2020 United States presidential election in Alaska

The 2020 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Alaska voters chose three electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, and Alliance Party nominees were also on the ballot, as was an Independent candidate. Write-in candidates were required to file a declaration of intent with the Alaska Division of Elections at least five days before the election, and their results were not individually counted.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Alaska
November 3, 2020
Turnout60.67%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 189,951 153,778
Percentage 52.83% 42.77%
Results by state House district
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Alaska
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries and caucuses
Democratic
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
State elections
State Senate elections
State House Elections
Ballot measures
Anchorage
Mayoral elections
Propositions

Prior to the election, 13 of 14 news organizations making predictions considered this a state Trump would win, or otherwise a red state. Since it was admitted into the Union in 1960, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every single election except 1964[4] in Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide, when he carried it with 65.91% of the vote.[5] However, polling and voting trends indicated a possibly competitive race;[6] on the day of the election, FiveThirtyEight had Trump leading by an average of 7.7%[7] and 270toWin had him up by 5.6%.[8] 58% of voters are registered as unaffiliated, undeclared, or Independent, the highest proportion of any state.[9] The Senate and House of Representatives races down the ballot were also surprisingly competitive.[10]

Despite not necessarily being a swing state, Alaska was also one of the last states to be called; the state did not start counting absentee ballots or early votes that were cast after October 29 until November 10.[11] Mail-in votes only had to be received by November 13 for them to be counted, and counting had to be completed by November 18.[12] As a consequence, Alaska was called for Trump on November 11.[13] He won the state by 10.06%, the closest margin in the state since 1992, when Republican George H. W. Bush beat Democrat Bill Clinton by 9.17%. Biden's performance was the highest percentage of the vote for a Democrat in the state since 1964. It was also the first time a non-incumbent Democrat won over 40% of the vote in the state since 1968.[14]

Biden narrowly won Anchorage, the state's largest city, making him the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon B. Johnson, which was in part attributable to Biden's outperformance in comparison to local Democrats[15] and nationwide backlash against Trump moreso than down-ballot Republicans.[16] Biden also held traditionally Democratic strongholds in the state in The Bush; the Far North, consisting of the North Slope Borough, is the home of the Inuit tribe while the Southwest is dominated by Native American fishing villages. In 2019, Native Americans made up an estimated 15.6% of the state's population.[17] The Southeast, which encompasses Juneau and Sitka, was also carried by Biden. However, his victories in traditionally Democratic regions and in closely divided Anchorage were offset largely by Trump's landslide wins in the Kenai Peninsula and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough,[15] where he carried upwards of 70% of the vote in some regions. He also dominated the Interior and the city of Fairbanks, enough to award the state's three electoral votes to Trump.[18] Alaska ultimately weighed in as 14.51 percentage points more Republican than the national average in 2020.

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary
Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 21, 2019, the Alaska Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[19] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[20][21] Per The Green Papers, the party also argued that "When an incumbent Republican President is seeking the Republican nomination for President, a PPP [presidential preference poll] need not be conducted" and that "the incumbent Republican President will be the only "Qualified Presidential Candidate" in this case."[22]

Of the 29 total delegates, 3 is allocated to the at-large congressional district, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 are allocated to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 13 bonus delegates were allocated.

The state party will still formally conduct the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district conventions were held on the four consecutive Saturdays from February 8 to 29 to select delegates to the Alaska State Republican Convention. At the Alaska State Republican Convention, which took place from April 2 to April 4, 2020, the state party formally binded all 29 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[22]

The 26 pledged delegates Alaska sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Alaska Republican Party.

