2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary took place in Massachusetts, United States, on March 3, 2020, as one of 14 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Massachusetts primary was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 114 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 91 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

March 3, 2020
114 Democratic National Convention delegates (91 pledged, 23 unpledged) The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Home state Delaware Vermont Delegate count 45 30 Popular vote 473,861 376,990 Percentage 33.41% 26.58%   Candidate Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Home state Massachusetts New York Delegate count 16 0 Popular vote 303,864 166,200 Percentage 21.43% 11.72%
Joe Biden   Bernie Sanders   Elizabeth Warren

Joe Biden won the state, whilst Bernie Sanders finished second and Elizabeth Warren finished third in her home state. Biden carried most of the state's counties and townships. Biden's victory was seen by many observers as a surprise, as both Sanders and Warren were favored in pre-election polls and forecasts over the former Vice President. [1][2]

One of the bigger upsets of the night, major polling prior to Super Tuesday had seen Sanders emerge as the favorite to win, edging out senator Elizabeth Warren in her home state. In fact, Joe Biden was only attributed a 1 in 12 chance of winning Massachusetts, but owing to his success in South Carolina and last minute endorsements from former Democratic opponents Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke, the former Vice President was able to surpass expectations and won the primary by more than 6%.[3][4]

Procedure

Massachusetts was one of 14 states holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday".[5]

Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with some precincts opening at 5:45 a.m. In the semi-closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level to be considered viable. The 24 unpledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 91 pledged delegates, between 6 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 12 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 20 at-large pledged delegates (although there are 114 delegates as stated in the approved MA 2020 Delegate Selection Plan[6]). These numbers include bonus delegates allocated to Massachusetts, since it shares a primary date with numerous other states on Super Tuesday.[7]

After congressional district caucuses on Saturday, April 25, 2020, during which national convention district delegates were selected, the state convention subsequently was held on Saturday, May 16, 2020, to vote on the 20 pledged at-large and 12 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 91 pledged delegates Massachusetts sent to the national convention were joined by 23 unpledged PLEO delegates (9 members of the Democratic National Committee; 11 members of Congress, including both Senators, notably Elizabeth Warren, and 9 U.S. Representatives, notably Seth Moulton; and former DNC chairs Steven Grossman, Debra DeLee, and Paul G. Kirk).[7]

Candidates

The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth released the following list of candidates on the ballot:[8]

Running

• Joe Biden
• Michael Bloomberg
• Elizabeth Warren
• Bernie Sanders
• Tulsi Gabbard

Withdrawn

• Pete Buttigieg
• Amy Klobuchar
• Tom Steyer
• Andrew Yang
• Cory Booker
• Michael Bennet
• Deval Patrick

Polling

Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregation	Date updated	Dates polled	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Joe Biden	Michael Bloomberg	Tulsi Gabbard	Others/ Undecided[lower-alpha 1]
270 to Win	March 3, 2020	Until March 3, 2020	22.4%	21.0%	15.0%	13.6%	1.8%	26.2%
FiveThirtyEight	March 3, 2020	until March 3, 2020 [lower-alpha 2]	24.4%	21.0%	18.1%	14.5%	0.4%	21.6%
Average			23.4%	21.0%	16.6%	14.0%	1.1%	23.9%
Massachusetts primary results (March 3, 2020)			26.6%	21.4%	33.4%	11.7%	0.7%	6.1%

Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Michael Bloomberg	Cory Booker	Pete Buttigieg	Kamala Harris	Amy Klobuchar	Beto O'Rourke	Deval Patrick	Bernie Sanders	Elizabeth Warren	Other	Undecided
	Mar 2, 2020	Klobuchar withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Swayable	Mar 1–2, 2020	917 (LV)	± 4.0%	17%	18%	–	11%	–	5%	–	–	27%	15%	8%[lower-alpha 4]	–
Data for Progress	Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020	301 (LV)	± 5.6%	26%	15%	–	2%	–	1%	–	–	26%	28%	2%[lower-alpha 5]	–
	Mar 1, 2020	Buttigieg withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV	Feb 26–29, 2020	500 (LV)	-	11.0%	13.0%	–	12.4%	–	5.0%	–	–	24.2%	22.2%	3.6%[lower-alpha 6]	8.6%
WBUR/MassINC	Feb 23-26, 2020	426 (LV)	± 4.9%	9%	13%	-	14%	-	6%	-	-	25%	17%	9%[lower-alpha 7]	8%
UMass Amherst	Feb 18-24, 2020	400 (LV)	± 5.9%	12%	9%	-	14%	-	7%	-	-	25%	23%	8%[lower-alpha 8]	3%
Falchuk & DiNatale	Feb 16-18, 2020	453 (LV)	–	13%	13%	–	13%	–	14%	–	–	17%	16%	5%[lower-alpha 9]	8%
University of Massachusetts Lowell	Feb 12-19, 2020	450 (LV)	± 6.1%	14%	12%	–	15%	–	9%	–	–	21%	20%	6%[lower-alpha 10]	4%
	Feb 12, 2020	Patrick withdraws from the race
Falchuk & DiNatale	Jan 27-30, 2020	334 (LV)	–	16%	8%	–	6%	–	7%	–	3%	12%	23%	7%[lower-alpha 11]	–
	Jan 13, 2020	Booker withdraws from the race
	Dec 3, 2019	Harris withdraws from the race
	Nov 24, 2019	Bloomberg announces his candidacy
	Nov 14, 2019	Patrick announces his candidacy
	Nov 1, 2019	O'Rourke withdraws from the race
WBUR	Oct 16–20, 2019	456	± 4.6%	18%	–	0%	7%	3%	1%	0%	–	13%	33%	7%[lower-alpha 12]	15%
Suffolk University	Sep 3–5, 2019	500	-	26%	–	1%	5%	3%	0%	1%	–	8%	24%	6%[lower-alpha 13]	25%
	Aug 23, 2019	Moulton withdraws from the race
Suffolk University	Jun 5–9, 2019	370	± 5.1%	22%	–	1%	8%	5%	0%	1%	–	6%	10%	5%[lower-alpha 14]	42%
	Apr 25, 2019	Biden announces his candidacy
	Apr 22, 2019	Moulton announces his candidacy
	Apr 14, 2019	Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Emerson College	Apr 4–7, 2019	371	± 5.0%	23%	–	2%	11%	7%	2%	8%	–	26%	14%	8%[lower-alpha 15]	–
	Mar 14, 2019	O'Rourke announces his candidacy
	Feb 19, 2019	Sanders announces his candidacy
	Feb 10, 2019	Klobuchar announces her candidacy
	Feb 9, 2019	Warren announces her candidacy
	Feb 1, 2019	Booker announces his candidacy
	Jan 21, 2019	Harris announces her candidacy
YouGov/UMass Amherst	Nov 7–14, 2018	655	–	19%	–	3%	–	6%	3%	10%	6%	14%	11%	1%[lower-alpha 16]	27%

Hypothetical polling
With only Biden, Sanders and Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Undecided Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine Oct 23-25, 2019 443 (LV) – 35% 13% 41% 11%

Results

2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[10]
Joe Biden	473,861	33.41	45
Bernie Sanders	376,990	26.58	30
Elizabeth Warren	303,864	21.43	16
Michael Bloomberg	166,200	11.72
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)	38,400	2.71
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†)	17,297	1.22
Tulsi Gabbard	10,548	0.74
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	6,923	0.49
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†)	6,762	0.48
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	2,708	0.19
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	1,257	0.09
John Delaney (withdrawn)	675	0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	617	0.04
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	426	0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	305	0.02
No Preference	5,345	0.38
Blank ballots	4,061	0.29
All Others	1,941	0.14
Total	1,418,180	100%	91

