2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020. Following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat through the end of the term expiring in January 2023.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]

2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

November 3, 2020

Nominee Mark Kelly Martha McSally Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,716,467 1,637,661 Percentage 51.2% 48.8%

County results Kelly:      50-60%      60-70%      70-80% McSally:      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%

U.S. senator before election Martha McSally Republican Elected U.S. Senator Mark Kelly Democratic

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation, which would trigger a special election.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]

Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4%, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by 0.3%, but slightly underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962.[8] This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona. Additionally, this was the first senate special election not held in an off year that resulted in a flip to one one party since 2002, and the first time since 1992 that a special election held in a presidential election year, on election day, flipped parties.

Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.

Interim appointments

Appointees

• Jon Kyl, former U.S. Senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip, resigned December 31, 2018[4][9]
• Martha McSally, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, assumed office January 3, 2019[10]

Potential candidates not appointed

• Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[11]
• Barbara Barrett, Secretary of the Air Force and former United States Ambassador to Finland[11]
• Jan Brewer, former Governor of Arizona and former Secretary of State of Arizona[12]
• Paul Gosar, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[13]
• Eileen Klein, former Treasurer of Arizona and former chief of staff to former governor of Arizona Jan Brewer[11]
• Cindy McCain, widow of former U.S. senator John McCain[11]
• Meghan McCain, daughter of former U.S. senator John McCain[14]
• Michael McGuire, incumbent Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard[13]
• Karrin Taylor Robson, businesswoman and incumbent member of the Arizona Board of Regents[11]
• Matt Salmon, former U.S. Representative, 2002 gubernatorial nominee and former Chairperson of the Arizona Republican Party[11]
• David Schweikert, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district[15]
• John Shadegg, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district[11]
• Kelli Ward, former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[13]
• Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[13]

Republican primary

Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign, however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]

Nominee

• Martha McSally, incumbent U.S. Senator and former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district[17][18]

Eliminated in primary

• Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)[19]
• Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive[20]

Withdrawn

• Craig Brittain, former revenge porn site operator[21][22]
• PT Burton[23]
• Mark Cavener[22][19]
• Floyd Getchell[24][22]
• Ann Griffin, former teacher[25][19]
• Josue Larose, 2016 Republican presidential candidate and 2012 Republican candidate for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district[26]

Declined

• Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[27]
• Joe Arpaio, former Sheriff of Maricopa County and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for Maricopa County Sheriff)[28][29]
• Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona[30]
• Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district[31]
• Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip[9][32][33]
• Blake Masters, entrepreneur[34][35]
• Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball player and Blaze Media commentator[36]
• Fife Symington, former Governor of Arizona[37][38]

Endorsements

Martha McSally

U.S. Presidents

• George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[39]
• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[40]

State officials

• Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015-present)[41]

Individuals

• Buzz Aldrin, U.S. astronaut[42]

Organizations

• Maggie's List[43]
• Campaign for Working Families[44]
• Huck PAC[45]
• Republican Jewish Coalition[46]
• Susan B. Anthony List[47]

Primary results

Results by county:

  McSally—80–90%

  McSally—70–80%

  McSally—60–70%

Republican primary results[48]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Martha McSally (incumbent)	551,119	75.20%
	Republican	Daniel McCarthy	181,551	24.77%
	Republican	Sean Lyons (write-in)	210	0.03%
Total votes			732,880	100.0%

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Mark Kelly, retired American astronaut, engineer, retired U.S. Navy Captain and husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords[49]

Eliminated in primary

• Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]

Withdrew

• Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate (write-in)[50] (switched to Democratic general election write-in candidacy)[51]
• Sheila Bilyeu, Democratic candidate for the 2020 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[52]
• Juan Angel Vasquez[53]

Declined

• Ruben Gallego, incumbent U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election) (endorsed Mark Kelly)[54]
• Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State of Arizona[55]
• Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain[56]

Endorsements

Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. Senators

• Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California; 2020 vice presidential nominee[57]
• Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[58]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona[59]

U.S. Representatives

• Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative (AZ-07)[54]

Individuals

• Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[60]

