Demography of Scotland

The demography of Scotland includes all aspects of population, past and present, in the area that is now Scotland. Scotland has a population of 5,463,300, as of 2019. The population growth rate in 2011 was estimated as 0.6% per annum according to the 2011 GROS Annual Review.[3]

Map of population density in Scotland at the 2011 census
Historical population
YearPop.±%
18011,608,420—    
18111,805,864+12.3%
18212,091,521+15.8%
18312,364,386+13.0%
18412,620,841+10.8%
18512,888,742+10.2%
18613,062,294+6.0%
18713,360,018+9.7%
18813,735,573+11.2%
18914,033,103+8.0%
19014,472,103+10.9%
19114,760,904+6.5%
19214,888,407+2.7%
19314,842,989−0.9%
19515,095,969+5.2%
19615,179,000+1.6%
19715,229,000+1.0%
19815,035,000−3.7%
19915,083,000+1.0%
20015,062,011−0.4%
20115,295,403+4.6%
20195,463,300+3.2%
Source: [1] [2]

Covering an area of 78,782 square kilometres (30,418 sq mi), Scotland has a population density of 67.2/km2 (174/sq mi). Around 70% of the country's population (3.5 million) live in the Central Belt —a region stretching in a northeast–southwest orientation between the major cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow, and including the major settlements of Paisley, Stirling, Falkirk, Perth and Dundee- in the Central Lowlands (80%). Other concentrations of population include the northeast coast of Scotland, principally the regions around the cities of Aberdeen and Inverness, and the west coast around the town of Ayr. The Highlands of Scotland and the island group of Eilean Siar have the lowest population densities at 9/km2 (23/sq mi). Glasgow has the highest population density at 3,289/km2 (8,520/sq mi).[4]

Until April 2011, responsibility for estimating the population of Scotland, as well as recording births, deaths and marriages, was overseen by the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS), headed by the Registrar-General for Scotland. From 1 April 2011 onwards, the GROS merged with the National Archives of Scotland to become the National Records of Scotland. The new organisation is still required under the terms of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1966, to present a Registrar-General's annual report of demographic trends to Scottish Ministers. (Prior to devolution it was to the Secretary of State for Scotland). In conjunction with the rest of the United Kingdom, the National Records for Scotland is also responsible for conducting a decadal census of population. The most recent one took place in March 2012, with the next due to take place in 2022.[5]

Historical population
Evolution of the population of Scotland 1954–2014. Data from National Records of Scotland 2014.

Population change over time

In the United Kingdom, a census was taken every ten years from 1801 onwards; with the exception of 1941 due to the Second World War. Population data for years prior to that is provided from directories and gazetteers[6][7][8]

Year Population
1500 500,000
1600 800,000
1707 1,000,000
1755 1,265,380
1801 1,608,420
1811 1,805,864
1821 2,091,521
1831 2,364,386
1841 2,620,184
1851 2,888,742
1861 3,062,294
1871 3,360,018
1881 3,735,578
1891 4,025,647
1901 4,472,103
1911 4,760,904
1921 4,882,407
1931 4,842,989
1939a 5,006,700
1951 5,095,969
1961b 5,179,000
1971 5,229,000
1981 5,035,000
1991c 5,083,000
2001 5,062,000
2011 5,295,000

Notes

a. There was no census in 1941 however there was a National Registrar of the Civilian Population in 1939

