2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2014 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky

November 4, 2014
Turnout	46.27%
Nominee Mitch McConnell Alison Lundergan Grimes Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 806,787 584,698 Percentage 56.2% 40.7%
County Results McConnell:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Grimes:      40-50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election Mitch McConnell Republican Elected U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, ran for re-election to a sixth term.[1] He faced Democratic nominee and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Libertarian nominee David Patterson in the general election.

The race was initially seen as a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats, largely due to McConnell's unpopularity among Kentucky voters.[2] The Cook Political Report considered the race a toss-up and the Rothenberg Political Report considered the race to "lean Republican."[3][4] McConnell ultimately defeated Grimes by a larger-than-expected margin[5] of 56.2% to 40.7%.

Republican primary

Immediately after a secret recording of Mitch McConnell and his campaign staff was released to Mother Jones, McConnell expressed concerns about what he saw as a threat from the left. David Adams, a Kentucky Tea Party activist who was seeking a Republican opponent to McConnell, told The New York Times that McConnell's fears about "threats from the left" were misplaced. Adams said: "It's going to come from the right. The fact that he's coming unglued about this thing should make clear to observers that he may not be ready for the challenge that lies ahead."[6]

McConnell won the primary with 60.2% of the vote.[7] According to analysis by the University of Minnesota, this is the lowest voter support for a Kentucky U.S. Senator in a primary by either party since 1938.[8]

Candidates

Candidate Matt Bevin

Declared

• Matt Bevin, businessman[9]
• Brad Copas, former National Guardsman[10]
• Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]
• Chris Payne, party promoter[10][11]
• Shawna Sterling, doctoral student[12][13][14]

Withdrew

• Gurley L. Martin, World War II Veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[15][16]

Declined

• Andy Barr, U.S. Representative[17][18]
• Ernie Fletcher, former Governor of Kentucky and former U.S. Representative[19]
• Brett Guthrie, U.S. Representative[20]
• John Kemper, candidate for State Auditor in 2011[21][22]
• Thomas Massie, U.S. Representative[23]

Endorsements

Matt Bevin

Public figures

• Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[24]
• Mandy Connell, conservative talk radio personality [25]
• Wendy Caswell, founder and president of The Louisville Tea Party[26]
• Tom Dupree, WLAP Radio[27]
• Erick Erickson, journalist, blogger, and editor-in-chief of RedState.com[28]
• Larry Forgy, former Republican national committeeman and 1995 Republican nominee for Governor of Kentucky[29]
• John Kemper, former Republican nominee for KY State Auditor and conservative activist[22]
• Angela Minter, Executive Director of Sisters for Life[30]

Organizations

• Senate Conservatives Fund[31]
• FreedomWorks[32]
• Republican Liberty Caucus[33]
• Gun Owners of America[34]
• Northern Kentucky Right to Life[35]
• Madison Project PAC[36]
• Right Wing News[37]
• Take Back Kentucky[38]
• Tea Party Patriots[39]
• United Kentucky Tea Party[40]
• Louisville Tea Party[41]

Mitch McConnell

Elected officials

• Rick Perry, Governor of Texas and 2012 Presidential Candidate[42]
• James Comer, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture[43]
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and candidate for President of the United States in 2008[44]
• Anne Northup, former U.S. Representative (R-KY)[45]
• Rand Paul, U.S. Senator (R-KY)
• Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator (R-PA)

Organizations

• American Chemistry Council[46]
• National Rifle Association[47]
• National Right to Life Committee[48]
• TheTeaParty.net[49]

