2015 Ceuta Assembly election

The 2015 Ceuta Assembly election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 6th Assembly of the Autonomous City of Ceuta. All 25 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in thirteen autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2015 Ceuta Assembly election

24 May 2015
All 25 seats in the Assembly of Ceuta 13 seats needed for a majority
Registered	61,782 2.4%
Turnout	29,671 (48.0%) 3.4 pp
Leader Juan Jesús Vivas José Antonio Carracao Mohamed Alí Party PP PSOE Caballas Leader since October 1999 13 December 2008 14 March 2011 Last election 18 seats, 65.2% 3 seats, 11.7% 4 seats, 14.3% Seats won 13 4 4 Seat change 5 1 0 Popular vote 13,372 4,104 3,881 Percentage 45.7% 14.0% 13.3% Swing 19.5 pp 2.3 pp 1.0 pp   Leader Fátima Hamed Hossain Javier Varga Party MDyC C's Leader since 27 October 2014 23 February 2015 Last election Did not contest Did not contest Seats won 3 1 Seat change 3 1 Popular vote 3,265 1,758 Percentage 11.2% 6.0% Swing New party New party
Mayor-President before election Juan Jesús Vivas PP Elected Mayor-President Juan Jesús Vivas PP

Electoral system

The Assembly of Ceuta was the top-tier administrative and governing body of the autonomous city of Ceuta. Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered and residing in the municipality of Ceuta and in full enjoyment of their political rights, as well as resident non-national European citizens and those whose country of origin allowed Spanish nationals to vote in their own elections by virtue of a treaty.[1][2][3]

The 25 members of the Assembly of Ceuta were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[1][2][3]

The Mayor-President was indirectly elected by the plenary assembly. A legal clause required that mayoral candidates earned the vote of an absolute majority of members, or else the candidate of the most-voted party in the assembly was to be automatically appointed to the post. In case of a tie, a toss-up would determine the appointee.[3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in Ceuta. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[1][2]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 13 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					PDSC	LV–GV			MDyC	Lead
2015 Assembly election	24 May 2015	N/A	48.0	45.7 13	13.3 4	14.0 4	1.1 0	1.8 0	1.7 0	–	6.0 1	11.2 3	31.7
Infortécnica/Ceuta TV[p 1][p 2]	12–15 May 2015	371	?	58.3 16/18	14.3 3/4	11.7 2/3	–	–	–	–	9.3 2/3	–	44.0
Insobel/El Pueblo[p 3]	22 Apr–8 May 2015	600	?	? 17/18	? 2	? 4/5	–	–	–	–	? 1	? 0/1	?
CIS[p 4][p 5]	23 Mar–19 Apr 2015	300	?	49.5 14	11.2 3	22.6 6	2.0 0	–	–	–	6.8 2	–	26.9
Sociópolis[p 6][p 7]	15 Apr 2015	401	?	52.0 15/16	7.5 2	17.0 4/5	3.5 0	–	–	–	5.7 1/2	5.8 1/2	35.0
Sigma Dos/El Faro[p 8][p 9]	8–14 Apr 2015	1,000	?	54.3 15/16	8.8 2	16.2 4/5	–	–	–	–	9.6 2	4.4 0/1	38.1
Infortécnica/Ceuta TV[p 10][p 11]	6 Nov 2014	406	?	62.0 16/17	16.5 4/5	14.8 3/4	–	–	–	6.7 0/2	–	–	45.5
Sigma Dos/El Faro[p 12][p 13]	23 Sep–7 Oct 2014	1,000	?	54.6 15/16	13.7 4	16.4 4/5	–	–	–	6.2 1	–	–	38.2
2014 EP election	25 May 2014	N/A	25.9	40.3 13	9.0 3	22.5 7	6.8 2	–	–	3.7 0	2.4 0	–	17.8
SyM Consulting[p 14][p 15]	22–27 Jan 2014	372	79.8	41.0 16/17	9.6 3	12.0 4	4.8 0/1	3.6 0	6.0 2	–	–	–	29.0
SyM Consulting[p 16][p 17]	17–22 Sep 2013	432	66.1	42.1 13/14	6.4 3/4	16.2 4/5	8.5 2/3	2.1 0	5.3 0/1	–	–	–	25.9
SyM Consulting[p 18][p 19]	1 Jun 2013	?	58.0	54.1 15/16	16.6 5/6	11.7 3/4	6.0 0/1	0.7 0	4.7 0	–	–	–	37.5
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	N/A	53.2	65.9 19	5.4 1	20.3 5	3.3 0	–	–	–	–	–	45.6
2011 Assembly election	22 May 2011	N/A	51.4	65.2 18	14.3 4	11.7 3	2.7 0	2.3 0	1.9 0	–	–	–	50.9

