2016 United States presidential election in Michigan

The 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2016 United States presidential election in Michigan

November 8, 2016
Turnout	63%[1]
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Party Republican Democratic Home state New York New York Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Electoral vote 16 0 Popular vote 2,279,543 2,268,839 Percentage 47.50% 47.27%
County Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80% Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color[2]

Treemap of the popular vote by county

In the general election, Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes over Clinton's 47.27%. This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's history in presidential election, as well as the narrowest margin of any state in the 2016 election. All of Michigan's 16 Electoral College votes were thus assigned to Trump, significantly contributing to his national electoral victory. Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from working-class voters, a demographic group that had previously tended to vote for the Democratic candidate.[4] By winning Michigan, Trump became the first Republican candidate to win the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Michigan also became one of eleven states to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost.

The Michigan Board of Canvassers certified Trump's lead of 10,704 votes over Clinton, a 0.23% margin, on November 28.[5] The deadline to request a recount was then set for November 30 at 2:00 p.m. That same day, Green Party candidate Jill Stein's campaign requested a hand recount, but the recount was halted December 1 after the state received an objection from Trump representatives.[6] The objection was rejected by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on December 2, and a federal judge ordered the recount to start again on December 5.[7] Finally, the recount was halted on December 7 after a federal judge issued an order to Michigan's Board of Elections, thus making Trump's win official.[8]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results by county.

  Bernie Sanders

  Hillary Clinton

Results

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[9]

Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	598,943	49.68%	67	0	67
Hillary Clinton	581,775	48.26%	63	10	73
Uncommitted	21,601	1.79%	0	7	7
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	2,363	0.20%
Rocky De La Fuente	870	0.07%
Total	1,205,552	100%	130	17	147
Source: The Green Papers

Republican primary

Four candidates participated in the Republican primary.[10]

Republican primary results by county.

  Donald Trump

  Ted Cruz

  John Kasich

Debate

Detroit, March 3

Candidate	Airtime[11]	Polls[12]
Trump	26:40	35.6%
Cruz	19:23	19.8%
Rubio	13:32	17.4%
Kasich	15:20	8.8%

The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at the Fox Theatre in downtown Detroit, Michigan.[13] It was the third debate to air on Fox News Channel.[14] Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace served as moderators.[15] It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm.[16] Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate.[17][18]

Results

Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[9]

Michigan Republican primary, March 8, 2016
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	483,753	36.55%	25	0	25
Ted Cruz	326,617	24.68%	17	0	17
John Kasich	321,115	24.26%	17	0	17
Marco Rubio	123,587	9.34%	0	0	0
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	21,349	1.61%	0	0	0
Uncommitted (withdrawn)	22,824	1.72%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	10,685	0.81%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	3,774	0.29%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	3,116	0.24%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	2,603	0.20%	0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	1,722	0.13%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	1,415	0.11%	0	0	0
George Pataki (withdrawn)	591	0.04%	0	0	0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)	438	0.03%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	1,323,589	100.00%	59	0	59
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Although won by Democratic candidates in every election since 1992, sometimes by decisive margins, in 2016 Michigan was considered a swing state and received much attention from Republican party candidate Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton's campaign was confident they would win the state, and projected a 5-point win up until election day.[19] Trump was able to win the state for the first time since George H. W. Bush won it in 1988,[20] albeit by a narrow 0.23% margin of victory. On Election Day, Detroit Free Press had prematurely called the state for Clinton at 9:15pm before retracting the call three hours later,[21] an error which had been common in many sources at the 2000 election, in the states of Florida and New Mexico. Donald Trump's upset victory in the state has led to it gaining new status as a swing state, and many experts have cited Michigan as being a crucial state in the 2020 election, although some say it is leaning towards the Democratic Party. Trump's State Campaign was run by Scott Hagerstrom (State Director), CJ Galdes (Deputy State Director), Christopher Morris (Field Director), and Tia Jurkiw (Events Coordinator). [22][23]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times[24]	Likely D	November 6, 2016
CNN[25]	Lean D	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[26]	Lean D	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[27]	Lean D	November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[28]	Tossup	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29]	Lean D	November 7, 2016
Fox News[30]	Lean D	November 7, 2016

Polling

Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%.[31] The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%.[32] Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise.

