2012 Asturian regional election

The 2012 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Andalusia.

2012 Asturian regional election

25 March 2012
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias 23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	989,993 0.3%
Turnout	506,368 (51.1%) 10.6 pp
Leader Javier Fernández Francisco Álvarez-Cascos Mercedes Fernández Party PSOE FAC PP Leader since 23 October 2010 18 January 2011 14 February 2012 Leader's seat Central Central Central Last election 15 seats, 29.9% 16 seats, 29.7% 10 seats, 20.0% Seats won 17 12 10 Seat change 2 4 0 Popular vote 161,159 124,518 108,091 Percentage 32.1% 24.8% 21.5% Swing 2.2 pp 4.9 pp 1.5 pp   Leader Jesús Iglesias Ignacio Prendes Party IU/IX UPyD Leader since 2007 2 November 2010 Leader's seat Central Central Last election 4 seats, 10.3% 0 seats, 2.4% Seats won 5 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 69,118 18,801 Percentage 13.8% 3.7% Swing 3.5 pp 1.3 pp
Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election Francisco Álvarez-Cascos FAC Elected President Javier Fernández PSOE

This was a snap election held as a result of the incumbent government under Francisco Álvarez-Cascos failing to pass the 2012 budget in the General Junta after just six months in power.[1][2] The Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) under Javier Fernández, which had scored first in votes but second in seats in the previous election, went on to win a decisive victory whereas Álvarez Cascos' Asturias Forum (FAC) lost its seat plurality of seats it had won in the previous election and fell from 16 to 12 seats. The People's Party (PP) was unable to improve on its 2011 results despite a change of leadership and remained stagnant at 10 seats, while United Left (IU/IX) grew from 4 to 5 seats. Voter turnout was the lowest since 1983, as just 51.1% of the electorate cast a ballot.

The election resulted in a draw between the centre-left (PSOE–IU) and centre-right (FAC–PP) blocs after the counting of the vote of those living abroad deprived FAC from a seat in the Eastern District, awarding it to PSOE. Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), which managed to get into parliament after failure in 2011 to do so, became determinant for either bloc to attain an absolute majority, with ensuing negotiations resulting in a Socialist minority government led by Javier Fernández.

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Principality.[3] Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Asturians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[4]

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[5] Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

• Central District (comprising the municipalities of Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco).
• Eastern District (comprising the municipalities of Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa).
• Western District (comprising the municipalities of Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros de Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza).

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[6]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[6][7][8]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years.[3][6][7][8]

The President of the Principality had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[3]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout						Lead
2012 regional election	25 Mar 2012	N/A	51.1	32.1 17	24.8 12	21.5 10	13.8 5	3.7 1	7.3
Celeste-Tel[p 1]	19 Mar 2012	?	?	32.3 14/17	22.3 10/12	23.0 11/13	12.6 4/7	4.2 1/2	9.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 2][p 3]	19 Mar 2012	?	?	? 15/16	? 11/12	? 12/13	? 5/6	? 1/2	?
GAD3/ABC[p 4]	15–16 Mar 2012	800	?	33.3 15/16	21.0 10/11	25.8 12/13	10.1 4/5	3.8 1	7.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 5]	12–15 Mar 2012	1,000	?	27.7 13/14	27.1 13/14	22.2 10/11	14.8 6/7	3.2 1	0.6
Opinión 2000/Cadena SER[p 6][p 7]	9 Mar 2012	400	?	35.1 17/18	20.9 10/11	24.3 12	12.4 5	2.6 0	10.8
Ipsos/La Nueva España[p 8][p 9]	5–9 Mar 2012	1,300	?	29.5 15	22.5 11/12	22.6 11/12	13.0 6	3.8 1	6.9
PP[p 10]	6 Mar 2012	250	?	? 17/18	? 9/10	? 12/14	? 4/5	? 0/1	?
CIS[p 11][p 12]	15–28 Feb 2012	1,800	?	28.2 14	22.7 10/11	24.0 11/12	14.5 7	4.4 2	4.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 13]	15–28 Feb 2012	900	57.6	32.5 16	24.5 12	23.3 12	? 4	? 1	8.0
Low Cost/La Gaceta[p 14]	16–21 Feb 2012	?	?	? 15	? 10	? 15	? 4	? 1	?
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	N/A	64.6	29.3	14.7	35.4	13.2	3.9	6.1
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	61.7	29.9 15	29.7 16	20.0 10	10.3 4	2.4 0	0.2

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	161,159	32.10	+2.18	17	+2
	Forum of Citizens (FAC)	124,518	24.80	–4.86	12	–4
	People's Party (PP)	108,091	21.53	+1.58	10	±0
	United Left of Asturias (IU/IX)	69,118	13.77	+3.49	5	+1
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	18,801	3.74	+1.30	1	+1
	Blank Seats (EB)	4,107	0.82	New	0	±0
	Equo–The Greens of Asturias (Equo–LV)	2,558	0.51	New	0	±0
	Commitment for Asturias (BA–UNA–LV–GV)^1	1,656	0.33	–1.30	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,449	0.29	–0.03	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	782	0.16	–0.08	0	±0
	Independents of Asturias–Hartos.org (IDEAS–Hartos.org)	738	0.15	–0.91	0	±0
	Andecha Astur (Andecha)	674	0.13	New	0	±0
	Asturian Renewal Union (URAS)^2	454	0.09	–0.40	0	±0
	Democratic and Constitutional Party (PDyC)	237	0.05	–0.12	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	183	0.04	±0.00	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	178	0.04	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	100	0.02	+0.02	0	±0
	Auseva Red (Auseva Red)	55	0.01	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	28	0.01	New	0	±0
	Land Party (PT)	16	0.00	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	5	0.00	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		7,166	1.43	–1.17
Total		502,073			45	±0
Valid votes		502,073	99.15	+0.59
Invalid votes		4,295	0.85	–0.59
Votes cast / turnout		506,368	51.15	–10.54
Abstentions		483,625	48.85	+10.54
Registered voters		989,993
Sources[9][10][11][12]