Organizations

• 314 Action[61]
• Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[62]
• Council for a Livable World[63]
• Brady Campaign[64]
• Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[65]
• End Citizens United[66]
• Everytown for Gun Safety[67]
• Feminist Majority PAC[68]
• High School Democrats of America[69]
• Human Rights Campaign[70]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[71]
• League of Conservation Voters[72]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America[73]
• National Organization for Women[74]
• Students for Gun Legislation
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund[75]
• Sierra Club[76]
• Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[77]
• VoteVets[78]

Primary results

Democratic primary results[48]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mark Kelly	665,620	99.93%
	Democratic	Bo Garcia (write-in)	451	0.07%
Total votes			666,071	100.0%

Libertarian primary

Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.

Eliminated in primary

• Barry Hess, write-in Libertarian candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona and Libertarian nominee in the 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election[79][80]
• Alan White[19]

Primary results

Libertarian primary results[48]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess (write-in)	329	76.51%
	Libertarian	Alan White (write-in)	101	23.49%
Total votes			430	100.0%

Other candidates

Declared

Republican

• Edward Davida[81]
• John Schiess[81]
• Debbie Simmons[81]
• Patrick "Pat" Thomas[81]

Democratic

• Perry Kapadia[81]
• Mohammed "Mike Obama" Arif[50][81]
• Adam Chilton[81]
• Buzz Stewart[81]

Other

• Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)[81]
• William "Will" Decker (Independent)[81]
• Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)[81]
• Nicholas N. Glenn, navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)[81]
• Mathew Haupt (Independent)[81]
• Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)[81]
• Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)[81]
• Frank Saenz (Independent)[81]
• Jim Stevens (Independent)[81]

Withdrawn

• Robert Kay (Independent)[79][82][83][81]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 6, 2020

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[84]	Lean D (flip)	September 23, 2020
Inside Elections[85]	Tilt D (flip)	September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86]	Lean D (flip)	September 21, 2020
Daily Kos[87]	Lean D (flip)	August 31, 2020
Politico[88]	Lean D (flip)	September 9, 2020
RCP[89]	Lean D (flip)	October 8, 2020
Niskanen[90]	Likely D (flip)	September 15, 2020
DDHQ[91]	Likely D (flip)	September 25, 2020
538[92]	Likely D (flip)	September 29, 2020
Economist[93]	Likely D (flip)	September 23, 2020

Endorsements

Martha McSally (R)

Federal officials

• George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States[39]
• Donald Trump, 45th and incumbent president of the United States[40]
• Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN (2017–2018) and former Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[94]

State officials

• Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015-present)[41]

Others

• Buzz Aldrin, former astronaut and lunar module pilot for Apollo 11[95]

Organizations

• Maggie's List[43]
• Campaign for Working Families[44]
• Huck PAC[45]
• Republican Jewish Coalition[46]
• Susan B. Anthony List[47]

Mark Kelly (D)

Federal officials

• Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[96]
• Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California; 2020 vice presidential nominee[57]
• Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota[58]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona[97]
• Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative (AZ-07)[54]
• Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district[98]

Organizations

• 314 Action [61]
• Center for Biological Diversity[99]
• Climate Hawks Vote[100]
• Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[62]
• Council for a Livable World[63]
• Brady Campaign[64]
• Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[65]
• End Citizens United[66]
• Equality Arizona[101]
• Everytown for Gun Safety[67]
• Feminist Majority PAC[68]
• High School Democrats of America[69]
• Human Rights Campaign[70]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[102]
• J Street[103]
• League of Conservation Voters[72]
• MoveOn[104]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America[73]
• National Education Association[105]
• National Organization for Women[106]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[107]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund[75]
• Sierra Club[76]
• Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[77]
• VoteVets[78]

Unions

• United Auto Workers[108]

Newspapers

• Arizona Daily Star[109]

Others

• Kerry Washington, actress

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Mark Kelly	Martha McSally	Margin
270 to Win	November 2, 2020	December 24, 2020	49.8%	44.8%	Kelly +5.0
Real Clear Politics	November 1, 2020	December 24, 2020	50.5%	44.8%	Kelly +5.7
Average			50.2%	44.8%	Kelly +4.8

