Next Italian general election

The next Italian general election is due to be held no later than 1 June 2023.[lower-alpha 1]

Next Italian general election

No later than 1 June 2023[lower-alpha 1]
All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies 200 seats in the Senate of the Republic
Opinion polls
Leader Vito Crimi (acting) Matteo Salvini Nicola Zingaretti Party Five Star Movement League Democratic Party Leader since 22 January 2020 15 December 2013 17 March 2019 Leader's seat Lombardy (S) Lazio (S)[lower-alpha 2] Did not stand Last election 227 C / 112 S 32.7% 125 C / 58 S 17.4% 112 C / 53 S 18.8% Current seats 190 C / 92 S 131 C / 63 S 93 C / 37 S   Leader Silvio Berlusconi Giorgia Meloni Matteo Renzi Party Forward Italy Brothers of Italy Italy Alive Leader since 16 November 2013 8 March 2014 18 September 2019 Leader's seat Did not stand Latina (C) Tuscany (S) Last election 106 C / 58 S 14.0% 32 C / 18 S 4.3% Did not contest Current seats 92 C / 52 S 33 C / 19 S 28 C / 18 S
Incumbent Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte Independent

Under the current Constitution, voters would elect 400 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 200 members of the Senate of the Republic for the 19th Legislature of the Italian Republic.

Background

In the 2018 Italian general election, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.[4] On 4 March, the centre-right alliance, in which Matteo Salvini's League emerged as the main political force, won a plurality of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate, while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) led by Luigi Di Maio became the party with the largest number of votes. The centre-left coalition, led by Matteo Renzi, came third.[5] As a result, protracted negotiations were required before a new government could be formed.

The talks between the Five Star Movement and the League resulted in the proposal of the so-called "government of change" under the leadership of university professor Giuseppe Conte, a law professor close to the M5S.[6] After some bickering with President Sergio Mattarella,[7][8] Conte's cabinet, which was dubbed by the media as Western European "first all-populist government", was sworn in on 1 June.[9]

In August 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced a motion of no confidence against Conte, after growing tensions within the majority.[10][11] Many political analysts believe the no confidence motion was an attempt to force early elections to improve Lega's standing in Parliament, ensuring Salvini could become the next Prime Minister.[12] On 20 August, following the parliamentary debate in which Conte harshly accused Salvini of being a political opportunist who "had triggered the political crisis only to serve his personal interest",[13] the Prime Minister resigned his post to President Sergio Mattarella.[14]

On 21 August, Mattarella started the consultations with all the parliamentary groups. On the same day, the national direction of the Democratic Party (PD) officially opened to a cabinet with the Five Star Movement,[13] based on pro-Europeanism, a green economy, sustainable development, the fight against economic inequality and a new immigration policy.[15] However, the talks with President Mattarella resulted in an unclear outcome; thus, Mattarella announced a second round of consultation for 27 or 28 August.[16]

In the days that preceded the second round, a confrontation between the PD and M5S started,[17] while the left-wing Free and Equal (LeU) announced that they would support a potential M5S–PD cabinet.[18] On 28 August, the leader of the Democratic Party, Nicola Zingaretti, announced at the Quirinal Palace his favorable position on forming a new government with the Five Stars with Giuseppe Conte at its head.[19] On same day, Mattarella summoned Conte to the Quirinal Palace for the 29 August to give him the task of forming a new cabinet.[20] On 3 September, the members of the Five Star Movement voted on the so-called "Rousseau Platform" in favor of an agreement with the Democrats, under the premiership of Giuseppe Conte, with more than 79% of votes out of nearly 80,000 voters.[21] On 4 September, Conte announced the ministers of his new cabinet, which was sworn in at the Quirinal Palace on the following day.[22]

