2020 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020.[1]

2020 United States Senate election in Montana
November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Steve Daines Steve Bullock
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 333,174 272,463
Percentage 55.01% 44.99%
County Results
Daines:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Bullock:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Steve Daines
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

Not to be confused with 2020 Montana Senate election.
Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
U. S. Senate elections
U. S. House elections
Special elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Ballot measures
2004
Initiative 96
2016
Initiative 182

Originally this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.[2] However, Steve Bullock, Montana's popular Democratic governor, entered the race on the last day to file, which shifted the dynamics of the contest dramatically, and many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and potential pickup for Democrats,[3] and polling reflected that at a point too, with some polls even showing Bullock leading by 7 points.[4] These predictions ultimately did not come to fruition however, as Daines would wind up winning a second term by a comfortable 10-point margin. This election would ultimately mark the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot.

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[5]

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements
Steve Daines
Businessmen

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 192,942 88.02%
Republican John Driscoll 13,944 6.36%
Republican Daniel Larson 12,319 5.62%
Total votes 219,205 100.00%

Democratic primary

Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.[1]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
  • John Mues, nuclear engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[12]

Withdrawn
  • Jack Ballard, former professor at Montana State University Billings (endorsed Bullock)[13]
  • Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena (endorsed Bullock)[14]
  • Mike Knoles, mathematician, physicist, and data analyst (endorsed Bullock)[15] (remained on ballot)
  • Cora Neumann, public health expert and founder of the Global First Ladies Alliance[16] (endorsed Bullock)[17]
  • Josh Seckinger, fishing guide (endorsed Bullock)[18]

Declined

Endorsements
Steve Bullock
Federal officials

Results
Results by county
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Steve Bullock 144,949 95.45%
Democratic John Mues 3,740 2.46%
Democratic Mike Knoles (withdrawn) 3,165 2.09%
Total votes 151,854 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[24][25] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[26]

Withdrawn

Disqualified
  • Wendie Fredrickson, former audit reviewer for Montana State Department of Public Health and Human Services[7][30][31]

Eliminated in primary
  • Dennis Daneke, retired college professor[32][30]

Results
Results by county
  Fredrickson
  Daneke
  Tie
  No vote
Green primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Wendie Fredrickson 504 66.40%
Green Dennis Daneke 255 33.60%
Total votes 758 100.00%

General election

Debate
Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
Steve Daines (R) Steve Bullock (D)
Montana Broadcasters Association August 8, 2020
9:30pm MDT		 [33] Present Present
Montana Television Network October 10, 2020
5:47pm MDT		 [34] Present Present

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[35] Tossup October 13, 2020
Inside Elections[36] Tossup October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] Lean R October 20, 2020
Daily Kos[38] Lean R October 19, 2020
Politico[39] Tossup October 12, 2020
RCP[40] Tossup October 21, 2020
Niskanen[41] Likely R September 16, 2020
DDHQ[42] Lean R October 14, 2020
538[43] Lean R October 21, 2020
Economist[44] Lean R October 18, 2020
CNN[45] Tossup October 16, 2020

Endorsements
Steve Daines (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Organizations
Steve Bullock (D)
Federal officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Unions

