger | September 20, 2020 | 30 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.50 pp | 1,538 | online | 5 | |
| Nanos Research | September 18, 2020 | 33.2 | 35.0 | 17.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | N/A | 1.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (3/4) | telephone/online (rolling) | 1.8 | |
| Campaign Research | September 15, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2 pp | 2,389 | online | 10 |
| Innovative Research | September 15, 2020 | 29 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 2,374 | online | 10 | |
| Ipsos | September 14, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 8 | N/A | 1 | ±3.5 pp | 1,000 | online | 1 |
| Research Co. | September 13, 2020 | 32 | 38 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | online | 6 | |
| Leger | September 13, 2020 | 31 | 35 | 18 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 3 | ±2.50 pp | 1,539 | online | 4 | |
| Leger | September 6, 2020 | 32 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 1 | ±2.51 pp | 1,529 | online | 2 | |
| Abacus Data | September 3, 2020 | HTML | 31 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | ±2.1 pp | 2,289 | online | 2 |
| Angus Reid | September 1, 2020 | 35 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 4 | N/A | 2 | ±1.5 pp | 5,005 | online | 0 | |
| Innovative Research | September 1, 2020 | 28 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | N/A | 2,308 | online (rolling) | 10 | |
| Leger | August 30, 2020 | 29 | 35 | 21 | 8 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,521 | online | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | August 28, 2020 | 31 | 33 | 18 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone/online (rolling) | 2 | |
| Leger | August 23, 2020 | 30 | 38 | 18 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,516 | online | 8 | |
| Abacus Data | August 19, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 6 |
| Ipsos | August 18, 2020 | HTML | 32 | 35 | 18 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2.5 pp | 2,000 | online | 3 |
| Innovative Research | August 18, 2020 | 28 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | N/A | 1,934 | online | 12 | |
| Leger | August 16, 2020 | 32 | 35 | 18 | 8 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,510 | online | 3 | |
| Campaign Research | August 13, 2020 | HTML | 33 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 8 | N/A | 4 | ±2 pp | 2,013 | online | 3 |
| Mainstreet Research | August 12, 2020 | HTML | 28.9 | 41.3 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | ±2.5 pp | 1,594 | IVR | 12.4 |
| Leger | August 9, 2020 | 29 | 36 | 15 | 8 | 8 | N/A | 3 | ±2.52 pp | 1,513 | online | 7 | |
| Leger | August 2, 2020 | 31 | 33 | 20 | 8 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.5 pp | 1,531 | online | 2 | |
| Abacus Data | July 29, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 4 |
| Leger | July 26, 2020 | 29 | 35 | 20 | 9 | 6 | N/A | 1 | ±2.52 pp | 1,517 | online | 6 | |
| Nanos Research | July 24, 2020 | 29.9 | 33.3 | 16.9 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 3.1 | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone/online (rolling) | 3.4 | |
| EKOS | July 22, 2020 | HTML | 30.0 | 34.7 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | ±2.5 pp | 1,505 | IVR | 4.7 |
| Innovative Research | July 20, 2020 | 28 | 40 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | N/A | 2,599 | online | 12 | |
| Leger | July 19, 2020 | 28 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,524 | online | 11 | |
| EKOS | July 16, 2020 | HTML | 29.5 | 33.2 | 18.2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | ±3.7 pp | 694 | IVR | 3.7 |
| Abacus Data | July 16, 2020 | HTML | 31 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 5 |
| Leger | July 12, 2020 | 26 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,523 | online | 12 | |
| Leger | July 5, 2020 | 25 | 39 | 20 | 8 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,517 | online | 14 | |
| Leger | June 28, 2020 | 28 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,524 | online | 12 | |
| Mainstreet Research | June 26, 2020 | 27.4 | 43.2 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 | ±2.7 pp | 1,283 | IVR | 15.8 | |
| Nanos Research | June 26, 2020 | 27.0 | 38.4 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone/online (rolling) | 11.4 | |