Declined to endorse

Elected officials

• Ernie Fletcher, former Governor of Kentucky and former U.S. Representative[19]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell	Matt Bevin	Brad Copas	Chris Payne	Shawna Sterling	Undecided
Wenzel Strategies	July 23–24, 2013	302	± 5.6%	58.9%	19.9%	—	—	—	21.2%
Voter/Consumer Research ^	August 18–20, 2013	600	± 4%	68%	21%	—	—	—	8%
Lake Research Partners	October 24–29, 2013	603	± 4%	50%	17%	—	—	—	33%
Public Policy Polling	December 12–15, 2013	540	± 4.2%	53%	26%	—	—	—	21%
Gravis Marketing	January 2, 2014	683	± 4%	53%	31%	—	—	—	16%
Bluegrass Poll	January 30 – February 4, 2014	404	± 4.9%	55%	29%	—	—	—	15%
Wenzel Strategies	February 8–11, 2014	377	± 5.03%	58.5%	17.4%	—	—	—	24.1%
Public Opinion Strategies	February 24–26, 2014	400	± 4.9%	61%	23%	—	—	—	16%
Gravis Marketing	April 15–17, 2014	638	± 4%	51%	34%	—	—	—	15%
NBC News/Marist	April 30 – May 6, 2014	760	± 3.6%	55%	22%	1%	3%	2%	17%
Gravis Marketing	May 12, 2014	629	± 4%	48%	34%	—	—	—	18%
Bluegrass Poll	May 14–16, 2014	605	± 4%	55%	35%	1%	1%	3%	5%

• ^ Internal poll for Mitch McConnell campaign

Results

Republican primary results[50]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mitch McConnell (incumbent)	213,753	60.19%
	Republican	Matt Bevin	125,787	35.42%
	Republican	Shawna Sterling	7,214	2.03%
	Republican	Chris Payne	5,338	1.51%
	Republican	Brad Copas	3,024	0.85%
Total votes			355,116	100.00%

Democratic primary

In late 2012 and early 2013, media speculation focused on the possibility of a challenge to incumbent Mitch McConnell from actress and Tennessee resident Ashley Judd,[51] who was raised in Kentucky. Judd later announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. On April 9, Mother Jones magazine released a tape of a private meeting between McConnell and, allegedly, his aides reviewing opposition research and tactics to use against Judd. At the February strategy session, McConnell referred to the early stages of his re-election bid as the "Whac-A-Mole period of the campaign" and he and aides discussed attacking Judd's religious views as well as her struggle with depression.[52][53]

Alison Lundergan Grimes, the sitting Secretary of State, entered the primary race with the encouragement of former President Bill Clinton, a friend of Grimes's father, a former Kentucky politician.[54] On May 20, 2014, she won the Democratic primary with 77% of the vote.[55][56] Her father's involvement in the campaign has been noted as a factor in the race because of his personal political history and fundraising connections he brings.[57][58]

Declared

• Burrel Farnsley, perennial candidate[10][59]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky[60]
• Greg Leichty, professor at the University of Louisville[61]
• Tom Recktenwald, businessman[10]

Withdrew

• Ed Marksberry, contractor and nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2010 (ran as an independent before dropping out entirely)[62][63]

Declined

• Jerry Abramson, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former Mayor of Louisville[64]
• Matthew Barzun, United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom and former United States Ambassador to Sweden[65]
• Steve Beshear, Governor of Kentucky[66]
• John Young Brown III, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky in 2007[67]
• Ben Chandler, former U.S. Representative[67][68][69]
• Jack Conway, Attorney General of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[70]
• Adam Edelen, State Auditor of Kentucky[71]
• Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[72]
• Tom FitzGerald, Executive Director of the Kentucky Resources Council[73]
• Heather French Henry, former Miss America[74]
• Bill Garmer, attorney, former Chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party[75]
• Gill Holland, film producer and environmental activist[67]
• Ashley Judd, actress and political activist[76]
• Crit Luallen, former State Auditor[77]
• Daniel Mongiardo, former Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004[78]
• Dennis Parrett, State Senator[20]
• Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former Attorney General of Kentucky[79]
• John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[80]

Endorsements

Alison Lundergan Grimes

Elected officials

• Jerry Abramson, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and former Mayor of Louisville[81]
• Steve Beshear, Governor of Kentucky[82]
• Julian Carroll, State Senator and former Governor of Kentucky[82]
• Bill Clinton, former President of the United States[83]
• Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State
• Martha Layne Collins, former Governor of Kentucky[82]
• Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky
• Wendell Ford, former U.S. Senator and former Governor of Kentucky[83][84]
• Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville
• Terry McAuliffe, Governor of Virginia[85]
• Paul E. Patton, former Governor of Kentucky[86]
• Jody Richards, State Representative and former Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives[86]
• Debbie Stabenow, U.S. Senator from Michigan[87]
• Greg Stumbo, Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives and former Attorney General of Kentucky[83]
• John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative[83]
• Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts[88]

