2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina

The 2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina was part of the national event on November 4, 2008, throughout all 50 states and D.C.. In North Carolina, voters chose 15 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 15 0 Popular vote 2,142,651 2,128,474 Percentage 49.70% 49.38%

County Results Obama   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% McCain   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

North Carolina was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 0.32% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered the state as a toss-up, or swing state.

Throughout the general election, the state was heavily targeted by both campaigns. A high turnout by African-American voters, bolstered by overwhelming support from younger voters were the major factors that helped deliver North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state in 32 years. Prior to 2008, the last Democratic candidate to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton came within 20,000 votes of winning the state in 1992. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that the Democratic nominee carried North Carolina, which would vote Republican by narrow margins in the next three elections while still being considered a swing state. This is also the last time Jackson County, Hyde County, and Caswell County would vote Democratic, and the last time Nash County voted for the losing candidate.

Primaries

• 2008 North Carolina Democratic primary
• 2008 North Carolina Republican primary

Campaign

Predictions

A total of 16 news organizations made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

• D.C. Political Report: Republican[1]
• Cook Political Report: Toss-Up[2]
• Takeaway: Toss-Up[3]
• Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat[4]
• Washington Post: Toss-Up[5]
• Politico: Leaning McCain[6]
• Real Clear Politics: Toss-Up[7]
• FiveThirtyEight.com: Toss-Up[5]
• CQ Politics: Toss-Up[8]
• New York Times: Toss-Up[9]
• CNN: Toss-Up[10]
• NPR: Leaning McCain[5]
• MSNBC: Toss-Up[5]
• Fox News: Toss-Up[11]
• Associated Press: Toss-Up[12]
• Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up[13]

Polling

Early on, McCain won almost every single pre-election poll. However, on September 23, Rasmussen Reports showed Obama leading in a poll for the first time. He won the poll 49% to 47%. After that, polls showed the state being a complete toss-up, as both McCain and Obama were winning many polls and no candidate was taking a consistent lead in the state. Commentators attributed the drastic turnaround in the state to the influence of voter unhappiness about the financial crisis and the effectiveness of heavy advertising and organizing to get out the vote by the Obama campaign in the fall election. The final 3 polls found a tie with both candidate at 49%, which was accurate compared to the results.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,888,922 in the state. Barack Obama raised $8,569,866.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $15,178,674. McCain and his interest groups spent $7,137,289.[16] The Democratic ticket visited the state 12 times. The Republican ticket visited the state 8 times.[17]

Analysis

The winner was not certain even several days after the election, as thousands of provisional and absentee ballots were still being counted. However, when it became evident that McCain would need to win an improbable majority of these votes to overcome Obama's election night lead, the major news networks finally called the state's 15 electoral votes for Obama. North Carolina was the second-closest state in 2008; only in Missouri was the race closer.

Situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold in recent elections, North Carolina is an anomaly. While very Democratic at the local and state level, the last Democratic presidential nominee to win the Tar Heel State was Jimmy Carter in 1976; not even the Southern moderate populist Bill Clinton from Arkansas could win North Carolina.

Obama decided early on to campaign aggressively in the state. It paid off quickly; most polls from spring onward showed the race within single digits of difference between the candidates. He also dramatically outspent McCain in the state and had an extensive grassroots campaign of organizing to get out the vote. This was also one of the closest statewide contests of 2008, as Obama captured North Carolina just by 0.32% of the vote - a margin of only 14,177 votes out of 4.2 million statewide. Only in Missouri was the race closer, where McCain nipped Obama by less than 4,000 votes, a margin of 0.14%.

Republicans have traditionally done well in the western part of North Carolina that is a part of Appalachia, while Democrats are stronger in the urbanized east. When a Democrat wins in North Carolina, almost everything from Charlotte eastward is usually coated blue. Even when Democrats lose, they often still retain a number of counties in the industrial southeast (alongside Fayetteville), the African-American northeast, the fast-growing I-85 Corridor in the Piedmont, and sometimes the western Appalachian region next to Tennessee. For example, a map of Bill Clinton's narrow 1992 loss in North Carolina shows him narrowly winning all these regions.[18]

Obama did not take the traditional Democratic path to victory. Instead, his main margins came from the cities, where he did particularly well throughout the country. While Obama won only 33 of North Carolina's 100 counties, these counties contained more than half of the state's population.