Under Conte's governments, the Italian Parliament approved the so-called "Fraccaro Reform", from the name of the M5S deputy who was the bill's first signatory.[23] The reform was finally approved by the Parliament, with the fourth and final vote in the Chamber of Deputies on 8 October 2019 with 553 votes in favor and 14 against. In the final vote, the bill was supported both by the majority and the opposition;[24] only the liberal party More Europe (+Eu) and other small groups voted against.[25] The reform provided a cut in the number of MPs, which would shrink from 630 to 400 deputies and from 315 to 200 senators.[26] On 20 and 21 September 2020, Italians largely approved the reform with nearly 70% of votes.[27]

Electoral system

After the 2020 Italian constitutional referendum, the Italian electoral law of 2017 (Rosatellum), used in 2018 Italian general election, was initially expected to be replaced entirely or its FPTP single-member districts be redesigned on the Italian territory for the next elections with 600 MPs.[28][29] The single-member districts changes were eventually approved and published on 30 December in the Italian government gazette Gazzetta Ufficiale: the Chamber of Deputies went down from 232 to 147 districts, the Senate down from 116 to 74.[30][31]

Date of the election

According to articles 60 and 61 of the Italian Constitution the election of both Houses of Parliament must take place every five years and no later than seventy days after the end of the previous legislature.[32]

Parties and leaders

This is a list of the main active parties which would likely participate in the election and are polled in most opinion surveys.

Party		Ideology	Leader	Current seats
				Deputies	Senators
	Five Star Movement (M5S)	Populism	Vito Crimi (acting)	190	92
	League (Lega)	Right-wing populism	Matteo Salvini	131	63
	Forza Italia (FI)	Liberal conservatism	Silvio Berlusconi	91	52
	Democratic Party (PD)	Social democracy	Nicola Zingaretti	93	37
	Brothers of Italy (FdI)	National conservatism	Giorgia Meloni	33	19
	Italia Viva (IV)	Liberalism	Matteo Renzi	28	17
	Article One (Art.1)	Social democracy	Roberto Speranza	6	1
	Cambiamo! (C!)	Liberal conservatism	Giovanni Toti	5	2
	Italian Left (SI)	Democratic socialism	Nicola Fratoianni	2	1
	Action (Azione)	Social liberalism	Carlo Calenda	3	1
	More Europe (+Eu)	Liberalism	Benedetto Della Vedova	1	1
	Green Europe (EV)	Green politics	Angelo Bonelli	0	0

Opinion polls

6-point average trend line of poll results from 4 March 2018 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

  M5S

  PD

  Lega

  FI

  FdI

  LeU/LS (A1+SI)

  +Eu

  NcI

  PaP

  EV

  C!

  A

  IV

Notes

1. While elections in Italy are usually held on a Sunday or Sunday and Monday, there's no constitutional provision to do so; therefore, the latest possibile date for a general election is always the 70th day after the expiration of the previous Parliament's five-year term.
2. At the 2018 Italian general election Salvini ran as capolista (list leader) for the League in five constituencies, namely Calabria 1, Lazio 1, Lombardy 4, Liguria 1 and Sicily 2.[1] He was originally elected in the Calabria 1 constituency. On 31 July 2019 the electoral commission of the Senate finally ruled for assigning Salvini's contested seat to Forza Italia; Salvini then took the Lazio 1 seat in substitution of the League senator Papaevangeliu.[2][3]