b. Data for 1961 onwards rounded to nearest thousand

c. Data for 1991 mid-year estimate

Birth and mortality

Table of birth and mortality since 1900

Average population Live births Deaths Natural change Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Natural change (per 1000) Fertility rate
1900 4,437,000 131,401 82,296 49,105 29.6 18.5 11.1
1901 4,479,000 132,192 80,107 52,085 29.5 17.9 11.6
1902 4,507,000 132,267 77,941 54,326 29.4 17.3 12.0
1903 4,536,000 133,525 76,002 57,523 29.4 16.8 12.7
1904 4,564,000 132,603 77,981 54,622 29.1 17.1 12.0
1905 4,593,000 131,410 74,536 56,874 28.6 16.2 12.4
1906 4,621,000 132,005 75,635 56,370 28.6 16.4 12.2
1907 4,650,000 128,840 77,296 51,544 27.7 16.6 11.1
1908 4,680,000 131,362 77,838 53,524 28.1 16.6 11.4
1909 4,709,000 128,669 74,632 54,037 27.3 15.8 11.5
1910 4,739,000 124,059 72,268 51,791 26.2 15.2 11.0
1911 4,751,000 121,850 71,732 50,118 25.7 15.1 10.6
1912 4,741,000 122,790 72,340 50,450 25.9 15.3 10.6
1913 4,728,000 120,516 73,069 47,447 25.5 15.5 10.0
1914 4,747,000 123,934 73,557 50,377 26.1 15.5 10.6
1915 4,771,000 114,181 81,631 32,550 23.9 17.1 6.8
1916 4,795,000 109,942 70,640 39,302 22.9 14.7 8.2
1917 4,810,000 97,441 69,483 27,958 20.2 14.4 5.8
1918 4,812,000 98,554 78,372 20,182 20.5 16.3 4.2
1919 4,820,000 106,268 75,149 31,119 22.1 15.6 6.5
1920 4,864,000 136,546 68,179 68,367 28.1 14.0 14.1
1921 4,882,000 123,201 66,210 56,991 25.2 13.6 11.7
1922 4,898,000 115,085 72,905 42,180 23.5 14.9 8.6
1923 4,888,000 111,902 63,283 48,619 22.9 13.0 9.9
1924 4,862,000 106,900 70,357 36,543 22.0 14.5 7.5
1925 4,867,000 104,137 65,507 38,630 21.4 13.5 7.9
1926 4,864,000 102,449 63,780 38,669 21.1 13.1 7.9
1927 4,853,000 96,672 65,830 30,842 19.9 13.6 6.4
1928 4,848,000 96,822 65,271 31,551 20.0 13.5 6.5
1929 4,832,000 92,880 70,917 21,963 19.2 14.7 4.6
1930 4,828,000 94,549 64,285 30,264 19.6 13.3 6.3
1931 4,843,000 92,220 64,229 27,991 19.0 13.3 5.8
1932 4,883,000 91,000 66,045 24,955 18.6 13.5 5.1
1933 4,912,000 86,546 64,848 21,698 17.6 13.2 4.4
1934 4,934,000 88,836 63,741 25,095 18.0 12.9 5.1
1935 4,953,000 87,928 65,331 22,597 17.8 13.2 4.6
1936 4,966,000 88,928 66,749 22,179 17.9 13.4 4.5
1937 4,977,000 87,810 68,942 18,868 17.6 13.9 3.8
1938 4,993,000 88,627 62,953 25,674 17.8 12.6 5.1
1939 5,007,000 86,913 64,413 22,500 17.4 12.9 4.5
1940 5,065,000 86,392 72,775 13,617 17.1 14.9 2.2
1941 5,160,000 89,748 72,558 17,190 17.4 14.6 2.8
1942 5,174,000 90,703 64,963 25,740 17.5 13.2 4.3
1943 5,189,000 94,669 66,733 27,936 18.2 13.9 4.4
1944 5,210,000 95,920 64,603 31,317 18.4 13.5 4.9
1945 5,187,000 86,924 62,655 24,269 16.8 13.1 3.7
1946 5,167,000 104,413 64,605 39,808 20.2 13.0 7.2
1947 5,120,000 113,147 66,200 46,947 22.1 12.9 9.2
1948 5,150,000 100,344 60,979 39,365 19.5 11.8 7.6
1949 5,156,000 95,674 63,488 32,186 18.6 12.3 6.2
1950 5,168,000 92,530 63,996 28,534 17.9 12.4 5.5
1951 5,102,000 90,639 65,778 24,861 17.8 12.9 4.9
1952 5,101,000 90,422 61,510 28,912 17.7 12.1 5.7
1953 5,100,000 90,913 58,878 32,035 17.8 11.5 6.3
1954 5,104,000 92,315 61,380 30,935 18.1 12.0 6.1
1955 5,111,000 92,539 61,645 30,894 18.1 12.1 6.0
1956 5,120,000 95,313 61,792 33,521 18.6 12.1 6.5
1957 5,125,000 97,977 61,143 36,834 19.1 11.9 7.2
1958 5,141,000 99,481 62,065 37,416 19.4 12.1 7.3