Popular vote PSOE   32.10% FAC   24.80% PP   21.53% IU/IX   13.77% UPyD   3.74% Others   2.63% Blank ballots   1.43%

Seats PSOE   37.78% FAC   26.67% PP   22.22% IU/IX   11.11% UPyD   2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		FAC		PP		IU/IX		UPyD
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Central	31.2	12	24.6	9	20.6	7	15.0	5	4.2	1
Eastern	35.9	2	28.3	2	24.3	1	6.5	−	1.8	−
Western	35.8	3	23.8	1	26.3	2	9.3	−	1.7	−
Total	32.1	17	24.8	12	21.5	10	13.8	5	3.7	1
Sources[9][10][11][12]

Aftermath

After the election, the leader of the Asturian PSOE, Javier Fernández, and incumbent Asturian President, Francisco Álvarez Cascos, were tasked to form a coalition government. The election led to a political impasse as the center-left (PSOE and IU-IX) and center-right coalitions (FAC and PP) each gained 22 seats in the election (23 seats are required for a majority in the 45-seat Assembly). The remaining seat was held by the centrist UPyD, which became the kingmaker in the negotiation.

Coalition talks took almost two months to reach an agreement. One of the main events during the negotiation was the legal battle in the Spanish Constitutional Court over the 45th seat, the assignment of which was delayed by the counting of the ballots of those voting abroad. FAC disputed the seat's assignment to the PSOE and asked for a revote; however, the Constitutional Court rejected the appeal and upheld the seat for the PSOE.[13]

UPyD finally agreed to support a PSOE government, their main reason to do so being the threat by Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro to intervene in Asturian government accounts.[14] On 23 May 2012, PSOE leader Javier Fernández was elected as the new President of the Principality of Asturias with support from IU and UPyD.[15]

Investiture
Ballot →		23 May 2012
Required majority →		23 out of 45
	Javier Fernández (PSOE) • PSOE (17) • IU/IX (5) • UPyD (1)	23 / 45
	Abstentions • FAC (12) • PP (10)	22 / 45
	Absentees	0 / 45
Sources[12]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Barómetro electoral autonómico". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 19 March 2012. Archived from the original on 5 April 2012.
2. "El PP superaría a Cascos". La Razón (in Spanish). 19 March 2012. Archived from the original on 27 April 2012.
3. "El PP supera a Cascos y podrían formar Gobierno juntos (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 19 March 2012. Archived from the original on 30 June 2016.
4. "Cascos se desploma en Asturias y el PP podría gobernar si el apoyara el FAC". ABC (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
5. "Cascos mantiene el pulso y puede gobernar con el PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
6. "El PSOE gana las elecciones en Asturias pero lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 March 2012.
7. "Comunidad Autónoma de Asturias. Resultados Encuesta. Marzo 2012" (PDF). Instituto de Opinión 2000 (in Spanish). 16 March 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 April 2014.
8. "El PSOE ganaría, pero el PP y Foro tendrían mayoría absoluta y gobernarían si pactasen". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
9. "Los sondeos dan al PSOE la victoria en votos y el gobierno a un pacto Foro-PP". RTPA (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
10. "Una mayoría con pacto y por decimales". La Voz de Asturias (in Spanish). 6 March 2012. Archived from the original on 8 March 2012.
11. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2012. Principado de Asturias (Estudio nº 2934. Febrero 2012)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 8 March 2012.
12. "El sondeo del CIS no garantiza al PP la conquista de Andalucía". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 9 March 2012.
13. "El PP alcanza a Cascos en Asturias". La Razón (in Spanish). 5 March 2012. Archived from the original on 7 March 2012.
14. "El PP lidera las encuestas en Asturias y el partido de Cascos se desploma". La Gaceta (in Spanish). 26 February 2012. Archived from the original on 27 February 2012.

Other

1. "Cascos calls snap election in Asturias by surprise for 25 March" (in Spanish). RTVE. 30 January 2012.
2. "Cascos sets snap election and accuses both PP and PSOE of a 'plot'". El Mundo (in Spanish). 30 January 2012.
3. "Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981". Organic Law No. 7 of 30 December 1981. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
4. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
5. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
6. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986". Law No. 14 of 26 December 1986. Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
7. "General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
8. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". www.juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
9. "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results, 25 March 2012" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Asturias. 26 May 2012. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
10. "Electoral Results. General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. 9th Legislature (2012–2015)". www.jgpa.es (in Spanish). General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
11. "Electoral Results. 2012". www.sadei.es (in Spanish). SADEI. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
12. "Elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 September 2017.
13. "One month and 21 days of thrill". El País (in Spanish). 16 May 2012.
14. "The PSOE will govern in Asturias after reaching an agreement with UPyD". El País (in Spanish). 16 May 2012.
15. "Javier Fernández, President of Asturias with the support of IU and UPyD". El País (in Spanish). 23 May 2012.