Population growth

Population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population. Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually,[2] or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.8 billion[3] in 2020. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.[4] Many nations with rapid population growth have low standards of living, whereas many nations with low rates of population growth have high standards of living.[5]

Population[6]
Years passed Year Billion
–18001
12719272
3319603
1419744
1319875
1219996
1220117
122023*8
142037*9
182055*10
332088*11
*World Population Prospects 2017
(United Nations Population Division)
Absolute increase in global human population per year[1]

History
World human population estimates from 1800 to 2100, with estimated range of future population after 2020 based on "high" and "low" scenarios. Data from the United Nations projections in 2019.

World population has been rising continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350.[7] Population began growing rapidly in the Western world during the industrial revolution. The most significant increase in the world's population has been since the 1950s, mainly due to medical advancements[8] and increases in agricultural productivity.[9]

Haber process
Main article: Haber process § Economic and environmental aspects

Due to its dramatic impact on the human ability to grow food, the Haber process, named after one of its inventors, the German chemist Fritz Haber, served as the "detonator of the population explosion", enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2019.[10]

Thomas McKeown hypotheses

Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population"[11] were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:

  1. McKeown stated that the growth in Western population, particularly surging in the 19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by infant mortality,[12][13]
  2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of living, whereby McKeown put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
  3. His most controversial idea, at least his most disputed idea, was that he questioned the effectiveness of public health measures, including sanitary reforms, vaccination and quarantine,[14]
  4. The sometime fierce disputes that his publication provoked around the "McKeown thesis", have overshadowed his more important and largely unchallenged argument that curative medicine measures played little role in mortality decline, not only prior to the mid-20th century[12] but also until well into the 20th century.[15]

Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas.[16] His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine".[17]

Population growth rate
External video
Human Population Through Time: American Museum of Natural History

The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:

A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.[18]

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than 1 indicates that the population of females is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of females is decreasing.

Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources.[19]

The logistic growth of a population.

Logistic equation

The growth of a population can often be modelled by the logistic equation[20]

where

  • = the population after time t;
  • = time a population grows;
  • = the relative growth rate coefficient;
  • = the carrying capacity of the population; defined by ecologists as the maximum population size that a particular environment can sustain.[19]

As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:

,

where and is the initial population at time 0.

Human population growth rate
External video
Food Production and Population Growth - Daniel Quinn
Further information: Total fertility rate, Estimates of historical world population, and Population dynamics
See also: Human overpopulation and Overshoot (population)
A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman according to the CIA World Factbook's 2016 data
Estimates of population evolution in different continents between 1950 and 2050 according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.
World population growth rates between 1950 and 2050

In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[21] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively.[22] The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution.[23]

The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million.[21] Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in poverty-stricken countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.[24]

In some countries the population is declining, especially in Eastern Europe, mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of AIDS-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also experience population decline.[25] Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.[26]

The United Nations Population Division projects world population to reach 11.2 billion by the end of the 21st century, but Sanjeev Sanyal has argued that global fertility will fall below the replacement rate in the 2020s and that world population will peak below 9 billion by 2050, followed by a long decline.[27] A 2014 study in Science concludes that the global population will reach 11 billion by 2100, with a 70% chance of continued growth into the 22nd century.[28]

For further information regarding Human Population Growth, one could see the works of Al Bartlett, Hans Rosling, John Lovelock, Paul R. Ehrlich as well as Cleric Thomas Robert Malthus.

Growth by country
Main article: List of countries by population growth rate

According to United Nations population statistics, the world population grew by 30%, or 1.6 billion humans, between 1990 and 2010.[29] In number of people the increase was highest in India (350 million) and China (196 million). Population growth rate was among highest in the United Arab Emirates (315%) and Qatar (271%).[29]

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries
Rank Country Population
1990		 Population
2010		 Estimated population

2018[30]