1959 5,163,000 99,251 63,061 36,190 19.2 12.2 7.0
1960 5,178,000 101,292 61,764 39,528 19.6 11.9 7.6
1961 5,184,000 101,169 63,928 37,241 19.5 12.3 7.2
1962 5,198,000 104,334 63,189 41,145 20.1 12.2 7.9
1963 5,205,000 102,691 65,521 37,170 19.7 12.6 7.1
1964 5,209,000 104,355 61,039 43,316 20.0 11.7 8.3
1965 5,210,000 100,660 62,868 37,792 19.3 12.1 7.3
1966 5,201,000 96,536 63,689 32,847 18.6 12.2 6.3
1967 5,198,000 96,221 59,523 36,698 18.5 11.5 7.1
1968 5,200,000 94,786 63,311 31,475 18.2 12.2 6.1
1969 5,209,000 90,290 63,821 26,469 17.3 12.3 5.1
1970 5,215,000 87,335 63,640 23,695 16.7 12.2 4.5
1971 5,219,000 86,728 61,614 25,114 16.6 11.8 4.8 2.53
1972 5,223,000 78,550 65,017 13,533 15.0 12.4 2.6 2.27
1973 5,225,000 74,392 64,545 9,847 14.2 12.4 1.9 2.13
1974 5,226,000 70,093 64,740 5,353 13.4 12.4 1.0 1.97
1975 5,227,000 67,943 63,125 4,818 13.0 12.1 0.9 1.90
1976 5,227,000 64,895 65,253 -358 12.4 12.5 -0.1 1.80
1977 5,226,000 62,342 62,294 48 11.9 11.9 0.0 1.70
1978 5,212,000 64,295 65,123 -828 12.3 12.5 -0.2 1.74
1979 5,204,000 68,366 65,747 2,619 13.1 12.6 0.5 1.84
1980 5,194,000 68,892 63,299 5,593 13.3 12.2 1.1 1.84
1981 5,180,000 69,054 63,828 5,226 13.3 12.3 1.0 1.84
1982 5,165,000 66,196 65,022 1,174 12.8 12.6 0.2 1.74
1983 5,148,000 65,078 63,454 1,624 12.6 12.3 0.3 1.70
1984 5,139,000 65,106 62,345 2,761 12.7 12.1 0.5 1.68
1985 5,128,000 66,676 63,967 2,709 13.0 12.5 0.5 1.70
1986 5,112,000 65,812 63,467 2,345 12.9 12.4 0.5 1.68
1987 5,099,000 66,241 62,014 4,227 13.0 12.2 0.8 1.68
1988 5,077,000 66,212 61,957 4,255 13.0 12.2 0.8 1.68
1989 5,078,000 63,480 65,017 -1,537 12.5 12.8 -0.3 1.61
1990 5,081,000 65,973 61,527 4,446 13.0 12.1 0.9 1.67
1991 5,083,000 67,024 61,041 5,983 13.2 12.0 1.2 1.69
1992 5,086,000 65,789 60,937 4,852 12.9 12.0 1.0 1.67
1993 5,092,000 63,337 64,049 -712 12.4 12.6 -0.1 1.62
1994 5,102,000 61,656 59,328 2,328 12.1 11.6 0.5 1.58
1995 5,104,000 60,051 60,500 -449 11.8 11.9 -0.1 1.55
1996 5,092,000 59,296 60,654 -1,358 11.6 11.9 -0.3 1.56
1997 5,083,000 59,440 59,494 -54 11.7 11.7 -0.0 1.58
1998 5,077,000 57,319 59,164 -1,845 11.3 11.7 -0.4 1.55
1999 5,072,000 55,147 60,281 -5,134 10.9 11.9 -1.0 1.51
2000 5,063,000 53,076 57,799 -4,723 10.5 11.4 -0.9 1.48
2001 5,064,000 52,527 57,380 -4,853 10.4 11.3 -1.0 1.49
2002 5,055,000 51,270 58,103 -6,833 10.1 11.5 -1.4 1.47
2003 5,057,000 52,432 58,472 -6,040 10.4 11.6 -1.2 1.52
2004 5,078,000 53,957 56,187 -2,230 10.6 11.1 -0.4 1.58
2005 5,095,000 54,386 55,747 -1,361 10.7 10.9 -0.3 1.60
2006 5,117,000 55,690 55,093 597 10.9 10.8 0.1 1.64
2007 5,144,000 57,781 55,986 1,795 11.2 10.9 0.3 1.70
2008 5,169,000 60,041 55,700 4,341 11.6 10.8 0.8 1.77
2009 5,194,000 59,046 53,856 5,190 11.4 10.4 1.0 1.73
2010 5,222,000 58,791 53,967 4,824 11.3 10.3 1.0 1.72
2011 5,255,000 58,592 53,661 4,931 11.1 10.3 0.8 1.69
2012 5,313,000 58,027 54,937 3,090 10.9 10.5 0.4 1.67
2013 5,327,000 56,014 54,700 1,314 10.6 10.3 0.3 1.61
2014 5,347,000 56,725 54,239 2,486 10.6 10.2 0.4 1.62
2015 5,373,000 55,096 57,566 -2,470 10.3 10.7 -0.4 1.56
2016 5,404,000 54,488 56,728 -2,240 10.1 10.5 -0.4 1.52
2017 5,424,000 52,861 57,883 -5,022 9.7 10.7 -1.0 1.47
2018 5,438,000 51,311 58,503 -7,192 9.4 10.8 -1.4 1.42
2019 5,469,000 49,863 58,108 -8,245 9.1 10.6 -1.5 1.37
2020 46,778 64,084 -17,306 8.5 11.7 -3.2


