2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the nine U.S. Representatives from the State of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The 2018 general elections saw the Democratic party gain the 2nd Congressional district, thus flipping the state from a 5–4 Republican advantage to a 5–4 Democratic advantage, the first time since the 2012 election in which Democrats held more House seats in Arizona than the Republicans.

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
All 9 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
Turnout63.00%
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 4 5
Seats won 5 4
Seat change 1 1
Popular vote 1,179,193 1,139,251
Percentage 50.37% 48.67%
Swing 5.65% 3.82%
Popular vote by congressional district. As this is a first-past-the-post election, seat totals are not determined by total popular vote in the state, but instead by results in each congressional district.
Elections in Arizona
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
Ballot propositions
Legislature elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Chandler
Mayoral elections
Gilbert
Mayoral elections
Glendale
Mayoral elections
Mesa
Mayoral elections
Phoenix
Mayoral elections
Scottsdale
Mayoral elections
Tucson
Mayoral elections

Overview
Popular vote
Democratic
 
 50.37%
Republican
 
 48.67%
Other
 
 0.96%
House seats
Democratic
 
 55.55%
Republican
 
 44.44%

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[1]

District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1143,24053.83%122,78446.14%650.03%266,089100.0%Democratic hold
District 2161,00054.73%133,08345.24%690.02%294,152100.0%Democratic gain
District 3114,65063.87%64,86836.13%00.00%179,518100.0%Democratic hold
District 484,52130.51%188,84268.16%3,6721.33%277,035100.0%Republican hold
District 5127,02740.58%186,03759.42%00.00%313,064100.0%Republican hold
District 6140,55944.81%173,14055.19%00.00%313,699100.0%Republican hold
District 7113,04485.61%00.00%19,00714.39%132,051100.0%Democratic hold
District 8135,56944.53%168,83555.46%130.01%304,417100.0%Republican hold
District 9159,58361.09%101,66238.91%00.00%261,245100.0%Democratic hold
Total1,179,19350.37%1,139,25148.66%22,8260.97%2,341,270100.0%

District 1
See also: Arizona's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is home to the Grand Canyon and stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Marana. This district has a significant Native-American population, making up 25% of the population in the district. This district is home to a number of Indian reservations, including the Gila River Indian Community, Hopi Reservation, and the Navajo Nation. Incumbent Democratic Congressman Tom O'Halleran won election to his first term in 2016 with 50.90 percent of the vote over Republican nominee Paul Babeu.[2] This district is one of the most competitive in the state with a PVI of R+2. In 2018, the district was one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.[3]

Democratic primary
Candidates
Withdrew
  • Miguel Olivas[5]

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom O'Halleran (incumbent) 64,114 100.0
Total votes 64,114 100.0

Candidates
Declined

Polling
Poll
source		 Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Wendy
Rogers		 Tiffany
Shedd		 Steve
Smith		 Other Undecided
Grassroots Partners (R-Smith) July 15–16, 2018 393 ± 4.6% 23% 15% 27% – –
Data Orbital (R-Defending Rural Arizona PAC) June 28–30, 2018 450 ± 4.59% 22% 15% 10% 3% 50%

Endorsements
Steve Smith
Individuals
Groups

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Wendy Rogers 30,180 43.7
Republican Steve Smith 25,552 37.0
Republican Tiffany Shedd 13,260 19.2
Total votes 68,992 100.0

Candidates

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Tom
O'Halleran (D)		 Wendy
Rogers (R)		 Other Undecided
Optimus/DDHQ October 31 – November 1, 2018 756 ± 3.56% 48% 45% 1%[lower-alpha 1] 6%
American Viewpoint (R) October 16–18, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 46% – 5%
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers) October 9–10, 2018 943 ± 3.0% 38% 44% – 18%
Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers) September 27–28, 2018 738 ± 4.0% 36% 39% – 24%

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Likely D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[27] Lean D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Likely D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[29] Likely D September 28, 2018
Fox News[30] Lean D September 21, 2018
CNN[31] Lean D October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[32] Lean D September 21, 2018
The New York Times[33] Likely D September 26, 2018
Politico[34] Lean D September 21, 2018

Results
Arizona's 1st congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom O'Halleran (incumbent) 143,240 53.8
Republican Wendy Rogers 122,784 46.1
Independent David Shock (write-in) 65 0.1
Total votes 266,089 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2
See also: Arizona's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district is based in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and parts of suburban Tucson. Republican Martha McSally was reelected to a second term in 2016, defeating Democratic opponent Matt Heinz by a margin of 57 to 43 percent in the general election.[36] In 2018, this district was one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.[37]

Democratic primary
Candidates
Withdrew
Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Randy
Friese		 Matt
Heinz		 Ann
Kirkpatrick		 Billy
Kovacs		 Mary
Matiella		 Bruce
Wheeler		 Other Undecided
FM3 Research (D-Heinz) August 1–2, 2018 402 ± 4.9% – 31% 26% – – – 13% 29%
FM3 Research (D-Heinz) April 29 – May 3, 2018 400 ± 4.9% – 27% 23% 4% 6% 4% – 36%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) May 5–7, 2017 392 ± 5.0% 6% 40% 30% – – – – 24%

