Opinion polling for the 2015 Spanish local elections (Andalusia)

In the run up to the 2015 Spanish local elections, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain. Results of such polls for municipalities in Andalusia are displayed in this article. The date ranges for these opinion polls is from the previous local elections, held on 22 May 2011, to the day the next elections were held, on 24 May 2015.

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll.

Municipalities

Algeciras

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV			ASSP		Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	45.8	43.9 14	21.6 6	7.2 2	3.4 0	1.1 0	11.9 3	7.4 2	22.3
Tresochenta/La Verdad[1]	22 Apr–8 May 2015	600	61.7	41.0 13/14	17.0 5	6.4 1/2	5.7 1	–	11.8 3	9.5 2/3	24.0
Insobel/8TV[2]	30 Apr 2015	600	?	49.1 15/16	15.3 4/5	6.0 1/2	5.8 1	–	10.7 3	9.2 2/3	33.8
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][4]	20–22 Apr 2015	300	52	41.6 13	23.9 7	4.7 0	2.2 0	–	12.6 3/4	12.6 3/4	17.7
Insobel/8TV[5][6]	10–16 Dec 2014	600	?	49.5 15	19.3 5/6	8.5 2	6.4 1/2	2.0 0	10.6 3	–	30.2
Insobel/8TV[7][8]	26–30 May 2014	600	?	50.2 15/16	16.9 5/6	8.8 2/3	7.3 2	3.8 0	8.6 2/3	–	33.3
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	50.4	51.8 16	18.7 6	12.2 3	7.7 2	3.1 0	–	–	33.1

Almería

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV		GASSP		Ahora	Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	52.8	40.4 13	27.0 9	7.0 2	2.2 0	3.5 0	10.0 3	3.7 0	13.4
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][10]	24 May 2015	?	?	38.1 12/14	? 8/9	8.5 2/3	–	5.8 1	11.2 2/3	–	?
Deimos/La Voz de Almería[11]	17 May 2015	?	?	41.2 13/14	26.1 7/8	5.7 0/1	–	6.6 0/1	16.2 4/5	5.7 0/1	15.1
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][12]	22–24 Apr 2015	400	?	46.4 14	22.3 6/7	5.4 0/1	–	12.5 3	10.2 3	–	24.1
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	56.6	58.5 18	22.8 7	8.6 2	3.7 0	–	–	–	35.7

Cádiz

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV			Ganar Cádiz	PCSSP		Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	65.3	33.8 10	17.3 5	[lower-alpha 1]	1.1 0	1.4 0	8.4 2	27.9 8	7.2 2	5.9
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][13][14]	24 May 2015	?	?	29.4 8/9	17.8 5/6	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	9.7 2/3	28.3 8/9	9.1 2/3	1.1
Insobel/8TV[15][16]	5–8 May 2015	600	?	34.6 10/11	18.9 5/6	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	5.4 1	21.1 6	13.5 4	13.5
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][17]	16–29 Apr 2015	400	60	36.2 11	16.9 5	[lower-alpha 1]	2.3 0	–	5.0 0	21.6 7	15.0 4	14.6
IMC/La Voz[18][19]	27–28 Apr 2015	400	?	43.7 13/14	16.1 4/6	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	5.3 0/2	15.0 3/5	15.3 4/6	27.6
Insobel/8TV[20][21]	29 Oct–6 Nov 2014	600	?	51.3 16	22.9 7	9.9 3	3.8 0	–	5.8 1	–	–	28.4
Insobel/8TV[22][23]	9 May 2014	?	?	48.6 15	23.9 7	12.5 4	5.5 1	–	–	–	–	24.7
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	56.8	56.3 17	22.2 7	9.5 3	3.6 0	2.0 0	–	–	–	34.1

Córdoba

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV						Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	57.1	34.7 11	5.7 1	12.0 4	20.6 7	1.0 0	0.5 0	12.6 4	8.6 2	14.1
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][10]	24 May 2015	?	?	? 11/13	? 0/1	? 3/4	? 7/8	–	–	? 4/5	? 2/3	?
Enquest/Diario Córdoba[24]	28–30 Apr 2015	?	?	32.3 10/12	2.3 0	16.0 5	20.9 6/7	1.6 0	0.5 0	14.0 4/5	11.3 3/4	11.4
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][25][26]	16–29 Apr 2015	400	60	36.5 12	–	14.2 4	17.2 5	–	–	13.6 4	14.4 4	19.3
IMC[27]	6–9 Apr 2015	?	?	41.1 14/15	3.2 0/1	9.4 3	18.5 6	–	–	11.2 3	10.6 3	22.6
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	63.5	48.8 16	15.2 5	14.8 4	12.0 4	1.8 0	0.9 0	–	–	33.6

