2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re–election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate.[2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

November 3, 2020

Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross Party Republican Independent[lower-alpha 1] Popular vote 191,112 146,068 Percentage 53.9% 41.2%

State house district results Sullivan:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Gross:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election Dan Sullivan Republican Elected U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan Republican

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020.[3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls.[4] In the end, Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary

Nominee

• Dan Sullivan, incumbent U.S. Senator[5]

Withdrawn

• Adam Master Newman[6][7]

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan

U.S. federal officials

• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[8]

Individuals

• Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[9]

Primary results

Republican primary results[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dan Sullivan (incumbent)	65,257	100.00%
Total votes			65,257	100.00%

Libertarian-Democratic-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.[11]

Nominee

• Al Gross (Independent), orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, and son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross[1]

Eliminated in primary

• Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), Democratic candidate in the 2016 election for the U.S. Senate, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former Mayor of Seward (1999–2003) and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development[7]
• Chris Cumings (Independent), Democratic candidate in the 2018 election for Alaska's at-large congressional district and ex-bank employee[12][7]

Disqualified from the ballot

• Larry N. Barnes (Independent)[7][lower-alpha 2]

Withdrawn

• David Darden (Independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election[7]

Nominee

• John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist[13]

Endorsements

Al Gross

Local officials

• Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[14]

Individuals

• Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–17), 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate[15]

Organizations

• 314 Action[16]
• Alaska Center[17]
• Alaska Democratic Party[18]
• DSCC[19]
• End Citizens United[20]
• Humanity Forward[15]
• J Street PAC[21]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America[22]
• Orthopaedic PAC[23]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
• The Lincoln Project[25]

Union

• Communications Workers of America[26]

Primary results

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Independent	Al Gross	50,047	79.87%
	Democratic	Edgar Blatchford	5,463	8.72%
	Alaskan Independence	John Howe	4,165	6.65%
	Independent	Christopher Cumings	2,989	4.77%
Total votes			62,664	100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee

• Jed Whittaker, Green nominee in the 1996 United States Senate election in Alaska and salvage company owner (write-in candidate)[27][28]

Declared

• Sidney "Sid" Hill, Independent write-in candidate for the 2018 election in Alaska's at-large congressional district, Independent write-in candidate for the 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska and LaRouchite (write-in candidate)[27][28][29]
• Karen Nanouk (write-in candidate)[28]

Withdrawn

• David Matheny, wildfire technician[30][31]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[32]	Lean R	October 13, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[33]	Lean R	October 7, 2020
Economist[34]	Lean R	October 6, 2020
Daily Kos[35]	Likely R	October 6, 2020
DDHQ[36]	Lean R	October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[37]	Likely R	October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[38]	Lean R	October 1, 2020
RCP[39]	Likely R	September 27, 2020
Niskanen[40]	Tossup	September 15, 2020
Politico[41]	Lean R	September 9, 2020

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan (R)

U.S. Federal Officials

• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[8]

Organizations

• Calista Corporation[42]
• Bering Straits Native Corporation[43]
• United States Chamber of Commerce[44]

Individuals

• Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[45]

Labor Unions

• International Union of Operating Engineers[46]

Newspapers

• Anchorage Daily News[47]

Al Gross (I)

U.S. Senators

• Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017–present), Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in the 2020 election[48]
• Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator from New York (1999–present), Senate Minority Leader (2017–present), Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 9th congressional district (1993–1999), New York's 10th congressional district (1983–1993), New York's 16th congressional district (1981–1983)[49]

State Executives

• Tony Knowles, Governor of Alaska (1994–2002), Mayor of Anchorage (1981–1987)[50]

Local Officials

• Pete Buttigieg, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)[14]

Individuals

• Jimmy Dore, radio host
• Kyle Kulinski, radio host
• Andrew Yang, Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship (2015–17), 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate[15]

Organizations

• 314 Action[16]
• Alaska Center[17]
• Alaska Democratic Party[18]
• Demand Universal Healthcare[51]
• Democratic Majority for Israel[52]
• DSCC[19]
• End Citizens United[20]
• J Street PAC[21]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America[22]
• Humanity Forward[15]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[53]
• Orthopaedic PAC[23]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
• The Lincoln Project[25]

Unions

• Communications Workers of America[26]
• National Education Association of Alaska[54]

Polls

Graphical summary

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Dan Sullivan (R)	Al Gross (I)	John Howe (AI)	Other	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	October 26–28, 2020	770 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	45%	–	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1]	October 19–20, 2020	800 (V)	± 3.5%	44%	41%	5%	–	10%
Change Research (I)[upper-alpha 2]	October 16–19, 2020	1,076 (LV)	± 4%	47%	44%	3%	–	5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	October 9–14, 2020	423 (LV)	± 5.7%	45%	37%	10%	2%[lower-alpha 4]	7%[lower-alpha 5]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[upper-alpha 2]	October 10–13, 2020	606 (LV)	± 4%	46%	47%	–	–	–
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[upper-alpha 2]	October 2–6, 2020	600 (LV)	–	46%	46%	–	–	–
Patinkin Research Strategies	September 30 – October 4, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	46%	47%	–	2%[lower-alpha 6]	5%
Alaska Survey Research	September 26 – October 4, 2020	696 (LV)	–	48%	44%	–	–	8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I)[upper-alpha 3]	September 20–23, 2020	602 (LV)	± 4%	46%	45%	–	–	–
Public Policy Polling (D)	August 27–28, 2020	638 (V)	± 3.9%	43%	43%	–	–	14%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 4]	July 7–8, 2020	1,081 (V)	± 3.0%	39%	34%	–	–	27%
Alaska Survey Research	June 23 – July 7, 2020	663 (LV)	± 3.8%	53%	40%	–	–	7%