| Innovative Research | June 23, 2020 | 27 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 8 | N/A | 3 | N/A | 2,115 | online | 14 | |
| Leger | June 21, 2020 | 28 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,521 | online | 11 | |
| Abacus Data | June 21, 2020 | HTML | 29 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ±1.8 pp | 2,979 | online | 11 |
| EKOS | June 16, 2020 | HTML | 29.9 | 40.5 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | ±1.8 pp | 3,006 | IVR | 10.6 |
| Leger | June 14, 2020 | 27 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 3 | ±2.51 pp | 1,527 | online | 13 | |
| Abacus Data | June 11, 2020 | 29 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,780 | online | 10 | |
| Leger | June 7, 2020 | 25 | 46 | 15 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 1 | ±2.51 pp | 1,523 | online | 21 | |
| Innovative Research | June 1, 2020 | 28 | 42 | 12 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 4 | N/A | 2,246 | online | 14 | |
| Leger | May 31, 2020 | 27 | 40 | 18 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2.50 pp | 1,536 | online | 13 | |
| Abacus Data | May 29, 2020 | 29 | 39 | 15 | 7 | 7 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1,800 | online | 10 | |
| Leger | May 25, 2020 | 27 | 41 | 15 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,510 | online | 14 | |
| Angus Reid | May 24, 2020 | 31 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 3 | ±1.4 pp | 5,001 | online | 6 | |
| Leger | May 17, 2020 | 25 | 44 | 15 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,513 | online | 19 | |
| Abacus Data | May 17, 2020 | HTML | 31 | 39 | 16 | 7 | 6 | N/A | N/A | ±2.3 pp | 1,800 | online | 8 |
| Leger | May 10, 2020 | 28 | 41 | 17 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 1 | ±2.51 pp | 1,526 | online | 13 | |
| Mainstreet Research | May 7, 2020 | HTML | 29.4 | 43.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | ±2.6 pp | 1,404 | IVR | 13.9 |
| EKOS | May 7, 2020 | HTML | 28.3 | 42.7 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | ±1.4 pp | 5,276 | IVR | 14.4 |
| Innovative Research | May 5, 2020 | 28 | 41 | 13 | 6 | 7 | N/A | 3 | N/A | 2,699 | online | 13 | |
| Research Co. | May 3, 2020 | 30 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | online | 9 | |
| Leger | May 3, 2020 | 25 | 44 | 15 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,526 | online | 19 | |
| Leger | April 26, 2020 | 28 | 43 | 14 | 7 | 6 | N/A | 2 | ±2.51 pp | 1,515 | online | 15 | |
| Abacus Data | April 24, 2020 | 30 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2,481 | online | 8 | |
| Leger | April 19, 2020 | 29 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 5 | N/A | 2 | ±2.53 pp | 1,504 | online | 13 | |
| Angus Reid | April 17, 2020 | 33 | 36 | 17 | 8 | 4 | N/A | 3 | ±2.2 pp | 1,912 | online | 3 | |
| Leger | April 12, 2020 | 28 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 8 | N/A | 2 | ±2.52 pp | 1,508 | online | 11 | |
| Innovative Research | April 2, 2020 | PDF [6] | 27 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | N/A | 2,059 | online | 13 |
| EKOS | March 26, 2020 | HTML | 28.6 | 40.4 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | ±2.0 pp | 2,304 | IVR | 11.8 |
| Mainstreet Research | March 17, 2020 | HTML | 32.2 | 38.6 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | ±2.4 pp | 1,665 | IVR | 6.4 |
| Leger | March 2, 2020 | 30 | 32 | 20 | 8 | 8 | N/A | 2 | ±2.50 pp | 1,540 | online | 2 | |
| Angus Reid | February 28, 2020 | 34 | 26 | 21 | 9 | 7 | N/A | 3 | ±1.4 pp | 5,043 | online | 8 | |
| Campaign Research | February 26, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 11 | N/A | 3 | ±2.5 pp | 1,606 | online | 0 |
| Nanos Research | February 21, 2020 | HTML | 36.2 | 33.0 | 15.4 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 1.4 | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,038 | telephone (rolling) | 3.2 |
| Leger | January 30, 2020 | 32 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 7 | N/A | 1 | ±2.53 pp | 1,501 | online | 2 | |
| Nanos Research | January 24, 2020 | HTML | 31.0 | 33.8 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 0.9 | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone (rolling) | 2.8 |
| Leger | January 21, 2020 | 32 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 8 | N/A | 2 | ±2.49 pp | 1,552 | online | 1 | |