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 33,938 41.8
Democratic Matt Heinz 23,992 29.6
Democratic Mary Matiella 7,606 9.4
Democratic Bruce Wheeler 6,814 8.4
Democratic Billy Kovacs 5,350 6.6
Democratic Barbara Sherry 2,074 2.6
Democratic Yahya Yuksel 1,319 1.6
Total votes 81,093 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lea Márquez Peterson 23,571 34.2
Republican Brandon Martin 19,809 28.7
Republican Casey Welch 14,499 21.0
Republican Daniel Morales, Jr. 11,135 16.1
Total votes 69,014 100.0

Debates

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Lea
Marquez-Peterson (R)		 Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		 Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 26 – October 1, 2018 502 ± 4.5% 39% 50% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) February 8–10, 2018 841 ± 3.4% 34% 43% –

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Lean D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[27] Lean D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Likely D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[29] Lean D September 28, 2018
Fox News[30] Lean D September 21, 2018
CNN[31] Lean D October 2, 2018
RealClearPolitics[32] Lean D September 21, 2018
The New York Times[33] Lean D September 26, 2018
Politico[34] Lean D September 21, 2018

Results
Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 161,000 54.7
Republican Lea Márquez Peterson 133,083 45.2
Independent Jordan Flayer (write-in) 50 0.1
Republican Melissa Grable (write-in) 19 0.0
Total votes 294,152 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 3
See also: Arizona's 3rd congressional district

The third district is based in Tucson and stretches along the southern border of Arizona including Yuma, rural portions of Maricopa County such as Gila Bend, and the western suburbs of Phoenix including Avondale, Buckeye, Goodyear, and parts of Litchfield Park. Raúl Grijalva has represented this district since 2002, and ran unopposed in 2016.

Democratic primary
Candidates

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 45,186 99.8
Write-in 81 0.2
Total votes 45,267 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates
Withdrew
  • Bill Abatecola, businessmen (endorsed Arellano).[56]

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican J. Nicholas Pierson 13,090 49.9
Republican Sergio Arellano 7,400 28.2
Republican Edna San Miguel 5,756 21.9
Total votes 26,246 100.0

Results
Arizona's 3rd congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 114,650 63.9
Republican Nicolas Pierson 64,868 36.1
Total votes 179,518 100.0
Democratic hold

District 4
See also: Arizona's 4th congressional district

The fourth district takes up most of rural northwestern and western Arizona and includes Kingman, Lake Havasu City, Prescott, and San Tan Valley. This is the most Republican district in Arizona with a PVI of R+21. Republican Paul Gosar was reelected to a fourth term in 2016 with 71% of the vote.

This congressional race received national media coverage during the general election after Democratic nominee David Brill aired television advertisements in which six of Republican incumbent Paul Gosar's nine siblings each condemned their brother and endorsed Brill, imploring residents of the fourth district to vote their brother out of office.[57] Gosar responded to this advert with a tweet in which he dismissed his siblings' criticisms and characterized the six siblings as, "disgruntled Hillary supporters" who "put political ideology before family".[58]

Democratic primary
Candidates

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Brill 19,048 52.4
Democratic Delina Disanto 17,256 47.5
Write-in 49 0.1
Total votes 36,353 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar (incumbent) 94,092 100.0
Total votes 94,092 100.0

Green primary
Candidates
  • Haryaksha Gregor Knauer[4]

Primary results
Green primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Haryaksha Gregor Knauer 323 100.0
Total votes 323 100.0

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Paul
Gosar (R)		 David
Brill (D)		 Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 25, 2018 370 ± 5.09% 57% 25% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 16%

Results
Arizona's 4th congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Paul Gosar (incumbent) 188,842 68.2
Democratic David Brill 84,521 30.5
Green Haryaksha Gregor Knauer 3,672 1.3
Total votes 277,035 100.0
Republican hold

District 5
See also: Arizona's 5th congressional district

The 5th district is based in the East Valley region of suburban Phoenix and includes Gilbert and Queen Creek, as well as portions of Chandler and Mesa. Republican Andy Biggs was elected to his first term in 2016 with 64% of the vote.