Democratic primary
Further information: 2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary

The Alaska Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 23, due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Alaska Democratic Party canceled in-person voting, but extended mail-in voting to April 10.[23]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary final results[24]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[25]
Joe Biden 10,834 55.31 8
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 8,755 44.69 7
Total 19,589 100% 15

Libertarian nominee

No contest was held for the Libertarian Party's nomination in the state of Alaska. At the 2020 Libertarian National Convention, the Alaskan delegates cast their votes for Georgia politician John Monds, but on the third and fourth ballots voted for Jo Jorgensen, psychology senior lecturer at Clemson University. Jorgensen would become the party's nominee after being elected on the fourth ballot, her running mate being entrepreneur and podcaster Spike Cohen.[26]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Likely R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[28] Lean R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] Likely R November 3, 2020
Politico[30] Lean R November 3, 2020
RCP[31] Likely R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[32] Tossup November 3, 2020
CNN[33] Solid R November 3, 2020
The Economist[34] Likely R November 3, 2020
CBS News[35][lower-alpha 1] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[36] Likely R November 3, 2020
ABC News[37] Lean R November 3, 2020
NPR[38][lower-alpha 2] Lean R November 3, 2020
NBC News[39] Likely R November 3, 2020
538[40] Likely R November 3, 2020

Polling
Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
270 to Win September 26 – October 28, 2020 November 1, 2020 43.3% 49.3% 7.4% Trump +6.0
FiveThirtyEight until October 31, 2020 November 1, 2020 43.4% 51.2% 5.4% Trump +7.8
Average 43.4% 50.3% 6.3% Trump +6.9
Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 634 (LV) ± 5% 54%[lower-alpha 5] 45% – – –
Gravis Marketing Oct 26–28, 2020 770 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 43% – – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,147 (LV) – 54% 44% – – –
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 1] Oct 19–20, 2020 800 (V) ± 3.5% 50% 45% - – 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 9–14, 2020 423 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 39% 8% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 6%[lower-alpha 7]
Patinkin Research Strategies Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 49% 46% – 3%[lower-alpha 8] 2%
Alaska Survey Research Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020 696 (LV) – 50% 46% - - 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 563 (LV) – 53% 45% - - 2%
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska[upper-alpha 2] Sep 20–23, 2020 602 (LV) ± 4% 47% 46% - - –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 472 (LV) – 57% 42% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 412 (LV) – 55% 43% - - 2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] Jul 23–24, 2020 885 (V) – 50% 44% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling[lower-alpha 9] Jul 7–8, 2020 1,081 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - 6%
Alaska Survey Research Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 48% - - 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 161 (LV) – 52% 46% - - 2%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 40% - - 15%
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 31% 24%
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 48% 30% 23%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 38% 17%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019 321 (LV) ± 5.5% 48% 32% 20%

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, of the candidates who were on the ballot, Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $1,487,277.13,[41] Joe Biden raised $1,321,242.60,[42] and Jo Jorgensen raised $7,420.85[43] from Alaska-based contributors. Don Blankenship,[44] Brock Pierce,[45] and Rocky De La Fuente,[46] all of which were on the ballot, did not raise any money from the state.

Candidate ballot access

In addition, write-in candidates were required to file a Declaration of Intent with the Alaska Division of Elections at least five days before the election. They were also obligated to file a financial disclosure statement. Write-in votes were not counted individually.[3][47] The following candidates were given write-in access:[48]