 Growth (%)
1990–2010		 Growth (%) 2010–2018
World 5,306,425,000 6,895,889,000 7,503,828,180 30.0%
1 China 1,139,060,000 1,341,335,000 1,384,688,986 17.1% 3.23%
2 India 873,785,000 1,224,614,000 1,296,834,042 40.2% 5.90%
3 United States 253,339,000 310,384,000 329,256,465 22.5% 6.08%
4 Indonesia 184,346,000 239,871,000 262,787,403 30.1% 9.55%
5 Brazil 149,650,000 194,946,000 208,846,892 30.3% 7.13%
6 Pakistan 111,845,000 173,593,000 207,862,518 55.3% 19.74%
7 Nigeria 97,552,000 158,423,000 203,452,505 62.4% 28.42%
8 Bangladesh 105,256,000 148,692,000 159,453,001 41.3% 7.24%
9 Russia 148,244,000 142,958,000 142,122,776 -3.6% -0.58%
10 Japan 122,251,000 128,057,000 126,168,156 4.7% -1.48%

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc. in some of the less fortunate countries. For example, the population of Chad has ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009,[31] further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population.

The following table gives some example countries:

Example nation1967 population1990 population1994 population2002 population2008 populationLife expectancy in years (2008)Total population growth from 1960s to 2007- 2011
Eritrea*N/A*N/A*3,437,000[32]4,298,2695,673,520[33]61[34]2,236,520
Ethiopia*23,457,000*[35]50,974,000* [36]54,939,000[32]67,673,031(2003)79,221,000[37]55[34]55,764,000
Sudan14,355,000†[35]25,204,000† [36]27,361,000†[32]38,114,160 (2003)†42,272,000†[33]50†[34]27,917,000
Chad3,410,000[35]5,679,000[36]6,183,000[32]9,253,493(2003)10,329,208 (2009)[31]47[34]6,919,205
Niger3,546,000[35]7,732,000[36]8,846,000[32]10,790,352 (2001)15,306,252 (2009)[38]44[34]11,760,252
Nigeria61,450,000[35]88,500,000[36]108,467,000[32]129,934,911158,259,000[33]47[34]96,809,000
Mali4,745,000[35]8,156,000[36]10,462,000[32]11,340,48014,517,176(2010)[39]50[34]9,772,176
Mauritania1,050,000[35]2,025,000 [36]2,211,000[32]2,667,859 (2003)3,291,000 (2009)[31]54[34]2,241,000
Senegal3,607,000[35]7,327,000[36]8,102,000[32]9,967,21513,711,597 (2009)[40]57[34]10,104,597
Gambia343,000[35]861,000[36]1,081,000[32]1,367,124 (2000)1,705,000[33]55[34]1,362,000
Algeria11,833,126 (1966)[35]25,012,000[36]27,325,000 [32]32,818,500 (2003)34,895,000[37][41]74[34]23,061,874
The DRC/Zaire16,353,000[35]35,562,000[36]42,552,000[32]55,225,478 (2003)70,916,439 [37][42]54[34]54,563,439
Egypt30,083,419 (1966)[35]53,153,000[36]58,326,000[32]70,712,345 (2003)79,089,650 [37][43]72[34]49,006,231
Réunion (overseas region of France)418,000[35]N/A[36]N/A[32]720,934 (2003)827,000 (2009) [33]N/A[34]409,000
The Falkland Islands (British Overseas Territory)2,500[35]N/A[36]N/A[32]2,967 (2003)3,140(2010)[44] N/A[34]640
Chile8,935,500[35]13,173,000[36]13,994,000[32]15,116,43517,224,200 (2011)77[34]8,288,700
Colombia19,191,000[35]32,987,000[36]34,520,000[32]41,088,22745,925,397 (2010)[45]73[34]26,734,397
Brazil85,655,000[35]150,368,000[36]153,725,000[32]174,468,575 (2000)190,732,694 (2010) [46]72[34]105,077,694
Mexico45,671,000[35]86,154,000[36]93,008,000[32]103,400,165 (2000)112,322,757 (2010)[47]76[34]66,651,757
Fiji476,727 (1966)[35]765,000[36]771,000[32]844,330 (2001)849,000[41] (2010)70[34]372,273
Nauru6,050 (1966)[35]10,000[36]N/A[32]12,3299,322 (2011)[48]N/A[34]3,272
Jamaica1,876,000[35]2,420,000[36]2,429,000[32]2,695,867 (2003)2,847,232[49](2010)74[34]971,232
Australia11,540,764 (1964)[35]17,086,000[36]17,843,000[32]19,546,792 (2003)25,777,351[50] (2010)82[34]10,066,508
