2020 Montana gubernatorial election

The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who was term-limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term in office, was instead seeking Montana's Class II Senate seat.[1][2]

2020 Montana gubernatorial election

November 3, 2020

Nominee Greg Gianforte Mike Cooney Party Republican Democratic Running mate Kristen Juras Casey Schreiner Popular vote 328,548 250,860 Percentage 54.4% 41.6%

County results Gianforte:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Cooney:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election Steve Bullock Democratic Elected Governor Greg Gianforte Republican

Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, was the Democratic nominee, while the Republican nominee was Montana's at-large congressman Greg Gianforte. Gianforte won the election, making him the first Republican governor of Montana since Judy Martz.[3]

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Mike Cooney, Lieutenant Governor of Montana and former Secretary of State of Montana[4]
  • Running mate: Casey Schreiner, Minority Leader of the Montana House of Representatives[5]

Eliminated in primary

• Whitney Williams, businesswoman and daughter of former U.S. Representative Pat Williams[6]
  • Running mate: Buzz Mattelin, farmer and president of the National Barley Growers Association

Withdrawn

• Reilly Neill, former state representative[7][8]
• Casey Schreiner, Minority Leader of the Montana House of Representatives (running for Lieutenant Governor)[9][10]

Declined

• Ryan Busse, businessman[11]
• Wilmot Collins, Mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for the U.S. Senate[12]
• John Heenan, attorney and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018[13]
• Michael Punke, writer and former U.S. Ambassador to the World Trade Organization[14][15]
• Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana (endorsed Williams)[16]
• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018 (running for the U.S. House)[17]

Endorsements

Mike Cooney

Statewide politicians

• Steve Bullock, incumbent Governor of Montana and former candidate for President in 2020[18]
• Jacob Bachmeier, state representative[19]
• Moffie Funk, state representative[19]
• Mary Ann Dunwell, state representative[20]

Federal politicians

• Jon Tester, U.S. Senator (MT)[21]

Organizations

• AFL–CIO Montana[22]
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 190[23]

Whitney Williams

Statewide politicians

• Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana[16]

Local politicians

• John Engen, Mayor of Missoula[24]

Organizations

• EMILY's List[25]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Mike Cooney	Reilly Neill	Casey Schreiner	Whitney Williams	Other / Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 7–16, 2019	40 (LV)	–	19%	2%	6%	11%	62%

Results

Results by county

Cooney

•   Cooney—70–80%
•   Cooney—60–70%
•   Cooney—50–60%

Tie

•   Tie—50–60%

Williams

•   Williams—50–60%

Democratic primary results[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mike Cooney	81,527	54.86%
	Democratic	Whitney Williams	67,066	45.14%
Total votes			148,593	100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

• Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. Representative for Montana's at-large congressional district and nominee for Governor of Montana in 2016[27][28]

• Running mate: Kristen Juras, businesswoman and attorney[29]

Eliminated in primary

• Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[30][27][31][32]

• Running mate: Jon Knokey, former state representative

• Albert Olszewski, state senator[30][27][13][32]

• Running mate: Kenneth Bogner, state senator[33]

Withdrawn

• Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012 and candidate for the U.S. House in 2014 (running for the U.S. House)[34]
• Gary Perry, former state senator[32][35]
• Pete Ziehli[32][35]

Declined

• Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for the U.S. House)[36]
• Ryan Zinke, former United States Secretary of Interior and former U.S. Representative for Montana's at-large congressional district[37][38]

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Individuals

• Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald Trump[39]

Organizations

• Susan B. Anthony List[40]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Tim Fox	Greg Gianforte	Albert Olszewski	Other / Undecided
Montana State University Billings	October 7–16, 2019	99 (LV)	–	25%	33%	9%	32%
Gravis Marketing	August 28–30, 2019	433 (RV)	± 4.7%	29%	56%	15%	–
Moore Information[upper-alpha 1]	July 7–10, 2019	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	17%	56%	5%	23%

Results

Results by county

Gianforte

•   Gianforte—70–80%
•   Gianforte—60–70%
•   Gianforte—50–60%
•   Gianforte—40–50%

Fox

•   Fox—40–50%
•   Fox—50–60%

Republican primary results[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte	119,247	53.44%
	Republican	Tim Fox	60,823	27.26%
	Republican	Albert Olszewski	43,080	19.30%
Total votes			223,150	100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee

• Lyman Bishop, founder and CEO of Hoplite Armor[41]
  • Running mate: John Nesper

Withdrawn

• Ron Vandevender, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2016 and nominee for governor in 2012[42][43][44]

Disqualified

• Robert Barb[41][45]
  • Running mate: Joshua Thomas

Results

Green primary results[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Robert Barb	713	100.0%
Total votes			713	100.0%

General election

Debate

Host	Date & Time	Link(s)	Participants
			Mike Cooney (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)
Montana PBS	October 6, 2020 6:00pm MDT	[46]	Present	Present