  • Dennis Andrew Ball / Richard A. Sanders, American Party of America – American National Committee
  • Barbara Ruth Bellar / Kendra Bryant, Republican
  • President R19 Boddie / Eric C. Stoneham, Independent
  • David C. Byrne / Tony N. Reed, C.C.U.S.A.
  • Brian T. Carroll / Amar Patel, American Solidarity
  • Todd Cella / Timothy Bryan "Tim" Cella, Independent
  • Mark Robert Charles / Adrian D. Wallace, Independent
  • Ryan Stephen Ehrenreich / Veronica Ehrenreich, Independent
  • Howard "Howie" Gresham Hawkins / Angela Nicola Walker, Socialist Party USA
  • Thomas "Tom" Hoefling / Andy Prior, Independent
  • Shawn W. Howard / Alyssa C. Howard, Independent
  • Dario David Hunter / Dawn Neptune Adams, Progressive
  • Joseph W. "Joe" McHugh / Elizabeth "Liz" Storm, Independent
  • Albert L. Raley / Darlene Raley, Republican
  • Deborah Ann "Debbie" Rouse / Sheila Maria Cannon, Independent
  • Jade Simmons / Claudeliah J. "CJ" Roze, Independent
  • Mary Ruth Caro Simmons / Sherrie Dow, Independent
  • Ajay Sood / Richard Mende, Independent
  • Sheila "Samm" Tittle / John Wagner, Independent
  • Kasey J. Wells / Rachel M. Wells, Independent
  • Kanye West / Michelle Tidball, Independent
  • Demetra Jefferson Wysinger / Cedric D. Jefferson, WXYZ New Day

Electoral slates

Technically the voters of Alaska cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Alaska is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Alaska, a faithless elector's vote is counted and not penalized.[49][50]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 3 pledged electors cast their votes for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021 per the Electoral Count Act.

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[51]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party		 Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party		 Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party		 Jesse Ventura and Cynthia McKinney
Green Party		 Don Blankenship and William Mohr
Constitution Party		 Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard
Independent		 Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson
Alliance
John Binkley
Judy Eledge
Randy Ruedrich		 Paul Kelly
Frances Degnan
Cindy Spanyers		 none listed Robert Shields
Lenin Lau
Josh Hadley		 Samuel Smith
Rebecca Anderson
William Topel		 Arenz Thigpen Jr.
Roderick Butler
John Ray		 Ross Johnston
Marie Motschman
Anne Begle-Shedlock

Delay in results

As expected, there was a nationwide delay in reporting election results, due to the extreme influx of absentee and mail-in ballots as a public health measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic,[52] which infected at least 17,448 Alaskans and killed 84 by Election Day.[53][54] Each state imposed its own election procedures, such as expanding absentee voting and increased sanitization of polling station supplies, causing varying delays depending on the state. In Alaska, these delays were especially severe, though they did not receive much attention due to the state's comparatively minor and uncompetitive electoral presence as opposed to many other slower-counting states. Alaska mailed absentee ballot applications to every voter aged 65 and over.[52][55] Mail-in ballots only needed to be postmarked by Election Day and received by November 13 (November 18 for overseas voters), further delaying the count.[56] Only early votes cast before October 29 and Election Day votes would be released on Election Night and the state could not even begin the counting of absentee ballots nor the remaining early votes until November 10.[55] Counting was expected to be complete by November 18. By November 4, the state still had at least 122,233 absentee ballots to count.[57][58] Alaska and New York are the only two states to begin counting absentee ballots after Election Day.[59] Gail Felunumiai, Alaska's Director of Elections, attributed the delay to the need to verify that voters who voted by mail and also at their polling places did not have their ballots counted twice.[60]

Prior to the counting of absentee ballots, Trump led with 61.79% of the vote, resembling a "red mirage" effect seen in the rest of the country where Republicans initially overperformed due to the delayed counting of absentee and early votes, which leaned heavily Democratic[52][61] – in Alaska specifically, Joe Biden won 54.78% of absentee ballots to Trump's 42.06%, narrowing up the margin as more votes were counted.[62] The delay in counting and the consequential red mirage effect also left many state legislative races undecided for weeks, with seven incumbent Democratic state legislators trailing in their re-election bids before the counting of absentee votes.[63] The extreme rural nature of the state only worsened the delay: with many local communities being accessible only by boat or plane, seven communities had to vote entirely by absentee ballots in the primary due to a last-minute shortage of election workers.[60] The Associated Press called the race for President Trump on November 11 at 12:16 PM EST (8:16 AM AKST),[13][64] 4 days after President Biden won the national election.

