2018 United States Senate election in Nevada

The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. Senators from Nevada. Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen defeated Republican incumbent Dean Heller.

2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
November 6, 2018
Turnout62.26%
 
Nominee Jacky Rosen Dean Heller
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 490,071 441,202
Percentage 50.41% 45.38%
County results
Rosen:      40–50%      50–60%
Heller:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Dean Heller
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Jacky Rosen
Democratic

Elections in Nevada
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None of These Candidates

Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. He was the only incumbent Republican senator running in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.[1][2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada has been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 1994). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018.

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[3]

Background

Nevada is a swing state that leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.[4][5]

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]

Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, and the first female Representative to do so.[9]

Republican primary

Declared
  • Sherry Brooks
  • Sarah Gazala, teacher[10]
  • Vic Harrell
  • Tom Heck
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator[11]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements
Dean Heller
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local office-holders
Individuals
Groups
Danny Tarkanian (withdrew)
Governors
Individuals

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 99,509 69.97%
Republican Tom Heck 26,296 18.49%
Republican None of These Candidates 5,978 4.20%
Republican Sherry Brooks 5,145 3.62%
Republican Sarah Gazala 4,011 2.82%
Republican Vic Harrell 1,282 0.90%
Total votes 142,221 100.00%

Democratic primary

Declared
  • Danny Burleigh
  • David Drew Knight
  • Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[33]
  • Allen Rheinhart, civil rights activist (Black Lives Matter), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Jacky Rosen, U.S. Representative[34]
  • Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016[35]

Declined

Endorsements
Jacky Rosen
Former Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jacky Rosen 110,567 77.11%
Democratic None of These Candidates 10,078 7.03%
Democratic David Knight 6,346 4.43%
Democratic Allen Rheinhart 4,782 3.33%
Democratic Jesse Sbaih 4,540 3.17%
Democratic Bobby Mahendra 3,835 2.67%
Democratic Danny Burleigh 3,244 2.26%
Total votes 143,392 100.00%

Independents

Declared
  • Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate[75]
  • Kamau Bakari[76]

General election

Debates

Endorsements
Jacky Rosen (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers
Dean Heller (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide Elected Officials
State legislators
Local office-holders
Individuals
Groups
Newspapers

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[100] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[101] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[102] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[103] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[104] Tossup October 30, 2018
Daily Kos[105] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[106] Tossup October 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[107] Tossup November 1, 2018

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dean Heller (R) Incumbent $14,525,094 $12,538,859 $2,211,457
Jacky Rosen (D) $21,571,221 $20,817,629 $768,851
Source: Federal Election Commission[108]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Dean
Heller (R)		 Jacky
Rosen (D)		 Tim
Hagan (L)		 None of
these		 Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% – – – –
Emerson College November 1–4, 2018 1,197 ± 3.0% 45% 49% – – 3% 4%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% – – – –
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 44% – – – –
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 43% – – – –
Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 1, 2018 2,587 ± 1.9% 49% 46% – – 2% 3%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 45% – – – –
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 43% 46% – – – –
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 622 LV ± 4.8% 45% 48% 2% 4% 0% 1%
807 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 4% 8% 0% 3%
Gravis Marketing October 24–26, 2018 773 ± 3.5% 45% 47% – – – 7%
Ipsos October 12–19, 2018 1,137 ± 3.0% 47% 41% – – 8% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) October 15–16, 2018 648 ± 3.9% 46% 48% – – – 7%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 614 ± 3.7% 49% 51% – – – –
Emerson College October 10–12, 2018 625 ± 4.2% 48% 41% – – 3% 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–10, 2018 642 ± 4.0% 47% 45% – – 1% 7%
NBC News/Marist September 30 – October 3, 2018 574 LV ± 5.5% 44% 42% 8% 2% <1% 4%
46% 44% – 5% 1% 4%
780 RV ± 4.5% 42% 41% 8% 3% <1% 6%
45% 43% – 6% 1% 6%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS September 19 – October 2, 2018 513 ± 5.0% 45% 44% – – 4% 7%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018 693 LV ± 4.6% 43% 47% 4% 5% 0% 1%
851 RV ± 4.1% 40% 43% 5% 10% 0% 2%
Ipsos September 7–17, 2018 1,039 ± 4.0% 46% 43% – – 4% 8%
Gravis Marketing September 11–12, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 45% 47% – – – 8%
Suffolk University September 5–10, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 42% 2% 2% 4%[109] 9%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) August 20–21, 2018 528 ± 4.3% 43% 48% – – – –
Suffolk University July 24–29, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 40% 2% 5% 3%[110] 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,097 ± 5.5% 45% 48% – – – 7%
Gravis Marketing June 23–26, 2018 630 ± 3.9% 41% 45% – – – 14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) April 30 – May 1, 2018 637 ± 3.9% 42% 44% – – – 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,332 ± 5.0% 44% 50% – – – 6%
The Mellman Group April 12–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 39% – – – 21%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–17, 2018 720 ± 3.7% 39% 44% – – – 17%
Public Policy Polling June 23–25, 2017 648 ± 3.9% 41% 42% – – – 17%

Results
United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018[111]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jacky Rosen 490,071 50.41% +5.70%
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 441,202 45.38% -0.49%
n/a None of These Candidates 15,303 1.57% -2.97%
Independent Barry Michaels 9,269 0.95% N/A
Libertarian Tim Hagan 9,196 0.95% N/A
Independent American Kamau Bakari 7,091 0.73% -4.16%
Total votes 972,132 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Heller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest, Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes.[112]

Results by county
County Rosen Votes Heller Votes None Votes Others Votes
Washoe 49.85% 93,828 46.21% 86,988 1.50% 2,829 2.43% 4,582
Humboldt 21.41% 1,188 72.48% 4,022 2.50% 139 3.60% 200
Elko 19.14% 2,904 75.73% 11,491 1.71% 260 3.42% 519
Pershing 22.56% 398 72.05% 1,271 2.21% 39 3.17% 56
Churchill 20.80% 1,999 73.26% 7,042 2.27% 218 3.67% 353
Lander 16.72% 350 75.87% 1,588 3.06% 64 4.35% 91
Eureka 9.76% 74 83.51% 633 2.90% 22 3.83% 29
White Pine 19.59% 635 72.52% 2,351 3.12% 101 4.78% 155
Storey 30.68% 724 63.35% 1,495 2.16% 51 3.81% 90
Carson City 41.07% 9,321 54.32% 12,328 1.64% 372 2.97% 673
Douglas 31.86% 8,303 64.25% 16,742 1.49% 388 2.39% 624
Lyon 26.41% 5,526 68.32% 14,296 1.94% 406 3.33% 696
Mineral 31.49% 570 58.34% 1,056 4.97% 90 5.19% 94
Esmeralda 14.02% 52 75.47% 280 4.58% 17 5.93% 22
Nye 27.93% 4,888 65.11% 11,397 2.49% 435 4.47% 783
Lincoln 14.51% 283 79.33% 1,547 3.18% 62 2.97% 58
Clark 55.06% 359,028 40.90% 266,675 1.50% 9,810 2.54% 16,531

References
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  2. Rindels, Michelle (November 25, 2016). "Fresh off 2016 losses, Democrats target 2018 Senate races". Nevada Appeal. Retrieved November 25, 2016.
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  46. Martin, Gary (September 27, 2017). "Titus skips Senate race, will run for re-election to Congress". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
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  50. Masto, Catherine Cortez (July 6, 2017). "Today, I'm proud to endorse @RosenforNevada as Nevada's next U.S. Senator. Jacky's the fighter NV families need". Twitter. Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  51. "NV-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Jacky Rosen (D) Increase The Number Of Women In The Senate". Daily Kos. January 4, 2018.
  52. "AZ & NV-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps These Two Women Take Back The U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. December 13, 2017.
  53. "TX, NV & AZ-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D. WA) Helps Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 26, 2017.
  54. Kamisar, Ben (July 6, 2017). "Senate Dem campaign arm backs Harry Reid's pick for Nevada seat". The Hill. Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  55. Debenedetti, Gabriel; Everett, Burgess (October 24, 2017). "Reid gone from D.C. — but still pulling strings". POLITICO.
  56. "NV-Sen: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps Jacky Rosen (D) Win A Democratic Senate Majority". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  57. "AZ, TX & NV-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D) Helps Her Fellow Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 19, 2017.
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  61. Murillo, Jr., Ruben (March 1, 2018). "Nevada State Education Association Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate" (PDF). nsea-nv.org. Nevada State Education Association.
  62. Blue, Luisa; Springer, Debbie (February 28, 2018). "SEIU Nevada Local 1107 Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". seiunv.org.
  63. "WI & NV-Sen: Council For A Livable World Endorses Tammy Baldwin (D) & Jacky Rosen (D)". Daily Kos. November 19, 2017.
  64. Van Hollen, Chris (July 6, 2017). "DSCC Endorses Jacky Rosen In NV Senate Campaign - DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee". DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
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  66. Tiffany Muller (August 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
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  68. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate - League of Conservation Voters". League of Conservation Voters. August 2, 2017.
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  70. "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017.
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  73. "2018 Endorsements". Sierra Club. December 7, 2017.
  74. "Daily Kos endorses Nevada Democrat Jacky Rosen to oust the most spineless member of the U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. March 29, 2018.
  75. Barry Michaels (August 9, 2017). "Barry Michaels U.S. Senate Nevada 2018 - Challenges Federal Gun Control Act". EIN Presswire. Retrieved September 11, 2017.
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  77. Catherine Cortez Masto [@CatherineForNV] (October 20, 2018). "Proud to join @JoeBiden in Las Vegas to get out the vote for @RosenforNevada @nvdems today! I need Jacky by my side in the Senate & all of the fantastic dems running to fight for NV families. We have the power to take back the agenda. Make a plan to vote: votenvdems.com" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  78. Jacky Rosen. "There are just 17 DAYS until Nevadans head to the polls. @CoryBooker is #ReadyForRosen". Twitter.
  79. NV Dems. ""You make a difference. Every time you make a phone call, every time you knock on a door, you have the chance to get one more voter for Jacky and Susie!" Senator @maziehirono is right". Twitter.
  80. Brian Schatz. "Donald Trump is coming to Nevada this weekend to campaign, and I would like for us to raise money for Jacky Rosen in response. The race is very very very close. Please do what you can and thank you". Twitter.
  81. Dick Durbin. "Nevada is one of the most critical battlegrounds in the country. Support @RosenForNevada and help #FlipTheSenate". Twitter.
  82. Kirsten Gillibrand. "For Democrats to take back the Senate in November, we must elect @RosenforNevada. But President Trump is in NV today to campaign for her right-wing opponent, so #TodayWeAct to make an impact where we can in a race this tight – and this important. Here are 3 ways to get involved:". Twitter.
  83. Terri Sewell. "Speaking at a Sheppard's Breakfast in Las Vegas with my friends and colleagues @RosenforNevada, and @StevenHorsford! #BlueWaveComing2018". Twitter.
  84. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
  85. Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
  86. Adam Rippon. "Hey Nevadans! YOU have the power to make change by getting out and voting tomorrow for @RosenForNevada and @nvdems! #RiseNVote #ProudToVoteEarly". Twitter.
  87. Jacky Rosen. "You won't want to miss our Get Out the Vote Rally to Protect our Health Care on Friday with @JimmyKimmel, @BrandonFlowers, and @KamalaHarris". Twitter.
  88. Jacky Rosen. "Thank you for your support, @CecileRichards!". Twitter.
  89. "Nevada – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  90. "Retiree Group Endorses Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. September 19, 2018.
  91. "Jacky Rosen – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  92. "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection.
  93. "Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network". rachelsactionnetwork.org.
  94. "2018 Endorsements". Sierra Club. December 7, 2017.
  95. Dean Heller. "Looking forward to having Senator @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenCoryGardner here in Nevada!". Twitter.
  96. John Boozman. "I'm proud to serve with @DeanHeller in the Senate. Working with him on the #Veterans' Affairs committee, I know Dean cares deeply about ensuring our nation lives up to the promises made to those who have served & sacrificed for America and he'll continue that fight if re-elected". Twitter.
  97. Thom Tillis. ".@DeanHeller has been a staunch champion for our veterans as a member of the Senate VA Committee. His opponent just voted against government funding for veterans' benefits". Twitter.
  98. Donald Trump Jr. "It's simple - A vote for liberal Jacky Rosen is a vote to turn Nevada into California. Nevada patriots - Get out the vote on Tuesday for @Deanheller! #MAGA #NVSEN". Twitter.
  99. "EDITORIAL: Return Dean Heller to the US Senate". Las Vegas Review-Journal. October 19, 2018.
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  101. "Senate Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
  102. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate". centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
  103. "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  104. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  105. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 18, 2018.
  106. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  107. "2018 Midterm Election Forecast: Senate - Nevada". FiveThirtyEight. October 29, 2018.
  108. "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  109. Barry Michaels (I) and Kamau Bakari (AI) with 2%
  110. Barry Michaels (I) with 2%, Kamau Bakari (AI) with 1%, other with 0%
  111. "U.S. Senate - Nevada General Election 2018". silverstateelection.com.
  112. "Nevada | Full Senate results". cnn.com.
Official campaign websites
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