Natural change

[9]

  • Births for January-November 2019 = 46,436
  • Births for January-November 2020 = 43,299

During the months from March to June 2020 the registration of births was affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.[10]

  • Deaths for January-November 2019 = 52,677
  • Deaths for January-November 2020 = 58,084
  • Natural increase for January-November 2019 = -6,241
  • Natural increase for January-November 2020 = -14,785

Age distribution

[11]

Ages 1901 1931 1951 1961
0-14 years 33 27 25 26
15-64 years 62 66 65 64
65 years and over 5 7 10 11
Total (%) 100 100 100 100

Place of birth

Places of birth given by respondents to the 2001 and 2011 censuses were as follows:

Country of birth 2001[12]2011[13]
Number % Number %
 Scotland 4,410,400 87.13% 4,411,884 83.32%
 England 408,948 8.08% 459,486 8.68%
 Wales 16,623 0.33% 17,381 0.33%
 Northern Ireland 33,528 0.66% 36,655 0.69%
 United Kingdom UK part not specified 941 0.02%
 Ireland 21,774 0.43% 22,952 0.43%
Total from all EU Member Countries 41,836 0.83% 137,285 2.59%
 EU Other Member Countries (joined pre 2001) 59,031 1.11%
 EU Other Member Countries (joined post 2001) 78,254 1.48%
Other Countries 127,926 2.53% 209,760 3.96%
Total 5,062,011 100.00% 5,295,403 100.00%

Below are the five largest overseas-born groups in Scotland according to 2019 ONS estimates.[14]

Country of birth Estimated population, 2019
 Poland 80,000
 India 25,000
 Germany 24,000
 Pakistan 23,000
 Ireland 18,000

Age

The age distribution based on the 2011 census was as follows.[15]

Population pyramid for Scotland as at the 2011 census.
Age group Population % of total
0–4 293,000 5.53
5–9 270,000 5.10
10–14 292,000 5.51
15–19 331,000 6.25
20–24 364,000 6.87
25–29 346,000 6.53
30–34 322,000 6.08
35–39 340,000 6.42
40–44 394,000 7.44
45–49 411,000 7.76
50–54 376,000 7.10
55–59 331,000 6.25
60–64 337,000 6.35
65–69 262,000 4.98
70–74 221,000 4.17
75–79 178,000 3.36
80–84 123,000 2.32
85–89 71,000 1.34
90+ 37,000 0.70

Ethnicity

The 2001 and 2011 censuses recorded the following ethnic groups:

Ethnic group 2001[16] 2011[17]
Number % Number %
White: Scottish4,459,07188.09%4,445,67883.95%
White: Other British373,6857.38%417,1097.88%
White: Irish49,4280.98%54,0901.02%
White: Gypsy/Traveller[note 1]4,2120.08%
White: Polish[note 2]61,2011.16%
White: Other78,1501.54%102,1171.93%
White: Total4,960,33497.99%5,084,407

96.02%

Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Indian15,0370.30%32,7060.62%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Pakistani31,7930.63%49,3810.93%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Bangladeshi1,9810.04%3,7880.07%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Chinese16,3100.32%33,7060.64%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Asian Other6,1960.12%21,0970.40%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British: Total71,3171.41%140,6782.66%
Black, Black Scottish or Black British[note 3]6,2470.12%
African: African, African Scottish or African British29,1860.55%
African: Other African4520.01%
African: Total 29,638

