Chinese Century

The Chinese Century is a neologism suggesting that the 21st century will be geopolitically dominated by the People's Republic of China, similar to how "the American Century" refers to the 20th century and "Pax Britannica" ("British Peace") refers to the 19th.[1] The phrase is used particularly in the assertion that the economy of China will overtake the economy of the United States as the largest national economy in the world,[2] a position it held in the 16th, 17th century and early 19th century.[3] The Economist has argued that the "Chinese Century" is well under way, citing China's overtaking of the U.S economy in 2013, if calculated on a purchasing-power-parity basis.[4]

China created the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as an alternative to NATO[5][6][7] and created the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank as both alternatives to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.[8][9] China further created the Belt and Road Initiative, with future investments of almost $1 trillion,[10] to push for taking a bigger role in global affairs.[11][12]

In 2015, PRC launched Made in China 2025 strategic plan to further develop the manufacturing sector and aiming to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries, growing from labor-intensive workshops into a more technology-intensive powerhouse. In November 2020, China signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as free trade agreement[13][14][15] in counter to Trans-Pacific Partnership.[16][17][18] The deal has been considered by some commentators as a "huge victory" for China in geopolitics.[19][20]

China's emergence as a global economic power is tied to its large, working population.[21] However, the population in China is aging faster than almost all other countries in history.[21][22] Current demographic trends could hinder economic growth, create challenging social problems, and limit China's capabilities to act as a new global hegemony.[21][23][24][25]

Debates and factors

Top five countries by military expenditure in 2016.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.[26]

In 2011, Michael Beckley, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, released his journal China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure which rejects the idea that:

the United States is in decline relative to China and;
the hegemonic burdens the United States bears to sustain globalized, unipolar system contributes to its decline.

Alternatively, Beckley argues the United States’ power is durable, and unipolarity and globalization are the main reasons. He contends: "The United States derives competitive advantages from its preponderant position, and globalization allows it to exploit these advantages, attracting economic activity and manipulating the international system to its benefit."[27]

Beckley believes that if the United States was in terminal decline, it would adopt neomercantilist economic policies and disengage from military commitments in Asia. "If however, the United States is not in decline, and if globalization and hegemony are the main reasons why, then the United States should do the opposite: it should contain China’s growth by maintaining a liberal international economic policy, and it should subdue China’s ambitions by sustaining a robust political and military presence in Asia."[27] Beckley believes that the United States benefits from being an extant hegemon—the US did not overturn the international order to its benefit in 1990, but rather, the existing order collapsed around it.

Scholars that are skeptical of the US' ability to maintain unipolarity include Robert Pape, who has calculated that "one of the largest relative declines in modern history" stems from "the spread of technology to the rest of the world".[28] Similarly, Fareed Zakaria writes, "The unipolar order of the last two decades is waning not because of Iraq but because of the broader diffusion of power across the world."[29] Paul Kipchumba in Africa in China's 21st Century: In Search of a Strategy predicts a deadly cold war between the US and China in the 21st century, and, if that cold war does not occur, he predicts China will supplant the US in all aspects of global hegemony.[30]

Rapid aging

China's emergence as a global economic power is tied to its large, working population.[21] However, the population in China is aging faster than almost all other countries in history.[21][22] In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will become 39 percent of the total population. China is rapidly aging at an earlier stage of its development than other countries.[21] Current demographic trends could hinder economic growth, create challenging social problems, and limit China's capabilities to act as a new global hegemony.[21][23][24][25]

Brendan O'Reilly, a guest expert at Geopolitical Intelligence Services, wrote, "A dark scenario of demographic decline sparking a negative feedback loop of economic crisis, political instability, emigration and further decreased fertility is very real for China".[31][32]

Economic growth and debt

China's increased lending has been primarily driven by its desire to increase economic growth as fast as possible. The performance of local government officials has for decades been evaluated almost entirely on their ability to produce economic growth. Amanda Lee reports in South China Morning Post that "as China’s growth has slowed, there are growing concerns that many of these debts are at risk of default, which could trigger a systemic crisis in China’s state-dominated financial system".[33]

Diana Choyleva of Enodo Economics predicts that China's debt ratio will soon surpass that of Japan at the peak of its crisis.[34] Choyleva argues "For evidence that Beijing realizes it is drowning in debt and needs a lifebuoy, look no further than the government's own actions. It is finally injecting a degree of pricing discipline into the corporate bond market and it is actively encouraging foreign investors to help finance the reduction of a huge pile of bad debt."[34]

China's debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 178% in the first quarter of 2010 to 275% in the first quarter of 2020.[34] China's debt-to-GDP ratio approached 335% in the second and third quarters of 2020.[33]

