2014 United States Senate election in Alaska
The 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the election of the governor of Alaska, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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| Elections in Alaska |
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Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Begich ran for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014. Begich was renominated and the Republicans picked former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan.[1]
On November 7, Sullivan held an 8,000-vote lead,[2] which on November 11 had shrunk slightly to 7,991 votes.[3] Multiple media outlets called the race for Sullivan on November 12[4][5] and Begich conceded to Sullivan on November 17.[6][7] Republican Sean Parnell simultaneously lost the gubernatorial election to independent candidate Bill Walker, marking just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which U.S. Senate and gubernatorial incumbents from different political parties were simultaneously defeated in the same state.[8]
Background
Democrat Mark Begich won the 2008 election, defeating six-term Republican incumbent Ted Stevens by just under 4,000 votes. A few days before the election, Stevens had been convicted of a felony, but the case against Stevens was later dismissed by the Justice Department after the election, when serious issues of prosecutorial misconduct emerged. In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney easily won Alaska by 13 points, which made Begich a prime target during an election cycle in which Republicans needed a net gain of six seats to retake control of the Senate.
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.
Declared
- Mark Begich, incumbent U.S. Senator[9]
- William Bryk, attorney and perennial candidate from New York[10]
Declared
- Zachary Kile, orthopedic surgeon[11]
- Vic Kohring, former Republican State Representative[11]
Declared
- Mark Fish, former chairman of the Alaska Libertarian Party, former Sarah Palin and Joe Miller staffer and Republican nominee for the state house in 2008[12]
- Scott Kohlhaas, former chairman of the Alaska Libertarian Party and perennial candidate[13]
- Thom Walker, University of Alaska Brooks Range research station operations manager[12][14]
Declined
- Joe Miller, former magistrate judge, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[15][16]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Begich (incumbent) | 58,092 | 83.31% | |
| Libertarian | Thom Walker | 3,167 | 4.54% | |
| Alaskan Independence | Vic Kohring | 2,557 | 3.67% | |
| Democratic | William Bryk | 2,024 | 2.90% | |
| Alaskan Independence | Zachary Kile | 1,869 | 2.68% | |
| Libertarian | Mark Fish | 1,290 | 1.85% | |
| Libertarian | Scott Kohlhaas | 734 | 1.05% | |
| Total votes | 69,733 | 100.00% | ||
Subsequent events
In an upset, the unknown Thom Walker won the Libertarian nomination despite not campaigning and raising no money. Libertarians speculated that he was a Republican "plant" designed to keep a more viable Libertarian from winning the nomination and then taking votes away from the Republican nominee in the general election. They further speculated that Walker was chosen because he shared a surname with Bill Walker (no relation), who was running as an independent candidate in the 2014 gubernatorial election, and that voters may have been confused because Bill Walker did not appear on the primary ballot and thus they may have voted for Thom Walker in error. This confusion could have extended to the general election, with voters picking Thom Walker for the Senate, thinking he was Bill Walker.[18]
Walker withdrew from the race on August 27, saying that "my work location and schedule will have me out of town, out of contact and off the campaign trail for too long." The Libertarian executive board replaced him as the nominee with Mark Fish.[19]
Alaskan Independence nominee Vic Kohring, who had changed his voter registration from Republican to Alaskan Independence just before the filing deadline, withdrew from the race on September 2 and endorsed Dan Sullivan. The Alaskan Independence Party did not name a replacement nominee before the deadline for them to do so had passed.[20]
Republican primary
Declared
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Bumper sticker from Sullivan's campaign
- John Jaramillo, air force veteran[21]
- Joe Miller, former U.S. magistrate judge and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[22]
- Dan Sullivan, former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources and former Alaska Attorney General[23]
- Mead Treadwell, Lieutenant Governor of Alaska[24]
Declined
- Timothy Mark Burgess, judge on the United States District Court for the District of Alaska[27]
- Loren Leman, former lieutenant governor[28]
- Lesil McGuire, state senator[29][30]
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008 [31]
- Sean Parnell, Governor of Alaska (ran for re-election and lost)[32]
- Dan Sullivan, Mayor of Anchorage (ran for Lieutenant Governor and lost)[33]
Former
- Ted Stevens, former U.S. Senator. Stevens had filed to run, and would have been 90 years old on Election Day,[9] but he was killed in a plane crash on August 9, 2010.[34]
Endorsements
Joe Miller
Dan Sullivan
- Individuals
- Organizations
Mead Treadwell
- Individuals
- Jack Coghill, former lieutenant governor and Alaska Constitutional Convention delegate[40]
- Erick Erickson, conservative blogger and editor-in-chief of RedState[41]
