2004 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Arizona

November 2, 2004
Turnout	77.10%
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,104,294 893,524 Percentage 54.77% 44.32%
County Results Bush   50-60%   60-70% Kerry   50-60%   60-70%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Arizona was won by incumbent George W. Bush by 10.5%. Prior to the election, 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004, in the city of Tempe.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Arizona was won with a double-digit margin of victory for the Republican candidate. This is the first election in which any candidate won more than a million votes. Maricopa County also cast more than a million votes for the first time.

Primaries

• 2004 Arizona Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
6. New York Times: Leans Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,196,692.[3] Kerry raised $1,525,930.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush.[7]

The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. However, Kerry did win portions of state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Arizona[8][9][10]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	1,104,294	54.77%	10
	Democratic	John Kerry	893,524	44.32%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	11,856	0.59%	0
	Write In	Write-in candidate	3,517	0.17%	0
	Write In	Ralph Nader	2,773	0.14%	0
	Write In	David Cobb	138	0.01%	0
Totals			2,012,585	100.00%	10
Voter turnout (Voting Age)					49.6%

Results by county

Bush won all but four counties.[11]

County	George Walker Bush[12] Republican		John Forbes Kerry[12] Democratic		Michael J. Badarnik[12] Libertarian		Various candidates[12] Write-ins		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Apache	8,384	34.65%	15,658	64.71%	142	0.59%	14	0.06%	-7,274	-30.06%	24,198
Cochise	26,556	59.70%	17,514	39.37%	318	0.71%	95	0.21%	9,042	20.33%	44,483
Coconino	22,526	43.10%	29,243	55.95%	377	0.72%	121	0.23%	-6,717	-12.85%	52,267
Gila	12,343	59.22%	8,314	39.89%	155	0.74%	31	0.15%	4,029	19.33%	20,843
Graham	7,467	69.65%	3,185	29.71%	66	0.62%	2	0.02%	4,282	39.94%	10,720
Greenlee	1,899	61.92%	1,146	37.37%	19	0.62%	3	0.10%	753	24.55%	3,067
La Paz	3,158	62.47%	1,849	36.58%	45	0.89%	3	0.06%	1,309	25.90%	5,055
Maricopa	679,455	56.97%	504,849	42.33%	6,776	0.57%	1,671	0.14%	174,606	14.64%	1,192,751
Mohave	36,794	63.65%	20,503	35.47%	393	0.68%	117	0.20%	16,291	28.18%	57,807
Navajo	17,277	53.42%	14,815	45.81%	224	0.69%	27	0.08%	2,462	7.61%	32,343
Pima	171,109	46.64%	193,128	52.64%	2,109	0.57%	561	0.15%	-22,019	-6.00%	366,907
Pinal	37,006	57.27%	27,252	42.17%	333	0.52%	31	0.05%	9,754	15.09%	64,622
Santa Cruz	4,668	40.01%	6,909	59.21%	80	0.69%	11	0.09%	-2,241	-19.21%	11,668
Yavapai	53,468	61.18%	33,127	37.91%	612	0.70%	182	0.21%	20,341	23.28%	87,389
Yuma	22,184	57.67%	16,032	41.68%	207	0.54%	42	0.11%	6,152	15.99%	38,465
Totals	1,104,294	54.77%	893,524	44.32%	11,856	0.59%	2,911	0.14%	210,770	10.45%	2,016,102[lower-alpha 1]

Results by congressional district

Bush won six of eight congressional districts.[13]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	54%	46%	Rick Renzi
2nd	61%	38%	Trent Franks
3rd	58%	41%	John Shadegg
4th	38%	62%	Ed Pastor
5th	54%	45%	J.D. Hayworth
6th	64%	35%	Jeff Flake
7th	43%	57%	Raul Grijalva
8th	53%	46%	Jim Kolbe

Electors

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[14]

1. Linda Barber
2. Malcolm Barrett
3. Jim Click
4. Cynthia J. Collins
5. Webb Crockett
6. Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin
7. Ross Farnsworth
8. Ira A. Fulton
9. Bernice C. Roberts
10. Phillip Townsend

Notes

1. This total includes 3,517 write-in votes for miscellaneous candidates that were not separated by county.

References

3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
5. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
6. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
7. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. 1970-04-13. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
8. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. 1970-04-13. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
9. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-05-13. Retrieved 2009-07-17.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
10. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona".
11. "Election 2004". Cnn.com. 1970-04-13. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
12. Our campaigns; AZ US President Race, November 07, 2000
13. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 2015-05-31.
14. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2008-05-14. Retrieved 2009-06-27.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)