Newspapers

• The Courier-Journal
• The Lexington Herald-Leader

Public figures

• Madeleine Albright, former United States Secretary of State and former United States Ambassador to the United Nations[89]
• James Carville, political commentator and media personality[90]
• Heather French Henry, former Miss America[91]
• Ashley Judd, actress and political activist[92]
• Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO of DreamWorks Animation[93]
• Lilly Ledbetter, activist and namesake of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009[94]
• will.i.am, hip-hop artist[95]

Organizations

• American Sunrise PAC[96]
• Council for a Livable World[97]
• Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[98]
• EMILY's List[99]
• Kentucky Education Association[100]
• Kentucky Professional Firefighters Association[101]
• Kentucky State AFL-CIO[102]
• National Education Association[100]
• United Mine Workers of America[103]

Results

Democratic primary results[50]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Alison Lundergan Grimes	307,821	76.47%
	Democratic	Greg Leichty	32,602	8.10%
	Democratic	Burrel Farnsley	32,310	8.03%
	Democratic	Tom Recktenwald	29,791	7.40%
Total votes			402,524	100.00%

Libertarian primary

Declared

• David Patterson, police officer[104]

Results

Patterson won the Libertarian primary on March 1, 2014. While he ran unopposed, all Libertarian Party candidates must defeat None of the above (NOTA) in the primary operated by the Libertarian Party of Kentucky.[105] He became an official ballot-listed candidate on August 11 after submitting over 9,100 signatures.[106]

Independents

Declared

• Mike Maggard (write-in)[107]
• Robert Ransdell (write-in), white supremacist and Neo-Nazi campaigner[108][109]
• Shawna Sterling (write-in), unsuccessful Republican candidate for the seat[110]