- Mark R. Hamilton, former President of the University of Alaska[42]
- Ryan Stassel, snowboarder[43]
Declined to endorse
- Sean Parnell, Governor of Alaska[44]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Jaramillo |
Loren Leman |
Joe Miller |
Sarah Palin |
Sean Parnell |
Dan A. Sullivan |
Dan S. Sullivan |
Kathleen Tonn |
Mead Treadwell |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) | August 4–5, 2014 | 500 | — | — | — | 17% | — | — | — | 42% | — | 25% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 31 – August 3, 2014 | 337 | ± 5.3% | 2% | — | 20% | — | — | — | 35% | — | 29% | 14% |
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) | July 29–31, 2014 | 375 | ± 5.5% | — | — | 16% | — | — | — | 35% | — | 27% | 22% |
| Hellenthal & Assoc. | June 17–28, 2014 | — | — | — | — | 21% | — | — | — | 35% | — | 31% | 13% |
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) | June 16–18, 2014 | 500 | — | — | — | 13% | — | — | — | 36% | — | 27% | 24% |
| Dittman Research (R-A. Sullivan) | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | — | — | 12% | — | — | — | 37% | — | 35% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 8–11, 2014 | 313 | ± 5.5% | 3% | — | 14% | — | — | — | 40% | — | 26% | 17% |
| Moore Information (R-S. Sullivan) | April 27–28, 2014 | — | — | — | — | 12% | — | — | — | 38% | — | 22% | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 30 – February 1, 2014 | 442 | ± 4.7% | 2% | — | 20% | — | — | — | 30% | 4% | 25% | 19% |
| Ivan Moore | December 15–22, 2013 | 335 | — | — | — | 19% | — | — | — | 29% | — | 34% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 25–28, 2013 | 507 | ± 4.4% | — | — | 12% | 36% | — | — | 15% | — | 26% | 11% |
| — | — | 24% | — | — | — | 25% | — | 33% | 19% | ||||
| — | — | 30% | — | — | — | — | — | 53% | 18% | ||||
| Harper Polling | May 6–7, 2013 | 379 | ± 5.0% | — | — | 14% | 32% | — | — | — | — | 30% | 24% |
| — | — | 19% | 52% | — | — | — | — | — | 29% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling | February 4–5, 2013 | 537 | ± 4.2% | — | 16% | 17% | — | 24% | 19% | — | — | 14% | 11% |
| — | 20% | 19% | — | — | 29% | — | — | 23% | 9% | ||||
| Harper Polling | January 29–30, 2013 | 1,157 | ± 2.9% | — | — | 12% | 27% | 32% | — | — | — | 14% | 15% |
Results
Results by state house district
Map legend
- Sullivan—40–50%
- Sullivan—30–40%
- Miller—30–40%
- Miller—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan | 44,740 | 40.05% | |
| Republican | Joe Miller | 35,904 | 32.14% | |
| Republican | Mead Treadwell | 27,807 | 24.90% | |
| Republican | John Jaramillo | 3,246 | 2.91% | |
| Total votes | 111,697 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
Declared
Declined
- Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[48][16]
General election
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Begich (D) | $7,918,887 | $8,487,590 | $721,505 | 0 |
| Dan Sullivan (R) | $6,093,368 | $7,579,632 | $449,506 | $43,000 |
Debates
Begich and Sullivan participated in a televised debate regarding fisheries on August 27, 2014, at the University of Alaska Anchorage.[49] Another televised debate concerning natural resources was held on October 1 in Kodiak, Alaska.[50]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[51] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Lean R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[53] | Tilt R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[54] | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Begich (D) |
Dan Sullivan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 1–2, 2014 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 4%[55] | 5% |
| 46% | 47% | — | 7% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports | October 27–30, 2014 | 887 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | — | 11% |
| Ivan Moore | October 24–26, 2014 | 544 | — | 48% | 42% | 7% | 4% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 561 | ± 9.0% | 44% | 48% | 0% | 9% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | October 18–22, 2014 | 700 | — | 44% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
| Hellenthal & Associates | October 15–21, 2014 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 39% | 7%[56] | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 8–12, 2014 | 700 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 3% | 3% |
| Fox News | October 4–7, 2014 | 706 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 6%[57] | 10% |
| CNN/ORC | October 1–6, 2014 | 704 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 50% | — | 5% |
| 875 RV | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 8% | ||
| Hickman Analytics | September 26–October 2, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 46% | 4%[58] | 9% |
| CBS News/New York Times | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 593 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 48% | 2% | 8% |
| Rassmussen Reports | September 23–24, 2014 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | 5% | 4% |
| Marc Hellenthal | September 12–24, 2014 | 400 | — | 42% | 46% | 7%[59] | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–21, 2014 | 880 | ± 3.3% | 41% | 43% | 5%[60] | 11% |
| 42% | 45% | — | 13% | ||||
| Dittman | September 14–17, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 49% | — | 8% |
| Hays Research/AFL-CIO | September 13–14, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 36% | 23% | |
| Harstad Strategic Research | September 7–10, 2014 | 709 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
