2008 United States presidential election in Colorado

The 2008 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 4, 2008, as a part of the 2008 United States presidential election throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Colorado

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 9 0 Popular vote 1,288,633 1,073,629 Percentage 53.66% 44.71%

County Results Obama   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% McCain   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Colorado was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a margin of victory of 8.95%. Obama took 53.66% of the vote to McCain's 44.71%. The state was heavily targeted by both campaigns, although, prior to the election, all 17 news organizations actually considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state. While George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004, the Centennial State ultimately flipped allegiance to Obama. This was the first time since 1992 in which the state was won by a Democrat in a presidential election.

Key to Obama's victory was Democratic dominance in the Denver area, sweeping not just the city but also the heavily populated suburban counties around Denver, particularly Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson counties, as well as winning Larimer County, home to Fort Collins. Obama also took over 70% of the vote in Boulder County, home to Boulder. McCain's most populated county wins were in El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located, and Weld County, home to Greeley.

Colorado served as the tipping-point state for Obama's overall victory in the presidential election - that is, the first state to give a candidate their 270th electoral vote when all states are arranged by their margins of victory.

Caucuses

• 2008 Colorado Democratic caucuses
• 2008 Colorado Republican caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

• D.C. Political Report: Democrat[1]
• Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat[2]
• Takeaway: Leaning Obama[3]
• Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat[4]
• Washington Post: Leaning Obama[5]
• Politico: Leaning Obama[6]
• Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama[7]
• FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[5]
• CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat[8]
• New York Times: Leaning Democrat[9]
• CNN: Leaning Democrat[10]
• NPR: Leaning Obama[5]
• MSNBC: Leaning Obama[5]
• Fox News: Democrat[11]
• Associated Press: Democrat[12]
• Rasmussen Reports: Leaning Democrat[13]

Polling

Pre-election polling taken in Colorado prior to the election mostly showed Obama with a slight lead. He led every poll after September 25. The average of the last three polls showed Obama leading McCain 52% to 45%.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $3,491,086. Barack Obama raised almost $11 million.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $10,410,669. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,818,077.[16] McCain/Palin visited the state 13 times. Obama/Biden visited the state 8 times.[17]

Analysis

Changing demographics and a growing Hispanic population made the state more favorable to the Democrats, although Republicans still had a hold on the state due to the party's conservative stances on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control.

Like most of the Mountain West, Colorado had been traditionally Republican beginning with the Eisenhower landslide of 1952, in which Eisenhower overperformed throughout the region. Between 1952 and 2004, inclusive, Democrats prevailed in Colorado only in 1964 and 1992--the former, a national Democratic landslide; the latter, a three-way contest in which independent candidate Ross Perot had disproportionate strength in the West. In addition, Republicans had mostly held control of the state legislature and most statewide offices since the 1960s. Although Democrats had bases of support in Adams and Pueblo Counties and in the south of the state, and generally carried Denver (albeit often by narrow margins), this was generally no match for Republican dominance of the Denver suburbs, El Paso County (Colorado Springs), Larimer County (Fort Collins), and, until Dukakis flipped it in 1988, Boulder County, as well as of most of the rural areas of the state.

Recently, however, there had been a growing population of Hispanic Americans,[18] young professionals, and an influx of people from other states - all of whom tend to vote Democratic. These demographic changes caused the state's political ideology to shift.[19] While Republicans still enjoyed an advantage in voter registration statewide, Democrats had been closing the gap. There had also been an increasing number of unaffiliated, independent-minded voters.[20] Since 2004, Democrats had won the governorship, both Senate seats, three House seats, and control of both chambers in the state legislature.

At the presidential level, Colorado voted for Bush by 8.36% in 2000, making it the second-closest of the states carried by Dole in 1996 (behind only Virginia). Moreover, his 50.75% vote share was his lowest in any of the states carried by Dole in 1996, with Ralph Nader posting a relatively strong showing in the state in 2000. Colorado was not seriously contested in 2004, but Kerry cut Bush's margin down to 4.67% in the state, as Kerry flipped a number of ski-resort counties, scored the best showings in Denver and Boulder County of any presidential nominee in decades, and narrowed Bush's margins in the Denver-area suburban counties of Jefferson and Arapahoe, as well as in Larimer.

Bush's relatively narrow margin in the state in 2004, along with the demographic changes of the prior four years, led Colorado to become a crucial swing state in 2008. Both Barack Obama and John McCain campaigned extensively in the state. Several factors in the campaign favored the Democrat. Barack Obama did very well in the caucus, defeating opponent Hillary Clinton with almost 67% of the vote. On the other hand, John McCain badly lost the state to opponent Mitt Romney, who gained 60% of the vote. Moreover, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in Denver. The publicity generated from the event provided a strong boost to Obama. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Obama and McCain were neck-to-neck through the summer and early September. However, as the 2008 financial crisis hit, Obama's numbers in Colorado jumped to over 50%.[21]

During the campaign, several media organizations reported on voting machine problems. There was also reporting on the controversial practice of "purging" voter registration lists.[22]

On election day, Obama won by a comfortable margin, greater than his national average. Obama improved on John Kerry's performance throughout the state. He won landslides in the Democratic strongholds of Denver and Boulder; in both areas, Obama took more than 70% of the vote. He also further built upon Kerry's strength in a number of rich counties dominated by ski resorts along the Front Range; and continued to dominate the traditionally Democratic areas of Pueblo County, Adams County, and the thinly populated, Latino counties of southern Colorado.