Democratic primary
Candidates

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joan Greene 27,222 59.3
Democratic Jose Torres 18,671 40.7
Total votes 45,893 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Biggs (incumbent) 86,418 100.0
Total votes 86,418 100.0

Results
Arizona's 5th congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andy Biggs (incumbent) 186,037 59.4
Democratic Joan Greene 127,027 40.6
Total votes 313,064 100.0
Republican hold

District 6
See also: Arizona's 6th congressional district

The sixth district is based in northeastern suburban Phoenix and is centered around Scottsdale, and also includes many affluent communities such as Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. Republican David Schweikert was re-elected to a third term in 2016 with 62.23% of the vote. In 2018, this district was one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.[37]

Democratic primary
Candidates
  • Anita Malik,[4] tech executive
  • Garrick McFadden,[4] attorney
  • Heather Ross,[4] nurse practitioner

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Anita Malik 22,666 42.2
Democratic Heather Ross 20,203 37.6
Democratic Garrick McFadden 10,825 20.2
Total votes 53,694 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert (incumbent) 83,406 100.0
Total votes 83,406 100.0

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 David
Schweikert (R)		 Anita
Malik (D)		 Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 50% 36% 14%

Results
Arizona's 6th congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Schweikert (incumbent) 173,140 55.2
Democratic Anita Malik 140,559 44.8
Total votes 313,699 100.0
Republican hold

District 7
See also: Arizona's 7th congressional district

The seventh district is based in the city of Phoenix and also includes parts of Glendale and Tolleson. This is the most Democratic district in Arizona with a PVI of D+23. Democrat Ruben Gallego was elected to a second term in 2016 with 75.12% of the vote.[2] No Republican candidate filed to run in 2018.

Democratic primary
Candidates

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ruben Gallego (incumbent) 32,231 74.8
Democratic Catherine Miranda 10,856 25.2
Total votes 43,087 100.0

Results
Arizona's 7th congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ruben Gallego (incumbent) 113,044 85.6
Green Gary Swing 18,706 14.2
Republican James "007" Bond IV (write-in) 301 0.2
Total votes 132,051 100.0
Democratic hold

District 8
See also: Arizona's 8th congressional district and Arizona's 8th congressional district special election, 2018

The eighth district is based in the West Valley region of suburban Phoenix and includes the cities of El Mirage, Peoria, and Surprise, and also many retirement communities such as Sun City. Republican Congressman Trent Franks represented the district from 2003 to 2017, winning reelection in 2016 with 68.66% of the vote.[2] Franks resigned from Congress on December 8, 2017, after a controversy regarding surrogate mothers.[62] Republican Debbie Lesko won the special election that took place on April 24, 2018, defeating Democratic nominee Hiral Tipirneni with 52.6% of the vote. In the November 2018 general election, Lesko won a full term, again defeating Tipirneni.[63]

Democratic primary
Candidates
Removed from the ballot
Declined
  • Brianna Westbrook, political activist, Arizona LGBTQ community leader[67] (Running for Arizona state senate)
  • Robert Kyle Schuster[4][68]

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 52,215 100.0
Total votes 52,215 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates
Declined

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Lesko (incumbent) 73,776 77.2
Republican Sandra E. Dowling 21,825 22.8
Total votes 95,601 100.0

Independent candidates
Not on the ballot

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Debbie
Lesko (R)		 Hiral
Tipirneni (D)		 Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni) September 24–26, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 48% 44% 8%
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni) August 7–13, 2018 400 – 49% 40% 10%

Results
Arizona's 8th congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Lesko (incumbent) 168,835 55.5
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 135,569 44.5
New Paradigm Party Steven Hummel (write-in) 13 0.0
Total votes 304,417 100.0
Republican hold

District 9
See also: Arizona's 9th congressional district

The ninth district is based in suburban Phoenix and is centered around Tempe, and also includes portions of Chandler, Mesa, and Scottsdale. This district is moderately competitive with a PVI of D+4. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema was re-elected to a third term in 2016 with 60.89% of the vote.[2] In 2018, Sinema did not seek reelection to the U.S. House, instead running for U.S. Senate in order to replace Jeff Flake. In 2018, this district was one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.[3]

Democratic primary
Candidates
Not on the ballot
  • Talia Fuentes,[4] 2016 Democratic nominee for the 5th district[75]
Declined

Primary results
Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Stanton 59,066 100.0
Total votes 59,066 100.0

Republican primary
Candidates
  • Irina Baroness von Behr,[4] pilot, 2016 Tempe City Council candidate[77]
  • Steve Ferrara,[4] retired Navy Chief Medical Officer.[78]
  • David Giles,[4] 2016 Republican nominee[79]
Declined

Endorsements
Steve Ferrara
Groups
  • National Republican Congressional Committee[81]

Primary results
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Ferrara 31,006 59.9
Republican David Giles 16,722 32.3
Republican Irina Baroness von Behr 4,020 7.8
Total votes 51,748 100.0

Libertarian primary
Candidates
On The Ballot

Results
Arizona's 9th congressional district, 2018[35]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Greg Stanton 159,583 61.1
Republican Steve Ferrara 101,662 38.9
Total votes 261,245 100.0
Democratic hold

Notes
  1. "Will not vote" with 1%
  2. Haryaksha Gregor Knauer (G) with 2%

References
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Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
Official campaign websites for third district candidates
Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates
Official campaign websites for fifth district candidates
Official campaign websites for sixth district candidates
Official campaign websites for seventh district candidates
Official campaign websites of eighth district candidates
Official campaign websites of ninth district candidates
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