0.56%

Caribbean3,4300.06%
Black2,3800.04%
Caribbean or Black: Other7300.01%
Caribbean or Black: Total 6,5400.12%
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups: Total12,7640.25%19,815

0.37%

Other: Arab[note 4]9,3660.18%
Other: Any other ethnic group9,5710.19%4,9590.09%
Other: Total9,5710.19%14,325

0.27%

Total5,062,011100.00%5,295,403

100.00%

  1. New category created for the 2011 census
  2. New category created for the 2011 census
  3. Category restructured for the 2011 census
  4. New category created for the 2011 census

National identity
Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish only" according to the 2011 census.
Map showing the percentage of the population that identifies itself as "Scottish and British" and "British only" according to the 2011 census.

A question on national identity was asked in the 2011 census: "what do you feel is your national identity?".[18] Respondents could identify themselves as having more than one national identity.

In the 2011 census:[19]

  • 62% identified themselves as 'Scottish only'
  • 18% identified themselves as 'Scottish' and 'British'
  • 8% identified themselves as 'British only'
  • 2% identified themselves as 'Scottish' together with other non-British identity
  • 10% identified themselves with other national/ethnic identities only (neither Scottish nor British)

The council areas with at least 90% of the population stating some 'Scottish' national identity were North Lanarkshire, Inverclyde, East Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire. The lowest proportions of people stating some 'Scottish' national identity were in Edinburgh (70%) and Aberdeen (75%).[20]

The council areas with the highest proportions of people stating 'British' as their only national identity were Argyll and Bute and Shetland, each with 12%.[20]

Below is a table of national identity sorted by council area based on the results of the 2011 census:

Council areaScottish onlyScottish and British onlyBritish onlyOther UK identitiesScottish and any other identitiesOther only
Aberdeen54.7%17.7%8.3%4.7%2.5%12.1%
Aberdeenshire61.3%17.7%9.0%6.7%1.9%3.6%
Angus66.8%17.8%7.2%4.4%1.6%2.2%
Argyll and Bute57.4%17.2%11.6%8.9%2.4%2.4%
Clackmannanshire67.0%17.6%7.4%4.3%1.6%2.1%
Dumfries and Galloway59.6%16.7%10.1%9.7%2.0%1.8%
Dundee65.5%16.6%6.5%3.6%1.8%6.1%
East Ayrshire70.6%18.7%5.7%2.9%1.2%0.9%
East Dunbartonshire60.2%24.7%8.7%2.7%1.9%1.8%
East Lothian62.6%18.9%8.6%4.6%2.0%3.0%
East Renfrewshire59.0%25.6%9.4%2.4%1.9%1.8%
Edinburgh48.8%18.5%11.4%6.7%3.2%11.4%
Eilean Siar69.2%14.3%8.1%5.4%1.5%1.4%
Falkirk68.0%19.7%6.3%2.7%1.3%2.0%
Fife63.8%18.2%7.9%5.1%1.8%3.2%
Glasgow61.9%16.1%8.6%2.9%2.2%8.3%
Highland61.5%15.2%10.2%7.6%2.3%3.3%
Inverclyde69.9%19.7%6.3%1.9%1.1%1.1%
Midlothian68.3%18.2%6.8%3.2%1.5%2.0%
Moray58.4%15.9%10.9%10.0%2.1%2.7%
North Ayrshire68.2%19.4%6.8%3.2%1.3%1.1%
North Lanarkshire71.6%18.1%5.9%1.5%1.2%1.7%
Orkney62.4%13.8%10.8%9.8%1.6%1.6%
Perth and Kinross59.0%18.9%9.5%6.0%2.3%4.3%
Renfrewshire65.9%21.0%7.3%2.0%1.3%2.6%
Scottish Borders57.7%16.9%10.7%9.2%2.6%2.9%
Shetland59.9%15.7%11.6%7.6%1.8%3.4%
South Ayrshire63.9%21.0%7.6%4.3%1.6%1.6%
South Lanarkshire67.2%20.5%6.9%2.3%1.3%1.8%
Stirling57.5%20.0%9.6%5.8%2.5%4.6%
West Dunbartonshire72.0%17.3%6.0%2.0%1.1%1.5%
West Lothian65.2%18.8%7.6%3.4%1.6%3.4%

Religion
Main article: Religion in Scotland
Percentage claiming to be Roman Catholic in the 2011 census in Scotland

The statistics from the 2011 census and the 2001 census are set out below.