Albania1,965,500 (1964)[35]3,250,000[36]3,414,000[32]3,510,4842,986,952 (July 2010 est.)[31][51]78[34]1,021,452
Poland31,944,000[35]38,180,000[36]38,554,000[32]38,626,349 (2001)38,192,000 (2010)[52]75[34]6,248,000
Hungary10,212,000[35]10,553,000[36]10,261,000[32]10,106,0179,979,000 (2010)[53]73[34]-142,000
Bulgaria8,226,564 (1965)[35]8,980,000[36]8,443,000[32]7,707,495(2000)7,351,234 (2011)[54]73[34]-875,330
United Kingdom55,068,000 (1966)[35]57,411,000[36]58,091,000[32]58,789,19462,008,048 (2010)[55]79[34]7,020,048
Ireland2,884,002 (1966)[35]3,503,000[36]3,571,000[32]3,840,838 (2000)4,470,700[56] (2010)78[34]1,586,698
People's Republic of China720,000,000[35]1,139,060,000[36]1,208,841,000[32]1,286,975,468 (2004)1,339,724,852 (2010)[57]73[34]619,724,852
Japan‡98,274,961 (1965)[35]123,537,000[36]124,961,000[32]127,333,002127,420,000 (2010)[58]82[34]28,123,865
India#511,115,000[35]843,931,000[36]918,570,000[32]1,028,610,328 (2001)1,210,193,422 (2011)[59]69[34]699,078,422
Singapore1,956,000 (1967)[35]3,003,000 (1990) [36]2,930,000 (1994)[32]4,452,732 (2002)5,076,700 (2010)[60]82 (2008)[34]3,120,700
Monaco24,000 (1967)[35]29,000 (1990) [36]N/A (1994)[32]31,842 (2000)35,586[61] (2010)(2008)[34]11,586
Greece8,716,000 (1967)[35]10,123,000 (1990) [36]10,426,000 (1994)[32]10,964,020 (2001)[62]11,305,118 (2011)[63]N/A (2008)[34]2,589,118
Faroe Islands (Danish dependency)38,000 (1967)[35]N/A (1990) [36]N/A (1994)[32]46,345 (2000)48,917 (2010) [64]N/A (2008)[34]18,917
Liechtenstein20,000 (1967)[35]29,000 (1990) [36]N/A (1994)[32]33,307 (2000)35,789 (2009)[65](2008)[34]15,789
South Korea29,207,856 (1966)[35]42,793,000 (1990) [36]44,453,000 (1994)[32]48,324,000 (2003)48,875,000 (2010) [66](2008)[34]19,667,144
North Korea12,700,000 (1967)[35]21,773,000 (1990) [36]23,483,000 (1994)[32]22,224,195 (2002)24,051,218 (2010)[67](2008)[34]11,351,218
Brunei107,200 (1967)[35]266,000 (1990) [36]280,000 (1994)[32]332,844 (2001)401,890 (2011)[68]76 (2008)[34]306,609
Malaysia10,671,000 (1967)[35]17,861,000 (1990) [36]19,489,000 (1994)[32]21,793,293 (2002)27,565,821 (2010)[69](2008)[34]16,894,821
Thailand32,680,000 (1967)[35]57,196,000 (1990) [36]59,396,000 (1994)[32]60,606,947 (2000)[70]63,878,267 (2011)[71](2008)[34]31,198,267
Lebanon2,520,000 (1967)[35]2,701,000 (1990) [36]2,915,000 (1994)[32]3,727,703[72] (2003)4,224,000[33] (2009)- (2008)[34]
Syria5,600,000 (1967)[35]12,116,000 (1990) [36]13,844,000 (1994)[32]17,585,540 (2003)22,457,763 (2011)[73]-(2008)[34]
Bahrain182,00 (1967)[35]503,000 (1990) [36]549,000 (1994)[32]667,238 (2003)1,234,596[74] (2010)75 (2008)[34]
Sri Lanka11,741,000 (1967)[35]16,993,000 (1990) [36]17,685,000 (1994)[32]19,607,519 (2002)20,238,000[41] (2009)- (2008)[34]
Switzerland6,050,000 (1967)[35]6.712,000 (1990) [36]6,994,000 (1994)[32]7,261,200 (2002)7,866,500[75] (2010)- (2008)[34]
Luxembourg335,000 (1967)[35]381,000 (1990) [36]401,000 (1994)[32]439,539 (2001)511,840 (2011)[76]- (2008)[34]
Romania19,105,056 (1966)[35]23,200,000 (1990)[36]22,736,000 (1994)[32]21,680,974 (2002)21,466,174[77] (2011)- (2008)[34]
Niue (associated state of New Zealand)1,900 (1966)[35]N/A (1990)[36]N/A (1994)[32]2,134 (2002)1,398 (2009)[78]N/A (2008)[34]-502
Tokelau (New Zealand territory)5,194 (1966)[35]N/A (1990)[36]N/A (1994)[32]1,445 (2001)1,416 (2009)N/A (2008)[34]-3,778
Jamaica1,876,000 (1967)[35]2,420,000 (1990) [36]2,429,000 (1994)[32]2,695,867 (2003)2,847,232[49] (2010)74 (2008)[34]971,232