Minor candidates

The following were given write-in status:[33]

• Cherunda Fox
• Ben Hartnell
• Tom Hoefling
• Laurence Kotlikoff
• Evan McMullin
• Mike Maturen
• Monica Moorehead

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	Donald Trump	Mike Pence	2,279,543	47.50%	16
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	Tim Kaine	2,268,839	47.27%	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	William Weld	172,136	3.59%	0
	Green	Jill Stein	Ajamu Baraka	51,463	1.07%	0
	Constitution	Darrell Castle	Scott Bradley	16,139	0.33%	0
	Independent	Evan McMullin (write-in)	Mindy Finn	8,177	0.17%	0
	Socialist	Mimi Soltysik	Angela Nicole Walker	2,209	0.05%	0
	-	Others	-	778	0.02%	0
Totals				4,799,284	100.00%	16

Results by county

Final official results from the Michigan Secretary of State.[2]

County		Candidate					Total
		Trump	Clinton	Johnson	Stein	(other)
Alcona	percent	67.78%	27.94%	2.65%	0.87%	0.76%	100.00%
	votes	4,201	1,732	164	54	47	6,198
Alger	percent	57.22%	36.81%	3.92%	1.48%	0.58%	100.00%
	votes	2,585	1,663	177	67	26	4,518
Allegan	percent	61.28%	32.36%	4.50%	1.07%	0.80%	100.00%
	votes	34,183	18,050	2,513	596	444	55,786
Alpena	percent	61.85%	33.18%	3.39%	1.09%	0.50%	100.00%
	votes	9,090	4,877	498	160	73	14,698
Antrim	percent	62.35%	32.75%	3.38%	1.07%	0.44%	100.00%
	votes	8,469	4,448	459	146	60	13,582
Arenac	percent	64.32%	30.98%	3.51%	0.78%	0.42%	100.00%
	votes	4,950	2,384	270	60	32	7,696
Baraga	percent	61.83%	33.12%	3.04%	1.40%	0.60%	100.00%
	votes	2,158	1,156	106	49	21	3,490
Barry	percent	63.31%	30.05%	4.70%	1.14%	0.80%	100.00%
	votes	19,202	9,114	1,424	346	243	30,329
Bay	percent	53.47%	40.85%	4.13%	1.03%	0.52%	100.00%
	votes	28,328	21,642	2,189	544	274	52,977
Benzie	percent	54.16%	40.16%	3.73%	1.46%	0.49%	100.00%
	votes	5,539	4,108	382	149	50	10,228
Berrien	percent	53.65%	40.95%	3.83%	0.92%	0.65%	100.00%
	votes	38,647	29,495	2,760	662	467	72,031
Branch	percent	66.73%	28.65%	3.30%	0.85%	0.47%	100.00%
	votes	11,786	5,061	582	151	83	17,663
Calhoun	percent	53.47%	41.01%	3.88%	1.08%	0.56%	100.00%
	votes	31,494	24,157	2,284	635	332	58,902
Cass	percent	63.04%	32.18%	3.33%	0.88%	0.58%	100.00%
	votes	14,243	7,270	753	199	130	22,595
Charlevoix	percent	59.46%	35.21%	3.65%	1.22%	0.47%	100.00%
	votes	8,674	5,137	532	178	68	14,589
Cheboygan	percent	63.51%	31.47%	3.39%	1.02%	0.61%	100.00%
	votes	8,683	4,302	463	140	84	13,672
Chippewa	percent	59.02%	34.80%	3.77%	1.57%	0.83%	100.00%
	votes	9,122	5,379	583	243	129	15,456
Clare	percent	63.52%	31.74%	3.25%	0.90%	0.60%	100.00%
	votes	8,505	4,249	435	120	80	13,389
Clinton	percent	53.22%	40.57%	4.64%	0.93%	0.64%	100.00%
	votes	21,636	16,492	1,886	379	262	40,655
Crawford	percent	63.62%	30.83%	3.90%	0.96%	0.69%	100.00%
	votes	4,354	2,110	267	66	47	6,844
Delta	percent	60.14%	34.80%	3.57%	0.98%	0.50%	100.00%
	votes	11,121	6,436	660	182	93	18,492
Dickinson	percent	65.17%	29.80%	3.42%	0.93%	0.68%	100.00%
	votes	8,580	3,923	450	123	89	13,165
Eaton	percent	49.11%	44.36%	4.66%	1.07%	0.81%	100.00%