McCain did best in the rural, conservative areas next to Kansas and Utah, where he won landslide margins. In Rio Blanco County, Mesa County, Yuma County, Washington County, Lincoln County, Bent County, Crowley County, and tiny Dolores County, Phillips County, Cheyenne County, and Kiowa County, he managed a slightly greater vote share than Bush in 2000. Voters in more populated El Paso County, home to conservative Colorado Springs, gave McCain a 19% margin, which, while a comfortable win, was far less than Bush's 35% margin in 2004. McCain also won two other relatively populated counties, Douglas County and Weld County, both outer suburbs of the Denver area--although, again, by substantially reduced margins compared to Bush in 2004. However, the largest suburban counties of the area, traditionally Republican Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties, flipped from Bush to Obama in 2008, as did Broomfield County, which cast its first presidential vote for Bush in 2004. Obama also flipped Larimer County. All together, this was more than enough to overcome Republican advantages elsewhere in the state, as Obama won it by a nearly nine-point margin.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats also did well. Democratic Mark Udall defeated Republican Bob Schaffer for an open U.S. Senate seats; his vacated House seat was also won by Democrat Jared Polis. In addition, Democrat Betsy Markey defeated incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave, by 12 points for Colorado's 4th Congressional District seat. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Colorado Senate, but lost two seats in the Colorado House of Representatives. Obama's 65.8% victory in Summit County was the highest percentage win by a Democratic presidential nominee in the county since Woodrow Wilson won the county with 70.3% of the vote back in 1916.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Colorado[23]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	1,288,633	53.66%	9
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	1,073,629	44.71%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	13,352	0.56%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	10,898	0.45%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	6,233	0.26%	0
	America's Independent	Alan Keyes	Brian Rohrbough	3,051	0.13%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	2,822	0.12%	0
	New American Independent	Frank McEnulty	David Mangan	829	0.03%	0
	Boston Tea	Charles Jay	Dan Sallis, Jr.	598	0.02%	0
	HeartQuake '08	Jonathan Allen	Jeffrey Stath	348	0.01%	0
	Objectivist	Tom Stevens	Alden Link	336	0.01%	0
	Socialist	Brian Moore	Stewart Alexander	226	0.01%	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva	Eugene Puryear	158	0.01%	0
	Socialist Workers	James Harris	Alyson Kennedy	154	0.01%	0
	Pacifist	Bradford Lyttle	Abraham Bassford	110	<0.01%	0
	Prohibition	Gene Amondson	Leroy Pletten	85	<0.01%	0
Totals				2,401,462	100.00%	9
Voter turnout						65.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others#	Total
Adams	58.22%	93,445	39.86%	63,976	1.92%	3,080	160,501
Alamosa	56.01%	3,521	41.92%	2,635	2.07%	130	6,286
Arapahoe	55.69%	148,224	42.78%	113,868	1.53%	4,064	266,156
Archuleta	42.81%	2,836	54.91%	3,638	2.28%	151	6,625
Baca	24.64%	536	72.28%	1,572	3.08%	67	2,175
Bent	41.61%	799	56.09%	1,077	2.29%	44	1,920
Boulder	72.29%	124,159	26.14%	44,904	1.57%	2,700	171,763
Broomfield	54.89%	16,168	43.31%	12,757	1.79%	528	29,453
Chaffee	49.01%	4,862	49.12%	4,873	1.87%	186	9,921
Cheyenne	17.82%	198	80.11%	890	2.07%	23	1,111
Clear Creek	57.78%	3,332	39.88%	2,300	2.34%	135	5,767
Conejos	55.60%	2,154	42.67%	1,653	1.73%	67	3,874
Costilla	73.36%	1,245	24.45%	415	2.18%	37	1,697
Crowley	35.43%	552	62.64%	976	1.93%	30	1,558
Custer	34.69%	912	63.60%	1,672	1.71%	45	2,629
Delta	32.94%	5,084	65.23%	10,067	1.83%	283	15,434
Denver	75.45%	204,882	23.04%	62,567	1.50%	4,084	271,533
Dolores	30.32%	369	67.21%	818	2.47%	30	1,217
Douglas	40.81%	61,960	58.03%	88,108	1.15%	1,751	151,819
Eagle	60.91%	13,191	37.77%	8,181	1.32%	286	21,658
El Paso	39.86%	108,899	58.69%	160,318	1.45%	3,958	273,175
Elbert	28.92%	3,819	68.97%	9,108	2.11%	279	13,206
Fremont	34.36%	6,844	63.60%	12,668	2.04%	407	19,919
Garfield	49.20%	11,357	49.21%	11,359	1.59%	366	23,082
Gilpin	59.07%	1,990	38.08%	1,283	2.85%	96	3,369
Grand	48.59%	4,037	49.68%	4,128	1.73%	144	8,309
Gunnison	62.64%	5,557	35.29%	3,131	2.06%	183	8,871
Hinsdale	40.07%	240	57.43%	344	2.50%	15	599
Huerfano	54.60%	1,989	43.37%	1,580	2.03%	74	3,643
Jackson	30.31%	277	68.27%	624	1.42%	13	914
Jefferson	53.60%	158,158	44.61%	131,628	1.79%	5,282	295,068
Kiowa	20.89%	178	76.29%	650	2.82%	24	852
Kit Carson	26.50%	912	71.32%	2,455	2.18%	75	3,442
La Plata	57.39%	16,057	41.11%	11,503	1.50%	419	27,979
Lake	61.93%	1,859	35.91%	1,078	2.17%	65	3,002
Larimer	53.99%	89,823	44.26%	73,642	1.75%	2,910	166,375
Las Animas	52.68%	3,562	45.64%	3,086	1.67%	113	6,761
Lincoln	23.70%	546	74.52%	1,717	1.78%	41	2,304
Logan	31.70%	2,846	66.86%	6,002	1.44%	129	8,977
Mesa	34.48%	24,008	64.02%	44,578	1.50%	1,045	69,631
Mineral	43.34%	270	53.61%	334	3.05%	19	623
Moffat	26.95%	1,582	70.43%	4,135	2.62%	154	5,871
Montezuma	39.42%	4,661	58.87%	6,961	1.72%	203	11,825
Montrose	33.91%	6,495	63.69%	12,199	2.40%	459	19,153
Morgan	37.26%	3,813	61.29%	6,272	1.46%	149	10,234
Otero	43.98%	3,547	54.47%	4,393	1.55%	125	8,065
Ouray	53.46%	1,636	44.67%	1,367	1.86%	57	3,060
Park	45.29%	4,250	52.18%	4,896	2.53%	237	9,383
Phillips	27.51%	622	71.34%	1,613	1.15%	26	2,261
Pitkin	73.74%	7,349	24.92%	2,484	1.33%	133	9,966
Prowers	32.22%	1,487	65.94%	3,043	1.84%	85	4,615
Pueblo	56.74%	41,097	41.78%	30,257	1.48%	1,073	72,427
Rio Blanco	20.81%	655	77.44%	2,437	1.75%	55	3,147
Rio Grande	44.97%	2,448	53.82%	2,930	1.21%	66	5,444
Routt	62.66%	8,270	35.80%	4,725	1.55%	204	13,199
Saguache	62.91%	1,730	34.76%	956	2.33%	64	2,750
San Juan	53.23%	264	43.95%	218	2.82%	14	496
San Miguel	76.99%	3,349	21.45%	933	1.56%	68	4,350
Sedgwick	34.64%	468	63.43%	857	1.92%	26	1,351
Summit	65.79%	9,802	32.77%	4,883	1.44%	214	14,899
Teller	34.97%	4,513	63.12%	8,146	1.91%	247	12,906
Washington	21.05%	529	77.56%	1,949	1.39%	35	2,513
Weld	44.67%	47,292	53.39%	56,526	1.93%	2,048	105,866
Yuma	24.92%	1,117	73.30%	3,286	1.78%	80	4,483