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Martha McSally (R) Mark Kelly (D) Other / Undecided Ipsos/Reuters October 27 – November 2, 2020 610 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 53% 4%[lower-alpha 2] Change Research/CNBC October 29 – November 1, 2020 409 (LV) ± 4.85% 47% 51% 2%[lower-alpha 3] NBC News/Marist October 29 – November 1, 2020 717 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 52% 2%[lower-alpha 4] Swayable October 27 – November 1, 2020 333 (LV) ± 7.2% 45% 55% – Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,195 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 54% 0%[lower-alpha 5] Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 732 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 6] Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 1,059 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% – Data Orbital October 28–30, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 7] Siena College/NYT Upshot October 26–30, 2020 1,253 (LV) ± 3% 43% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 8] Grand Canyon Battleground Poll October 25–30, 2020 910 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 46% 11%[lower-alpha 9] CNN/SSRS October 23–30, 2020 892 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 10] Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 48% 9%[lower-alpha 11] Gravis Marketing October 26–28, 2020 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 12] Ipsos/Reutuers October 21–27, 2020 714 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 13] Swayable October 23–26, 2020 286 (LV) ± 7.4% 44% 56% – Justice Collaborative Project (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 22–25, 2020 874 (LV) ± 3.1% 40% 50% 10%[lower-alpha 14] OH Predictive Insights October 22–25, 2020 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 50% 4%[lower-alpha 15] Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research October 17–25, 2020 725 (RV) ± 3.64% 39% 51% 10%[lower-alpha 16] Patinkin Research Strategies (D) October 21–24, 2020 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 53% 2%[lower-alpha 17] Y2 Analytics October 15–24, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 51% – Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 19–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 18] Ipsos/Reuters October 14–21, 2020 658 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 19] Morning Consult October 11–20, 2020 1,066 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% – Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 18–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 46% 10%[lower-alpha 20] Change Research/CNBC October 16–19, 2020 232 (LV)[lower-alpha 21] – 43% 54% – RMG Research October 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39%[lower-alpha 22] 49% 15%[lower-alpha 23] 37%[lower-alpha 24] 49% 15%[lower-alpha 25] 40%[lower-alpha 26] 44% 15%[lower-alpha 27] Data Orbital October 16–18, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 42% 48% 10%[lower-alpha 28] YouGov/CBS October 13–16, 2020 1,074 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 52% 7%[lower-alpha 29] Ipsos/Reuters October 7–14, 2020 667 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 52% 8%[lower-alpha 30] Monmouth University October 9–13, 2020 502 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 52% 5%[lower-alpha 31] 502 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] 42% 52% – 502 (LV)[lower-alpha 33] 45% 51% – Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 1,144 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 49% – Trafalgar Group October 6–9, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 2.95% 45% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 34] OH Predictive Insights October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 3.97% 45% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 35] Ipsos/Reuters September 29 – October 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 36] Latino Decisions (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 28 – October 6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 37] Basswood Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] October 3–5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 38] Data Orbital October 3–5, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 44% 49% 7%[lower-alpha 39] HighGround Inc. September 28 – October 5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 40] Change Research/CNBC October 2–4, 2020 296 (LV) – 43% 51% 6%[lower-alpha 41] Siena College/NYT Upshot October 1–3, 2020 655 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 50% 11%[lower-alpha 42] Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) October 1–3, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 43] Targoz Market Research September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.03% 41% 51% 8% Morning Consult September 22 – October 1, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 3% 38%[lower-alpha 44] 51% 10%[lower-alpha 45] Suffolk University September 26–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 49% 11%[lower-alpha 46] Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 25–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 48% – Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 47] Morning Consult September 19–28, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 36% 53% 10%[lower-alpha 48] Data For Progress[upper-alpha 5] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 47% 15%[lower-alpha 49] Change Research/CNBC September 18–20, 2020 262 (LV) – 43% 51% 6%[lower-alpha 50] ABC News/Washington Post September 15–20, 2020 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 51] Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3%[lower-alpha 52] 40% 49% – Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 6] September 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 55% – Ipsos/Reuters September 11–17, 2020 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 41% 50% 8%[lower-alpha 53] Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 900 (LV)[lower-alpha 54] ± (2% – 4%) 41%[lower-alpha 55] 48% – Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] September 14–16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 46% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 56] Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–16, 2020 855 (LV) ± 3.35% 35% 53% 13%[lower-alpha 57] Monmouth University September 11–15, 2020 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 58] 420 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] 46% 50% 