2004 United States presidential election in Montana

The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Montana

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 3 0 Popular vote 266,063 173,710 Percentage 59.07% 38.56%

County Results Bush   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90%   90-100% Kerry   50-60%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state typically votes for Democrats at the state level, having a Democratic senator: Max Baucus, as well as a very popular governor Brian Schweitzer. Montana has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1964 except in 1992, when the state slightly preferred Democrat Bill Clinton to Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush.

Primaries

• 2004 Montana Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
6. New York Times: Solid Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
11. Zogby International: Bush
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $385,635.[3] Kerry raised $145,679.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won 5 counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Montana[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	266,063	59.07%	3
	Democratic	John Kerry	173,710	38.56%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	6,168	1.37%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	1,764	0.39%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	1,733	0.38%	0
	Green	David Cobb	996	0.22%	0
	Write Ins.	-	11	0.00%	0
Totals			-	100.00%	6
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Bush #	Bush %	Kerry #	Kerry %	Other #	Other %	Total #
Beaverhead	2,102	76.35%	599	21.76%	52	1.89%	2,753
Big Horn	2,026	47.04%	2,213	51.38%	68	1.58%	4,307
Blaine	1,484	52.48%	1,300	45.97%	44	1.56%	2,828
Broadwater	1,778	75.56%	533	22.65%	42	1.78%	2,353
Carbon	3,341	62.80%	1,847	34.72%	132	2.48%	5,320
Carter	623	87.87%	76	10.72%	10	1.41%	709
Cascade	15,399	58.28%	10,425	39.46%	598	2.26%	26,422
Chouteau	1,921	65.70%	941	32.18%	62	2.12%	2,924
Custer	3,294	65.31%	1,629	32.30%	121	2.40%	5,044
Daniels	764	68.28%	326	29.13%	29	2.59%	1,119
Dawson	2,884	64.32%	1,494	33.32%	106	2.36%	4,484
Deer Lodge	1,161	38.69%	1,775	59.15%	65	2.17%	3,001
Fallon	1,178	79.01%	289	19.38%	24	1.61%	1,491
Fergus	2,006	73.59%	668	24.50%	52	1.91%	2,726
Flathead	26,019	67.27%	11,587	29.96%	1,072	2.77%	38,678
Gallatin	13,348	54.19%	10,661	43.28%	622	2.53%	24,631
Garfield	590	90.08%	52	7.94%	13	1.98%	655
Glacier	1,828	40.07%	2,641	57.89%	93	2.04%	4,562
Golden Valley	396	75.86%	119	22.80%	7	1.34%	522
Granite	1,144	71.28%	404	25.17%	57	3.55%	1,605
Hill County	2,992	55.19%	2,300	42.43%	129	2.38%	5,421
Jefferson	3,843	65.51%	1,880	32.05%	143	2.44%	5,866
Judith Basin	943	73.39%	322	25.06%	20	1.56%	1,285
Lake	3,952	60.41%	2,425	37.07%	165	2.52%	6,542
Lewis & Clark	16,432	55.30%	12,655	42.59%	629	2.12%	29,716
Liberty	734	71.06%	281	27.20%	18	1.74%	1,033
Lincoln	3,914	68.40%	1,656	28.94%	152	2.66%	5,722
Madison	2,868	72.94%	983	25.00%	81	2.06%	3,932
McCone	365	63.81%	187	32.69%	20	3.50%	572
Meagher	698	71.74%	247	25.39%	28	2.88%	973
Mineral	1,242	67.61%	542	29.50%	53	2.89%	1,837
Missoula	22,711	45.66%	25,598	51.47%	1,429	2.87%	49,738
Musselshell	1,661	73.99%	538	23.96%	46	2.05%	2,245
Park	4,771	58.06%	3,199	38.93%	247	3.01%	8,217
Petroleum	228	78.08%	55	18.84%	9	3.08%	292
Phillips	1,042	77.82%	274	20.46%	23	1.72%	1,339
Pondera	1,852	64.78%	956	33.44%	51	1.78%	2,859
Powder River	856	83.27%	154	14.98%	18	1.75%	1,028
Powell	1,968	70.51%	751	26.91%	72	2.58%	2,791
Prairie	546	74.18%	181	24.59%	9	1.22%	736
Ravalli	13,224	66.81%	6,128	30.96%	440	2.22%	19,792
Richland	3,110	72.19%	1,120	26.00%	78	1.81%	4,308
Roosevelt	1,760	43.74%	2,193	54.50%	71	1.76%	4,024
Rosebud	1,982	55.29%	1,520	42.40%	83	2.32%	3,585
Sanders	3,461	67.18%	1,501	29.13%	190	3.69%	5,152
Sheridan	1,159	56.90%	845	41.48%	33	1.62%	2,037
Silver Bow	3,561	40.15%	5,096	57.45%	213	2.40%	8,870
Stillwater	2,856	73.08%	966	24.72%	86	2.20%	3,908
Sweet Grass	977	75.44%	292	22.55%	26	2.01%	1,295
Teton	2,232	66.45%	1,047	31.17%	80	2.38%	3,359
Toole	1,582	68.48%	690	29.87%	38	1.65%	2,310
Treasure	348	72.20%	121	25.10%	13	2.70%	482
Valley	2,476	61.67%	1,429	35.59%	110	2.74%	4,015
Wheatland	705	71.57%	250	25.38%	30	3.05%	985
Wibaux	407	72.68%	144	25.71%	9	1.61%	560
Yellowstone	40,863	61.70%	24,101	36.39%	1,260	1.90%	66,224

[8]

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
At-large	59.1%	38.6%	Denny Rehberg

Electors

Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[9]

1. Jack Galt
2. Thelma Baker
3. John Brenden

References

1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
2. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=30
3. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
5. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
6. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
7. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Montana".
8. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2004/mt/prescounties/
9. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2006-04-25. Retrieved 2009-10-10.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

External links