Results
2020 United States presidential election in Alaska[51][65]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		189,951 52.83% +1.55%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 153,778 42.77% +6.23%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 8,897 2.47% −3.41%
Green Jesse Ventura[lower-alpha 11]
Cynthia McKinney		 2,673 0.74% −1.06%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr		 1,127 0.31% −0.90%
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard		 825 0.23% N/A
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson		 318 0.09% N/A
Write-in 1,961 0.55% N/A
Total votes 359,530 100% +6.67%

By State House district

Unlike every other U.S. state, Alaska is not divided into counties or parishes. Rather, it is administratively divided into 20 boroughs: 19 organized and 1 unorganized, which act as county-equivalents.[4] The Unorganized Borough lacks a borough government structure and itself is divided into eleven census areas.[66] Contrary to election results in most states, official results by borough are not available – rather, they are estimates based on precinct-level data.[67] However, the Alaska Division of Elections does release official results by State House district, which are listed in the table below. Trump won 21 districts to Biden's 19. Biden also won overseas ballots. The 5th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 28th, and 35th districts swung from voting for Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020.[68][69]

State House District[70] Donald Trump
Republican		 Joe Biden
Democratic		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Jesse Ventura
Green		 Don Blankenship
Constitution		 Brock Pierce
Independent		 Rocky De La Fuente
Alliance		 Write-in Margin Total votes Registered voters Voter turnout
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
1 3,511 47.43% 3,477 46.97% 216 2.92% 50 0.68% 34 0.46% 24 0.32% 2 0.03% 89 1.20% 34 0.46% 7,403 13,926 53.16%
2 3,674 59.54% 2,104 34.09% 287 4.65% 30 0.49% 18 0.29% 14 0.23% 9 0.15% 35 0.57% 1,570 25.45% 6,171 11,997 51.44%
3 6,076 71.89% 1,903 22.52% 316 3.74% 42 0.50% 27 0.32% 13 0.15% 8 0.09% 67 0.79% 4,173 49.37% 8,452 14,878 56.81%
4 4,690 44.10% 5,345 50.25% 323 3.04% 93 0.87% 27 0.25% 29 0.27% 4 0.04% 125 1.18% -655 -6.15% 10,636 15,274 69.63%
5 4,077 46.65% 4,204 48.11% 259 2.96% 68 0.78% 21 0.24% 17 0.19% 8 0.09% 85 0.97% -127 -1.46% 8,739 13,958 62.61%
6 5,770 60.36% 3,272 34.23% 266 2.78% 83 0.87% 33 0.35% 31 0.32% 5 0.05% 99 1.04% 2,498 26.13% 9,559 15,444 61.89%
7 7,027 72.35% 2,215 22.80% 272 2.80% 54 0.56% 36 0.37% 13 0.13% 5 0.05% 91 0.94% 4,812 49.55% 9,713 16,692 58.19%
8 7,618 76.28% 1,953 19.56% 241 2.41% 48 0.48% 28 0.28% 18 0.18% 6 0.06% 75 0.75% 5,665 56.72% 9,987 17,531 56.97%
9 7,787 70.17% 2,769 24.95% 301 2.71% 77 0.69% 39 0.35% 16 0.14% 4 0.04% 105 0.95% 5,018 45.22% 11,098 16,917 65.60%
10 8,081 71.64% 2,727 24.18% 286 2.54% 64 0.57% 22 0.20% 19 0.17% 6 0.05% 75 0.66% 5,354 47.46% 11,280 17,577 64.17%
11 7,096 66.14% 3,130 29.17% 269 2.51% 88 0.82% 22 0.21% 17 0.16% 6 0.06% 101 0.94% 3,966 36.97% 10,729 16,491 65.06%
12 7,893 69.66% 2,957 26.10% 288 2.54% 54 0.48% 28 0.25% 15 0.13% 3 0.03% 92 0.81% 4,936 43.56% 11,330 16,546 68.48%
13 4,652 59.69% 2,666 34.21% 308 3.95% 40 0.51% 16 0.21% 25 0.32% 6 0.08% 80 1.03% 1,986 25.48% 7,793 13,888 56.11%