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Results by county

2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary (results per county)[9]
County	Joe Biden		Bernie Sanders		Elizabeth Warren		Michael Bloomberg		Pete Buttigieg		Amy Klobuchar		Tulsi Gabbard		Deval Patrick		Tom Steyer		Andrew Yang		Michael Bennet		John Delaney		Marianne Williamson		Cory Booker		Julian Castro		No Preference		Blank ballots		All Others		Total votes cast
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Barnstable	21,423	38.44	12,106	21.72	9,399	16.86	8,011	14.37	2,177	3.91	1,056	1.89	388	0.70	213	0.38	426	0.76	86	0.15	45	0.08	18	0.03	31	0.06	13	0.02	2	0.00	186	0.33	103	0.18	51	0.09	55,734
Berkshire	10,978	38.35	8,196	28.63	5,549	19.38	2,634	9.20	461	1.61	227	0.79	115	0.40	210	0.73	28	0.10	26	0.09	15	0.05	11	0.04	13	0.05	6	0.02	11	0.04	80	0.28	44	0.15	22	0.08	28,626
Bristol	29,181	36.91	22,885	28.94	10,606	13.41	10,350	13.09	2,196	2.78	818	1.03	635	0.80	547	0.69	488	0.62	120	0.15	88	0.11	46	0.06	44	0.06	37	0.05	25	0.03	504	0.64	307	0.39	189	0.24	79,066
Dukes	1,962	32.63	1,632	27.15	1,287	21.41	718	11.94	192	3.19	99	1.65	36	0.60	19	0.32	30	0.50	8	0.13	5	0.08	0	0.00	3	0.05	2	0.03	1	0.02	7	0.12	6	0.10	5	0.08	6,012
Essex	52,900	33.97	41,877	26.89	28,220	18.12	20,661	13.27	4,761	3.06	2,111	1.36	1,482	0.95	852	0.55	890	0.57	264	0.17	167	0.11	79	0.05	67	0.04	49	0.03	48	0.03	586	0.38	445	0.29	268	0.17	155,727
Franklin	4,804	23.54	8,185	40.11	5,159	25.28	1,274	6.24	305	1.49	159	0.78	161	0.79	84	0.41	66	0.32	42	0.21	8	0.04	47	0.23	10	0.05	2	0.01	1	0.00	44	0.22	44	0.22	13	0.06	20,408
Hampden	23,009	36.60	19,260	30.63	8,599	13.68	7,860	12.50	1,170	1.86	599	0.95	484	0.77	537	0.85	141	0.22	118	0.19	165	0.26	62	0.10	30	0.05	28	0.04	44	0.07	319	0.51	257	0.41	189	0.30	62,871
Hampshire	10,722	24.35	15,318	34.78	12,986	29.49	3,052	6.93	721	1.64	426	0.97	231	0.52	141	0.32	57	0.13	58	0.13	17	0.04	9	0.02	16	0.04	8	0.02	6	0.01	146	0.33	86	0.20	41	0.09	44,041
Middlesex	123,553	30.54	99,704	24.64	109,318	27.02	45,727	11.30	11,302	2.79	5,328	1.32	2,733	0.68	1,374	0.34	1,517	0.37	895	0.22	255	0.06	136	0.03	124	0.03	102	0.03	49	0.01	1,269	0.31	827	0.20	404	0.10	404,617
Nantucket	1,055	40.56	624	23.99	384	14.76	373	14.34	66	2.54	35	1.35	15	0.58	9	0.35	17	0.65	4	0.15	2	0.08	4	0.15	1	0.04	0	0.00	0	0.00	9	0.35	2	0.08	1	0.04	2,601
Norfolk	61,914	37.02	36,074	21.57	34,126	20.40	23,101	13.81	4,791	2.86	2,317	1.39	1,352	0.81	658	0.39	862	0.52	345	0.21	102	0.06	55	0.03	68	0.04	42	0.03	11	0.01	694	0.41	467	0.28	275	0.16	167,254
Plymouth	37,270	38.64	23,254	24.11	14,214	14.74	13,390	13.88	3,352	3.48	1,400	1.45	933	0.97	566	0.59	789	0.82	164	0.17	60	0.06	53	0.05	59	0.06	33	0.03	19	0.02	468	0.49	306	0.32	127	0.13	96,457
Suffolk	47,608	29.79	48,636	30.43	41,885	26.21	13,745	8.60	2,513	1.57	965	0.60	819	0.51	974	0.61	377	0.24	312	0.20	213	0.13	103	0.06	70	0.04	59	0.04	52	0.03	464	0.29	818	0.51	196	0.12	159,809
Worcester	47,482	35.18	39,239	29.08	22,132	16.40	15,304	11.34	4,393	3.26	1,757	1.30	1,164	0.86	739	0.55	1,074	0.80	266	0.20	115	0.09	52	0.04	81	0.06	45	0.03	36	0.03	569	0.42	349	0.26	160	0.12	134,957
Total	473,861	33.41	376,990	26.58	303,864	21.43	166,200	11.72	38,400	2.71	17,297	1.22	10,548	0.74	6,923	0.49	6,762	0.48	2,708	0.19	1,257	0.09	675	0.05	617	0.04	426	0.03	305	0.02	5,345	0.38	4,061	0.29	1,941	0.14	1,418,180