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[47]	Tossup	September 15, 2020
Inside Elections[48]	Tossup	October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49]	Lean R (flip)	November 2, 2020
Politico[50]	Lean R (flip)	September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[51]	Lean R (flip)	July 22, 2020
RCP[52]	Tossup	July 29, 2020
270towin[53]	Tossup	October 16, 2020

Endorsements

Mike Cooney (D)

Statewide and local politicians

• Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana and former candidate for President in 2020[18]
• Jacob Bachmeier, state representative[19]
• Moffie Funk, state representative[19]
• Mary Ann Dunwell, state representative[20]

Federal politicians

• Jon Tester, U.S. Senator (MT)[21]

Organizations

• AFL–CIO Montana[22]
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 190[23]
• Montana Federation of Public Employees[22]

Greg Gianforte (R)

U.S. Presidents

• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States[54]

Individuals

• Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald Trump[39]

Organizations

• Susan B. Anthony List[40]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Mike Cooney (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)	Other / Undecided
Change Research	October 29 – November 2, 2020	920 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	48%	6%[lower-alpha 2]
Montana State University Billings	October 19–24, 2020	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	45%	45%	11%[lower-alpha 3]
Siena College/NYT Upshot	October 18–20, 2020	758 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	48%	8%[lower-alpha 4]
Strategies 360/NBCMT	October 15–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	41%	48%	11%[lower-alpha 5]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	October 15–18, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%[lower-alpha 6]	48%	5%[lower-alpha 7]
				47%[lower-alpha 8]	46%	5%[lower-alpha 9]
				43%[lower-alpha 10]	50%	5%[lower-alpha 11]
Emerson College	October 4–7, 2020	500 (LV)	± 3.7%	41%	54%	5%[lower-alpha 12]
Montana State University Bozeman	September 14 – October 2, 2020	1,605 (LV)	± 3.9%	42%	47%	11%[lower-alpha 13]
Siena College/NYT Upshot	September 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%	39%	45%	16%[lower-alpha 14]
Global Strategy Group (D)	August 18–23, 2020	600 (LV)	–	46%	47%	–
Emerson College	July 31 – August 2, 2020	584 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	50%	10%[lower-alpha 15]
Civiqs/Daily Kos	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	44%	47%	9%[lower-alpha 16]
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 2]	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	42%	46%	12%[lower-alpha 17]
University of Montana	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	36%	46%	18%[lower-alpha 18]
The Progress Campaign (D)	April 14–21, 2020	1,712 (RV)	± 4.6%	41%	43%	16%[lower-alpha 19]

Hypothetical polling with former candidates

University of Montana polls did not account for the withdrawals of Democratic and Republican candidates after they lost their primaries. with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Albert Olszewski, Ron Vandevender and Whitney Williams Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates Ron Vandevender (L) University of Montana February 12–22, 2020 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 35.1%[lower-alpha 20] 61.7%[lower-alpha 21] 1.3% with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Reilly Neill, Albert Olszewski, Gary Perry, Casey Schreiner and Whitney Williams Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019 303 (RV) ± 5.6% 40%[lower-alpha 22] 60.1%[lower-alpha 23] with Tim Fox, Matt Rosendale, Corey Stapleton, Kathleen Williams and Whitney Williams Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 1] Margin of error Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates Other / Undecided University of Montana February 21 – March 1, 2019 293 (RV) ± 5.7% 32.4%[lower-alpha 24] 48.4%[lower-alpha 25] 19.2%[lower-alpha 26]

Results

2020 Montana gubernatorial election[55]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte	328,548	54.43%	+8.08%
	Democratic	Mike Cooney	250,860	41.56%	-8.69%
	Libertarian	Lyman Bishop	24,179	4.01%	+0.61%
Total votes			603,587	100.00%
Turnout			612,075	81.33%
Registered electors			752,538
	Republican gain from Democratic

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Bishop (L) with 3%; "Don't recall" with 2%; Did not vote with 1%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
3. Bishop (L) with 2%; Undecided with 9%
4. Bishop (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
5. Bishop (L) with 4%; Undecided with 7%
6. Standard VI response
7. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
8. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
9. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
10. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
11. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
12. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
13. "Other" with 4% (including Bishop (L) with <2%); Undecided with 7%
14. Bishop (L) with 4%; Barb (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
15. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
16. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
17. Undecided with 12%
18. Undecided with 18.3%
19. Undecided with 16%
20. Cooney with 21%; Williams with 14.1%
21. Gianforte with 35%; Fox with 21.6%; Olszewski with 6.9%
22. Cooney with 23%; Williams with 7.9%; Schreiner with 6%; Neill with 3.1%
23. Gianforte with 35.1%; Fox with 16.1%; Olszewski with 8.1%; Perry with 0.8%
24. Kathleen Williams with 26.6%; Cooney with 5.2%; Whitney Williams with 0.6%
25. Fox with 16.8%; Gianforte with 16.1%; Stapleton with 8%; Rosendale with 7.5%
26. "Someone else" with 15.4%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 3.8%