Obama's victory margin came largely by running up huge majorities in the I-85 Corridor, a developing megalopolis which is home to more than two-thirds of the state's population and casts almost 70% of the state's vote. The state's five largest counties--Mecklenburg (home to Charlotte) Wake (home to Raleigh), Guilford (home to Greensboro), Forsyth (home to Winston-Salem) and Durham (home to Durham)--are all located in this area, and Obama swept them all by 11 percentage points or more. In 1992, Bill Clinton had been able to win only Durham County by this margin; he narrowly lost Forsyth and Mecklenburg (the latter was where Obama had his biggest margin in the state). Ultimately, Obama's combined margin of 350,000 votes in these counties was too much for McCain to overcome.

McCain did well in the Charlotte suburbs, Appalachian foothills and mountain country; he carried all but four counties west of Winston-Salem. Aside from the I-85 Corridor, Obama's results were mediocre in the traditional Democratic base. He lost badly in Appalachia, mirroring the difficulties he had throughout this region. Obama won only three counties in this region, one of which was Buncombe County, home to Asheville, the largest city in the region and a destination for retirees from the North. In the Fayetteville area, he did as well as Al Gore (who had lost North Carolina by double digits).

Obama did not rely on the traditional Democratic base but rather a new coalition of city voters to win North Carolina. If he had not taken the five largest counties, Obama would have lost the state by a considerable margin; instead, he pulled off the narrowest victory by creating a unique coalition of voters. He particularly attracted highly affluent and educated migrants from the Northeast, who traditionally tend to vote Democratic; as well as African Americans, Hispanics (an increasing population in the state), and college students, voting blocs who had overwhelmingly supported him during the course of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

During the same election, Democrats picked up a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina's 8th congressional district, where incumbent Republican Robin Hayes was ousted by Democrat Larry Kissell, a high school social studies teacher who almost toppled Hayes in 2006. Kissell received 55.38% of the vote while Hayes took in 44.62%, a 10.76-percent difference. Democrats held onto the Governor's Mansion; term-limited incumbent Democratic Governor Mike Easley was ineligible to seek a third term but Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue defeated Republican Pat McCrory, the incumbent mayor of Charlotte. Perdue received 50.23% of the vote while McCrory took 46.90%, with the remaining 2.86% going to Libertarian Michael Munger.

In a highly targeted U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan defeated incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole by a wider-than-anticipated margin - by 8.47 points. Hagan received 52.65% while Dole took 44.18%. The race received widespread attention after the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) ran its notorious "Godless" ad that accused Hagan, a Sunday school teacher, of accepting money from atheists and accused her of being an atheist. The adverse reaction resulting from the ad was considered a major factor contributing to Dole's defeat. At the state level, Democrats increased their gains in the North Carolina General Assembly, picking up five seats in the North Carolina House of Representatives and one seat in the North Carolina Senate.

According to exit polls, more than 95% of African American voters cast ballots for Obama. This played a critical role in North Carolina, as 95% of the state's registered African-American voters turned out, with Obama carrying an unprecedented 100% of African-American women, as well as younger African Americans aged 18 to 29, according to exit polling. Comparatively, the overall turnout of voters statewide was 69%.[19]