| CBS News/New York Times | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 412 | ± 6.0% | 38% | 43% | 6% | 12% |
| Harstad Strategic Research | August 24–27, 2014 | 807 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 40% | 10% | 8% |
| ccAdvertising | August 21–24, 2014 | 4,403 | — | 31% | 42% | — | 27% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 20–21, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 31–August 1, 2014 | 673 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 37% | 7%[61] | 12% |
| 45% | 41% | — | 14% | ||||
| Harstad Strategic Research | July 20–24, 2014 | 808 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 37% | 10% | 9% |
| CBS News/New York Times | July 5–24, 2014 | 452 | ± 5.2% | 46% | 35% | 9% | 10% |
| Basswood Research | June 29–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
| Moore Information (R-Sullivan) | June 16–18, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 8–11, 2014 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 37% | 7%[62] | 14% |
| Moore Information (R-Sullivan) | April 27–28, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | — | 14% |
| Magellan Strategies | April 14, 2014 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 7% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 19–20, 2014 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 30–February 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 37% | 9%[63] | 13% |
| Harper Polling | January 20–22, 2014 | 677 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 47% | — | 12% |
| Harper Polling | September 24–25, 2013 | 731 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 41% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | July 25–28, 2013 | 890 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Sullivan | 135,445 | 47.96% | +1.46% | |
| Democratic | Mark Begich (incumbent) | 129,431 | 45.83% | -1.94% | |
| Libertarian | Mark Fish | 10,512 | 3.72% | +1.94% | |
| Independent | Ted Gianoutsos | 5,636 | 2.00% | +1.56% | |
| Write-in | 1,376 | 0.49% | +0.15% | ||
| Total votes | 282,400 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
See also
- 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
- 2014 United States Senate elections
- 2014 United States elections
- Stubbs (cat), notable write-in candidate and honorary Mayor of Talkeetna, Alaska
References
- State of Alaska Division of Elections. "2014 Election Dates and Hours". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Archived from the original on December 30, 2012. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
- "After noisy U.S. Senate campaign, both candidates go quiet with votes still uncounted". Alaska Dispatch News. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
- "Highs, lows for campaigns as votes are tallied in Alaska election". Alaska Dispatch News. November 11, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
- "Republican Dan Sullivan Beats Sen. Mark Begich to Win Alaska Race". NBC News. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
- "Another Senate Loss for Democrats". The Atlantic. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
- "Republicans Take the Senate – Debates Continue on Health Care and Immigration Reform – The Bi-College News". Archived from the original on November 29, 2014.
- Joseph, Cameron. Begich concedes Alaska Senate race, The Hill, November 17, 2014.
- Ostermeier, Eric (November 19, 2014). "Mark Begich and Sean Parnell Join Small Group in Defeat". Smart Politics.
- "Stevens files candidacy for 2014 election". ADN.com. April 8, 2009. Archived from the original on October 4, 2012. Retrieved November 5, 2012.
- Zaz Hollander (November 21, 2013). "Brooklyn lawyer takes on Begich - without leaving home". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved November 22, 2013.
- Scott Rhode (June 3, 2014). "Ten Observations About 2014 Candidates". KENI. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
- Amanda Coyne (May 14, 2014). "Alaska Libertarian Mark Fish runs for U.S. Senate seat". Amanda Coyne. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
- "U.S. Senate — Scott Kohlhaas". NewsMiner.com. August 18, 2014. Retrieved August 22, 2014.
- Alexandra Gutierrez (August 22, 2014). "Walker wins primary … for Libertarian Senate nomination". KTOO. Retrieved August 22, 2014.
- Joseph, Cameron (June 26, 2014). "Sen. Begich faces tough reelection challenge in GOP-friendly Alaska". Roll Call. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
- Joseph, Cameron (August 15, 2014). "Joe Miller says he'll back GOP nominee against Begich in Alaska". The Hill. Retrieved August 15, 2014.
- "2014 Primary Elections August 19, 2014 Official Results". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
- "Walker -- no, the other Walker -- wins Libertarian US Senate nomination". Alaska Dispatch New. August 22, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- "Alaska Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate withdraws". Alaska Dispatch New. August 27, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- "Independence party candidate exits US Senate race". NewsMiner.com. September 3, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- Anderson, Ben (May 28, 2013). "Joe Miller takes another step toward 2014 US Senate run". Alaska Dispatch. Retrieved July 9, 2013.
- Burns, Alexander (May 28, 2013). "Joe Miller files papers for Senate". Politico. Retrieved May 29, 2013.
- Hohmann, James (September 12, 2013). "Alaska Senate race 2014: Dan Sullivan to run". Politico. Retrieved September 12, 2013.