Current religion 2001[21]2011[22]
Number % Number %
Church of Scotland2,146,25142.4336,000
Roman Catholic803,73215.9841,05315.9
Other Christian344,5626.8291,2755.5
Total Christian3,294,54565.12,850,19953.8
Islam42,5570.876,7371.4
Hinduism5,5640.116,3790.3
Buddhism6,8300.112,7950.2
Sikhism6,5720.19,0550.2
Judaism6,4480.15,8870.1
Other religion26,9740.515,1960.3
No religion1,394,46027.61,941,11636.7
Religion not stated278,0615.5368,0397.0
No religion/not stated total1,672,52133.02,309,15543.6
Total population5,062,011100.05,295,403100.0

Languages
Main article: Languages of Scotland

Modern English is by far the most commonly spoken language in Scotland. Two regional languages of Scotland, Scottish Gaelic and Modern Scots, are protected under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. Abilities in these languages for those aged three and above were recorded in the UK census 2011 as follows.[23]

Ability Scottish Gaelic Scots
Usual residents aged 3+ Proportion Usual residents aged 3+ Proportion
No skills5,031,16798.30%3,188,77962.30%
Has some ability87,0561.70%1,929,44437.70%
Can speak57,6021.13%1,541,69330.12%
Speaks, reads and writes32,1910.63%1,225,62223.95%
Understands but does not speak, read or write23,3570.46%267,4125.22%
Speaks but does not read or write18,9660.37%179,2953.50%
Speaks and reads but does not write6,2180.12%132,7092.59%
Reads but does not speak or write4,6460.09%107,0252.09%
Other combination of skills1,6780.03%17,3810.34%
Total5,118,223100.00%5,118,223100.00%
Distribution of those who stated they could speak a regional language in the 2011 census
  • Scottish Gaelic
  • Scots

Over 170 languages are spoken in Scotland.[24] The 3 most commonly spoken non-English languages at home (by people aged 3 and over) are: Scots (55,817), Polish (54,186), and Urdu (23,394).

Historical demography
Stone houses at Knap of Howar, evidence of a settled agricultural population and the beginnings of demographic growth, c. 3500 BC

At times during the last interglacial period (130,000–70,000 BC) Europe had a climate warmer than today's, and early humans may have made their way to what is now Scotland, though archaeologists have found no traces of this. Glaciers then scoured their way across most of Britain, and only after the ice retreated did Scotland again become habitable, around 9600 BC.[25] Mesolithic hunter-gatherer encampments formed the first known settlements, and archaeologists have dated a site near Biggar to around 8500 BC.[26] Numerous other sites found around Scotland build up a picture of highly mobile boat-using people making tools from bone, stone and antlers, probably with a very low density of population.[27] Neolithic farming brought permanent settlements, such as the stone house at Knap of Howar on Papa Westray dating from 3500 BC, and greater concentrations of population. Extensive analyses of Black Loch in Fife indicate that arable land spread at the expense of forest from about 2000 BC until the period of the first century AD Roman advance into lowland Scotland, suggesting an expanding settled population. Thereafter, there was re-growth of birch, oak and hazel for a period of five centuries, suggesting that the Roman invasions had a negative impact on the native population.[28]

There are almost no written sources from which to re-construct the demography of early medieval Scotland. Estimates have been made of a population of 10,000 inhabitants in Dál Riata and 80-100,000 for Pictland, which was probably the largest region.[29] This does not include figures for parts of Northumbria now in Scotland. It is likely that the 5th and 6th centuries saw higher mortality rates due to the appearance of bubonic plague, which may have reduced net population.[30] The examination of burial sites for this period like that at Hallowhill, St Andrews indicate a life expectancy of only 26–29.[29] The known conditions have been taken to suggest it was a high fertility, high mortality society, similar to many developing countries in the modern world, with a relatively young demographic profile, and perhaps early childbearing, and large numbers of children for women. This would have meant that there were a relatively small proportion of available workers to the number of mouths to feed. This would have made it difficult to produce a surplus that would allow demographic growth and more complex societies to develop.[31] From the formation of the kingdom of Alba in the tenth century, to before the Black Death reached the country in 1349, estimates based on the amount of farmable land, suggest that population may have grown from half a million to a million.[32] Although there is no reliable documentation on the impact of the plague, there are many anecdotal references to abandoned land in the following decades. If the pattern followed that in England, then the population may have fallen to as low as half a million by the end of the 15th century.[33] Compared with the situation after the redistribution of population in the later clearances and the industrial revolution, these numbers would have been relatively evenly spread over the kingdom, with roughly half living north of the Tay.[34] Perhaps ten per cent of the population lived in one of many burghs that grew up in the later medieval period, mainly in the east and south. It has been suggested that they would have had a mean population of about 2,000, but many would be much smaller than 1,000 and the largest, Edinburgh, probably had a population of over 10,000 by the end of the era.[35]