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Assembly of Ceuta election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	13,372	45.74	–19.42	13	–5
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	4,104	14.04	+2.34	4	+1
	Caballas Coalition (Caballas)	3,881	13.27	–1.05	4	±0
	Movement for Dignity and Citizenship (MDyC)	3,265	11.17	New	3	+3
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	1,758	6.01	New	1	+1
	Democratic and Social Party of Ceuta (PDSC)	531	1.82	–0.52	0	±0
	The Greens–Green Group of Ceuta (LV–GV)	511	1.75	–0.10	0	±0
	United Left (IU)	461	1.58	New	0	±0
	Vox (Vox)	356	1.22	New	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	329	1.13	–1.53	0	±0
	Ceutan Free Party (PLCeutí)	200	0.68	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		468	1.60	+0.08
Total		29,236			25	±0
Valid votes		29,236	98.53	–0.74
Invalid votes		435	1.47	+0.74
Votes cast / turnout		29,671	48.03	–3.34
Abstentions		32,111	51.97	+3.34
Registered voters		61,782
Sources[4][5][6]

Popular vote PP   45.74% PSOE   14.04% Caballas   13.27% MDyC   11.17% C's   6.01% PDSC   1.82% LV–GV   1.75% IU   1.58% Vox   1.22% UPyD   1.13% PLCeutí   0.68% Blank ballots   1.60%

Seats PP   52.00% PSOE   16.00% Caballas   16.00% MDyC   12.00% C's   4.00%

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Ceuta. Del 12 al 15 de mayo de 2015. Estudio de opinión municipal" (PDF). Infortécnica (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
2. "CEUTA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Infortécnica". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
3. "CEUTA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo Insobel". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
4. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Ciudad Autónoma de Ceuta (Estudio nº 3077. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
5. "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
6. "Sociópolis augura otra mayoría del PP (15-16) con la entrada de Ciudadanos y el MDyC en la Asamblea". Ceutaldia (in Spanish). 15 April 2015.
7. "CEUTA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Sociópolis". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 April 2015.
8. "El PSOE se enreda en "el trámite"". El Faro Digital (in Spanish). 22 April 2015. Archived from the original on 22 July 2015.
9. "CEUTA, Abril 2015. Sondeo SigmaDos". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
10. "Ciudad autónoma de Ceuta. Octubre de 2014. Estudio de opinión municipal" (PDF). Infortécnica (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
11. "CEUTA, Octubre 2014. Infortécnica". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
12. "El PP revalidaría en 2015 su mayoría absoluta". El Faro Digital (in Spanish). 6 November 2014. Archived from the original on 16 December 2014.
13. "CEUTA, Octubre 2014. Sigma Dos". Electograph (in Spanish). 6 November 2014.
14. "Estimación Tercera Oleada Ceuta. Enero 2014". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 30 January 2014.
15. "CEUTA, Enero 2014. SyM Consulting". Electograph (in Spanish). 29 January 2014.
16. "Estimación Segunda Oleada Ceuta. Septiembre 2013 (1)". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 September 2013.
17. "Estimación Segunda Oleada Ceuta. Septiembre 2013 (2)". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 September 2013.
18. "Estimación Primera Oleada Ceuta. Mayo 2013". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 1 June 2013.
19. "Comparativa entre oleada de Mayo y Septiembre de estimación directa de voto". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 28 September 2013.

Other

1. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
2. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
3. "Statute of Autonomy of Ceuta of 1995". Law No. 1 of 13 March 1995. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 April 2018.
4. "Local election results, 24 May 2015, in Valencia, Valladolid, Zamora, Zaragoza, Ceuta and Melilla provinces" (PDF). juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 April 2018.
5. "Electoral Results Consultation. Municipal. May 2015. City of Ceuta". Ministry of the Interior (in Spanish). Retrieved 3 April 2018.
6. "Elecciones Municipales y Autonómicas en Ceuta (1979 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 April 2018.