- Trygstad, Kyle (June 18, 2013). "Republican Announces Begich Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved June 18, 2013.
- "Begala scheduled to headline fundraiser for Democrat Begich in Alaska". Newsminer. July 16, 2013. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
- Bailey, Chris (February 1, 2014). "Tonn Out of Senate Primary Race". Alaska Commons. Retrieved April 6, 2014.
- Mauer, Rich (February 23, 2013). "Miller Mulls a Begich Challenge". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved February 27, 2013.
- Trygstad, Kyle (November 13, 2012). "Alaska: Republicans Lining Up to Take on Mark Begich". Roll Call. Retrieved February 27, 2013.
- Hopkins, Kyle (June 5, 2013). "McGuire files to run for lieutenant governor". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on June 9, 2013. Retrieved June 10, 2013.
- "McGuire withdraws from lieutenant governor race just before filing deadline". Anchorage Daily News. June 2, 2014. Archived from the original on June 6, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
- Sarah Palin Ups Her 2014 Game, Endorses In Competitive GOP Senate Primary
- Forgey, Pat (May 4, 2013). "Neither Democrats nor Republicans shocked Parnell is running again". Alaska Dispatch. Retrieved May 25, 2013.
- Gonzales, Nathan L. (May 23, 2013). "Anchorage Mayor Not Running in Alaska Senate Race". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2013.
- Yardley, William; Robbins, Liz (August 10, 2010). "Former Senator Ted Stevens Killed in Plane Crash". The New York Times.
- "Combat Veterans for Congress PAC Endorses Joe Miller for U.S. Senate". Joe Miller for Senate. December 23, 2013. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
- "GOA Political Victory Fund Endorses Miller for Senate". Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund. Archived from the original on March 2, 2014. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
- "Sarah Palin endorses Joe Miller, again". August 15, 2014. Archived from the original on August 19, 2014.
- US Senate hopeful Sullivan out with new ad, casts self as fighter Alaska needs, therepublic.com; accessed November 6, 2014.
- Caitlin Huey-Burns (March 12, 2014). "Club for Growth Backs Sullivan in Alaska Race". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved March 13, 2014.
- Buxton, Matt (September 13, 2013). "Treadwell campaigns in Fairbanks for U.S. Senate seat". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
- Erick Erickson (June 18, 2014). "Mead Treadwell for Alaska". RedState. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
- Treadwell, Mead (September 13, 2013). "I am honored and humbled to have the support of Mark Hamilton". Twitter. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
- Trygstad, Kyle (February 20, 2014). "Olympic Snowboarder Makes Senate Endorsement". Roll Call. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
- Hohmann, James (November 21, 2013). "Parnell staying out of Alaska Sen. race". Politico. Retrieved February 24, 2014.
- "November 4, 2014 General Election Candidate List". Alaska Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 20, 2014. Retrieved August 22, 2014.
- Andrew Wellner (June 6, 2014). "Crowded field files for state elections". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman. Retrieved August 22, 2014.
- Campbell, Colin (November 4, 2014). "A Cat Mayor Just 'Announced' His Campaign For Senate In Alaska". Business Insider. Archived from the original on August 5, 2017. Retrieved July 24, 2017.
- Forrest A. Nabors (April 22, 2014). "She Can See This Disaster From Her House". Politico. Retrieved April 24, 2014.
- Herz, Nathaniel (October 1, 2014). "Tough topic, tough audience for Sullivan in debate with Begich on fisheries issues in Kodiak". Alaska Dispatch News.
- Herz, Nathaniel (October 23, 2014). "Begich, Sullivan spar over natural resources in US Senate debate". Alaska Dispatch News.
- "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
- "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
- "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
- "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
- Mark Fish (L) 2%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2%
- Mark Fish (L) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 4%
- Mark Fish (L) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, Other 2%
- Mark Fish (L) 4%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%
- Mark Fish (L)
- Mark Fish (L) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 2%
- Mark Fish (L) 4%, Vic Kohring (AI) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0%, Sidney Hill (I) 0%
- Zachary Kile 5%, Ted Gianoutsos 1%, Sidney Hill 1%
- Zachary Kile 6%, Ted Gianoutsos 1%, Sidney Hill 2%
- Mark Fish (L) 6%, Vic Kohring (AI) 4%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, Sidney Hill (I) 1%
- Ted Gianoutsos 0%, Sidney Hill 2%
- Ted Gianoutsos 1%, Sidney Hill 2%
- Mark Fish (L) 5%, Vic Kohring (AI) 3%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 0%, Sidney Hill (I) 0%
- "2014 General Election November 4, 2014 Official Results" (PDF). elections.alaska.gov. November 11, 2014. Retrieved November 27, 2014.
External links
- 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska at Curlie
- U.S. Senate elections in Alaska, 2014 at Ballotpedia
- Alaska Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Campaign websites
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