14 6,714 57.94% 4,261 36.77% 356 3.07% 50 0.43% 46 0.40% 10 0.09% 6 0.05% 145 1.25% 2,453 21.17% 11,588 16,726 69.28%
15 2,671 47.48% 2,622 46.61% 197 3.50% 36 0.64% 10 0.18% 13 0.23% 10 0.18% 67 1.19% 49 0.87% 5,626 12,607 44.63%
16 3,516 42.84% 4,274 52.08% 210 2.56% 64 0.78% 27 0.33% 15 0.18% 12 0.15% 89 1.08% -758 -9.24% 8,207 15,067 54.47%
17 2,810 38.42% 4,136 56.56% 184 2.52% 64 0.88% 18 0.25% 18 0.25% 9 0.12% 74 1.01% -1,326 -18.14% 7,313 13,307 54.96%
18 2,760 35.33% 4,681 59.92% 157 2.01% 79 1.01% 24 0.31% 15 0.19% 4 0.05% 92 1.18% -1,921 -24.59% 7,812 14,183 55.08%
19 1,975 36.69% 3,118 57.92% 110 2.04% 52 0.97% 22 0.41% 11 0.20% 13 0.24% 82 1.52% -1,143 -21.23% 5,383 12,328 43.66%
20 2,383 31.35% 4,881 64.21% 153 2.01% 53 0.70% 8 0.11% 15 0.20% 4 0.05% 105 1.38% -2,498 -32.86% 7,602 14,086 53.97%
21 3,690 38.71% 5,414 56.79% 203 2.13% 70 0.73% 29 0.30% 19 0.20% 4 0.04% 104 1.09% -1,724 -18.08% 9,533 14,633 65.15%
22 4,684 48.55% 4,553 47.20% 200 2.07% 46 0.48% 16 0.17% 18 0.19% 3 0.03% 127 1.32% 131 1.35% 9,647 15,077 63.98%
23 3,655 46.64% 3,810 48.62% 170 2.17% 53 0.68% 22 0.28% 16 0.20% 13 0.17% 98 1.25% -155 -1.98% 7,837 14,325 54.71%
24 5,378 50.98% 4,736 44.89% 222 2.10% 46 0.44% 15 0.14% 24 0.23% 7 0.07% 122 1.16% 642 6.09% 10,550 15,078 69.97%
25 4,407 46.88% 4,600 48.94% 201 2.14% 67 0.71% 21 0.22% 14 0.15% 15 0.16% 75 0.80% -193 -2.06% 9,400 15,175 61.94%
26 5,243 51.26% 4,558 44.56% 207 2.02% 55 0.54% 23 0.22% 23 0.22% 2 0.02% 118 1.15% 685 6.70% 10,229 15,591 65.61%
27 4,324 45.13% 4,844 50.55% 228 2.38% 59 0.62% 21 0.22% 24 0.25% 6 0.06% 76 0.79% -520 -5.42% 9,582 15,390 62.26%
28 6,162 47.76% 6,264 48.55% 219 1.70% 69 0.53% 16 0.12% 16 0.12% 3 0.02% 153 1.19% -102 -0.79% 12,902 16,743 77.06%
29 7,464 68.96% 2,985 27.58% 190 1.76% 69 0.64% 26 0.24% 10 0.09% 3 0.03% 76 0.70% 4,479 41.38% 10,823 16,296 66.42%
30 7,180 69.97% 2,638 25.71% 270 2.63% 42 0.41% 26 0.25% 17 0.17% 3 0.03% 86 0.84% 4,542 44.26% 10,262 16,782 61.15%
31 6,971 55.56% 5,037 40.15% 250 1.99% 100 0.80% 27 0.22% 18 0.14% 7 0.06% 136 1.08% 1,934 15.41% 12,546 18,132 69.19%
32 4,440 52.89% 3,506 41.76% 238 2.84% 105 1.25% 21 0.25% 21 0.25% 4 0.05% 60 0.71% 934 11.13% 8,395 13,986 60.02%
33 3,059 27.65% 7,535 68.11% 197 1.78% 103 0.93% 27 0.24% 25 0.23% 9 0.08% 108 0.98% -4,476 -40.46% 11,063 16,306 67.85%
34 4,543 41.85% 5,763 53.09% 279 2.57% 68 0.63% 36 0.33% 34 0.31% 6 0.06% 127 1.17% -1,220 -11.24% 10,856 16,034 67.71%
35 4,769 46.71% 5,011 49.08% 170 1.67% 95 0.93% 35 0.34% 16 0.16% 6 0.06% 107 1.05% -242 -2.37% 10,209 15,766 64.75%
36 5,114 54.47% 3,796 40.43% 245 2.61% 79 0.84% 30 0.32% 20 0.21% 8 0.09% 97 1.03% 1,318 14.04% 9,389 15,375 61.07%
37 2,358 45.09% 2,560 48.95% 86 1.64% 56 1.07% 51 0.98% 17 0.33% 14 0.27% 88 1.68% -202 -3.86% 5,230 10,447 50.06%
38 1,737 32.17% 3,202 59.30% 105 1.94% 112 2.07% 52 0.96% 61 1.13% 30 0.56% 101 1.87% -1,465 -27.13% 5,400 12,145 44.46%
39 1,939 32.26% 3,580 59.56% 123 2.05% 104 1.73% 80 1.33% 45 0.75% 20 0.33% 120 2.00% -1,641 -27.30% 6,011 12,144 49.50%
40 1,994 42.63% 2,318 49.56% 94 2.01% 86 1.84% 47 1.00% 39 0.83% 25 0.53% 74 1.58% -324 -6.93% 4,677 10,118 46.22%
Overseas ballots[71] 59 13.47% 373 85.16% 1 0.23% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 5 1.14% -314 -71.69% 438 681 64.32%
Total 189,951 52.83% 153,778 42.77% 8,897 2.47% 2,673 0.74% 1,127 0.31% 825 0.23% 318 0.09% 3,831[lower-alpha 12] 1.06% 36,173 10.06% 361,400[lower-alpha 13] 595,647 60.67%