Polling
Graphical summary

Aggregate Polls

Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Steve Bullock Steve Daines Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
Real Clear Politics October 5-24, 2020 October 30, 2020 46.4% 48.8% 4.8% Daines + 2.4
270 to Win October 19, 2020 October 28, 2020 47.2% 48.0% 4.8% Daines + 0.8
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Steve
Daines (R)		 Steve
Bullock (D)		 Other /
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% 3%[lower-alpha 3]
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 1] October 26–27, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 4]
The Progress Campaign (D) October 25, 2020 – (V)[lower-alpha 5] – 48% 48% –
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 6]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 758 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 7]
Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 8]
RMG Research October 15–18, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49%[lower-alpha 9] 47% 5%[lower-alpha 10]
47%[lower-alpha 11] 48% 5%[lower-alpha 12]
50%[lower-alpha 13] 45% 5%[lower-alpha 14]
Public Policy Polling October 9–10, 2020 798 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 15]
Emerson College October 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 3.7% 52% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 16]
Data For Progress (D) September 30 – October 5, 2020 737 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 17]
Montana State University Bozeman September 14 – October 2, 2020 1,609 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 18]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.8% 45% 44% 11%[lower-alpha 19]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% 3%[lower-alpha 20]
Emerson College July 31 – August 2, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 44% 6%[lower-alpha 21]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 3] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 44% 9%[lower-alpha 22]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020 873 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 47% 3%[lower-alpha 23]
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 2020 1,224 (V) ± 2.8% 44% 46% 10%[lower-alpha 24]
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020 517 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 25]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–27, 2020 459 (LV) ± 4.6% 39% 46% 15%[lower-alpha 26]
The Progress Campaign (D) April 14–21, 2020 712 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 4] March 12–13, 2020 903 (V) ± 3.3% 47% 47% 6%
Hypothetical polls with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
candidates		 Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 53%[lower-alpha 27] 47%
Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Democratic
candidates		 Steve
Daines (R)
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 36%[lower-alpha 28] 64%

Results
United States Senate election in Montana, 2020[77]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Steve Daines (incumbent) 333,174 55.01% -2.78%
Democratic Steve Bullock 272,463 44.99% +4.92%
Total votes 605,637 100.00%
Republican hold

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Did not vote and "Don't recall" with 1%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  4. Undecided with 6%
  5. Not yet released
  6. Undecided with 5%
  7. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
  8. Undecided with 5%
  9. Standard VI response
  10. "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  12. "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  14. "Some other candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  15. Undecided with 4%
  16. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  17. Geise (G) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  18. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  19. Fredrickson (G) with 4%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  20. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  21. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  22. "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  23. Undecided with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  24. Undecided with 10%
  25. Undecided with 9.7%
  26. Undecided with 7%; "someone else" with 6%; would not vote with 1%
  27. Steve Bullock with 38%, Wilmot Collins with 4%, Cora Neumann with 7%, Mike Knoles and John Mues with 2%
  28. Jack Ballard with 18%, Wilmot Collins with 9%, John Mues with 9%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization which has exclusively supported Democratic candidates.