| Abacus Data | January 17, 2020 | HTML | 30 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | ±2.5 pp | 1,500 | online | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | January 17, 2020 | HTML | 32.4 | 39.8 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | ±2.55 pp | 1,470 | IVR | 7.4 |
| Leger | January 7, 2020 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 8 | N/A | 2 | ±2.49 pp | 1,554 | online | 3 | |
| Abacus Data | December 16, 2019 | HTML | 30 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 2 | ±2.1 pp | 1,500 | online | 3 |
| Angus Reid | December 15, 2019 | 33 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 7 | N/A | 3 | ±2.0 pp | 2,011 | online | 3 | |
| EKOS | December 10, 2019 | 29.6 | 31.1 | 16.8 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 2.7 | ±2.0 pp | 2,339 | IVR | 1.5 | |
| Leger | November 25, 2019 | 30 | 32 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ±1.78 pp | 3,040 | online | 2 | |
| Nanos Research | November 22, 2019 | HTML | 30.9 | 33.6 | 17.2 | N/A | 9.2 | N/A | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 (3/4) | telephone (rolling) | 2.7 |
| Nanos Research | November 1, 2019 | HTML | 32.5 | 31.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | telephone (rolling) | 1.4 |
| 2019 election[7] | October 21, 2019 | HTML | 34.3 | 33.1 | 16.0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | |||
Leadership polls
Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:
October 2020 – present
| Polling firm | Last date
of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Erin O'Toole | Jagmeet Singh | Yves-François Blanchet | Annamie Paul | Maxime Bernier | Unsure | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | January 1, 2021 | 39.3 | 20.3 | 13.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 17.7 | ±3.1 pp | 19.0 | |
| Nanos Research | December 18, 2020 | 38.2 | 21.1 | 13.2 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 19.6 | ±3.1 pp | 17.1 | |
| Research Co. | December 14, 2020 | 39 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ±3.1 pp | 17 | ||
| Nanos Research | December 11, 2020 | 37.5 | 19.7 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 19.9 | ±3.1 pp | 17.8 | |
| Nanos Research | November 20, 2020 | 38.5 | 20.3 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 19.5 | ±3.1 pp | 18.2 | |
| Nanos Research | October 30, 2020 | 39.0 | 20.1 | 12.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 21.0 | ±3.1 pp | 18.9 | |
| Nanos Research | October 23, 2020 | 37.7 | 21.6 | 12.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 20.5 | ±3.1 pp | 16.1 | |
| Nanos Research | October 16, 2020 | 38.5 | 23.0 | 11.1 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 20.1 | ±3.1 pp | 15.0 | |
| Nanos Research | October 9, 2020 | 37.1 | 22.5 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 19.7 | ±3.1 pp | 14.6 |
August 2020 – October 2020
| Polling firm | Last date
of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Erin O'Toole | Jagmeet Singh | Yves-François Blanchet | Elizabeth May | Maxime Bernier | Unsure | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | September 25, 2020 | 35.6 | 22.8 | 13.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 19.9 | ±3.1 pp | 12.8 | |
| Nanos Research | September 4, 2020 | 34.4 | 20.2 | 15.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 20.5 | ±3.1 pp | 14.2 |
October 2019 – August 2020
| Polling firm | Last date
of polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Andrew Scheer | Jagmeet Singh | Yves-François Blanchet | Elizabeth May | Maxime Bernier | Unsure | Margin of error[1] |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | August 21, 2020 | 33.9 | 18.6 | 14.3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 21.4 | ±3.1 pp | 15.3 | |
| Innovative Research | August 18, 2020 | 47 | 21 | 22 | 6 | 5 | N/A | 26 | |||
| Nanos Research | August 7, 2020 | 32.6 | 20.7 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 19.2 | ±3.1 pp | 11.9 | |
| Nanos Research | July 17, 2020 | 35.6 | 19.7 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 12.7 | ±3.1 pp | 15.9 | |
| Nanos Research | June 26, 2020 | 40.2 | 18.0 | 13.7 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 13.2 | ±3.1 pp | 22.2 | |
| Nanos Research | June 12, 2020 | 39.1 | 16.9 | 14.4 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 13.3 | ±3.1 pp | 22.2 | |
| Nanos Research | May 29, 2020 | 38.8 | 15.5 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 13.2 | ±3.1 pp | 23.3 | |
| Nanos Research | May 15, 2020 | 37.5 | 17.2 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 13.2 | ±3.1 pp | 20.3 | |