By congressional district

Due to the Alaska's low population, only one congressional district, designated the at-large district, is allocated and its results are equivalent to the statewide election results.

Congressional District Donald Trump
Republican		 Joe Biden
Democratic		 Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Jesse Ventura
Green		 Don Blankenship
Constitution		 Brock Pierce
Independent		 Rocky De La Fuente
Alliance		 Write-in Margin Total votes
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
At-Large 189,951 52.83% 153,778 42.77% 8,897 2.47% 2,673 0.74% 1,127 0.31% 825 0.23% 318 0.09% 1,961 0.55% 36,173 10.06% 359,530

Analysis

Scott Goldsmith, an economist at the University of Alaska Anchorage, identifies the Alaskan economy as a three-legged stool, with the legs being the petroleum and gas industry; the federal government and military; and other services.[72] The Alaskan electorate is generally aligned with the Republican Party due to the Democrats' opposition to the oil industry, which is the forefront of the state's economy.[4] The state ranks sixth in the nation for crude oil production, producing 174.8 million barrels in 2018,[73] with the largest oil field in North America by land area in Prudhoe Bay.[74] 110,000 jobs (roughly 31%) are from the in the petroleum and gas industry.[72] The Democratic Party's 2020 platform supported net-zero emissions by 2050, including an end to carbon pollution by the power industry by 2035, both of which would entail ultimately ending oil production entirely. Meanwhile, Trump supported expansion of the country's gas and oil industries and rolled back several environmental protections enacted by the Barack Obama administration.[75] Several of Trump's environmental policies involved loosening restrictions on energy, hunting, and mining in the state: he instructed the Department of Agriculture to exempt Tongass National Forest from logging restrictions;[76] supported the construction of Pebble Mine, an unpopular[77] gold and copper mine in Bristol Bay (though the permit was ultimately denied);[78] rolled back limits on hunters in federal land in Alaska;[79] and opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.[80] While these policies expanded their respective industries, they were met with opposition among environmental groups and the Gwich'in, whose sacred land is partly within the refuge.[81][82] Biden pledged to reverse several of Trump's climate policies[83] and address the climate crisis, and he enacted a temporary moratorium on gas and oil leasing in the ANWR after being inaugurated on January 20, 2021.[84]