By congressional district

While Barack Obama won the state’s popular vote and 9 electoral votes, John McCain carried four of the state’s seven congressional districts, including both seats held by Republicans and two seats held by Democrats.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	24.25%	74.20%	Diana DeGette
2nd	34.10%	64.22%	Mark Udall (110th Congress)
			Jared Polis (111th Congress)
3rd	50.44%	47.90%	John Salazar
4th	49.54%	48.66%	Marilyn Musgrave (110th Congress)
			Betsy Markey (111th Congress)
5th	58.57%	39.89%	Doug Lamborn
6th	52.48%	46.17%	Tom Tancredo (110th Congress)
			Mike Coffman (111th Congress)
7th	39.49%	58.56%	Ed Perlmutter

Electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

1. Wellington Webb
2. Terry Phillips
3. Camilla Auger
4. Pam Shaddock
5. Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez
6. Don Strickland
7. Ann Knollman
8. Polly Baca
9. Margaret Atencio

References

1. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-19.
2. Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
4. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
5. Based on Takeaway
6. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
7. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
8. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
9. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
10. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
11. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
12. roadto270
13. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
14. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html#polls
15. "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-03.
16. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
17. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
18. Schaller, Thomas. Past Dixie. Simon & Schuster, 2006. 184.
19. Schaller, Thomas. Whistling Past Dixie. Simon & Schuster, 2006.
20. "Obama, McCain look west". Rocky Mountain News. 2008-06-07. Retrieved 2008-06-07.
21. RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
22. Williams, David (2008-08-27). "Palast uses DNC to tout 'Steal Back Your Vote' project". Colorado Independent. Archived from the original on 2008-10-16. Retrieved 2008-10-24.
23. "Colorado 2008 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2008-10-12.
24. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.