2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

The 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, and his running mate U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

November 4, 2008
Turnout	69.2% ( 3.7%)[1]
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,677,211 1,262,393 Percentage 56.22% 42.31%
County Results Obama   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%   80-90% McCain   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Also on the ballot were four third parties: activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader ran as an Independent with his running mate, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez. The Libertarian Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Bob Barr for president and conservative author Wayne Allyn Root for vice president. Pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle were nominated by the right-wing Constitution Party, and the left-wing Green Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Cynthia McKinney and community organizer Rosa Clemente.[2]

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 13.91% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state, despite the extremely close margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections. Polling throughout the state began to show a sizable and widening lead for Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois over Republican John McCain of Arizona. Obama carried Wisconsin with over 56% of the vote, significantly improving upon John Kerry's margin of victory in 2004. No presidential candidate has ever received more votes in Wisconsin than Obama. Whether measured by raw vote margin, percentage of total votes, or two-party percentage, Obama's victory remains the strongest performance for any candidate in the state since the landslide re-election of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In fact, Obama carried two of three counties that voted for Barry Goldwater in that election, was the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry Waupaca County, and only the second Democratic nominee to carry that county since the Civil War.[lower-alpha 1]

Primaries

• 2008 Wisconsin Republican primary
• 2008 Wisconsin Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

• D.C. Political Report: Democrat[4]
• Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat[5]
• Takeaway: Solid Obama[6]
• Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[7]
• Washington Post: Solid Obama[8]
• Politico: Solid Obama[9]
• Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[10]
• FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[11]
• CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[12]
• New York Times: Leaning Democrat[13]
• CNN: Leaning Democrat[14]
• NPR: Solid Obama[15]
• MSNBC: Solid Obama[16]
• Fox News: Democrat[17]
• Associated Press: Democrat[18]
• Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[19]

Polling

Pre-election polling early on showed a tight race. However, after May 18, Obama swept every single poll. Since September 21, Obama won every poll with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 53% to 40%.[20]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,728,185 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,862,486.[21]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $13,586,634. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,240,899.[22] Each ticket visited the state 7 times.[23]

Analysis

Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominees by wide margins in 1988, 1992, and 1996, but extremely narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was originally considered to be a swing state in 2008.[24] However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state.[25]

Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory. Obama carried the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison by large margins, winning above two-thirds of the vote, along with some traditionally Republican cities like Green Bay and Appleton.[26] In Dane County, he won almost 73% of the vote, and carried 67.3% in Milwaukee County. This was consistent with Obama's pattern of strong performances in the states bordering Illinois. Obama's best performance, at 86.81%, was in the small county of Menominee, which is 87% Native American.[27] The state's Republican base essentially melted; John McCain only carried 13 of the state's 72 counties, a devastating defeat. McCain did best in the Milwaukee suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, with his best performance in Washington County where he received 64.14% of the vote. He only won five counties in the Northern part of the state, all of which by rather narrow margins. Wisconsin would not vote for a Republican candidate for president until it voted for Donald Trump in 2016, though it would flip back to the Democratic column in 2020 with Joe Biden back on the ballot.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which the counties of Barron, Brown, Burnett, Calumet, Chippewa, Clark, Iron, Jefferson, Kewaunee, Langlade, Manitowoc, Marathon, Marinette, Monroe, Oconto, Oneida, Outagamie, Pierce, Rusk, Shawano, Washburn, Waupaca, Waushara, and Wood voted for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[2]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	1,677,211	56.22%	10
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	1,262,393	42.31%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	17,605	0.59%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	8,858	0.30%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		6,521	0.22%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	5,072	0.17%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	4,216	0.14%	0
	Others	-	-	1,541	0.05%	0
Totals				2,983,417	100.00%	10
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						70.8%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others#	Total
Adams	58.14%	5,806	39.80%	3,974	2.06%	206	9,986
Ashland	67.86%	5,818	30.72%	2,634	1.42%	122	8,574
Barron	52.77%	12,078	45.69%	10,457	1.53%	351	22,886
Bayfield	63.08%	5,972	35.54%	3,365	1.38%	131	9,468
Brown	53.93%	67,269	44.77%	55,854	1.30%	1,621	124,744
Buffalo	56.41%	3,949	41.76%	2,923	1.83%	128	7,000
Burnett	49.92%	4,337	48.34%	4,200	1.74%	151	8,688
Calumet	50.22%	13,295	48.05%	12,722	1.73%	457	26,474
Chippewa	53.72%	16,239	44.63%	13,492	1.65%	500	30,231
Clark	52.54%	7,454	44.99%	6,383	2.47%	350	14,187
Columbia	56.92%	16,661	41.65%	12,193	1.43%	418	29,272
Crawford	62.49%	4,987	35.46%	2,830	2.05%	164	7,981
Dane	72.80%	205,984	25.82%	73,065	1.37%	3,890	282,939
Dodge	44.80%	19,183	53.74%	23,015	1.46%	625	42,823
Door	58.02%	10,142	40.68%	7,112	1.30%	227	17,481
Douglas	65.78%	15,830	32.56%	7,835	1.67%	401	24,066
Dunn	56.56%	13,002	41.61%	9,566	1.83%	421	22,989
Eau Claire	60.25%	33,146	38.10%	20,959	1.65%	905	55,010
Florence	42.23%	1,134	56.31%	1,512	1.45%	39	2,685
Fond du Lac	44.84%	23,463	53.83%	28,164	1.33%	696	52,323
Forest	57.08%	2,673	41.92%	1,963	1.00%	47	4,683
Grant	61.16%	14,875	37.29%	9,068	1.55%	377	24,320
Green	62.06%	11,502	36.31%	6,730	1.63%	302	18,534
Green Lake	41.95%	4,000	56.55%	5,393	1.50%	143	9,536
Iowa	66.73%	7,987	31.99%	3,829	1.28%	153	11,969
Iron	55.77%	1,914	42.66%	1,464	1.57%	54	3,432
Jackson	60.23%	5,572	38.40%	3,552	1.37%	127	9,251
Jefferson	49.69%	21,448	48.87%	21,096	1.44%	622	43,166
Juneau	53.65%	6,186	44.65%	5,148	1.70%	196	11,530
Kenosha	58.18%	45,836	40.12%	31,609	1.71%	1,344	78,789
Kewaunee	54.71%	5,902	43.67%	4,711	1.61%	174	10,787
La Crosse	60.94%	38,524	37.49%	23,701	1.57%	993	63,218
Lafayette	60.43%	4,732	38.10%	2,984	1.47%	115	7,831
Langlade	49.82%	5,182	48.85%	5,081	1.34%	139	10,402
Lincoln	55.17%	8,424	42.70%	6,519	2.13%	325	15,268
Manitowoc	52.88%	22,428	45.35%	19,234	1.77%	752	42,414
Marathon	53.53%	36,367	44.66%	30,345	1.81%	1,228	67,940
Marinette	52.67%	11,195	45.76%	9,726	1.57%	334	21,255
Marquette	51.85%	4,068	46.57%	3,654	1.58%	124	7,846
Menominee	86.81%	1,257	12.78%	185	0.41%	6	1,448
Milwaukee	67.30%	319,819	31.45%	149,445	1.25%	5,928	475,192
Monroe	53.25%	10,198	45.25%	8,666	1.50%	288	19,152
Oconto	52.34%	9,927	46.16%	8,755	1.51%	286	18,968
Oneida	54.30%	11,907	43.92%	9,630	1.78%	390	21,927
Outagamie	54.93%	50,294	43.33%	39,677	1.74%	1,592	91,563
Ozaukee	38.56%	20,579	60.29%	32,172	1.15%	614	53,365
Pepin	55.74%	2,102	42.85%	1,616	1.41%	53	3,771
Pierce	53.39%	11,803	44.38%	9,812	2.23%	492	22,107
Polk	48.03%	10,876	49.83%	11,282	2.14%	485	22,643
Portage	62.95%	24,817	35.03%	13,810	2.02%	795	39,422
Price	55.64%	4,559	42.24%	3,461	2.12%	174	8,194
Racine	53.07%	53,408	45.66%	45,954	1.27%	1,280	100,642
Richland	59.66%	5,041	39.03%	3,298	1.31%	111	8,450
Rock	63.82%	50,529	34.56%	27,364	1.61%	1,276	79,169
Rusk	53.01%	3,855	44.73%	3,253	2.26%	164	7,272
St. Croix	47.25%	21,177	50.95%	22,837	1.80%	807	44,821
Sauk	60.79%	18,617	37.75%	11,562	1.46%	447	30,626
Sawyer	52.45%	4,765	46.22%	4,199	1.33%	121	9,085
Shawano	51.07%	10,259	47.48%	9,538	1.45%	292	20,089
Sheboygan	48.94%	30,395	49.59%	30,801	1.47%	911	62,107
Taylor	48.82%	4,563	49.07%	4,586	2.11%	197	9,346
Trempealeau	62.50%	8,321	36.11%	4,808	1.39%	185	13,314
Vernon	60.13%	8,463	38.13%	5,367	1.74%	245	14,075
Vilas	47.21%	6,491	51.31%	7,055	1.48%	204	13,750
Walworth	47.95%	24,177	50.54%	25,485	1.51%	760	50,422
Washburn	51.50%	4,693	47.22%	4,303	1.27%	116	9,112
Washington	34.56%	25,719	64.14%	47,729	1.29%	963	74,411
Waukesha	36.64%	85,339	62.32%	145,152	1.03%	2,406	232,897
Waupaca	50.77%	12,952	47.95%	12,232	1.28%	327	25,511
Waushara	49.52%	5,868	48.70%	5,770	1.78%	211	11,849
Winnebago	54.94%	48,167	43.28%	37,946	1.78%	1,564	87,677
Wood	55.59%	21,710	42.46%	16,581	1.95%	761	39,052