Granada

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV		LV			Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	59.8	35.6 11	25.9 8	5.9 1	2.1 0	–	12.8 3	14.1 4	9.7
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][10]	24 May 2015	?	?	36.4 10/12	25.4 7/8	5.0 0/1	–	–	13.9 3/4	13.3 3/4	11.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][28]	22–24 Apr 2015	400	63	41.0 12	29.5 8	6.2 1	–	–	11.1 3	10.1 3	11.5
PSOE[29]	Nov 2013	?	?	39.5	36.5	8.2	6.8	3.2	–	–	3.0
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	63.1	51.9 16	27.2 8	7.8 2	5.3 1	2.6 0	–	–	24.7

Huelva

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV			PH		Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	52.1	26.7 8	35.3 11	10.0 3	6.4 1	1.0 0	5.3 1	10.1 3	8.6
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][10]	24 May 2015	?	?	23.0 6/7	33.5 9/11	12.0 4/5	–	–	–	9.0 2/3	10.5
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][30]	28–29 Apr 2015	400	58	33.3 10	32.7 9	8.8 2	–	–	10.6 3	10.4 3	0.6
Dialoga Consultores/PP[31][32]	14–17 Apr 2015	1,002	?	37.6 13/14	28.7 9/10	7.2 1/2	3.5 0/1	4.2 0/1	8.5 1/2	5.7 1/2	8.9
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	55.7	45.3 14	30.5 9	10.1 3	5.4 1	1.9 0	–	–	14.8

Jaén

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV					Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	60.9	38.4 12	29.5 9	4.1 0	1.3 0	0.9 0	10.3 3	11.3 3	8.9
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][10]	24 May 2015	?	?	36.0 10/12	30.0 8/9	3.5 0	–	–	11.0 2/3	12.0 3/4	6.0
AEMMO/Diario Jaén[33][34]	12 Jul 2014	1,000	?	47.8 14/15	26.0 8	5.7 1	6.1 1	1.4 0	9.5 2/3	–	21.8
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	69.2	51.8 14	35.1 9	5.9 3	3.2 0	1.3 0	–	–	16.7

Jerez de la Frontera

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			FCJ	IULV			GJ		Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	54.7	34.1 11	24.2 7	7.3 2	3.3 0	2.2 0	1.3 0	16.2 5	8.9 2	9.9
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][35]	25–27 Apr 2015	400	60	33.4 10	29.6 8	–	5.4 1	–	–	18.0 5	11.3 3	3.8
Celeste-Tel/Grupo Viva[36][37]	17–24 Sep 2014	600	56.7	46.4 14/15	13.4 4	12.3 3/4	8.3 2	2.7 0	2.4 0	11.0 3	–	33.0
Insobel/8TV[38][39]	5–10 May 2014	600	?	49.9 15/16	12.7 4	8.5 3	13.4 4	4.5 0	5.3 0/1	–	–	36.5
Celeste-Tel/Grupo Viva[40][41]	28 Apr–8 May 2014	600	57.1	44.8 14	16.0 5	13.6 4	13.4 4	3.8 0	4.8 0	–	–	28.8
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	60.6	46.6 15	14.6 5	14.0 4	11.5 3	4.0 0	3.1 0	–	–	32.0

La Línea de la Concepción

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV				G		Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	45.4	20.4 5	34.1 9	6.4 1	5.2 1	1.7 0	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	31.0 9	3.1
Tresochenta/La Verdad[1]	22 Apr–8 May 2015	450	63.2	29.2 8	38.5 11	7.0 1/2	5.4 1	1.3 0	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	16.4 4	9.3
Insobel/8TV[42]	21–25 Apr 2015	450	?	31.2 8/9	36.0 10/11	6.8 1/2	5.1 0/1	1.3 0	[lower-alpha 2]	[lower-alpha 2]	16.0 4/5	4.8
Insobel/8TV[43][44]	12–17 Nov 2014	450	?	26.7 7/8	36.8 10/11	7.7 2	6.6 2	5.2 1	7.5 2	4.0 0	–	10.1
Insobel/8TV[45][46]	2–6 Jun 2014	450	?	27.8 7	36.9 10	7.2 2	9.8 3	5.3 1	7.6 2	–	–	9.1
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	52.6	40.9 11	35.1 10	8.8 2	8.6 2	–	–	–	–	5.8