4%[lower-alpha 59] 420 (LV)[lower-alpha 33] 48% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 60] Siena College/NYT Upshot September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 50% 8%[lower-alpha 61] Morning Consult September 5–14, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 38% 50% 13%[lower-alpha 62] Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) September 10–13, 2020 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 63] Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report August 29 – September 13, 2020 1,298 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 44% 20%[lower-alpha 64] Gravis Marketing September 10–11, 2020 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%[lower-alpha 65] YouGov/CBS September 9–11, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 66] OH Predictive Insights September 8–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% 6%[lower-alpha 67] Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[upper-alpha 8] August 28 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 48% 7%[lower-alpha 68] Change Research/CNBC September 4–6, 2020 470 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 51% 4%[lower-alpha 69] Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 30 – September 4, 2020 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 53% 8%[lower-alpha 70] Morning Consult August 26 – September 4, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 39% 50% 11%[lower-alpha 71] FOX News August 29 – September 1, 2020 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 56% 5%[lower-alpha 72] 853 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 55% 6%[lower-alpha 73] Basswood Research (R)[upper-alpha 4] August 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 74] Morning Consult August 16–25, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 35% 53% 13%[lower-alpha 75] Redfield and Wilton Strategies August 16–18, 2020 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 34% 53% 12%[lower-alpha 76] Morning Consult August 6–15, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 43% 46% 11%[lower-alpha 77] Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 52% 7%[lower-alpha 78] Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020 428 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 49% 8%[lower-alpha 79] Morning Consult July 27 – August 5, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 38% 49% 13%[lower-alpha 80] OH Predictive Insights August 3–4, 2020 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 48% 9%[lower-alpha 81] OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 9] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 82] Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,215 (LV) ± 3.2% 40% 50% 10%[lower-alpha 83] Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020 365 (LV) ± 4.8% 45% 47% 8% Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 36%[lower-alpha 84] 52% 13% CNN/SSRS July 18–24, 2020 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 85] Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020 858 (LV) ± 3.2% 35% 53% 13%[lower-alpha 86] Morning Consult July 14–23, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 39% 49% 12%[lower-alpha 87] Public Policy Polling July 21–22, 2020 816 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 88] NBC News/Marist July 14–22, 2020 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 53% 6%[lower-alpha 89] Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 10] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 48% 11%[lower-alpha 90] Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020 345 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 52% 3%[lower-alpha 91] CBS News/YouGov July 7–10, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 46% 12%[lower-alpha 92] OH Predictive Insights July 6–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% 6%[lower-alpha 93] Data Orbital June 27–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 50% 7%[lower-alpha 94] Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 11] June 27, 2020 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% 12%[lower-alpha 95] Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020 311 (LV)[lower-alpha 96] ± 5.8% 44% 53% 3%[lower-alpha 97] Global Strategy Group (D) June 19–24, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% 9% Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 12] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 50% 8% Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 34% 49% 17%[lower-alpha 98] NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–16, 2020 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 47% 16%[lower-alpha 99] Civiqs/Daily Kos June 13–15, 2020 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 100] FOX News May 30 – June 2, 2020 1,002 (RV) ± 3.9% 37% 50% 13%[lower-alpha 101] HighGround Public Affairs May 18–22, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 102] OH Predictive Insights May 9–11, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 51% 10%[lower-alpha 103] OH Predictive Insights April 7–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 51% 8%[lower-alpha 104] NBC News/Marist March 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 45% 48% 7% Monmouth University March 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 50% 6% Univision/Arizona State University March 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 48% 16% OH Predictive Insights March 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 105] Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 666 (V) ± 3.8% 42% 47% 12% HighGround Public Affairs February 7–9, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 46% 15% Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] January 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 8% Public Policy Polling January 2–4, 2020 760 (V) ± 3.6% 42% 46% 12% OH Predictive Insights December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% 9%[lower-alpha 106] Emerson College October 25–28, 2019 904 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 46% 9% Change Research (D) September 27–28, 2019 856 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 47% 8% Bendixen & Amandi International September 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 16% OH Predictive Insights August 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 13%[lower-alpha 107] Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 108] OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 109] OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 44% 10%[lower-alpha 110]

