2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas

November 4, 2008

Nominee John McCain Barack Obama Party Republican Democratic Home state Arizona Illinois Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 638,017 422,310 Percentage 58.72% 38.86%

County Results McCain   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Obama   50-60%   60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.9% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush did in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain performed over 4% better than Bush did in 2004, more than any other state. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican (some by as much as a 30% swing toward the Republicans).[1] Of the 10 counties with the largest % swing to the Republicans in 2008, six of them, a majority, were in Arkansas.[2] Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Arkansas was one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season. It is also the strongest of five states that trended rightward in this election, the others being neighbors Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Tennessee, as well as West Virginia. This was the first time Arkansas did not vote for the winner of the presidential election since 1968.

Primaries

Arkansas swung and trended more Republican than any other state in the nation during the election

• Arkansas Democratic primary, 2008
• Arkansas Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

• D.C. Political Report: Republican[3]
• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican[4]
• Takeaway: Leaning McCain[5]
• Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Republican[6]
• Washington Post: Leaning McCain[7]
• Politico: Solid McCain[8]
• Real Clear Politics: Leaning McCain[9]
• FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain[7]
• CQ Politics: Safe Republican[10]
• New York Times: Solid Republican[11]
• CNN: Leaning Republican[12]
• NPR: Solid McCain[7]
• MSNBC: Solid McCain[7]
• Fox News: Republican[13]
• Associated Press: Republican[14]
• Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican[15]

Polling

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election, with leads ranging from 7% to 29%. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.[16] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.[17] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.[18][19]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.[20] Neither candidate visited the state.[21]

Analysis

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a 9-point lead among possible voters on Election Day.[22] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the state and local levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier.

A handful of counties--some of which not voting Republican since Richard Nixon won every county in 1972--swung safely into the GOP column. The Delta county of Jackson, for example, swung from a 14.3-point victory for Democrat Kerry in 2004 to a 16.3-point victory for McCain in 2008. A possible factor for such the large swing away from the Democrats could have been the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

Results

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2008[23]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	638,017	58.72%	6
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	422,310	38.86%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	12,882	1.19%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	4,776	0.44%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	4,023	0.37%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	3,470	0.32%	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva	Eugene Puryear	1,139	0.10%	0
Totals				1,086,617	100.00%	6
Voter turnout					64.52%

By congressional district

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	58.69%	38.41%	Marion Berry
2nd	53.98%	44.07%	Vic Snyder
3rd	64.16%	33.45%	John Boozman
4th	58.14%	39.33%	Michael Avery Ross