The PRC government regularly revises its GDP figures, often toward the end of the year. Because local governments face political pressure to meet pre-set growth targets, many doubt the accuracy of the statistics.[35]

References

Rees-Mogg, William (3 January 2005). "This is the Chinese century". The Times. London. Retrieved 12 September 2009.
Elliott, Michael (2007-01-22). "China Takes On the World". Time Magazine.
http://glavkonstruktor.ru/upload/img/ADFQtcg.png
"The Chinese century is well under way". The Economist. 2018-10-27. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-01-28.
Fredholm, Michael (2013). The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Eurasian Geopolitics: New Directions, Perspectives, and Challenges. NIAS Press. ISBN 9788776941079.
Chomsky, Noam (2012-02-23). Making the Future: Occupations, Interventions, Empire and Resistance. Penguin UK. ISBN 9780141967875.
Schneider, David K. "Archive: Shanghai Cooperation Organization - A league of Autocracies". University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Archived from the original on 25 December 2016. Retrieved 26 December 2016.
"AIIB Vs. NDB: Can New Players Change the Rules of Development Financing?". Caixin. Retrieved 26 December 2016.
Cohn, Theodore H. (2016-05-05). Global Political Economy: Theory and Practice. Routledge. ISBN 9781317334811.
"China is spending nearly $1 trillion to rebuild the Silk Road". PBS. 2 March 2016. Retrieved 7 January 2017.
"China's one belt, one road initiative set to transform economy by connecting with trading partners along ancient Silk Road". South China Morning Post. 21 June 2016. Retrieved 7 January 2017.
"One Belt, One Road". Caixin Online. 2014-12-10. Retrieved 2016-04-13.
"RCEP: China, ASEAN to sign world's biggest trade pact today, leave door open for India". Business Today. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
"RCEP: Asia-Pacific countries form world's largest trading bloc". BBC News. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
"China signs huge Asia Pacific trade deal with 14 countries". CNN. Retrieved 16 November 2020.
"China Touts Its Own Trade Pact as U.S.-Backed One Withers". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2 February 2017.
"Beijing plans rival Asia-Pacific trade deal after Trump victory". Financial Times. Retrieved 2 February 2017.
"China Eager to Fill Political Vacuum Created by Trump's TPP Withdrawal". Bloomberg News. Retrieved 2 February 2017.
"World's biggest trade deal signed – and doesn't include US". South China Morning Post. 2020-11-15. Retrieved 2020-12-01.
"RCEP, a huge victory in rough times".
"Does China have an aging problem?". ChinaPower Project. Feb 15, 2016. Retrieved 2019-05-16.
Kapadia, Reshma (September 7, 2019). "What Americans Can Learn From the Rest of the World About Retirement". Barron's. Retrieved February 3, 2021.
Tozzo, Brandon (October 18, 2017). "The Demographic and Economic Problems of China". American Hegemony after the Great Recession. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 79–92. doi:10.1057/978-1-137-57539-5_5. ISBN 978-1-137-57538-8.
Eberstadt, Nicholas (June 11, 2019). "With Great Demographics Comes Great Power". Foreign Affairs. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
Sasse, Ben (January 26, 2020). "The Responsibility to Counter China's Ambitions Falls to Us". The Atlantic. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
"Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2016" (PDF). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Retrieved 24 April 2017.
Beckley, Michael (Winter 2011–2012). "China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure" (PDF). International Security. 36 (3): 41–78, p. 42. doi:10.1162/isec_a_00066. S2CID 57567205. Retrieved 13 November 2012.
Pape, Robert (January–February 2009). "Empire Falls". The National Interest: 26. Retrieved 13 November 2012.
Zakaria, Fareed (2009). The Post-American World. New York: W. W. Norton. p. 43. ISBN 9780393334807.
Kipchumba, Paul, Africa in China's 21st Century: In Search of a Strategy, Nairobi: Kipchumba Foundation, 2017, ISBN 197345680X ISBN 978-1973456803
"Changes in the structure of populations are major drivers of geopolitical events". Geopolitical Intelligence Services. December 20, 2017. Retrieved February 3, 2021.
O'Reilly, Brendan (September 21, 2016). "China has few resources to prepare its economy for the impact of an aging and shrinking population". Geopolitical Intelligence Services. Retrieved February 3, 2021.
"How big is China's debt, who owns it and what is next?". South China Morning Post. 2020-05-19. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
"China's local government debts should be the real worry". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 2021-02-06.
Cheng, Evelyn (2020-12-30). "China revises 2019 GDP lower with a $77 billion cut to manufacturing". CNBC. Retrieved 2021-02-06.

Chinese Century

Debates and factors

Rapid aging

Economic growth and debt

See also

References

Further reading

China