References
  1. Drake, Phil. "Daines, Bullock take party primaries in Montana US Senate race". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  2. "Here's who we think will win the 2020 elections in Montana". Politico. November 19, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  3. Nilsen, Ella; Zhou, Li (March 9, 2020). "Gov. Steve Bullock just made the Montana Senate race competitive for Democrats". Vox. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  4. https://helpslab.montana.edu/documents/western_states_2020_coronavirus_survey/PoliticsPolicy_Montana_Frequencies_01May2020_RELEASE.pdf
  5. "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race". Ballot Access News. September 13, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020.
  6. "Hardware store manager enters Montana U.S. Senate race". KPAX. February 23, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  7. Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  8. Trump, Donald Jr. (November 25, 2019). "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". Missoulian. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  9. "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  10. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". Politico.
  11. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
  12. Michels, Holly (July 11, 2019). "Democrat John Mues joins U.S. Senate race". Missoulian.
  13. "Ballard drops from U.S. Senate Race". Great Falls Tribune. September 13, 2019. Retrieved September 14, 2019.
  14. @CollinsWilmot (March 9, 2020). "Thank you, Montana. It's been my honor to run for U.S. Senate. Today I'm suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
  15. https://mobile.twitter.com/KnolesMichael/status/1236997949730611207
  16. Neumann, Cora [@CoraforMT] (March 9, 2020). "Today, I am announcing that I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Senate and supporting Governor Steve Bullock's campaign" (Tweet). Retrieved March 9, 2020 – via Twitter.
  17. @LA_Hagen (March 9, 2020). "With Bullock's entrance into #MTSEN, Democrat Cora Neumann drops out and endorses him" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  18. Stein, Perrin. "Bozeman Senate candidate drops out of race, supports Bullock". Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
  19. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
  20. Punke, Michael [@MPunke] (June 23, 2019). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement" (Tweet). Retrieved June 23, 2019 – via Twitter.
  21. Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
  22. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
  23. "Kamala Harris Endorsements". May 9, 2020.
  24. "Susan Good Geise: Montana Libertarian withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Missoula Current. May 18, 2020.
  25. "Statement from the Montana Libertarian Party as Susan Good Geise withdraws from the US Senate race in Montana". May 16, 2020 – via Facebook.
  26. Dennison, Mike (August 6, 2020). "Libertarians won't have 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in Montana". KTVH. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  27. "Candidate Filing". Montana Secretary of State. March 18, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  28. "Geise enters 2020 run for U.S. Senate as Libertarian". Great Falls Tribune. March 20, 2020.
  29. "May 15, 2020 — Susan Good Geise". Susan Good Geise for US Senate. May 15, 2020.
  30. Holly Michels (May 18, 2020). "Greens say 'Go Green Montana' group isn't affiliated". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  31. Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  32. Dennison, Mike (March 26, 2020). "MT Green Party candidates: One says, 'don't vote for me'". KTVH.
  33. "WATCH: Daines, Bullock square off in first 2020 U.S. Senate Debate". KTVH. August 8, 2020.
  34. "Montana U.S. Senate Debate". C-SPAN. October 10, 2020.
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  36. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  37. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  38. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  39. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  40. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  41. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  42. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
  43. Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
  44. "Why the Democrats are our narrow favourites to win the Senate". The Economist. September 23, 2020. Retrieved September 24, 2020.
  45. "Forecasting the US 2020 elections". CNN.
  46. "Noteworthy endorsements". Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  47. "Steve Daines for Senate". WinRed. Campaign donation page with Nikki Haley endorsement.
  48. "Steve Daines for Senate". WinRed.
  49. "Steve Daines for Senate". WinRed.
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  51. "Steve Daines for Senate". WinRed. Campaign donation page with Ted Cruz endorsement.
  52. "Steve Daines' Ratings and Endorsements". Vote Smart.
  53. "2020 Endorsements". Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  54. "NRA Endorses Steve Daines". Montana Right Now. May 13, 2020.
  55. "Building A Conservative Senate". Senate Conservatives Fund.
  56. "The Win Big Project". The Win Big Project.
  57. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYXJ0MTkuY29tL3RoZS1hbC1mcmFua2VuLXBvZGNhc3Q/episode/Z2lkOi8vYXJ0MTktZXBpc29kZS1sb2NhdG9yL1YwLzdLRUtacnBJV0FZVWlzSWdhN3pneFZBWHF1Y2dMV1JKeGFvYVhHQTl1ZHc?hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwilk5fWj9bsAhXbZc0KHRjaCD4QjrkEegQIDRAF&ep=6
  58. "Gazette endorsement: For U.S. Senate, Steve Bullock". The Billings Gazette. October 25, 2020.
  59. "Montanans should send Governor Bullock to the Senate". Missoulian. October 25, 2020.
  60. "Standard endorsement: For Senate, we recommend Steve Bullock". Montana Standard.
  61. "2020 Endorsements".
  62. Muller, Tiffany (March 9, 2020). "End Citizens United Endorses Governor Steve Bullock for Montana Senate". End Citizens United.
  63. Acosta, Lucas (May 27, 2020). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Gov. Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign.
  64. "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
  65. Connon, Courtnee (May 14, 2020). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters.
  66. Manchester, Julia (June 24, 2020). "Lincoln Project Backs Bullock in Montana Senate Race". The Hill. Retrieved June 25, 2020.
  67. "Home | Montana Firefighters Occupational Health and Safety". MTPROFF.
  68. "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. June 17, 2020.
  69. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  70. "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 14 for House, Senate". nrdcactionfund.org. September 3, 2020.
  71. "2020 Endorsements". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  72. "Communications Workers of America Endorses Governor Steve Bullock (MT) for US Senate". Communications Workers of America. June 11, 2020.
  73. "Endorsements". mtaflcio.com. Montana AFL-CIO.
  74. "2020 Election Endorsements". Montana Federation of Public Employees.
  75. "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  76. "Montana – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  77. "2020 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 2, 2020.

Further reading
Official campaign websites
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