Results

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	2,142,651	49.70%	15
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	2,128,474	49.38%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	25,722	0.60%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		12,292	0.29%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader (Write-in)	Matt Gonzalez	1,454	0.03%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney (Write-in)	Rosa Clemente	158	0.00%	0
	Others	Others		38	0.00%	0
Totals				4,310,789	100.00%	15
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						63.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Others%	Others#	Total
Alamance	44.91%	28,590	54.19%	34,501	0.90%	576	63,667
Alexander	29.96%	5,153	68.31%	11,747	1.73%	297	17,197
Alleghany	38.40%	2,017	59.35%	3,117	2.25%	118	5,252
Anson	60.34%	6,293	38.99%	4,067	0.67%	70	10,430
Ashe	37.31%	4,861	60.53%	7,885	2.16%	281	13,027
Avery	27.51%	2,163	71.43%	5,617	1.07%	84	7,864
Beaufort	41.06%	9,426	58.53%	13,437	0.42%	96	22,959
Bertie	65.03%	6,248	34.74%	3,338	0.23%	22	9,608
Bladen	50.71%	7,846	48.67%	7,530	0.61%	95	15,471
Brunswick	40.56%	21,280	58.44%	30,662	1.00%	524	52,466
Buncombe	56.33%	69,415	42.39%	52,236	1.29%	1,585	123,236
Burke	39.71%	14,623	59.10%	21,766	1.19%	440	36,829
Cabarrus	40.48%	31,191	58.84%	45,340	0.68%	524	77,055
Caldwell	34.35%	12,007	64.08%	22,397	1.57%	548	34,952
Camden	33.14%	1,587	65.11%	3,118	1.75%	84	4,789
Carteret	32.32%	11,079	66.70%	22,868	0.98%	336	34,283
Caswell	50.84%	5,466	48.15%	5,177	1.01%	109	10,752
Catawba	36.91%	25,535	61.93%	42,843	1.16%	802	69,180
Chatham	54.34%	17,783	44.59%	14,591	1.07%	350	32,724
Cherokee	29.99%	3,748	68.74%	8,591	1.26%	158	12,497
Chowan	48.99%	3,652	50.32%	3,751	0.68%	51	7,454
Clay	31.33%	1,731	66.82%	3,692	1.85%	102	5,525
Cleveland	39.60%	17,274	59.49%	25,950	0.90%	394	43,618
Columbus	45.63%	11,088	53.49%	12,998	0.87%	212	24,298
Craven	42.44%	17,335	56.71%	23,163	0.84%	345	40,843
Cumberland	58.55%	73,926	40.87%	51,596	0.58%	731	126,253
Currituck	33.58%	3,685	65.23%	7,159	1.19%	131	10,975
Dare	44.07%	7,760	54.63%	9,621	1.30%	229	17,610
Davidson	32.61%	22,192	66.32%	45,135	1.07%	729	68,056
Davie	30.27%	6,102	68.69%	13,846	1.04%	209	20,157
Duplin	44.98%	8,866	54.45%	10,734	0.57%	112	19,712
Durham	75.53%	102,237	23.67%	32,040	0.80%	1,088	135,365
Edgecombe	67.14%	17,365	32.54%	8,416	0.32%	82	25,863
Forsyth	54.85%	90,712	44.32%	73,304	0.83%	1,374	165,390
Franklin	49.17%	13,022	49.77%	13,183	1.06%	281	26,486
Gaston	37.21%	31,247	62.18%	52,220	0.61%	511	83,978
Gates	52.20%	2,827	47.01%	2,546	0.79%	43	5,416
Graham	30.33%	1,265	67.71%	2,824	1.97%	82	4,171
Granville	52.91%	13,010	46.26%	11,373	0.83%	204	24,587
Greene	46.78%	3,774	52.78%	4,258	0.43%	35	8,067
Guilford	58.75%	141,680	40.44%	97,511	0.81%	1,952	241,143
Halifax	63.73%	15,726	35.93%	8,867	0.34%	83	24,676
Harnett	41.12%	16,519	58.03%	23,311	0.85%	341	40,171
Haywood	45.36%	12,724	53.12%	14,902	1.52%	427	28,053
Henderson	38.90%	20,062	59.93%	30,903	1.17%	602	51,567
Hertford	70.49%	7,479	29.06%	3,083	0.45%	48	10,610
Hoke	59.16%	9,133	40.14%	6,197	0.69%	107	15,437
Hyde	50.12%	1,225	49.22%	1,203	0.65%	16	2,444
Iredell	37.33%	27,201	61.72%	44,979	0.96%	696	72,876
Jackson	51.89%	8,671	46.64%	7,793	1.47%	246	16,710
Johnston	37.69%	26,475	61.45%	43,164	0.85%	600	70,239
Jones	45.44%	2,364	53.95%	2,807	0.62%	32	5,203
Lee	45.38%	10,703	53.65%	12,652	0.97%	229	23,584
Lenoir	49.54%	13,157	50.01%	13,281	0.44%	118	26,556
Lincoln	32.71%	11,674	66.02%	23,561	1.27%	454	35,689
Macon	38.47%	6,603	59.78%	10,262	1.75%	301	17,166
Madison	48.43%	5,011	50.01%	5,175	1.56%	161	10,347
Martin	52.13%	6,488	47.51%	5,914	0.36%	45	12,447
McDowell	35.84%	6,514	62.62%	11,382	1.55%	281	18,177
Mecklenburg	61.83%	252,642	37.43%	152,957	0.74%	3,011	408,610
Mitchell	28.46%	2,220	70.14%	5,472	1.40%	109	7,801
Montgomery	43.78%	4,870	55.06%	6,125	1.16%	129	11,124
Moore	38.89%	17,534	60.25%	27,165	0.86%	390	45,089
Nash	49.00%	23,013	50.38%	23,660	0.62%	291	46,964
New Hanover	48.80%	48,588	50.22%	50,004	0.98%	976	99,568
Northampton	65.03%	6,893	34.55%	3,662	0.42%	44	10,599
Onslow	38.85%	19,296	60.29%	29,942	0.86%	426	49,664
Orange	71.83%	53,712	27.05%	20,226	1.12%	838	74,776
Pamlico	42.22%	2,820	57.02%	3,809	0.76%	51	6,680
Pasquotank	56.44%	10,170	42.84%	7,720	0.72%	130	18,020
Pender	41.71%	9,832	57.34%	13,517	0.95%	224	23,573
Perquimans	42.57%	2,761	56.65%	3,674	0.79%	51	6,486
Person	45.28%	8,410	53.88%	10,007	0.84%	156	18,573
Pitt	53.99%	39,763	45.39%	33,429	0.62%	456	73,648
Polk	41.63%	4,394	56.71%	5,986	1.67%	176	10,556
Randolph	28.23%	16,280	70.49%	40,644	1.27%	735	57,659
Richmond	50.21%	9,586	48.80%	9,316	1.00%	190	19,092
Robeson	56.44%	22,315	42.70%	16,883	0.87%	343	39,541
Rockingham	42.22%	16,730	56.62%	22,435	1.16%	458	39,623
Rowan	37.98%	23,272	60.85%	37,284	1.17%	718	61,274
Rutherford	33.62%	9,595	65.29%	18,631	1.09%	310	28,536
Sampson	45.43%	11,753	53.93%	13,952	0.63%	164	25,869
Scotland	57.33%	8,105	42.24%	5,972	0.43%	61	14,138
Stanly	31.14%	8,815	67.80%	19,193	1.06%	299	28,307
Stokes	31.66%	6,816	66.58%	14,335	1.76%	380	21,531
Surry	35.50%	10,399	63.41%	18,574	1.09%	320	29,293
Swain	48.40%	2,803	50.01%	2,896	1.59%	92	5,791
Transylvania	43.04%	7,203	55.57%	9,299	1.39%	233	16,735
Tyrrell	48.82%	932	50.29%	960	0.89%	17	1,909
Union	36.22%	31,038	62.88%	53,882	0.91%	777	85,697
Vance	63.02%	13,095	36.50%	7,584	0.48%	99	20,778
Wake	56.92%	247,914	42.08%	183,291	1.00%	4,353	435,558
Warren	68.68%	6,663	30.84%	2,992	0.47%	46	9,701
Washington	58.01%	3,734	41.43%	2,667	0.56%	36	6,437
Watauga	51.31%	14,513	47.03%	13,303	1.66%	470	28,286
Wayne	45.41%	22,507	54.07%	26,800	0.52%	259	49,566
Wilkes	30.09%	8,889	68.21%	20,152	1.70%	502	29,543
Wilson	51.64%	19,754	47.93%	18,338	0.43%	164	38,256
Yadkin	26.37%	4,501	72.39%	12,355	1.24%	211	17,067
Yancey	46.19%	4,470	51.89%	5,021	1.92%	186	9,677