	votes	27,609	24,938	2,618	602	454	56,221
Emmet	percent	56.46%	37.08%	4.29%	1.48%	0.69%	100.00%
	votes	10,616	6,972	806	279	129	18,802
Genesee	percent	42.88%	52.34%	3.17%	1.12%	0.49%	100.00%
	votes	84,175	102,751	6,221	2,193	956	196,296
Gladwin	percent	65.14%	30.42%	3.15%	0.70%	0.59%	100.00%
	votes	8,124	3,794	393	87	74	12,472
Gogebic	percent	54.82%	39.91%	2.91%	1.61%	0.75%	100.00%
	votes	4,018	2,925	213	118	55	7,329
Grand Traverse	percent	53.14%	40.64%	4.17%	1.47%	0.59%	100.00%
	votes	27,413	20,965	2,149	756	306	51,589
Gratiot	percent	60.01%	34.41%	4.17%	0.85%	0.56%	100.00%
	votes	9,880	5,666	687	140	92	16,465
Hillsdale	percent	70.69%	24.07%	3.51%	0.92%	0.81%	100.00%
	votes	14,095	4,799	700	184	162	19,940
Houghton	percent	54.24%	38.52%	5.36%	1.38%	0.50%	100.00%
	votes	8,475	6,018	837	216	78	15,624
Huron	percent	67.17%	28.77%	3.00%	0.65%	0.41%	100.00%
	votes	10,692	4,579	477	104	65	15,917
Ingham	percent	33.45%	60.33%	4.05%	1.41%	0.77%	100.00%
	votes	43,868	79,110	5,305	1,846	1,009	131,138
Ionia	percent	61.95%	31.10%	5.05%	1.07%	0.84%	100.00%
	votes	16,635	8,352	1,355	286	226	26,854
Iosco	percent	62.46%	32.52%	3.44%	1.09%	0.49%	100.00%
	votes	8,345	4,345	459	146	66	13,361
Iron	percent	62.18%	33.91%	2.96%	0.61%	0.34%	100.00%
	votes	3,675	2,004	175	36	20	5,910
Isabella	percent	48.59%	44.91%	4.30%	1.56%	0.63%	100.00%
	votes	12,338	11,404	1,093	396	161	25,392
Jackson	percent	57.11%	37.02%	4.16%	1.02%	0.68%	100.00%
	votes	39,793	25,795	2,901	713	475	69,677
Kalamazoo	percent	40.41%	53.17%	4.47%	1.29%	0.66%	100.00%
	votes	51,034	67,148	5,644	1,634	839	126,299
Kalkaska	percent	69.24%	25.81%	3.20%	1.34%	0.41%	100.00%
	votes	6,116	2,280	283	118	36	8,833
Kent	percent	48.08%	45.00%	4.62%	1.30%	1.00%	100.00%
	votes	148,180	138,683	14,246	3,996	3,079	308,184
Keweenaw	percent	56.76%	36.75%	4.32%	1.39%	0.77%	100.00%
	votes	814	527	62	20	11	1,434
Lake	percent	59.29%	36.39%	2.85%	0.90%	0.56%	100.00%
	votes	3,159	1,939	152	48	30	5,328
Lapeer	percent	66.48%	28.18%	3.83%	0.94%	0.57%	100.00%
	votes	30,037	12,734	1,730	426	256	45,183
Leelanau	percent	49.05%	45.90%	3.46%	1.33%	0.25%	100.00%
	votes	7,239	6,774	510	197	37	14,757
Lenawee	percent	57.53%	36.46%	4.45%	0.98%	0.58%	100.00%
	votes	26,430	16,750	2,044	449	266	45,939
Livingston	percent	62.04%	32.48%	4.03%	0.86%	0.59%	100.00%
	votes	65,680	34,384	4,266	911	625	105,866
Luce	percent	68.09%	26.41%	3.99%	1.12%	0.39%	100.00%
	votes	1,756	681	103	29	10	2,579
Mackinac	percent	61.41%	34.20%	2.95%	1.10%	0.34%	100.00%
	votes	3,744	2,085	180	67	21	6,097
Macomb	percent	53.58%	42.05%	3.07%	0.93%	0.38%	100.00%
	votes	224,665	176,317	12,862	3,886	1,582	419,312
Manistee	percent	54.89%	39.52%	3.62%	1.59%	0.39%	100.00%
	votes	6,915	4,979	456	200	49	12,599
Marquette	percent	44.41%	48.65%	4.42%	1.77%	0.75%	100.00%
	votes	14,646	16,042	1,458	583	247	32,976
Mason	percent	57.92%	35.96%	4.09%	1.29%	0.74%	100.00%
	votes	8,505	5,281	601	189	109	14,685
Mecosta	percent	60.02%	33.94%	4.06%	1.33%	0.64%	100.00%