References

1. "Elezioni: Salvini Capolista al Senato in 5 circosrizioni" (in Italian). agvilvelino.it. 29 January 2018. Retrieved 12 September 2019.
2. Tornago, Andrea (17 July 2019). "Salvini vicino a perdere il seggio in Calabria. Traballa la maggioranza del governo in Senato". Repubblica.it (in Italian). Retrieved 19 September 2019.
3. "senato.it - Scheda di attività di Matteo SALVINI - XVIII Legislatura". senato.it (in Italian). Senate of the Republic. Retrieved 19 September 2019.
4. Sala, Alessandro (2018). "Elezioni 2018: M5S primo partito, nel centrodestra la Lega supera FI".
5. "Elezioni politiche: vincono M5s e Lega. Crollo del Partito democratico. Centrodestra prima coalizione. Il Carroccio sorpassa Forza Italia". 4 March 2018.
6. "Conte says to be Italians' defence lawyer in govt of change" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
7. "Mattarella meets Conte, 'vetoed' Savona" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
8. "Conte drops govt bid" Archived 29 May 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
9. "Governo Conte, la lista di tutti i ministri: Salvini all’Interno e Di Maio al Welfare. Saranno vicepremier" Archived 1 June 2018 at the Wayback Machine.
10. "La Lega presenta al Senato una mozione di sfiducia a Conte. M5S attacca Salvini: "Giullare"". rainews.
11. "Il Senato ha bocciato la mozione del M5S sulla TAV". Il Post (in Italian). 7 August 2019. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
12. Squires, Nick (August 9, 2019). "Italy's League files no confidence motion in prime minister in bid to trigger election". The Telegraph – via www.telegraph.co.uk.
13. Giuffrida, Angela (August 20, 2019). "Italian PM resigns with attack on 'opportunist' Salvini". The Guardian – via www.theguardian.com.
14. Horowitz, Jason (August 20, 2019). "Italy's Government Collapses, Turning Chaos Into Crisis". The New York Times.
15. "Governo, Zingaretti: "I 5 punti per trattare con il M5S. No accordicchi, governo di svolta"". Repubblica.it. August 21, 2019.
16. "Crisi di governo, secondo giro di consultazioni al Colle". Tgcom24. Archived from the original on 2019-08-27. Retrieved 2019-09-04.
17. "Ecco l'accordo sul Conte bis: Zingaretti dà il via libera, nodo su ministeri e manovra". Fanpage.it (in Italian). Retrieved 2021-01-31.
18. "Grasso, possibile intesa M5s-Pd-Leu - Ultima Ora". Agenzia ANSA. August 19, 2019.
19. "Italy's Conte might be back at helm with Salvini shut out". Washington Post.
20. "C'è l'accordo tra M5s e Pd. Governo giallorosso ai nastri di partenza". Agi (in Italian). Retrieved 2021-01-31.
21. "Governo, via libera di Rousseau all'intesa M5s-Pd con il 79% dei voti. Conte domattina al Quirinale". Repubblica.it. September 3, 2019.
22. "Italy swears in new coalition government | DW | 05.09.2019". Deutsche Welle. 5 September 2019. Retrieved 1 October 2019.
23. "La Camera approva la riforma Fraccaro. Via al taglio dei parlamentari - TGR Trento". TGR. Archived from the original on 24 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
24. Sciorilli Borrelli, Silvia (8 October 2019). "Italian lawmakers want fewer Italian lawmakers". POLITICO. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
25. "Taglio dei parlamentari, Orfini: "La riforma fa schifo". Chi sono i contrari". it.notizie.yahoo.com. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
26. "Italy shrinks parliament 'to save €1bn'". BBC News. 8 October 2019. Archived from the original on 9 October 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2019.
27. Elezioni e Referendum 2020, risultati in diretta: vince il Sì con il 69%. Toscana e la Puglia restano a sinistra: vittorie di Giani ed Emiliano. Marche a destra. Plebisciti per Zaia e De Luca, Toti si tiene la Liguria, Il Fatto Quotidiano
28. "La nuova legge elettorale, il testo base è in commissione" [New electoral law, the text entered evaluation]. Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (in Italian). 7 September 2020. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
29. "Taglio dei parlamentari: perché serve anche una nuova legge elettorale" [MPs cut: why a new electoral law is needed]. Corriere della Sera (in Italian). 23 August 2019. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
30. "Simulazione YouTrend: se si votasse oggi con i nuovi collegi del Rosatellum?" [YouTrend simulation: what if we would vote today with the new Rosatellum districts?]. YouTrend (in Italian). 11 January 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
31. "Riduzione dei parlamentari, pubblicati in Gazzetta i nuovi collegi di Camera e Senato" [MPs reduction, new districts of Chamber and Senate published in the Gazzetta]. Centropagina.it (in Italian). 30 December 2020. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
32. "Constitution of the Italian Republic" (PDF). senato.it. Senate of the Republic. Retrieved 14 November 2019.