By congressional district

Despite Barack Obama winning North Carolina, John McCain carried seven of the state's 13 congressional districts, including two districts represented by Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	37.11%	62.44%	G.K. Butterfield
2nd	47.29%	51.91%	Bob Etheridge
3rd	61.37%	37.83%	Walter B. Jones
4th	36.32%	62.70%	David Price
5th	60.83%	37.91%	Virginia Foxx
6th	62.76%	36.20%	Howard Coble
7th	52.35%	46.79%	Mike McIntyre
8th	46.68%	52.56%	Robin Hayes (110th Congress)
			Larry Kissell (111th Congress)
9th	54.46%	44.75%	Sue Myrick
10th	63.11%	35.74%	Patrick T. McHenry
11th	52.12%	46.50%	Heath Shuler
12th	28.93%	70.42%	Mel Watt
13th	40.38%	58.70%	Brad Miller

Electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[21]

1. Janice Cole
2. Louise Sewell
3. Virginia Tillett
4. Linda Gunter
5. Timothy Futrelle
6. Wayne Abraham
7. Armin Ancis
8. Wendy Wood
9. Michael Cognac
10. Dan DeHart
11. Harley Caldwell
12. Samuel Spencer
13. Patricia Hawkins
14. Sid Crawford
15. Kara Hollingsworth

References

• General election results from OurCampaigns.com

1. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2009-12-24.
2. Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
4. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
5. Based on Takeaway
6. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
7. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
8. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
9. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
10. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
11. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
12. roadto270
13. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
14. Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
15. "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-18.
16. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
17. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
18. "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved 2009-05-12.
19. "How Black Democrats won North Carolina and the Election: Massive Turnout, Week of November 13–19, 2008". The Wilmington Journal. 2008-11-24.
20. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
21. North Carolina Certificate of Ascertainment, page 1 of 3.. National Archives and Record Administration.