	votes	10,305	5,827	697	229	110	17,168
Menominee	percent	62.24%	32.87%	3.26%	1.10%	0.54%	100.00%
	votes	6,702	3,539	351	118	58	10,768
Midland	percent	56.10%	36.78%	5.21%	0.96%	0.95%	100.00%
	votes	23,846	15,635	2,216	407	402	42,506
Missaukee	percent	73.61%	21.39%	3.29%	1.01%	0.70%	100.00%
	votes	5,386	1,565	241	74	51	7,317
Monroe	percent	58.29%	36.19%	4.02%	0.95%	0.54%	100.00%
	votes	43,261	26,863	2,985	707	402	74,218
Montcalm	percent	63.54%	29.59%	4.95%	1.10%	0.83%	100.00%
	votes	16,907	7,874	1,316	292	220	26,609
Montmorency	percent	69.83%	25.69%	3.17%	0.88%	0.42%	100.00%
	votes	3,498	1,287	159	44	21	5,009
Muskegon	percent	46.26%	47.77%	4.07%	1.23%	0.65%	100.00%
	votes	36,127	37,304	3,182	964	511	78,088
Newaygo	percent	67.02%	27.44%	3.88%	0.87%	0.80%	100.00%
	votes	15,173	6,212	878	197	180	22,640
Oakland	percent	43.51%	51.62%	3.48%	0.96%	0.42%	100.00%
	votes	289,203	343,070	23,154	6,396	2,791	664,614
Oceana	percent	60.59%	33.30%	4.12%	0.97%	1.01%	100.00%
	votes	7,228	3,973	492	116	121	11,930
Ogemaw	percent	65.73%	29.17%	3.40%	1.14%	0.57%	100.00%
	votes	6,827	3,030	353	118	59	10,387
Ontonagon	percent	60.30%	34.33%	3.74%	0.85%	0.79%	100.00%
	votes	2,066	1,176	128	29	27	3,426
Osceola	percent	69.15%	25.50%	3.78%	0.90%	0.67%	100.00%
	votes	7,336	2,705	401	96	71	10,609
Oscoda	percent	69.80%	25.63%	3.44%	0.44%	0.69%	100.00%
	votes	2,843	1,044	140	18	28	4,073
Otsego	percent	65.93%	28.36%	3.84%	1.30%	0.57%	100.00%
	votes	8,266	3,556	482	163	71	12,538
Ottawa	percent	61.98%	31.51%	4.43%	0.99%	1.09%	100.00%
	votes	88,467	44,973	6,324	1,418	1,552	142,734
Presque Isle	percent	62.18%	33.25%	3.28%	0.69%	0.60%	100.00%
	votes	4,488	2,400	237	50	43	7,218
Roscommon	percent	62.43%	32.87%	3.17%	1.09%	0.44%	100.00%
	votes	8,141	4,287	413	142	58	13,041
Saginaw	percent	48.21%	47.07%	3.39%	0.83%	0.50%	100.00%
	votes	45,469	44,396	3,199	780	476	94,320
Sanilac	percent	69.85%	25.32%	3.44%	0.88%	0.51%	100.00%
	votes	13,446	4,873	662	170	98	19,249
Schoolcraft	percent	61.53%	32.96%	3.97%	0.75%	0.79%	100.00%
	votes	2,556	1,369	165	31	33	4,154
Shiawassee	percent	56.37%	36.78%	4.87%	1.06%	0.92%	100.00%
	votes	19,230	12,546	1,660	362	313	34,111
St. Clair	percent	62.88%	31.48%	3.81%	1.36%	0.47%	100.00%
	votes	49,051	24,553	2,972	1,062	365	78,003
St. Joseph	percent	62.65%	31.68%	3.93%	1.22%	0.52%	100.00%
	votes	14,884	7,526	934	290	123	23,757
Tuscola	percent	66.30%	28.80%	3.38%	0.86%	0.67%	100.00%
	votes	17,102	7,429	872	221	172	25,796
Van Buren	percent	53.77%	39.84%	4.45%	1.25%	0.69%	100.00%
	votes	17,890	13,258	1,480	417	229	33,274
Washtenaw	percent	26.85%	68.13%	3.10%	1.31%	0.61%	100.00%
	votes	50,631	128,483	5,840	2,472	1,152	188,578
Wayne	percent	29.44%	66.78%	2.42%	1.00%	0.36%	100.00%
	votes	228,993	519,444	18,801	7,784	2,816	777,838
Wexford	percent	65.37%	29.00%	3.78%	1.26%	0.59%	100.00%
	votes	10,000	4,436	579	192	91	15,298
Total	percent	47.50%	47.27%	3.59%	1.07%	0.57%	100.00%
	votes	2,279,543	2,268,839	172,136	51,463	27,303	4,799,284

