Next Valencian regional election

The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election.

Next Valencian regional election
No later than 28 May 2023
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Ximo Puig Isabel Bonig Toni Cantó
Party PSPV–PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 31 March 2012 28 July 2015 2 March 2019
Leader's seat Castellón Valencia Valencia
Last election 27 seats, 24.2% 19 seats, 19.1% 18 seats, 17.7%
Current seats 27 19 18
Seats needed 23 31 32
 
Leader Mónica Oltra José María Llanos Rubén Martínez Dalmau
Party Compromís Vox Unides Podem–EUPV
Leader since 31 January 2015 26 March 2019 27 November 2018
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia Alicante
Last election 17 seats, 16.7% 10 seats, 10.6% 8 seats, 8.1%
Current seats 17 10 8
Seats needed 33 40 42
Incumbent President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

Overview

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Corts is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Valencians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other).[1][3]

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 April 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 April 2023. The election decree must be published in the DOGV no later than 4 April 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary status

The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Corts at the present time.[5]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSPV–PSOE 27 27
People's Parliamentary Group PP 19 19
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 18 18
Commitment Parliamentary Group Compromís 17 17
Vox Valencian Community Parliamentary Group Vox 10 10
United We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 6 8
EUPV 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov.
Votes (%) Seats
PSPV–PSOE Ximo Puig Social democracy 24.21% 27 Y
PP Isabel Bonig Conservatism
Christian democracy		 19.12% 19 N
Cs Toni Cantó Liberalism 17.70% 18 N
Compromís Mónica Oltra Valencian nationalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics		 16.68% 17 Y
Vox José María Llanos Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 10.59% 10 N
Unides
Podem–EUPV		 Rubén Martínez Dalmau Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 8.10% 8 Y

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 50 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
GAD3/Cs[p 1] 14–20 Oct 2020 1,002 ? 31.3
33/34		 24.2
25/27		 11.8
12		 11.2
10		 12.0
12/13		 6.1
5		 7.1
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 2] 1–7 Oct 2020 1,800 ? 27.4
29		 24.7
26		 7.9
8		 17.3
17		 13.4
14		 7.0
5		 2.7
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 3] 28 Sep–5 Oct 2020 750 ? 32.7
36		 19.6
21		 7.5
7		 14.8
15		 11.1
11		 9.9
9		 13.1
SyM Consulting/EPDA[p 4] 24–27 Sep 2020 1,706 73.2 23.6
25/26		 18.4
19/20		 9.5
7/8		 16.8
17/18		 16.8
18		 11.8
10/12		 5.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5] 31 Jul 2020 850 ? 25.8
27		 23.9
26		 9.0
9		 16.6
16		 12.8
13		 7.8
8		 1.9
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 6] 17–20 Jun 2020 1,000 65.7 27.3
28		 25.6
27		 6.8
8		 16.7
15		 12.8
13		 8.3
8		 1.7
SyM Consulting[p 7][p 8] 19–21 May 2020 1,695 72.6 24.6
25/26		 23.4
25/26		 12.0
11		 15.1
14/15		 13.9
14/16		 7.4
7/8		 1.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9][p 10] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 26.2
27		 23.6
25		 8.8
9		 16.3
16		 12.6
13		 8.4
9		 2.6
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 69.8 27.6
31		 23.0
24		 7.7
7		 7.0
5		 18.5
19		 13.4
13		 4.6
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 11] 23 Sep–1 Oct 2019 900 ? 32.6
35		 21.8
22		 10.0
10		 16.5
18		 8.7
8		 7.4
6		 10.8
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 N/A 62.5 33.0
36		 22.6
25		 14.3
15		 8.4
7		 7.2
7		 9.7
9		 10.4
2019 regional election 28 Apr 2019 N/A 73.7 24.2
27		 19.1
19		 17.7
18		 16.7
17		 10.6
10		 8.1
8		 5.1

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "El centro derecha recuperaría la Generalitat, según un sondeo de Cs". La Provincia (in Spanish). 7 November 2020.
  2. "El descalabro de Ciudadanos abre a Puig y Oltra las puertas de un tercer mandato". ESdiario (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  3. "El bloque de la izquierda resiste a la pandemia y aumenta su ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  4. "La izquierda mantendría la Generalitat Valenciana pese a la gran subida de Vox a costa de Ciudadanos, según un sondeo de SyM Consulting para El Periódico de Aquí". El Periódico de Aquí (in Spanish). 8 October 2020.
  5. "ElectoPanel (31Jul): el Botànic se mantiene por el empuje de Compromis. Subidón de EH Bildu tras el 12J". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 July 2020.
  6. "Sondeo ESdiario: El PSPV de Puig resiste ante la escalada del PP". ESdiario (in Spanish). 23 June 2020.
  7. "Estimación resultados electorales. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  8. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/05/2020: UP-EUPV 7,4% (7/8), COMPROMÍS 15,1% (14/15), PSOE 24,6% (25/26), Cs 12,0% (11), PP 23,4% (25/26), VOX 13,9% (14/16)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  9. "EP (17My): Com. Valenciana – desplome de Cs que aprovechan PP y Vox. Se mantiene el Botanic". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  10. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  11. "La izquierda toma ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 5/1982, de 1 de julio, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Valenciana". Organic Law No. 1 of 1 July 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 1/1987, de 31 de marzo, Electoral Valenciana". Law No. 2 of 31 March 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. "Grupos parlamentarios". Corts Valencianes (in Spanish). Retrieved 11 October 2019.
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