Graph showing the population of Scotland 1900–2001. Source: General Register Office for Scotland Birth and Mortality statistics from 1900

Calculations based on Hearth Tax returns for 1691 indicate a population of 1,234,575, but this figure may have been seriously affected by the famines of the 1690s. The first reliable information is a census conducted by the Reverend Alexander Webster in 1755, which shows the inhabitants of Scotland as 1,265,380.[36] By the time of the first decadal census in 1801, the population was 1,608,420. Scotland grew steadily in the 19th century, to 2,889,000 in 1851 and 4,472,000 in 1901.[37] Even with the growth of industry there were insufficient good jobs, as a result, during the period 1841–1931, about 2 million Scots emigrated to North America and Australia, and another 750,000 Scots relocated to England.[38]

With a population of 4.8 million in 1911, Scotland sent 690,000 men to First World War, of whom 74,000 died in combat or from disease, and 150,000 were seriously wounded.[39][40] Thus, although Scots were only 10 percent of the British population, they made up 15 per cent of the national armed forces and eventually accounted for 20 per cent of the dead.[41] While emigration began to tail off in England and Wales after the First World War,[42] it continued apace in Scotland, with 400,000 Scots, ten per cent of the population, estimated to have left the country between 1921 and 1931.[43] When the Great Depression hit in the 1930s there were no easily available jobs in the US and Canada and emigration fell to less than 50,000 a year, bringing to an end the period of mass migrations that had opened in the mid-18th century.[44] This contributed to the growth of the population, which reached a peak of 5,240,800 in 1974. Thereafter it began to fall slowly, moving down to 5,062,940 in 2000. There was also a decrease in some urban populations as a result of policies of slum clearance, overspill and relocation to new towns, with the population of Glasgow falling from over a million in 1951 to 629,000 in 2001. Rural areas also saw a loss of population, particularly the Highlands and Hebrides.[45]

Population change
People on Buchanan Street in Glasgow. Scotland's population is getting older as many baby boomers approach retirement.

Scotland's population grew most years between the first census in 1855 up to around 5.2 million in 1974.[46] However, from 1974 to 2000 there was a natural decrease in population, with both an excess of deaths over births and of emigration over immigration - particularly to the rest of the United Kingdom. Since 2000 the population has increased most years and is projected to continue increasing until 2042.[47]

Fertility and morbidity rates

Both the Scottish Government and leading academics in Scotland had expressed some concern over the historic falling annual number of births in Scotland.[48] There were 49,863 live births registered in 2019, the lowest count since records began in 1855.[49] In 2004, for example, there were 4,012 more deaths than births, although for the subsequent five years this process had been reversed with 4,342 more births than deaths in 2008. The long-term reversal in the declining birth rate of the 1990s was confirmed in 2009 when the Registrar General for Scotland reported that with 60,000 births recorded in 2008, this was the highest recorded fertility rate since 1995.[50]

The population of children under age 5 grew by 6% (293,000) over the ten-year period between 2001 and 2011. However, the number of children aged 5–14 fell by 11% (69,000). The population of people over 65 also grew by 11% (85,000) and they now represent 17% of the total population and for the first time there are more people over 65 than under 15 years of age. Significantly, in 2011 there were 230,000 people over 80 years of age.[51]

Migration

Politicians and academics also noted that in the first years of the 21st century the previous trend of a net migration away from Scotland had reversed with significant immigration to Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom. Between 2001 and 2011 Scotland's population grew by 5% (233,000), the fastest rate of growth for at least 100 years.[51] Similarly, since 2004 there had also been a growing influx of arrivals from the new EU accession states such as Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia, contributing to the recent growth of the population. Consequently, since 2002 the birth rate gradually increased with 53,957 births recorded in 2004, and in 2008 the number of live births was 60,041[52]