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[34]

• Bay County (largest city: Bay City)
• Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek)
• Eaton (largest city: Charlotte)
• Gogebic (largest city: Ironwood)
• Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant)
• Lake (largest village: Baldwin)
• Macomb (largest city: Warren)
• Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
• Monroe (largest city: Monroe)
• Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw)
• Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso)
• Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)

By congressional district

Trump won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[35]

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
1st	58%	37%	Dan Benishek
			Jack Bergman
2nd	55%	38%	Bill Huizenga
3rd	52%	42%	Justin Amash
4th	59%	35%	John Moolenaar
5th	45%	50%	Dan Kildee
6th	51%	43%	Fred Upton
7th	56%	39%	Tim Walberg
8th	51%	44%	Mike Bishop
9th	44%	51%	Sander Levin
10th	64%	32%	Candice Miller
			Paul Mitchell
11th	49%	45%	David Trott
12th	34%	61%	Debbie Dingell
13th	18%	79%	John Conyers Jr.
14th	18%	79%	Brenda Lawrence

See also

• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

References

1. "SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics". Michigan.gov.
2. Michigan Election Results, Michigan Secretary of State, November 28, 2016
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
4. Cohn, Nate (November 9, 2016). "Why Trump Won: Working-Class". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 10, 2017.
5. Gray, Kathleen; Egan, Paul (November 28, 2016). "Board of Canvassers certifies Trump victory in Michigan". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
6. Keneally, Meghan (December 9, 2016). "Everything you need to know about the election recount efforts". ABC News. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
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Further reading

• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 9, 2020), "The six political states of Michigan", Washingtonpost.com

External links

• 2016 Michigan Election Results
• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions