2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district

November 3, 2020

Nominee Matt Rosendale Kathleen Williams Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 339,169 262,340 Percentage 56.4% 43.6%

County results Rosendale:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Williams:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Greg Gianforte Republican Elected U.S. Representative Matt Rosendale Republican

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018,[1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.[2]

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[3]

In the general election, Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams,

Republican primary

Nominee

• Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2014[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Joe Dooling, rancher and chair of the Lewis and Clark County Republican Party[5]
• John Evankovich, electrical contractor[6]
• Debra Lamm, former chair of the Montana Republican Party and former state representative[7]
• Mark McGinley, youth counselor and retired Montana National Guard veteran[6]
• Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, former state senator, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012, candidate for the U.S. House in 2014[8]

Declined

• Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for governor)[2]
• Albert Olszewski, state senator (running for governor)[9]
• Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012, and former Lieutenant Governor of Montana[10]

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale

Executive Officials

• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[11]

Individuals

• Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald Trump[12]
• Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host[13]

Organizations

• Club for Growth[14]
• Crow Tribe of Montana[15]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Russell Fagg	Joe Dooling	Timothy Johnson	Al Olszewski	Denny Rehberg	Matt Rosendale	Corey Stapleton	Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 7–16, 2019	99 (LV)	–	–	1%	<1%	–	–	32%	22%	44%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1]	February 24–26, 2019	501 (V)	± 4.4%	24%	–	–	–	–	57%	–	15%
				–			–	39%	46%	–	13%
				18%			10%	–	51%	–	18%
				15%			–	31%	37%	–	16%
				17%			–	–	48%	19%	16%

Results

Republican primary results[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	104,575	48.31%
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	71,902	33.21%
	Republican	Debra Lamm	14,462	6.68%
	Republican	Joe Dooling	13,726	6.34%
	Republican	Mark McGinley	7,818	3.61%
	Republican	John Evankovich	3,983	1.84%
Total votes			216,466	100.0%

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018[17]

Eliminated in primary

• Tom Winter, state representative[18]

Withdrew

• Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)[19]

Declined

• Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate[20]
• Rob Quist, musician, member of the Montana Arts Council, nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2017

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams

State politicians

• Dick Barrett, State Representative
• Emma Kerr-Carpenter, State Representative
• Willis Curdy, State Representative
• Ann Mary Dussault, former State Representative and former House Majority Leader
• Jen Gross, State Senator
• Tom Jacobson, State Senator
• Jessica Karjala, State Representative
• Kathy Kelker, State Representative
• Jasmine Krotkov, State Representative
• Margaret McDonald, State Senator, Senate Minority Whip, and former State Representative
• Mary McNally, State Senator
• Diane Sands, State Senator and former State Representative

Local politicians

• Mike Kadas, former mayor of Missoula (1996-2006)

Individuals

• Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district[21]

Local unions

• American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Montana Council 9[22]
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 190[23]
• Montana Federation of Public Employees[24]

Organizations

• EMILY's List
• End Citizens United
• League of Conservation Voters
• Montana Conservation Voters
• Montana Sportsmen Alliance PAC
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
• National Organization for Women
• New Democrat Coalition Action Fund[25]

Tom Winter

Individuals

• Marianne Williamson, former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate[26]

Organizations

• Blue America[27]
• DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare[28]
• Montana Progressive Democrats[29]
• Our Revolution[30]
• Progressive Rising[31]
• Sunrise Movement - Montana chapter[32]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Matt Rains	Kathleen Williams	Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 7–16, 2019	40 (LV)	–	6%	69%	25%

Results

Democratic primary results[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kathleen Williams	133,436	89.47%
	Democratic	Tom Winter	15,698	10.53%
Total votes			149,134	100.0%

Other candidates

Disqualified

• John Gibney, anti-immigration activist[33][34]

Results

Green primary results[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	John Gibney	690	100.0%
Total votes			690	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[35]	Lean R	October 2, 2020
Inside Elections[36]	Lean R	October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37]	Lean R	October 1, 2020
Politico[38]	Lean R	September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[39]	Lean R	September 25, 2020
RCP[40]	Tossup	October 26, 2020
Niskanen[41]	Lean R	July 26, 2020
The Economist[42]	Tossup	October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Matt Rosendale (R)	Kathleen Williams (D)	Other / Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 19–24, 2020	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	46%	6%[lower-alpha 2]
Siena College/NYT Upshot	October 18–20, 2020	758 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	46%	4%[lower-alpha 3]
Strategies 360	October 15–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	9%[lower-alpha 4]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	October 15–18, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%[lower-alpha 5]	47%	6%[lower-alpha 6]
				45%[lower-alpha 7]	49%	6%[lower-alpha 8]
				49%[lower-alpha 9]	45%	6%[lower-alpha 10]
Montana State University Bozeman	September 14 – October 2, 2020	1,609 (LV)	± 3.9%	48%	46%	6%[lower-alpha 11]
Siena College/NYT Upshot	September 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%	41%	44%	13%[lower-alpha 12]
Expedition Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 2]	August 22–27, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	51%	1%[lower-alpha 13]
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1]	August 9–11, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	45%	4%[lower-alpha 14]
Civiqs/Daily Kos	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	47%	5%[lower-alpha 15]
Public Policy Polling	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	44%	44%	13%[lower-alpha 16]
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 3]	June 24–28, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	47%	6%
University of Montana	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	45%	37%	18%[lower-alpha 17]
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 4]	March 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	45%	45%	9%

Hypothetical polls with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls. with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D) Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Matt Rosendale (R) Corey Stapleton (R) Kathleen Williams (D) Other University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.7% 19.4% 35.8% 9.1%[lower-alpha 18] with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D) Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Matt Rosendale (R) Corey Stapleton (R) Kathleen Williams (D) Other University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 35.3% 19.8% 36.1% 8.8%[lower-alpha 19]

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2020[43]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	339,169	56.39%	+5.51%
	Democratic	Kathleen Williams	262,340	43.61%	-2.64%
Total votes			601,509	100.00%
	Republican hold

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Undecided with 6%
3. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
4. Undecided with 9%
5. Standard VI response
6. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
7. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
8. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
9. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
10. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
11. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
12. Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
13. Undecided with 1%
14. Undecided with 4%
15. Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
16. Undecided with 13%
17. Undecided with 18.4%
18. Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
19. Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
2. Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
3. Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
2. Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
3. "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race". Ballot Access News. September 13, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020.
4. Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
5. Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019). "Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat". MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
6. Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020). "Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race". KTVH.
7. Drake, Phil. "Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
8. Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
9. Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
10. Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019). "2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!". The Montana Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
11. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227705242579501057
12. Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
13. "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/12/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved October 12, 2020.
14. "Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
15. "Crow Tribal Chairman endorses Trump campaign". Indian Country Today. Retrieved September 29, 2020.
16. "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
17. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
18. Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019). "Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
19. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
20. Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
21. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
22. "Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!". Twitter. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
23. "Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress". MT People's Voice. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
24. "MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress". MFPE. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020.
25. Dems, New (July 31, 2020). "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: A year ago, we launched our Frontier program to back bold, pragmatic Democrats who can flip even more seats blue. #NewDems have played a key part in expanding the House battlefield & now we're doubling down & supporting 10 more amazing candidates".
26. Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 – via Twitter.
27. "Getting Shit Done For the People". Blue America. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
28. "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
29. MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020). "Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Twitter.
30. Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution". Retrieved May 21, 2020 – via Facebook.
31. "Endorsements". Progressive Rising. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
32. "We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion". April 30, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020 – via Instagram.
33. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
34. Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
35. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
36. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
37. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
38. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
39. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
40. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
41. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
42. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. October 2, 2020. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
43. "Montana Federal Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Montana", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Montana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Montana". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Montana at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Matt Rosendale (R) for Congress
• Kathleen Williams (D) for Congress