2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses

The 2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 23 in the U.S. state of Nevada, marking the Republican Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses

February 23, 2016
30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
Candidate Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Home state New York Florida Texas Delegate count 14 7 6 Popular vote 34,531 17,940 16,079 Percentage 45.91% 23.85% 21.38%   Candidate Ben Carson John Kasich Home state Maryland Ohio Delegate count 2 1 Popular vote 3,619 2,709 Percentage 4.81% 3.60%
Election results by county.   Donald Trump   Ted Cruz

With the Democratic Party having already held its Nevada caucuses three days earlier on February 20, the Republican caucus in Nevada was the only presidential primary on that day.

During the 2015 legislative session, lawmakers attempted to change the caucus into a regular primary and at a much earlier date,[1] however the bill failed to get to a vote.[2]

Nine candidates were eligible:[3][4]

• Jeb Bush (dropped out)
• Ben Carson
• Chris Christie (dropped out)
• Ted Cruz
• Carly Fiorina (dropped out)
• Jim Gilmore (dropped out)
• John Kasich
• Marco Rubio
• Donald Trump

Debates and forums

December 15, 2015 – Las Vegas, Nevada

The fifth debate was held on December 15, 2015, at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.[5] It was the second debate to air on CNN, and was also broadcast by Salem Radio. The debate was moderated solely by Wolf Blitzer with Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt serving alongside as questioners.[6]

The debate was split into primetime and pre-primetime groups based on averaged polling numbers; in order to participate in the main debate, candidates had to meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 which were recognized by CNN—either an average of at least 3.5% nationally, or at least 4% in either Iowa or New Hampshire.[7] The secondary debate featured candidates that had reached at least 1% in four separate national, Iowa, or New Hampshire polls that are recognized by CNN.[7] Paul was included in the main debate after not qualifying under the original rules because he received 5% support in Iowa in a Fox News poll.[6][8]

The debate lineup was announced on December 13 to include Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Fiorina, Christie, Paul, and Kasich in the primetime debate, and Huckabee, Santorum, Graham, and Pataki in the undercard debate.[6] Commentators suggested that the key confrontation would be between Trump and Cruz, based on their respective polling in Iowa.[9]

Eighteen million people watched the debate, making it the third-largest audience ever for a presidential primary debate.[10] During the debate, the audible coughing was attributed to Ben Carson. His campaign admitted that they all got sick a month prior and Carson had kept the cough for weeks. The cough was "almost gone" and Carson was not really sick at the time.[11]

The undercard debate was the fourth and final debate appearance of Senator Lindsey Graham and former Governor George Pataki, who suspended their campaigns on December 21[12] and December 29,[13] respectively.

Endorsements

Having been swept into numerous offices in the previous election, many new Nevada Republican officeholders came out in support of various candidates. Notably, there were splits among different groups of Republicans towards their endorsements. Legislators who had supported a controversial tax hike during the 2015 session came out in support of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, while those who opposed it supported Rand Paul, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.

(Note: This list contains endorsements only for candidates who were still running at the time of the caucuses)

Ted Cruz

• Attorney General Adam Laxalt
• Assemblywoman Michelle Fiore
• Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman
• Assemblyman Ira Hansen
• Assemblyman John Moore (also supported Rand Paul)
• Assemblyman Jim Wheeler
• Assemblywoman Vicki Dooling

John Kasich

• State Controller Ron Knecht
• Assemblyman John Hambrick (Speaker) (previously endorsed Jeb Bush)
• Las Vegas City Councilman Bob Beers

Marco Rubio

• U.S. Senator Dean Heller
• Congressman Mark Amodei
• Congressman Cresent Hardy
• Lieutenant Governor Mark Hutchison
• State Senator Michael Roberson (Majority Leader)
• State Senator Joe Hardy (President Pro Tempore)
• State Senator Patricia Farley
• State Senator Becky Harris
• State Senator Scott Hammond
• State Senator Ben Kieckhefer
• Assemblyman Paul Anderson (Majority Leader) (previously endorsed Jeb Bush)
• Assemblyman Stephen Silberkraus
• Assemblyman Lynn Stewart
• Assemblyman Derek Armstrong
• Assemblyman Randy Kirner
• Assemblyman David Gardner (previously endorsed Jeb Bush)
• Assemblyman Glenn Trowbridge
• Assemblyman Pat Hickey
• Assemblyman Erv Nelson
• Former Governor Robert List
• Former Lieutenant Governor Lorraine Hunt-Bono
• Former Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury
• Former North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck

Donald Trump

• Assemblyman Brent Jones

Opinion polling

List of polls

Winner Donald Trump Caucus date February 23, 2016 Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other Primary results February 23, 2016 Donald Trump 45.75% Marco Rubio 23.77% Ted Cruz 21.30% Ben Carson 4.79%, John Kasich 3.59% CNN/ORC[14] Margin of error: ± 6.5% Sample size: 245 February 10–15, 2016 Donald Trump 45% Marco Rubio 19% Ted Cruz 17% Ben Carson 7%, John Kasich 5%, Jeb Bush 1%, Someone else 2%, No opinion 4% Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 406 December 23–27, 2015 Donald Trump 33% Ted Cruz 20% Marco Rubio 11% Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, John Kasich 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Unsure 12% Morning Consult Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 249 November 10–16, 2015 Donald Trump 38% Ben Carson 18% Marco Rubio 12% Ted Cruz 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsay Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Someone else 1%, Don't know/No opinion 8% CNN/ORC[15] Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 285 October 3–10, 2015 Donald Trump 38% Ben Carson 22% Carly Fiorina 8% Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 2%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Chris Christie 1%, George Pataki 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsay Graham 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, None 3%, No opinion 3% Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 623 July 12–13, 2015 Donald Trump 28% Scott Walker 15% Ben Carson 8% Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Ted Cruz 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, George Pataki 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Lindsay Graham 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 20% Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 443 March 27, 2015 Ted Cruz 18% Scott Walker 18% Jeb Bush 16% Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Undecided 20% Gravis Marketing Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 438 February 21–22, 2015 Scott Walker 27% Jeb Bush 19% Chris Christie 8% Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Rick Perry 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 16%

Results

Primary date: February 23, 2016
County conventions: March 12 - April 2, 2016 (presumably)
State convention: May 7–8, 2016 (presumably)
National delegates: 30

Nevada Republican precinct caucuses, February 23, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	34,531	45.75%	14	0	14
Marco Rubio	17,940	23.77%	7	0	7
Ted Cruz	16,079	21.30%	6	0	6
Ben Carson	3,619	4.79%	2	0	2
John Kasich	2,709	3.59%	1	0	1
Invalid	266	0.35%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	170	0.23%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	64	0.08%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	50	0.07%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	22	0.03%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	21	0.03%	0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	11	0.01%	0	0	0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)			0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	75,482	100.00%	30	0	30
Source: The Green Papers

Donald Trump received more votes than the combined total of the 2012 Nevada caucuses, while also beating Mitt Romney's previous two records.[16] On the eve of the caucuses, Trump stopped by Palo Verde High School in Summerlin to greet voters.[17]

References

1. "AB302". www.leg.state.nv.us. Retrieved 2016-04-23.
2. "Nevada plan to dump presidential caucus falls short". POLITICO. Retrieved 2016-04-23.
3. WRAL: NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots
4. NC State Board of Elections presidential primary candidates' list (preliminary)
5. "2016 Presidential Debates Fast Facts". CNN. August 20, 2015. Retrieved September 13, 2015.
6. Scott, Eugene (December 14, 2015). "Stage set for final GOP debate of 2015". CNN. Retrieved December 15, 2015.
7. "CNN Republican presidential debate criteria announced". CNN. November 20, 2015. Retrieved November 20, 2015.
8. "How Rand Paul barely made it into Tuesday's main debate". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2016-01-02.
9. Sahil Kapur; Michael C Bender; Kevin Cirilli (December 15, 2015). "How the Fifth Republican Debate Could Reshape the Race". Bloomberg.com/politics.
10. "18 million watched Republican debate". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2015-12-17.
11. "The Cough That Consumed the GOP Debate". ABC News. 2015-12-16. Retrieved 2015-12-17.
12. "First on CNN: Graham ends his campaign for the White House". CNN. December 21, 2015.
13. "Former ny gov. george pataki says he's planning to drop white house bid". abc13. December 29, 2015. Archived from the original on January 4, 2016. Retrieved December 29, 2015.
14. "CNN/ORC Poll" (PDF). ORC International. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
15. "CNN/ORC Poll". ORC International. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
16. "Trump Has Won More Votes Than Romney Had At This Point in 2012". Weekly Standard. 2016-02-24. Retrieved 2016-04-22.
17. Segal, Cheryl. "Trump takes caucus site by surprise". TheHill. Retrieved 2016-04-22.