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others#	Total
Arkansas	37.53%	2,619	59.97%	4,185	2.49%	174	6,978
Ashley	34.44%	2,976	62.55%	5,406	3.01%	260	8,642
Baxter	32.73%	6,539	64.32%	12,852	2.95%	590	19,981
Benton	30.67%	23,331	67.20%	51,124	2.13%	1,618	76,073
Boone	28.66%	4,435	68.34%	10,575	3.%	464	15,474
Bradley	41.57%	1,680	55.98%	2,262	2.45%	99	4,041
Calhoun	31.17%	691	65.94%	1,462	2.89%	64	2,217
Carroll	39.44%	4,172	57.50%	6,083	3.06%	324	10,579
Chicot	58.43%	3,043	40.69%	2,119	.88%	46	5,208
Clark	46.92%	4,267	50.67%	4,608	2.41%	219	9,094
Clay	40.72%	2,244	55.02%	3,032	4.26%	235	5,511
Cleburne	26.03%	2,951	70.22%	7,962	3.75%	425	11,338
Cleveland	25.99%	911	69.93%	2,451	4.08%	143	3,505
Columbia	37.18%	3,554	61.32%	5,861	1.5%	143	9,558
Conway	38.70%	3,149	57.64%	4,691	3.66%	298	8,138
Craighead	36.47%	11,294	60.97%	18,881	2.56%	793	30,968
Crawford	25.51%	5,238	71.54%	14,688	2.95%	606	20,532
Crittenden	56.59%	10,330	41.91%	7,650	1.51%	275	18,255
Cross	36.19%	2,580	61.61%	4,393	2.2%	157	7,130
Dallas	44.33%	1,471	52.95%	1,757	2.71%	90	3,318
Desha	54.92%	2,569	42.73%	1,999	2.35%	110	4,678
Drew	39.30%	2,598	58.40%	3,860	2.3%	152	6,610
Faulkner	36.32%	14,955	61.59%	25,362	2.09%	862	41,179
Franklin	28.86%	1,869	68.12%	4,411	3.01%	195	6,475
Fulton	38.90%	1,819	57.78%	2,702	3.31%	155	4,676
Garland	36.37%	15,899	61.36%	26,825	2.28%	995	43,719
Grant	22.99%	1,562	73.94%	5,023	3.06%	208	6,793
Greene	33.36%	4,541	63.02%	8,578	3.62%	493	13,612
Hempstead	39.04%	2,869	58.14%	4,273	2.82%	207	7,349
Hot Spring	35.87%	4,288	60.30%	7,209	3.83%	458	11,955
Howard	36.03%	1,746	61.02%	2,957	2.95%	143	4,846
Independence	29.99%	3,688	67.12%	8,255	2.89%	356	12,299
Izard	34.34%	1,792	61.19%	3,193	4.47%	233	5,218
Jackson	39.54%	2,207	55.86%	3,118	4.6%	257	5,582
Jefferson	62.19%	18,465	35.89%	10,655	1.92%	569	29,689
Johnson	37.09%	3,034	60.17%	4,922	2.74%	224	8,180
Lafayette	39.04%	1,133	58.06%	1,685	2.89%	84	2,902
Lawrence	36.67%	2,138	57.58%	3,357	5.75%	335	5,830
Lee	60.14%	2,263	38.64%	1,454	1.22%	46	3,763
Lincoln	38.81%	1,710	57.04%	2,513	4.15%	183	4,406
Little River	34.03%	1,753	63.02%	3,247	2.95%	152	5,152
Logan	28.91%	2,286	67.66%	5,350	3.43%	271	7,907
Lonoke	25.14%	5,968	72.63%	17,242	2.24%	531	23,741
Madison	33.88%	2,144	62.77%	3,972	3.35%	212	6,328
Marion	33.29%	2,384	63.17%	4,524	3.55%	254	7,162
Miller	32.32%	4,869	65.81%	9,913	1.87%	281	15,063
Mississippi	47.59%	6,667	49.79%	6,976	2.62%	367	14,010
Monroe	46.83%	1,615	50.86%	1,754	2.32%	80	3,449
Montgomery	30.15%	1,092	65.30%	2,365	4.56%	165	3,622
Nevada	40.55%	1,474	56.73%	2,062	2.72%	99	3,635
Newton	29.85%	1,182	65.35%	2,588	4.8%	190	3,960
Ouachita	43.63%	4,346	54.49%	5,427	1.88%	187	9,960
Perry	31.60%	1,352	64.10%	2,743	4.3%	184	4,279
Phillips	63.50%	5,695	34.53%	3,097	1.97%	177	8,969
Pike	27.46%	1,089	68.76%	2,727	3.78%	150	3,966
Poinsett	34.59%	2,742	61.84%	4,903	3.57%	283	7,928
Polk	25.48%	1,957	71.25%	5,473	3.27%	251	7,681
Pope	27.18%	6,002	70.51%	15,568	2.31%	509	22,079
Prairie	31.00%	1,048	65.75%	2,223	3.25%	110	3,381
Pulaski	55.07%	88,854	43.52%	70,212	1.41%	2,277	161,343
Randolph	39.07%	2,469	57.21%	3,615	3.72%	235	6,319
Saline	28.43%	12,695	69.38%	30,981	2.19%	977	44,653
Scott	26.36%	1,053	69.86%	2,791	3.78%	151	3,995
Searcy	24.98%	961	70.86%	2,726	4.16%	160	3,847
Sebastian	31.64%	13,673	66.27%	28,637	2.09%	902	43,212
Sevier	28.19%	1,291	68.23%	3,125	3.58%	164	4,580
Sharp	33.59%	2,436	62.53%	4,535	3.87%	281	7,252
St. Francis	57.72%	5,486	41.21%	3,917	1.07%	102	9,505
Stone	30.02%	1,598	66.38%	3,534	3.61%	192	5,324
Union	36.03%	6,190	62.15%	10,677	1.82%	312	17,179
Van Buren	32.09%	2,151	63.79%	4,276	4.12%	276	6,703
Washington	42.44%	29,021	55.52%	37,963	2.04%	1,396	68,380
White	24.97%	6,732	72.22%	19,467	2.8%	756	26,955
Woodruff	51.14%	1,412	43.68%	1,206	5.18%	143	2,761
Yell	33.18%	2,003	63.09%	3,808	3.73%	225	6,036

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[25]

1. Jim Burnett
2. Reta Hamilton
3. Rose Bryant Jones
4. Phyllis Kincannon
5. Steve Lux
6. Kermit Parks

References

1. "Arkansas Swing 2008". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2013-10-27.
2. "2008 Election Statistics". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2019-05-04.
3. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". Dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
4. "Presidential | The Cook Political Report". Cookpolitical.com. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
5. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
6. "President, Senate, House Updated Daily". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
7. Based on Takeaway
8. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
9. "Electoral Map". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
10. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived June 14, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
11. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
12. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
13. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
14. "roadto270". Hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
15. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". Rasmussenreports.com. 2008-11-03. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
16. "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2012-07-26.
17. "Alabama: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
18. "Map: Campaign money race - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
19. Archived January 18, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
20. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
21. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
22. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arkansas". Retrieved 2008-12-17.
23. "Official General Election Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved 2008-12-12.
24. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
25. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved 2012-07-26.