Partisan clients

1. Commissioned by Gianforte
2. Poll's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

1. Arkin, James (March 9, 2020). "Bullock enters Montana Senate race". POLITICO.
2. Pramuk, Jacob (March 9, 2020). "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock launches Senate bid, a boost in Democrats' push for majority". CNBC.
3. Gstalter, Morgan (January 18, 2021). "GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte wins Montana governor's race". The Hill.
4. "Montana lieutenant governor joins governor's race". Associated Press. July 3, 2019. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
5. Cates-Carney, Corin (February 28, 2020). "Cooney Names Schreiner As Running Mate In Gov Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
6. Volz, Matt (October 3, 2019). "Williams now 4th Democrat in governor's race". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
7. Press, The Associated (January 22, 2020). "Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's race". KECI.
8. Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Democrat Neill drops from Montana governor's race". Great Falls Tribune.
9. Bridge, Thom (February 3, 2020). "Casey Schreiner ends Montana gubernatorial campaign". The Missoulian. Retrieved February 3, 2019.
10. Michels, Holly. "Cooney picks Schreiner as running mate in race for governor". Montana Standard. Retrieved 29 February 2020.
11. Kondik, Kyle (December 6, 2018). "Governors 2019-2020: Democrats try to hold the line in red-state battles". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2018.
12. Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
13. Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
14. Lippman, Daniel (May 10, 2019). "'The Revenant' author considering run for Montana Senate or governor". Politico. Retrieved May 10, 2019.
15. Punke, Michael (2019-06-23). "As my friends and family know, I have been considering a run for Montana's senator or governor. I'm grateful for the encouragement I received. I have decided not to seek election this cycle. For my family &me, it's not the right time. Thx to all who offered advice &encouragement". @MPunke. Retrieved 2019-06-23.
16. Ambarian, Jonathon (February 27, 2020). "Democratic gubernatorial candidate Williams gets endorsement from former Gov. Schweitzer". KPAX.
17. "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
18. Cates-Carney, Corin (October 25, 2019). "Gov. Bullock Endorses Lt. Gov. Cooney In Gubernatorial Race". mtpr.org. Montana Public Radio.
19. "Mike Cooney". ballotpedia.org.
20. "Rep. Dunwell endorses Cooney for governor". cooneyformontana.com. January 18, 2020.
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22. "AFL-CIO endorses Cooney, Schreiner=". newsbreak.com.
23. "Mike Cooney's Momentum Grows with Three Big Labor Endorsements". cooneyformontana.com. April 8, 2020.
24. Engen, John (November 12, 2019). "Guest view: Missoula's mayor on why Whitney Williams should be Montana's next governor". Montana Standard.
25. Schriock, Stephanie (October 8, 2019). "EMILY's List Endorses Whitney Williams for Montana Governor". emilyslist.org. EMILY's List.
26. "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
27. "Gianforte files fundraising paperwork to run for governor in 2020". KTVH.com. 2019-06-06. Retrieved 2019-06-07.
28. Michels, Holly K. (June 7, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record.
29. Drake, Phil (March 1, 2020). "Gianforte names Great Falls attorney Kristen Juras as lieutenant governor running mate". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
30. "Montana's 2020 governor's race: Buckle up". KTVQ.com. 2019-03-28. Retrieved 2019-03-28.
31. Dennison, Mike (January 24, 2019). "Attorney General Fox launches gubernatorial bid". KRTV. Retrieved January 24, 2019.
32. [email protected], PATRICK REILLY. "Fox unfazed by prospect that Gianforte may enter Montana's race for governor". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved 2019-03-25.
33. Drake, Phil (October 4, 2019). "Olszewski picks Bogner to run as lieutenant governor". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
34. Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
35. "Fox has 212k in bank as GOP governor's race narrows". fox28spokane.com. July 5, 2019. Retrieved July 9, 2019.
36. Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
37. "Zinke says he won't run for Montana governor in 2020". Great Falls Tribune. Associated Press. November 9, 2018. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
38. Lefebvre, Ben (November 8, 2018). "Zinke prepares to leave Trump's Cabinet". Politico. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
39. Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
40. "Greg Gianforte".
41. Michels, Holly K. (March 10, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Bozeman Daily Chronicle.
42. "Former Democratic legislator to run for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Associated Press. June 10, 2019. Retrieved June 10, 2019.
43. Drake, Phil (February 9, 2020). "So what would you do? Candidates asked about Garcia". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved April 24, 2020.
44. Maag, Brittony (March 26, 2020). "Seven candidates file to run for governor of Montana". Ballotpedia News. Retrieved April 24, 2020.
45. Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
46. "Montana Gubernatorial Debate". C-SPAN. 2020-10-06.
47. "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2019.
48. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
49. "2020 Governor". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2019-08-22. Retrieved 2019-09-26.
50. "We rated every gubernatorial race in 2020. Here's who we think will win". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
51. "2020 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 1, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2020.
52. "2020 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. June 13, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
53. "2020 Gubernatorial Elections Map". 270towin.
54. https://amp/s/amp.greatfallstribune.com/amp/3510309001
55. "Montana Statewide Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Lyman Bishop (L) for Governor
• Mike Cooney (D) for Governor
• Greg Gianforte (R) for Governor