Argentina32,031,000 (1967)[35]32,322,000 (1990)[36]34,180,000 (1994)[32]37,812,817 (2002)40,091,359 (2010)74 (2008)[34]8,060,359
France49,890,660 (1967)[35]56,440,000 (1990)[36]57,747,000 (1994)[32]59,551,000 (2001)63,136,180 (2011)[79]81 (2008)[34]
Italy52,334,000 (1967)[35]57,662,000 (1990)[36]57,193,000 (1994)[32]56,995,744 (2002)60,605,053[80] (2011)80 (2008)[34]
Mauritius774,000 (1967)[35]1,075,000 (1990)[36]1,104,000 (1994)[32]1,179,137 (2000)1,288,000 (2009)[41]75 (2008)[34]514,000
Guatemala4,717,000 (1967)[35]9,197,000 (1990)[36]10,322,000 (1994)[32]12,974,361 (2000)13,276,517 (2009)70 (2008)[34]8,559,517
Cuba8,033,000 (1967)[35]10,609,000 (1990)[36]10,960,000 (1994)[32]11,177,743 (2002)11,239,363 (2009)[81]77 (2008)[34]
Barbados246,000 (1967)[35]255,000 (1990) [36]261,000 (1994)[32]250,012 (2001)284,589 (2010)[31]73 (2008)[34]18,589
Samoa131,377 (1967)[35]164,000 (1990) [36]164,000 (1994)[32]178,173 (2003)179,000 (2009)[33]N/A (2008)[34]
Sweden7,765,981 (1967)[35]8,559,000 (1990) [36]8,794,000 (1994)[32]8,920,705 (2002)9,354,462 (2009)81 (2008)[34]
Finland4,664,000 (1967)[35]4,986,000 (1990) [36]5,095,000 (1994)[32]5,175,783 (2002)5,374,781 (2010)N/A (2008)[34]
Portugal9,440,000 (1967)[35]10,525,000 (1990)[36]9,830,000 (1994)[32]10,355,824 (2001)10,647,763[82] (2011)N/A (2008)[34]
Austria7,323,981 (1967)[35]7,712,000 (1990) [36]8,031,000 (1994)[32]8,032,926 (2001)8,404,252 (2011)N/A (2008)[34]
Libya1,738,000 (1967)[35]4,545,000 (1990)[36]5,225,000(1994)[32]5,499,074 (2002)6,420,000 (2009)[33]77 (2008)[34]
Peru12,385,000 (1967)[35]21,550,000 (1990)[36]23,080,000(1994)[32]27,949,639 (2002)29,496,000 (2010)70 (2008)[34]
Guinea Bissau528,000 (1967)[35]965,000 (1990) [36]1,050,000 (1994)[32]1,345,479 (2002)1,647,000[33] (2009)48 (2008)[34]
Angola5,203,066 (1967)[35]10,020,000 (1990)[36]10,674,000 (1994)[32]10,766,500 (2003)18,498,000[41][83] (2009)38 (2008)[34]
Equatorial Guinea277,000 (1967)[35]348,000 (1990)[36]389,000 (1994)[32]474,214 (2000)676,000 (2009)[41]61 (2008)[34]
Benin2,505,000 (1967)[35]4,736,000 (1990)[36]5,246,000 (1994)[32]8,500,500 (2002)8,791,832 (2009)59 (2008)[34]
Laos2,770,000 (1967)[35]4,139,000 (1990)[36]4,742,000 (1994)[32]5,635,967 (2002)6,800,000[84] (2011)56 (2008)[34]
Nepal10,500,000 (1967)[35]18,961,000 (1990)[36]21,360,000 (1994)[32]25,284,463 (2002)29,331,000[41] (2009)- (2008)[34]
Iran25,781,090 (1966)[35]54,608,000 (1990)[36]59,778,000 (1994)[32]66,622,704 (2002)75,330,000 (2010)[85]71 (2008)[34]49,548,910
Canada20,014,880 (1966)[35]26,603,000 (1990)[36]29,248,000(1994)[32]31,081,900 (2001)32,623,490 (2011)[86]81 (2008)[34]
United States199,118,000 (1967)[35]249,995,000 (1990)[36]260,650,00(1994)[32]281,421,906 (2000)308,745,538 (2010)[87]78 (2008)[34]
Uganda7,931,000 (1967)[35]18,795,000 (1990)[36]20,621,000 (1994)[32]24,227,297 (2002)32,369,558 (2009)52 (2008)[34]
Notes
* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991.
† Split into the nations of Sudan and South Sudan during 2011.
‡ Japan and the Ryukyu Islands merged in 1972.
# India and Sikkim merged in 1975.
Population growth 1990–2012 (%)[88]
Africa73.3%
Middle East68.2%
Asia (excl. China)42.8%
China19.0%
OECD Americas27.9%
Non-OECD Americas36.6%
OECD Europe11.5%
OECD Asia Oceania11.1%
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia-0.8%
Nilkhet Mor in Dhaka by Nahid 02. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world.

