2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1] Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%.

See also: 2015 Kentucky elections
2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
November 3, 2015
Turnout30%
 
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote 511,374 426,620
Percentage 52.5% 43.8%
County results
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Conway:      40–50%      50–60%
Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

Elections in Kentucky
Federal government
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United States Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
State Treasurer elections
Auditor of Public Accounts elections
State elections
Ballot measures
2004
Amendment 1
Lexington
Mayoral elections
Louisville
Mayoral elections
Government

Democratic primary

Declared
  • Running mate: Johnathan Masters[5]
  • Former running mate: Cherokee Schill[4]

Declined

Endorsements
Jack Conway/Sannie Overly
Statewide elected officials
Individuals
Members of the Kentucky legislature
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jack
Conway		 Geoff
Young		 Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 707 ± 3.5% 68% 13% 19%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 640 ± 3.9% 61% 12% 27%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 255 ± 6.14% 59% 13% 28%

Results
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.8%
Democratic Geoff Young 37,887 21.2%
Total votes 178,514 100.0%

Republican primary

Declared
  • James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012[66]
  • Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 20142015 [72]

Withdrew
  • Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran[73]
  • Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[73]

Declined

Endorsements
James Comer/Chris McDaniel
Individuals
Organizations
  • Associated General Contractors[96]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie
Individuals
Organizations
  • Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [97]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton
Individuals
  • Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [98]
  • Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [99]
Organizations
  • Cincinnati Enquirer [100]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Cathy
Bailey		 Matt
Bevin		 James
Comer		 Hal
Heiner		 Will T.
Scott		 Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 517 ± 4.4% — 27% 26% 25% 8% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 6–7, 2015 501 ± 4.4% — 25% 28% 27% — 20%
Triumph Campaigns March 26, 2015 601 ± 4% — 12% 19% 33% 3% 29%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 520 ± 4.4% — 20% 20% 28% 8% 25%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 261 ± 6.07% — 18% 25% 19% 9% 30%
Remington Research January 27–28, 2015 1,000 ± ? — 19% 22% 18% 5% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 383 ± ? 11% 25% 20% 18% — 26%
— — 22% 28% — 50%
Public Opinion Strategies February 26–27, 2014 400 ± 4.9% — — 42% 14% — 13%

Results
Primary results by county:
  Tie between Bevin and Comer—29%

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[61]

Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91%
Republican James Comer 70,397 32.89%
Republican Hal Heiner 57,951 27.10%
Republican Will T. Scott 15,365 7.20%
Total votes 214,187 100.00%

Independents

Declared
  • Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[101]
  • Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[104] Tossup October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[105] Tilt D October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[106] Lean D October 29, 2015

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jack
Conway (D)		 Matt
Bevin (R)		 Drew
Curtis (I)		 Undecided
Vox Populi October 26–27, 2015 618 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 6% 6%
43% 46% 6% 7%
Survey USA October 23–26, 2015 798 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 6% 10%
WKU Social Science Research Center October 19–25, 2015 770 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 7% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2015 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 6% 10%
Survey USA September 22–27, 2015 701 ± 3.8% 42% 37% 7% 15%
Survey USA July 22–28, 2015 685 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 8% 11%
45% 42% — 13%
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 35% 38% 6% 21%
38% 40% — 22%
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 37% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 42% 36% — 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 45% 41% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 44% 36% — 20%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 36% — 25%

Results
Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2015[107][108][109]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52% +17.23%
Democratic Jack Conway 426,620 43.82% -11.90%
Independent Drew Curtis 35,597 3.66% N/A
Total votes 973,692 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

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