2011 Ceuta Assembly election

The 2011 Ceuta Assembly election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 5th Assembly of the Autonomous City of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in thirteen autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2011 Ceuta Assembly election

22 May 2011
All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	60,357 4.9%
Turnout	31,003 (51.4%) 8.9 pp
Leader Juan Jesús Vivas Mohamed Alí José Antonio Carracao Party PP Caballas PSOE Leader since October 1999 14 March 2011 13 December 2008 Last election 19 seats, 65.2% 4 seats, 20.9%[lower-alpha 1] 2 seats, 6.7% Seats won 18 4 3 Seat change 1 0 1 Popular vote 20,054 4,407 3,601 Percentage 65.2% 14.3% 11.7% Swing 0.0 pp 6.6 pp 5.0 pp
Mayor-President before election Juan Jesús Vivas PP Elected Mayor-President Juan Jesús Vivas PP

The People's Party (PP) has dominated recent elections to the Assembly, winning 19 of the seats in the 2003 and 2007 elections and polls suggested incorrectly that the PP was likely to increase its majority. The second largest party, the Ceutan Democratic Union (UCDE), formed an electoral alliance with the Socialist Party of the People of Ceuta (PSPC) under the name Caballas Coalition (Caballas). UCDE did not repeat its alliance with United Left of Ceuta (IU), that decided not to take part in the election. The third largest party, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), was predicted incorrectly to overtake the Caballas Coalition, according to opinion polls.

Juan Jesús Vivas Lara (PP) retained the post of Mayor-President, held since 2001.

Electoral system

The Assembly of Ceuta was the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allowed Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[1][2][3]

The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][2][3]

The Mayor-President was indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause required that mayoral candidates earned the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly was to be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[1][2]

Parties and leaders

Below is a list of the main parties and coalitions which contested the election:

Parties and coalitions		Ideology	Candidate
	People's Party (PP)	Conservatism, Christian democracy	Juan Jesús Vivas
	Caballas Coalition (Caballas)	Regionalism	Mohamed Alí
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	Social democracy	José Antonio Carracao

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					Lead
2011 Assembly election	22 May 2011	N/A	51.4	65.2 18	14.3 4	11.7 3	2.7 0	50.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1][p 2]	11–14 Apr 2011	300	?	70.1 19/20	9.4 2	13.6 3/4	–	56.5
CIS[p 3][p 4]	13 Apr 2011	300	?	68.9 21	7.0 2	9.4 2	2.0 0	59.5
Sigma Dos/PP[p 5][p 6]	21 Jan 2011	1,000	?	73.0– 74.0 20	? 2	? 3	–	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7]	28–29 Dec 2010	300	?	71.4 19/20	9.6 2	13.5 3/4	–	57.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 8]	26–27 May 2010	300	?	74.3 21	9.6 2	8.5 2	–	64.7
Mercociudad/PP[p 9][p 10]	6 May 2010	500	?	? 19	? 3/4	? 2/3	–	?
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	N/A	31.6	59.5 16	–	32.7 9	3.6 0	26.8
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	N/A	63.3	55.1 14	–	40.5 11	1.3 0	14.6
2007 Assembly election	27 May 2007	N/A	60.3	65.2 19	16.4 4	8.7 2	–	48.8

Results

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Assembly of Ceuta election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	20,054	65.16	–0.02	18	–1
	Caballas Coalition (Caballas)^1	4,407	14.32	–6.60	4	±0
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	3,601	11.70	+3.05	3	+1
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	818	2.66	New	0	±0
	Democratic and Social Party of Ceuta (PDSC)	720	2.34	–1.31	0	±0
	The Greens–Green Group of Ceuta (LV–GV)	570	1.85	+0.90	0	±0
	The Phalanx (FE)	138	0.45	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		468	1.52	+0.86
Total		30,776			25	±0
Valid votes		30,776	99.27	–0.16
Invalid votes		227	0.73	+0.16
Votes cast / turnout		31,003	51.37	–8.92
Abstentions		29,354	49.63	+8.92
Registered voters		60,357
Sources[4][5][6]

Popular vote PP   65.16% Caballas   14.32% PSOE   11.70% UPyD   2.66% PDSC   2.34% LV–GV   1.85% FE   0.45% Blank ballots   1.52%

Seats PP   72.00% Caballas   16.00% PSOE   12.00%

Notes

1. Aggregated data for UDCE–IU and PSPC in the 2007 election.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "El Mundo 25-27 de Abril 2011". El Mundo (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
2. "Ascenso del PSOE a costa del UDCE en Ceuta (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 27 April 2011.
3. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2011. Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta (Estudio nº 2883. Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
4. "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
5. "Un sondeo del PP nacional da a Vivas 20 escaños en Ceuta". El Faro Digital (in Spanish). 21 January 2011. Archived from the original on 26 February 2013.
6. "3 de cada 4 ceutíes votaría por Vivas (PP) en Ceuta (sondeo propio)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 26 January 2011.
7. "El PSOE se afianza como principal partido de la oposición en Ceuta (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 January 2011. Archived from the original on 10 January 2011.
8. "Caso electoral histórico en más comunidades autónomas (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 1 June 2010. Archived from the original on 23 December 2010.
9. "El PP repetiría 19 diputados en las próximas elecciones según una encuesta de Mercociudad". Ceutaldia (in Spanish). 6 May 2010.
10. "El PP repetiría 19 diputados en las próximas elecciones en Ceuta (Mercociudad)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 16 December 2010.

Other

1. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
2. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
3. "Statute of Autonomy of Ceuta of 1995". Law No. 1 of 13 March 1995. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 April 2018.
4. "Electoral Results Consultation. Municipal. May 2011. City of Ceuta". Ministry of the Interior (in Spanish). Retrieved 3 April 2018.
5. "Local election results, 22 May 2011, in Salamanca, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Segovia, Seville, Soria, Tarragona, Teruel, Toledo, Valencia, Valladolid, Biscay, Zamora, Zaragoza, Ceuta and Melilla provinces" (PDF). juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 April 2018.
6. "Elecciones Municipales y Autonómicas en Ceuta (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 April 2018.