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Barack Obama flipped 32 counties that voted for George W. Bush in the narrow election of 2004.[28][29]

• Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
• Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
• Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
• Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
• Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
• Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
• Columbia (largest city: Portage)
• Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
• Forest (largest city: Crandon)
• Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
• Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
• Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
• Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
• Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
• Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
• Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
• Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
• Marquette (largest city: Montello)
• Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
• Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
• Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
• Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
• Racine (largest city: Racine)
• Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
• Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
• Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
• Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
• Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
• Waupaca (largest city: New London)
• Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
• Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
• Wood (largest city: Marshfield)

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept the state, carrying seven of the state's eight congressional districts, including two districts held by Republicans. Three of these districts – the 1st, 6th, and 8th – Obama flipped from the 2004 election.[30] McCain only won the 5th district, a portion of the Milwaukee suburbs.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	47.45%	51.40%	Paul Ryan
2nd	29.78%	69.00%	Tammy Baldwin
3rd	40.80%	57.76%	Ron Kind
4th	23.61%	75.39%	Gwen Moore
5th	57.73%	41.28%	Jim Sensenbrenner
6th	48.72%	49.91%	Tom Petri
7th	42.52%	55.91%	David Obey
8th	45.12%	53.59%	Steve Kagen

Electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[31] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[32]

1. Ray Rivera
2. Fred Risser
3. Rollie Hick
4. Polly Williams
5. Dean Palmer
6. Gordon Hintz
7. Christine Bremer-Muggli
8. Donsia Strong Hill
9. Jim Doyle
10. Joe Wineke

Notes

1. Waupaca County did like most of Wisconsin vote for “Independent” Robert M. La Follette in 1924, but apart from this election and supporting Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936 it voted Republican in every election between 1868 and 2004.[3]

References

1. "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved 25 September 2020.
2. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
3. Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, pp. 337-342 ISBN 0786422173
4. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-25.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
5. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved January 14, 2015.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
6. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
7. http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html
8. Based on Takeaway
9. http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
10. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
11. Based on Takeaway
12. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
13. Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
14. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
15. Based on Takeaway
16. Based on Takeaway
17. "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. 2010-04-27.
18. http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/
19. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
20. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=55
21. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-18.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
22. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
23. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
24. "Reality Check: Wisconsin Still Considered A Swing State". Archived from the original on 2008-09-16. Retrieved 2008-11-12.
25. "RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin Head-to-Head Polls". Retrieved 2008-11-12.
26. "Local and National Election Results". CNN. Retrieved 2008-11-12.
27. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Menominee County, Wisconsin; Wisconsin". www.census.gov. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
28. "Wisconsin - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
29. "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-11-18.
30. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Retrieved 2020-11-18.
31. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
32. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/index.html#wi