| Nanos Research | May 8, 2020 | 38.0 | 17.0 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 12.0 | ±3.1 pp | 21.0 | |
| Nanos Research | May 1, 2020 | 37.1 | 17.8 | 15.5 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 11.5 | ±3.1 pp | 19.3 | |
| Nanos Research | April 24, 2020 | 38.0 | 17.3 | 15.7 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 11.2 | ±3.1 pp | 20.7 | |
| Nanos Research | April 17, 2020 | 37.4 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 14.8 | ±3.1 pp | 21.1 | |
| Nanos Research | April 10, 2020 | 37.6 | 17.1 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 16.5 | ±3.1 pp | 20.5 | |
| Nanos Research | April 3, 2020 | 35.4 | 17.8 | 14.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 19.8 | ±3.1 pp | 17.6 | |
| Nanos Research | March 27, 2020 | 31.9 | 19.7 | 13.2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 23.3 | ±3.1 pp | 12.2 | |
| Nanos Research | March 20, 2020 | 30.7 | 21.4 | 12.8 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 22.9 | ±3.1 pp | 9.3 | |
| Nanos Research | March 13, 2020 | 32.3 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 23.1 | ±3.1 pp | 13.1 | |
| Nanos Research | March 6, 2020 | 32.6 | 20.6 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 22.6 | ±3.1 pp | 12.0 | |
| Nanos Research | February 28, 2020 | 31.9 | 19.7 | 13.2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 23.3 | ±3.1 pp | 12.2 | |
| Nanos Research | February 14, 2020 | 34.0 | 21.0 | 12.4 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 22.3 | ±3.1 pp | 13.0 | |
| Nanos Research | February 7, 2020 | 34.5 | 20.6 | 12.9 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 21.2 | ±3.1 pp | 13.9 | |
| Nanos Research | January 31, 2020 | 33.3 | 20.1 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 21.0 | ±3.1 pp | 13.2 | |
| Nanos Research | January 24, 2020 | 33.3 | 19.8 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 20.6 | ±3.1 pp | 13.5 | |
| Nanos Research | January 17, 2020 | 32.8 | 19.6 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 21.1 | ±3.1 pp | 13.2 | |
| Nanos Research | January 10, 2020 | 31.0 | 20.9 | 14.4 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 20.7 | ±3.1 pp | 10.1 | |
| Nanos Research | January 3, 2020 | 32.2 | 21.1 | 15.1 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 20.1 | ±3.1 pp | 11.1 | |
| Nanos Research | December 27, 2019 | 34.4 | 21.1 | 14.4 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 19.4 | ±3.1 pp | 13.3 | |
| Nanos Research | December 20, 2019 | 36.0 | 21.0 | 15.9 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 16.2 | ±3.1 pp | 15.0 | |
| Nanos Research | December 13, 2019 | 35.8 | 21.9 | 16.1 | 2.6 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 15.3 | ±3.1 pp | 13.9 | |
| Nanos Research | December 6, 2019 | 36.6 | 22.0 | 15.4 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 14.6 | ±3.1 pp | 14.6 | |
| Nanos Research | November 29, 2019 | 38.2 | 21.5 | 15.1 | 2.7 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 14.0 | ±3.1 pp | 16.7 | |
| Nanos Research | November 22, 2019 | 35.1 | 22.0 | 15.4 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 15.3 | ±3.1 pp | 13.1 | |
| Nanos Research | November 15, 2019 | 32.3 | 23.9 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 13.5 | ±3.1 pp | 8.4 | |
| Nanos Research | November 8, 2019 | 31.1 | 24.9 | 19.0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 13.5 | ±3.1 pp | 6.2 | |
| Nanos Research | November 1, 2019 | 30.0 | 27.0 | 17.3 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 13.6 | ±3.1 pp | 3.0 |
See also
Notes
- 1 Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
- 2 Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
- 3 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
- 4 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
- 5 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
- 6 Percent voting intentions given in the report have been adjusted to reflect only decided/leaning voters for consistency among poll results in the table.
- 7 Party columns are ordered from largest to smallest share of the popular vote in the 2019 election, not according to the number of seats won.
References
- "The battle to keep this country together will be harder in some provinces than others". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. October 27, 2019.
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