Growth comparison between Africa and Europe

Population growth rates vary by world region, with the highest growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Europe. For example, from 1950 to 2010, Sub-Saharan Africa grew over four and a half times, from about 186 million to 856 million. On the other hand, Europe only increased by 35%, from 547 million in 1950 to 738 million in 2010. As a result of these varying population growths, Sub-Saharan Africa changed from 7.4% of world population in 1950 to 12.4% in 2010, while Europe declined from 22% to 11% in the same time period.[89]

Into the future
Main article: Projections of population growth
Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE to 2000 CE.
The majority of world population growth today is occurring in less developed countries.

According to the UN's 2017 revision to its population projections, world population is projected to reach 11.2 billion by 2100 compared to 7.6 billion in 2017.[90][91] In 2011, Indian economist Sanjeev Sanyal disputed the UN's figures and argued that birth rates will fall below replacement rates in the 2020s. According to his projections, population growth will be only sustained till the 2040s by rising longevity, but will peak below 9 bn by 2050.[27] Conversely, a 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division projected that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[92] One of its authors, Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology, says "The consensus over the past 20 years or so was that world population, which is currently around 7 billion, would go up to 9 billion and level off or probably decline. We found there’s a 70 percent probability the world population will not stabilize this century. Population, which had sort of fallen off the world’s agenda, remains a very important issue."[93]

The German Foundation for World Population reported in December 2019 that the global human population grows by 2.6 people every second, and could reach 8 billion by 2023.[94]

See also

References
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