2023 Ceuta Assembly election

The 2023 Ceuta Assembly election, will be held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous city of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly will be up for election.

2023 Ceuta Assembly election

28 May 2023
All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority
Leader Juan Jesús Vivas Manuel Hernández Peinado Juan Sergio Redondo Party PP PSOE Vox Leader since October 1999 25 July 2015 22 April 2019 Last election 9 seats, 31.1% 7 seats, 25.6% 6 seats, 22.4%   Leader Fátima Hamed Hossain Mohamed Alí Party MDyC Caballas Leader since 27 October 2014 14 March 2011 Last election 2 seats, 7.0% 1 seat, 6.2%
Incumbent Mayor-President Juan Jesús Vivas PP

Electoral system

The Assembly of Ceuta is the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta.[1]

Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allows Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[2] The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][2]

The Mayor-President is indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause requires that mayoral candidates earn the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly shall be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[1]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[2]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 13 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				MDyC			Lead
SyM Consulting[p 1][p 2]	9–12 Dec 2020	652	49.8	25.0 7	20.1 5/6	28.3 7/8	8.9 2	12.7 3	–	3.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3]	16 Aug–26 Sep 2020	?	?	38.9 10	22.1 6	15.6 4	10.9 3	8.9 2	2.3 0	16.8
SyM Consulting[p 4][p 5]	12–13 Sep 2020	687	50.8	29.8 8	20.5 5/6	23.4 6/7	11.4 3	9.7 2	–	6.4
SyM Consulting[p 6][p 7]	22–23 Jun 2020	564	59.3	35.4 9/10	26.1 7	14.5 4	8.3 2/3	9.2 2	1.8 0	9.3
SyM Consulting[p 8][p 9]	25–26 May 2020	541	65.9	39.3 10/11	18.2 5	8.4 2	16.8 4/5	12.0 3	1.4 0	21.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 10][p 11]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	40.0 11	24.2 7	16.4 4	7.6 2	6.4 1	2.4 0	15.8
SyM Consulting[p 12][p 13]	1–2 Feb 2020	534	61.7	39.1 10/11	24.9 7	7.9 2	12.5 3	10.1 2/3	1.6 0	14.2
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/A	54.0	22.3 6	31.3 9	35.2 10	2.5 0	–	3.4 0	3.9
2019 Assembly election	26 May 2019	N/A	56.9	31.1 9	25.6 7	22.4 6	7.0 2	6.2 1	4.5 0	5.5

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Estimación oleada Diciembre 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
2. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 21/12/2020: CABALLAS 12,7% (3), MDyC 8,9% (2), PSOE 20,1% (5/6), PP 25,0% (7), VOX 28,3% (7/8)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 December 2020.
3. "EP Autonómico (30S): subida de MDyC y bajada del PP que dejan a la izquierda más cerca del Gobierno de Ceuta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 September 2020.
4. "Estimación oleada Septiembre 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 17 September 2020.
5. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 17/09/2020: CABALLAS 9,7% (2), MDyC 11,4% (3), PSOE 20,5% (5/6), PP 29,8% (8), VOX 23,4% (6/7)". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 September 2020.
6. "Estimación oleada Julio 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 June 2020.
7. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/06/2020: CABALLAS 9,2% (2/3), MDyC 8,3% (2), PSOE 26,1% (7), Cs 1,8%, PP 35,4% (9/10), VOX 14,5% (4)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 June 2020.
8. "Estimación oleada Mayo 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 1 June 2020.
9. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 01/06/2020: CABALLAS 12,0% (3), MDyC 16,8% (4/5), PSOE 18,2% (5), Cs 1,4%, PP 39,3% (10/11), VOX 8,4% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 June 2020.
10. "EP (17My): Ceuta – trasvase de Vox al PP". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
11. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
12. "Estimación oleada Febrero 2020 Ceuta. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 5 February 2020.
13. "CEUTA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 05/02/2020: CABALLAS 10,1% (2/3), MDyC 12,5% (3), PSOE 24,9% (7), Cs 1,6%, PP 39,1% (10/11), VOX 7,9% (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 February 2020.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 1/1995, de 13 de marzo, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Ceuta". Law No. 1 of 13 March 1995. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 February 2020.
2. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.