Analysis

Share of the vote by city and town.

According to exit polls, Biden overwhelmingly won voters over 50, followed by Warren, while Sanders did the same with voters under 40. Voters between the ages of 40 and 49 years old were split between Biden (32%) and Sanders (31%). Biden also won white voters by 8 points over Sanders and African-American voters by 7 points, while Sanders won the Hispanic/Latino vote over Biden by 13 points. Sanders also won the LGBTQ+ voters over Warren and Biden by 12 and 23 points respectively.[11]

Biden carried 7 of the state's 9 congressional districts: the 1st, 3rd, 4th (where Biden got his widest margin of victory), 5th, 6th, 8th, and the 9th. Sanders carried the remaining districts.[12] The one comprised by the Boston-Metro Area showed the best performance for Sanders, and was the only district where Warren finished second.[13] This was a change from the pre-election prediction that Biden would do better in this district and Sanders worse.[14]

Notes

Polling Notes

1. Calculated by subtracting polled candidates from 100%
2. FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Steyer with 4%; Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 3%
5. Gabbard with 2%
6. Steyer with 2.4%; Gabbard with 0.8%; refused with 0.4%
7. Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 2%; Would not vote with 2%
8. Gabbard with 4%; Steyer with 3%
9. Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%
10. Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
11. Steyer with 4%; Yang with 3%; Booker with 0%
12. Gabbard with 2%; Delaney, Steyer and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%; would not vote with 2%
13. Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock and Yang with 1%; de Blasio, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; refused with 1%
14. Gabbard, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
15. Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, and Yang with 1%; Gillibrand and Inslee with 0%; others with 5%
16. Moulton with 1%

References

1. "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-04-04.
2. "MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved 2020-04-04.
3. Rakich, Nathaniel (2020-02-28). "What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-07-08.
4. Breuninger, Kevin (2020-03-04). "Joe Biden wins Massachusetts primary, NBC News projects, a crushing blow to Elizabeth Warren". CNBC. Retrieved 2020-07-08.
5. Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
6. "2020 Democratic National Convention". Massachusetts Democratic Party.
7. "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
8. "Elections: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Candidates". www.sec.state.ma.us. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
9. "2020 President Democratic Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
10. "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". Retrieved 4 July 2020.
11. "Exit and entrance polls from the 2020 primaries and caucuses". www.cnn.com. Retrieved 2020-04-19.
12. "MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved 2020-04-19.
13. "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-04-19.
14. Rakich, Nathaniel (2020-02-28). "What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-04-19.

External links

• The Green Papers delegate allocation summary
• Massachusetts Democratic Party delegate selection plan
• FiveThirtyEight Massachusetts primary poll tracker