Málaga

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV				Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	54.4	36.6 13	26.2 9	7.4 2	1.2 0	13.3 4	10.4 3	10.4
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[9][10]	24 May 2015	?	?	? 11/13	? 8/9	? 2/3	–	13.6 4/5	? 3/4	?
Celeste-Tel/La Opinión de Málaga[47][48]	10 May 2015	800	55.6	45.2 15	22.6 8	10.3 3	1.8 0	8.3 2	10.3 3	22.6
Sigma Dos/Diario Sur[49][50][51]	28 Apr–4 May 2015	500	?	44.4 15/16	19.4 6	8.0 2	–	11.4 3/4	13.2 4	25.0
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3][52]	16–29 Apr 2015	400	?	41.0 14	22.6 7	6.9 2	–	14.2 4	12.3 4	18.4
Ganemos Málaga[53][54]	17 Jan 2015	?	?	? 11	? 6	? 1	? 1	? 12	–	?
PSOE[55]	Jun 2014	800	?	? 15/16	? 8/9	? 3/4	–	? 3/4	–	?
Metroscopia/PP[56][57]	4–8 Apr 2014	1,200	?	? 16	? 10	? 4	? 1	–	–	?
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	55.6	53.5 19	24.8 9	11.0 3	3.5 0	–	–	28.7

San Fernando

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				CxSF	IULV		SSPSF		Lead
2015 municipal election	24 May 2015	N/A	52.5	23.2 7	29.8 8	12.4 3	–	4.7 0	1.6 0	14.4 4	10.7 3	6.6
Insobel/8TV[58][59][60]	28 Apr–4 May 2015	600	?	20.4 5/6	25.3 7	10.5 2/3	–	6.2 1	2.0 0	17.1 4/5	15.8 4	4.9
Commentia/Grupo Joly[3]	16–29 Apr 2015	300	?	25.2 7	28.7 8	7.2 2	–	5.1 1	–	13.5 3	16.1 4	3.5
Aurea Project/Grupo Viva[61][62]	16–23 Apr 2015	400	55.8	34.5 11	19.0 6	6.1 1	–	4.8 0	–	15.6 4	11.0 3	15.5
Insobel/8TV[63][64]	19–24 Nov 2014	600	?	26.1 7/8	27.5 8	5.1 1	6.3 1/2	8.1 2	6.1 1/2	16.6 4/5	–	1.4
Aurea Project/Grupo Viva[65][66]	3–22 Oct 2014	439	?	35.2 11/12	21.7 7	4.9 0/1	<5.0 0	<5.0 0	<5.0 0	18.5 6	–	13.5
2011 municipal election	22 May 2011	N/A	53.6	35.0 10	34.0 9	11.4 3	7.3 2	5.3 1	4.5 0	–	–	1.0