Hypothetical polling

with Forrest Dunbar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Dan Sullivan (R) Forrest Dunbar (D) Undecided Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 500 (LV) – 39% 39% 22% with Forrest Dunbar as an independent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Dan Sullivan (R) Forrest Dunbar (I) Undecided Patinkin Research Strategies May 28 – June 4, 2019 500 (LV) – 42% 40% 19%

Results

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2020[55]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Dan Sullivan (incumbent)	191,112	53.90%	+5.94%
	Independent	Al Gross[lower-alpha 1]	146,068	41.19%	-4.64%
	Alaskan Independence	John Howe	16,806	4.74%	N/A
	Write-in		601	0.17%	-0.32%
Total votes			354,587	100.0%
	Republican hold

Notes

1. Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party.[1]
2. Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
5. Includes "Refused"
6. "Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
2. Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
3. Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
4. Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

1. "Gross announces candidacy for Alaska US Senate seat". Associated Press. June 2, 2019.
2. Taylor, Jessica (June 12, 2020). "Alaska Senate Moves to Likely Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 29, 2020.
3. "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov.
4. https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1317942531120898048?s=20
5. "SULLIVAN, DAN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
6. McCue, Dan (May 1, 2020). "Center for Politics Adds Alaska to Senate Battleground Map". TheWell News. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
7. "Alaska Division of Elections". www.elections.alaska.gov. June 5, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
8. "President Trump endorses Sullivan re-election as US senator for Alaska". KTUU. December 18, 2019. Retrieved December 30, 2019.
9. "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
10. "Alaska Secretary of State's office: Election Summary Report - Official Results" (PDF).
11. Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News.
12. "Alaska - Senate". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
13. "John Wayne Howe, Alaskan Independence Party, runs for U.S. Senate". KTVF News. July 6, 2020.
14. "AK-Sen: Pete Buttigieg Jumps In To Help Dr. Al Gross (I) Take Away Moscow Mitch's Majority". Daily Kos.
15. "Humanity Forward Candidate Endorsements". Humanity Forward.
16. "Endorsed Candidates — 314actionfund". 314 Action. Retrieved November 27, 2019.
17. "Endorsed Candidates- 2019 Anchorage Municipal Elections".
18. Quinn, Steve (October 11, 2019). "Alaska Democratic Party backs Gross for US Senate". KTVA. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
19. "DSCC Endorses Dr. Al Gross in Alaska Senate Race". DSCC. December 3, 2019.
20. Muller, Tiffany (January 21, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses 39 Candidates 10 Years After Citizens United Decision". End Citizens United.
21. J Street Endorsements https://donate.jstreetpac.org/candidate/al-gross-ak-sen/. Retrieved August 6, 2020. Missing or empty |title= (help)
22. "2020 Endorsements".
23. "AAOS Now October 2019: OrthoPAC Endorses AAOS Member Al Gross, MD, for U.S. Senate". www.aaos.org.
24. "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
25. "Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project". Al Gross For The Great Land | The Lincoln Project.
26. "Communications Workers of America Endorses Al Gross (AK) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
27. "ALASKA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
28. "November 3, 2020 General Election Candidate List". www.elections.alaska.gov. October 29, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
29. Maguire, Sean (August 14, 2020). "Meet Alaska's candidates for the U.S. Senate ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries". KTUU. Retrieved August 21, 2020.
30. Downing, Suzanne (May 11, 2019). "Sen. Sullivan has his first challenger: a Bernie supporter". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
31. "IDENTIFICATION NUMBER: C00705293" (PDF). FEC. May 29, 2019. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
32. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
33. Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
34. "Why the Democrats are our narrow favourites to win the Senate". The Economist. September 23, 2020. Retrieved September 24, 2020.
35. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
36. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
37. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
38. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
39. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
40. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
41. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
42. "PAEC Issues First Endorsements in 2020 General Election". Calista Corporation.
43. "BSNC Endorses Dan Sullivan for United States Senate".
44. "U.S. Chamber Endorses Dan Sullivan for U.S. Senate Representing Alaska". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. July 20, 2020.
45. "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/20/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
46. "PRESS RELEASE: International Union of Operating Engineers Endorses Senator Dan Sullivan for Re-election - Dan Sullivan for Alaska". dansullivanforalaska.com.
47. Anchorage Daily News editorial board (October 31, 2020). "Sen. Dan Sullivan is best poised to represent Alaska's interests". Anchorage Daily News.
48. Buxton, Matt (August 12, 2020). "Before joining Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris endorsed Al Gross for U.S. Senate". The Midnight Sun.
49. https://dralgrosssenate.com
50. Knowles, Tony (October 19, 2020). "Dr. Al Gross: Independent for U.S. Senator". Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman.
51. https://duh4all.org/us-house-senate-candidates/us-congress-house-senate.html
52. "Our Endorsements". DMFI PAC.
53. "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
54. "PACE Recommendations". NEA-Alaska.
55. "2020 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report - Official Results" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved December 2, 2020.

Further reading

• Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Alaska", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Alaska: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Alaska". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Alaska at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Al Gross (I) for Senate
• John Howe (AI) for Senate
• Dan Sullivan (R) for Senate