Alaska also aligns with the Republicans due to issues regarding the Second Amendment, most prominently for hunting[4] as 64.5% of Alaskan adults own a gun, the third highest proportion in the country.[85][86] Biden supported several gun control measures measures in his 2020 platform while Trump and the Republican Party ideologically opposes gun control with the exception of red flag laws.[87] Trump's environmental and gun policy included reviving hunting techniques in Alaska, an action condemned by several animal rights groups,[88] including the Humane Society Legislative Fund, which endorsed the Biden/Harris ticket on October 6, 2020.[89]

Also playing a major role in Alaska's economy is the federal government, which was responsible for 135,000 jobs between 2004 and 2006, the most of any industry, part of which is attributable to the government's large military presence in the state.[72] Nationwide exit polling collected by Edison Research showed Trump winning veterans 54–44,[90] a major decline from 2016 when he won them 60–34 against Hillary Clinton,[91] possibly explaining Alaska's swing towards the Democratic Party. The other 122,000 jobs in Alaska are mostly in the seafood, tourism, mining, timber, and international air cargo industries. The seafood industry faced extreme disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, [92] with 98% of fishermen surveyed saying their businesses have been negatively affected by the pandemic and 70% stating they stopped fishing altogether.[93] The tourism industry practically collapsed, most prominently in Southeast Alaska, where the halting of the cruise industry – the forefront of the region's economy, along with mining[4] – was expected to drain a projected $190 million and $800 million that would've been spent by cruise passengers and tourists, respectively.[94] Southeast Alaska, home to the major cities of Juneau, Ketchikan, and Sitka, has historically been a Democratic stronghold, with Biden winning three of the region's four State House districts.[70] 53% of the state believed Joe Biden would better handle the pandemic, and among the 17% of voters that viewed the pandemic as their most important issue, 81% voted for Biden.[90]

The election corresponded with the 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan being successfully re-elected against independent Al Gross, who was also nominated and endorsed by the Democratic Party.[95] Sullivan won by a 12.71% margin, outperforming Trump by 2.65 percentage points, consistent with a nationwide trend where down-ballot Republicans outperformed President Trump.[16] In the United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, incumbent Republican Don Young underperformed Trump by 0.92 percentage points against Democrat-endorsed independent Alyse Galvin.[96]

See also

Notes
  1. CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  2. NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  7. Includes "Refused"
  8. "Someone else" with 3%
  9. Poll's funding crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
  10. The national Green Party nominated Howie Hawkins for President with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate, but the Alaska state party chose Ventura and McKinney.
  11. The national Green Party nominated Howie Hawkins for President with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate, but the Alaska state party chose Ventura and McKinney.
  12. For an unknown reason, the amount of write-in votes differs between the official statewide results and the official State House district-level results. The former counts 1,961 and the latter 3,831. Results for all other candidates are identical between the two sources.
  13. For an unknown reason, the amount of write-in votes differs between the official statewide results and the official State House district-level results. The former counts 1,961 and the latter 3,831. Results for all other candidates are identical between the two sources.
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  2. The Independent Alaska PAC supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period

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Further reading
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