Seville

Notes

1. Within Ganar Cádiz.
2. Within LL100.

References

1. "La verdad algeciras, 13 de mayo". La Verdad del Campo de Gibraltar (in Spanish). 13 May 2015.
2. "ALGECIRAS (Cádiz), Abril 2015. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 April 2015.
3. "CIUDADES ANDALUZAS 24M, Abril 2015. Sondeo Commentia". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 May 2015.
4. "El PP de Landaluce se quedaría al borde de la mayoría absoluta". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
5. "Barómetro 8 sobre Algeciras (2) (2 temporada)". 8TV (in Spanish). 18 December 2014.
6. "ALGECIRAS (Cádiz), Diciembre 2014. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 December 2014.
7. "El PP de Algeciras revalidaría su amplia mayoría absoluta de haber elecciones hoy". Diario de Cádiz (in Spanish). 6 June 2014.
8. "ALGECIRAS (Cádiz), Mayo 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 June 2014.
9. "El PP perdería la mayoría absoluta en todas las capitales de Andalucía, según las encuestas a pie de urna". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
10. "El PSOE podría ganar Sevilla y Huelva y el PP perdería la mayoría absoluta en el resto de capitales andalzuas". El Plural (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
11. "PP puede perder cinco concejales y ganarlos Ciudadanos". La Voz de Almería (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
12. "Luis Rogelio podrá gobernar en solitario con 14 concejales". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
13. "Cádiz. Sondeo: TNS Demoscopia". Canal Sur (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
14. "Sondeo Canal Sur". Twitter (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
15. "Barómetro 8 sobre Cádiz 14-05-15 (2)". 8TV (in Spanish). 15 May 2015.
16. "CÁDIZ, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 May 2015.
17. "Teófila tendrá que pactar para poder mantenerse en el gobierno". Diario de Cádiz (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
18. "El PP se aferra a una mayoría absoluta que está en el aire". La Voz de Cádiz (in Spanish). 11 May 2015.
19. "CÁDIZ, Abril 2015. Sondeo IMC". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 May 2015.
20. "Barómetro 8 sobre Cádiz (2) (2 temporada)". 8TV (in Spanish). 14 November 2014.
21. "CÁDIZ, Noviembre 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 November 2014.
22. "Barómetro 8 Cádiz Capital (3)". 8TV (in Spanish). 9 May 2014.
23. "CÁDIZ, Mayo 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 May 2014.
24. "El PP ganará en Córdoba, aunque no mantendría la mayoría absoluta". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
25. "Gana el PP, pero sin tener todo el poder". El Día de Córdoba (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
26. "El PP será el partido más votado aunque pierde la mayoría absoluta". Granada Hoy (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
27. "CÓRDOBA, Abril 2015. Sondeo IMC". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 April 2015.
28. "Torres Hurtado tendrá que pactar para gobernar un cuarto mandato". Diario de Cádiz (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
29. "GRANADA, Noviembre 2013. Sondeo encargado por el PSOE". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 February 2014.
30. "Rodríguez saca un solo concejal a Cruz y queda lejos de la absoluta". Málaga Hoy (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
31. "Un sondeo encargado por el PP deja al alcalde al filo de la mayoría absoluta". Huelva Información (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
32. "HUELVA, Abril 2015. Sondeo Dialoga Consultores". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
33. "El PP renueva la mayoría absoluta en una encuesta". Diario Jaén (in Spanish). 12 July 2014.
34. "JAÉN, Junio 2014. Diario de Jaén". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 July 2014.
35. "Un tripartito de izquierdas puede arrebatar al PP de Pelayo la Alcaldía". Diario de Cádiz (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
36. "El 45,8% de los jerezanos cree que el PP volverá a ganar". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 10 October 2014.
37. "JEREZ DE LA FRONTERA (Cádiz), Septiembre 2014. Celeste-Tel". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 October 2014.
38. "Barómetro 8 Jerez de la Frontera (3)". 8TV (in Spanish). 27 May 2014.
39. "JEREZ DE LA FRONTERA (Cádiz), Mayo 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 May 2014.
40. "El PP revalida su mayoría absoluta a un año del 24-M" (PDF). Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 20 May 2014.
41. "JEREZ DE LA FRONTERA (Cádiz), Mayo 2014. Celeste-Tel". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 May 2014.
42. "LA LÍNEA DE LA CONCEPCIÓN (Cádiz), Abril 2015. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 April 2015.
43. "Barómetro 8 sobre La Línea de la Concepción (2) (2 temporada)". 8TV (in Spanish). 21 November 2014.
44. "LA LÍNEA (Cádiz), Noviembre 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 November 2014.
45. "PSOE y PA, sin alternativa, tendrían hoy mayoría en La Línea". Diario de Cádiz (in Spanish). 13 June 2014.
46. "LA LÍNEA DE LA CONCEPCIÓN (Cádiz), Junio 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 13 June 2014.
47. "La primera encuesta deja a De la Torre a un sólo concejal de la mayoría absoluta". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
48. "MÁLAGA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Celeste-Tel". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
49. "De la Torre gana con holgura en Málaga pero no tiene garantizada la mayoría absoluta". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
50. "De la Torre vencería en Málaga, pero no tiene garantizada la mayoría absoluta". Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
51. "MÁLAGA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo SigmaDos". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
52. "De la Torre ganaría las elecciones pero no mantendría la mayoría absoluta". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
53. "Un sector de Ganemos Málaga concurrirá a las municipales como agrupación de electores". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 20 January 2015.
54. "MÁLAGA, Enero 2015. Sondeo interno Ganemos Málaga". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 January 2015.
55. "MÁLAGA, Junio 2014. Sondeo interno del PSOE-A". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 October 2014.
56. "El alcalde tiene prácticamente decidido el sí a ser el candidato para las municipales". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 May 2014.
57. "MÁLAGA, Mayo 2014. Metroscopia". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 May 2014.
58. "Barómetro 8 sobre San Fernando 07-05-15 (2)". 8TV (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
59. "Baja el PP en San Fernando. Barómetro de 8TV". Grupo Joly (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
60. "SAN FERNANDO (Cádiz), Mayo 2015. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
61. "O la estabilidad o la convulsión". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 6 May 2015.
62. "SAN FERNANDO (Cádiz), Abril 2015. Sondeo Aurea Project". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
63. "Barómetro 8 sobre San Fernando (2) (2 temporada)". 8TV (in Spanish). 27 November 2014.
64. "SAN FERNANDO (Cádiz), Noviembre 2014. Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 November 2014.
65. "El PP sacaría hoy 12-11 concejales, 7 el PSOE, 6 Podemos y entre 0-1 el PA". Andalucía Información (in Spanish). 27 November 2014.
66. "SAN FERNANDO (Cádiz), Octubre 2014. Aurea Project". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 November 2014.