Withdrew

• Ed Marksberry, contractor and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2010[63][111]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[112]	Lean R	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113]	Likely R	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[114]	Likely R	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[115]	Lean R	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)	David Patterson (L)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 7–9, 2012	1,266	± 2.8%	47%	40%	—	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	April 5–7, 2013	1,052	± 3%	45%	41%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	May 23–24, 2013	556	± 4.2%	45%	45%	—	—	10%
Wenzel Strategies	June 1–2, 2013	623	± 3.9%	47%	40%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	July 19–21, 2013	1,210	± 2.8%	44%	45%	—	—	11%
Wenzel Strategies	July 23–24, 2013	624	± 3.9%	48%	40%	—	—	12%
Lake Research Partners	August 5–15, 2013	5,000	± 1.4%	40%	46%	—	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	October 14–15, 2013	1,193	± 2.8%	43%	45%	—	—	12%
Lake Research Partners	October 24–29, 2013	603	± 4%	37%	37%	—	6%	19%
DFM Research	October 21–29, 2013	600	± 4%	41%	40%	—	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	December 12–15, 2013	1,509	± 2.5%	43%	42%	—	—	15%
Gravis Marketing	January 2, 2014	1,153	± 4%	42%	37%	—	8%[116]	13%
Public Policy Polling	January 24–26, 2014	882	± ?%	45%	44%	—	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports	January 29–30, 2014	500	± 4.5%	42%	42%	—	6%	10%
Bluegrass Poll	January 30 – February 4, 2014	1,082	± 3%	42%	46%	—	—	12%
Wenzel Strategies	February 8–11, 2014	1,002	± 3.06%	43%	42%	—	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	April 1–2, 2014	663	± 4%	44%	45%	—	—	11%
New York Times/Kaiser Family	April 8–15, 2014	891	± ?	44%	43%	—	3%	11%
Gravis Marketing	April 15–17, 2014	1,359	± 3%	43%	36%	—	9%[116]	12%
Hickman Analytics	April 24–30, 2014	500	± 4.4%	46%	45%	—	—	9%
NBC News/Marist	April 30 – May 6, 2014	2,353	± 2%	46%	45%	—	1%	8%
Bluegrass Poll	May 14–16, 2014	1,782	± 2.1%	42%	43%	4%	4%[116]	7%
Wenzel Strategies	May 23–24, 2014	608	± 3.95%	47.3%	44.4%	—	—	8.3%
Rasmussen Reports	May 28–29, 2014	750	± 4%	48%	41%	—	5%	7%
Magellan Strategies	June 4–5, 2014	808	± 3.45%	46%	49%	—	—	5%
Public Policy Polling	June 20–22, 2014	682	± 3.8%	46%	48%	—	—	6%
Gravis Marketing	July 17–20, 2014	1,054	± 3%	45%	45%	—	—	10%
SurveyUSA	July 18–23, 2014	604	± 4.1%	41%	39%	7%	—	13%
				47%	45%	—	—	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	July 5–24, 2014	1,546	± 4.2%	49%	45%	—	2%	4%
Wenzel Strategies	August 6, 2014	?	± ?	47%	44%	4%	—	5%
				48%	44%	—	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–10, 2014	991	± 3.1%	44%	40%	7%	—	9%
				47%	42%	—	—	11%
Bluegrass Poll	August 25–27, 2014	569	± 4.2%	46%	42%	5%	—	8%
CNN/ORC	August 28 – September 1, 2014	671	± 4%	50%	46%	—	1%	3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	August 18 – September 2, 2014	2,130	± 3%	47%	42%	—	2%	9%
Rasmussen Reports	September 1–2, 2014	750	± 4%	46%	41%	—	7%	6%
Public Opinion Strategies	September 1–3, 2014	600 LV	± 4%	47%	42%	4%	—	7%
NBC News/Marist	September 2–4, 2014	691 LV	± 3.7%	47%	39%	8%	<1%	6%
		1,184 RV	± 2.8%	45%	38%	9%	<1%	8%
Magellan Strategies	September 4–7, 2014	742 LV	± 3.6%	50%	42%	6%	—	2%
Mellman Group*	September 4–7, 2014	800 LV	± 3.5%	42%	43%	—	—	15%
Ipsos	September 8–12, 2014	944 LV	± 3.6%	46%	42%	—	5%	6%
		1,755 RV	± 2.7%	36%	38%	—	9%	17%
ccAdvertising	September 9–16, 2014	2,282	± ?	42%	33%	—	—	25%
Gravis Marketing	September 13–16, 2014	839	± 3%	51%	41%	—	—	8%
Mellman Group*	September 19–27, 2014	1,800	± 2.3%	40%	42%	3%	—	16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	September 20 – October 1, 2014	1,689	± 3%	47%	41%	2%	1%	9%
Bluegrass Poll	September 29 – October 2, 2014	632	± 4%	44%	46%	3%	—	7%
Fox News	October 4–7, 2014	706	3.5%	45%	41%	3%	3%	8%
Gravis Marketing	October 11–12, 2014	1,020	± 3%	50%	47%	—	—	3%
Rasmussen Reports	October 15–16, 2014	1,000	± 3%	52%	44%	2%	—	2%
WKU/Big Red Poll	October 6–19, 2014	? LV	± ?%	45%	42%	5%	—	8%
		601 RV	± 4%	45%	40%	5%	—	9%
SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll	October 15–19, 2014	655	± 3.9%	44%	43%	5%	—	8%
Voter Consumer Research^	October 16–19, 2014	815	± 3.5%	49%	41%	3%	—	7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	October 16–23, 2014	1,502	± 4%	45%	39%	2%	0%	14%
Public Opinion Strategies	October 25–27, 2014	600	± 4%	50%	43%	4%	0%	3%
SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll	October 26–30, 2014	597	± 4.1%	48%	43%	3%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	October 26–30, 2014	556 LV	± 4.2%	50%	41%	5%	<1%	3%
		894 RV	± 3.3%	49%	39%	6%	<1%	6%
NBC News/Marist	October 26–30, 2014	556	± 4.2%	50%	41%	5%	<1%	3%
		894	± 3.3%	49%	39%	6%	<1%	6%
Public Policy Polling	October 30 – November 1, 2014	1,503	± 2.5%	50%	42%	3%	—	5%
				53%	44%	—	—	4%

• ^ Internal poll for McConnell campaign
• * Internal Poll for Grimes campaign

Results

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2014[117]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mitch McConnell (incumbent)	806,787	56.19%	+3.22%
	Democratic	Alison Lundergan Grimes	584,698	40.72%	-6.31%
	Libertarian	David M. Patterson	44,240	3.08%	N/A
	n/a	Write-ins	143	0.01%	N/A
Total votes			1,453,868	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

See also

• 2014 United States Senate elections
• 2014 United States elections

References

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External links

• U.S. Senate elections in Kentucky, 2014 at Ballotpedia
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org