The Scottish Government has responded to these demographic trends by setting up the Fresh Talent - Working in Scotland Scheme open to foreign (non-EU) graduates from Scotland's universities allowing them a two-year residency period after graduation.[53]

Population projections

In its 2011 review the GROS predicted that Scotland's population would rise by 10% to 5.76 million by 2035 and to 6.2m by 2085. Until 2028 both net inward migration and the birth rate exceeding the death rate would contribute to this growth, however beyond this date population increase would be due only to a positive net migration as the aging population would result in more deaths than births. This later trend would be dramatic with the number of children under 16 projected to rise by only 3% while the number of people over 65 is projected to increase by 63% (from 0.88m to 1.43m).[3]

Council area population estimates
Further information: Subdivisions of Scotland
Scotland council area population estimates
(2001 & 2011)[4][54]
Local council areaPopulation
(2001)		Population
(2011)		% change
(2001–11)
Aberdeen City212,125222,8005.0
Aberdeenshire226,871253,00011.5
Angus108,400116,0007.0
Argyll and Bute91,30688,200−3.4
Clackmannanshire48,07751,4007.0
Dumfries and Galloway147,765151,3002.4
Dundee City145,663147,3001.1
East Ayrshire120,235122,7002.1
East Dunbartonshire108,243105,000−3.0
East Lothian90,08899,70010.7
East Renfrewshire89,31190,6001.4
City of Edinburgh448,624476,6006.2
Na h-Eileanan Siar26,50227,7004.5
Falkirk145,191156,0007.4
Fife349,429365,2004.5
Glasgow City577,869593,2002.7
Highland208,914232,10011.1
Inverclyde84,20381,500−3.2
Midlothian80,94183,2002.8
Moray86,94093,3007.3
North Ayrshire135,817138,2001.7
North Lanarkshire321,067337,8005.2
Orkney Islands19,24521,40010.9
Perth and Kinross134,949146,7008.7
Renfrewshire172,867174,9001.2
Scottish Borders106,764113,9006.7
Shetland Islands21,98823,2005.3
South Ayrshire112,097112,8000.6
South Lanarkshire302,216313,8003.8
Stirling86,21290,2004.7
West Dunbartonshire93,37890,700−2.8
West Lothian158,714175,10010.3

Other statistics

Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.04 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 0.94 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female
total population: 0.94 male(s)/female (Mid-2011 est.)

Infant mortality rate: 4.1 deaths/1,000 live births (2011 est.)[55]

Life expectancy at birth (2011):[3]
total population: 78.4 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 72.2 in 1981)
male: 76.1 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 69.1 in 1981)
female: 80.6 years for those born in 2010 (cf. 75.3 in 1981)

General fertility rate:[3] The general Fertility Rate (GFR) is based on the rate of births per 1000 females of child-bearing age (i.e. 15–44 years of age).

In 2011 it was 56.4 births per 1000 women. For comparison, during the latter part of the 20th century it was at its highest during the 'baby boom' of the 1960s. The GFR reached a peak of 99.5 births per 1000 women in 1962. In 2001 the GFR had fallen to its lowest post World War II level of 50 births per 1000 women.

Languages: English, Scots (including Doric, Central and Border) and Gaelic

Marriages:[3] In 2011 there were 29,135 marriages in Scotland. This is a 2.3% increase on 2010.

By way of historical comparison, the highest ever recorded was 53,522 in 1940. In the 1970s there were on average between 40 and 45,000 marriages per annum. The lowest annual figure in recent years was 27,524 in 2009 and lowest on record was 19,655 in 1858.

Of specific interest were the number of so-called 'tourist marriages', where neither partner was resident in Scotland. In 2011 there were 6,829 such marriages, of which 48% took place at Gretna, the most popular of all wedding venues.

Civil partnerships[3] The Civil Partnership Act 2004 came into force in December 2005. In 2006 the number of civil partnership registrations was 1,047. A one-off figure given the number of long-standing relationships which already existed which could be registered. Since then the number of ceremonies each year fell from 688 in 2007 to 465 registrations in 2010. 2011 saw the first increase since 2006 with 554 registrations.

Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 99%
male: 99%
female: 99% (2005 est)

Higher education 95% of Scottish higher education students study in universities in Scotland.

See also

References
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Yes

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