Hypothetical polling

with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Daniel McCarthy (R) Mark Kelly (D) Other / Undecided Change Research[upper-alpha 12] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6% with Ruben Gallego Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Martha McSally (R) Ruben Gallego (D) Other / Undecided OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%[lower-alpha 111] on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Yes No Other / Undecided Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 16%[lower-alpha 112] Public Policy Polling January 24–25, 2019 682 (V) – 40% 54% 6% with generic Republican and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Generic Republican Generic Democrat Other / Undecided OH Predictive Insights October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 3.97% 45% 45% 10%[lower-alpha 113] Targoz Market Research/PollSmart September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.03% 44% 42% 14%[lower-alpha 114] Data For Progress[upper-alpha 13] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 15%[lower-alpha 115] Siena College/NYT Upshot September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 44% 50% 6%[lower-alpha 116] Emerson College August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%[lower-alpha 117] OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 9] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 118] Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%[lower-alpha 119] Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 7] Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 120] OH Predictive Insights December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 121] Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 122] OH Predictive Insights February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 39% 17%[lower-alpha 123]

Results

2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona[110]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Mark Kelly	1,716,467	51.17%	+10.42%
	Republican	Martha McSally (incumbent)	1,637,661	48.82%	-4.89%
	Write-in		1,189	0.03%	-0.03%
Total votes			3,355,317	100.00%
	Democratic gain from Republican

See also

• 2020 Arizona elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
3. "Refused" with 1%; Did not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
4. "Other" and Undecided with 1%
5. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
6. "Someone else" with 2%
7. "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
8. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
9. "Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
10. "None of these" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
11. "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
12. Undecided with 6%
13. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
14. Undecided with 10%
15. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
16. "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
17. Undecided with 2%
18. "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
19. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
20. "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
21. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
22. Standard VI response
23. "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
24. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
25. "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
26. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
27. "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
28. "Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
29. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
30. "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 4%
31. "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
32. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
33. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
34. "Other" with 3%: Undecided with 4%
35. "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
36. "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
37. Undecided with 7%
38. Undecided with 4%
39. "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
40. "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
41. Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
42. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
43. Undecided with 5%
44. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
45. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
46. "Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
47. Undecided with 7%
48. "Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
49. Undecided with 15%
50. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
51. "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
52. Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
53. "Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
54. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
55. Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
56. Undecided with 6%
57. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
58. "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
59. "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
60. "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
61. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
62. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
63. Undecided with 5%
64. "Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
65. Undecided with 9%
66. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
67. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
68. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
69. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
70. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
71. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
72. "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
73. "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
74. Undecided with 4%
75. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
76. "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
77. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
78. Undecided with 7%
79. Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
80. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
81. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
82. Undecided with 4%
83. "No one" with 10%
84. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
85. "None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
86. "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
87. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
88. Undecided with 7%
89. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
90. "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
91. Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
92. Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
93. Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
94. Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
95. Undecided with 12%
96. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
97. Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
98. Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
99. Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
100. "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
101. Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
102. "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
103. Undecided with 10%
104. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
105. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
106. "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
107. "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
108. Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
109. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
110. Undecided with 10%
111. Undecided with 10%
112. Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
113. "Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
114. "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
115. Undecided with 15%
116. "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
117. Undecided with 13%
118. Undecided with 14%
119. "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
120. "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
121. "Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
122. "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
123. "Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%

Partisan clients

1. The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
2. The American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
3. This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
4. Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
5. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
6. Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
7. Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
8. Poll sponsored by AARP.
9. Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
10. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
11. Polling was sponsored by OANN.
12. This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
13. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.

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Further reading

• Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com

External links

• National Institute on Money in Politics; Campaign Finance Institute, "Arizona 2019 & 2020 Elections", Followthemoney.org

Official campaign websites

• Mark Kelly (D) for Senate
• Martha McSally (R) for Senate