2015 Aragonese regional election

The 2015 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2015 Aragonese regional election

24 May 2015
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,020,106 0.4%
Turnout	676,654 (66.3%) 1.6 pp
Leader Luisa Fernanda Rudi Javier Lambán Pablo Echenique Party PP PSOE Podemos Leader since 8 November 2008 31 March 2012 14 February 2015 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 30 seats, 39.7% 22 seats, 29.0% Did not contest Seats won 21 18 14 Seat change 9 4 14 Popular vote 183,654 143,096 137,325 Percentage 27.5% 21.4% 20.6% Swing 12.2 pp 7.6 pp New party   Leader Arturo Aliaga Susana Gaspar José Luis Soro Party PAR C's CHA Leader since 29 November 2014 14 March 2015 10 February 2012 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 7 seats, 9.2% Did not contest 4 seats, 8.2% Seats won 6 5 2 Seat change 1 5 2 Popular vote 45,846 62,907 30,618 Percentage 6.9% 9.4% 4.6% Swing 2.3 pp New party 3.6 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon
President before election Luisa Fernanda Rudi PP Elected President Javier Lambán PSOE

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[1][3][5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary status

The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Aragon.[6] The table below shows the status of the different parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	30	30
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	22	22
	Aragonese Parliamentary Group		PAR	7	7
	Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group		CHA	4	4
	United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group		IU	4	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Luisa Fernanda Rudi	Conservatism Christian democracy	39.69%	30		[8]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Javier Lambán	Social democracy	29.02%	22		[9]
	PAR	List Aragonese Party (PAR)		Arturo Aliaga	Regionalism Centrism	9.15%	7		[10]
	CHA	List Aragonese Union (CHA)		José Luis Soro	Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism	8.23%	4		[11]
	IU	List United Left of Aragon (IU)		Patricia Luquin	Socialism Communism	6.16%	4		[12]
	Podemos	List We Can (Podemos)		Pablo Echenique	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	Did not contest			[13]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Susana Gaspar	Liberalism	Did not contest			[14]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout									Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	N/A	66.3	27.5 21	21.4 18	6.9 6	4.6 2	4.2 1	0.9 0	20.6 14	9.4 5	6.1
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[p 1]	24 May 2015	?	?	27.6 20/23	20.6 16/18	6.3 5/6	5.6 2/3	3.4 1/2	–	21.0 14/16	10.4 7/8	6.6
GAD3/Antena 3[p 2]	11–22 May 2015	?	?	? 20/22	? 16/17	? 3/5	? 2/3	? 2	–	? 12/13	? 8/9	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 3][p 4][p 5]	17 May 2015	550	?	30.2 23/24	25.1 19/20	6.1 4/5	5.7 2/3	5.5 2/3	1.0 0	11.2 8/9	12.5 7/8	5.1
Metroscopia/El País[p 6][p 7]	4–5 May 2015	1,000	75.6	23.9 19	21.9 16	3.0 3	2.9 1	7.0 4	–	22.5 14	15.9 10	1.4
Intercampo/Podemos[p 8][p 9]	15–30 Apr 2015	1,800	?	24.0– 28.0	19.0– 20.0	3.0– 5.0	2.0– 4.0	1.0– 3.0	1.0– 2.0	23.0– 26.0	19.0– 20.0	1.0– 2.0
GAD3/ABC[p 10][p 11][p 12]	20–29 Apr 2015	1,000	?	28.4 19/22	21.1 15/16	4.6 3/4	3.9 2/3	5.3 2/3	0.8 0	15.7 10/12	16.2 11/12	7.3
CIS[p 13][p 14]	23 Mar–20 Apr 2015	1,586	?	29.7 23/24	22.4 17	5.7 4	5.0 2	5.4 3	1.5 0	14.1 9	12.9 8/9	7.3
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 15][p 16]	6–17 Apr 2015	2,000	?	28.0 19/22	20.9 15/18	8.3 4/7	7.2 3/4	5.0 1/2	0.9 0	14.9 11/14	11.3 7/11	7.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18][p 19]	20 Mar–9 Apr 2015	550	?	30.8 23/24	26.4 20/21	6.8 4/5	6.3 2/3	4.3 1/2	1.1 0	11.5 8/9	10.4 7/8	4.4
Llorente & Cuenca[p 20]	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 21/25	? 17/19	? 6/7	? 2/6	? 4/6	? 2	? 9/14	–	?
2014 EP election[p 21]	25 May 2014	N/A	45.7	27.9 24	24.3 21	–	4.5 2	9.4 7	8.5 5	9.5 7	2.9 1	3.6
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 22][p 23][p 24]	10 Mar–3 Apr 2014	2,000	56.0	31.2 22/26	29.6 21/25	7.0 4/6	6.8 4/7	9.3 6/9	8.5 5/8	–	–	1.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 25][p 26]	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	? 27/28	? 21/22	? 6/7	? 6/7	? 6/7	? 0/2	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 27][p 28][p 29]	15 Apr–10 May 2013	300	?	36.3 28/29	27.1 21/22	? 6/7	? 4/5	? 4/5	–	–	–	9.2
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 30][p 31]	23 Apr 2013	?	53.1	32.2 23/26	28.7 21/24	8.4 6/9	10.1 6/9	9.7 5/8	3.8 1/3	–	–	3.5
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	N/A	71.0	47.7 36	31.5 23	w.PP	w.IU	10.5 6	5.8 2	–	–	16.2
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	67.9	39.7 30	29.0 22	9.2 7	8.2 4	6.2 4	2.3 0	–	–	10.7

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Aragon election results →

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	183,654	27.50	–12.19	21	–9
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	143,096	21.43	–7.59	18	–4
	We Can (Podemos)	137,325	20.56	New	14	+14
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	62,907	9.42	New	5	+5
	Aragonese Party (PAR)	45,846	6.86	–2.29	6	–1
	Aragonese Union (CHA)	30,618	4.58	–3.65	2	–2
	United Left of Aragon (IU)	28,184	4.22	–1.94	1	–3
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	5,708	0.85	–1.46	0	±0
	Blank Seats (EB)	5,323	0.80	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	4,946	0.74	+0.42	0	±0
	Commitment with Aragon (CCA)	2,844	0.43	–0.12	0	±0
	Equo (Equo)	1,256	0.19	New	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	1,082	0.16	New	0	±0
	Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA)	648	0.10	–0.04	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	616	0.09	New	0	±0
	Aragonese Bloc (BAR)	581	0.09	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		13,224	1.98	–1.21
Total		667,858			67	±0
Valid votes		667,858	98.70	+0.20
Invalid votes		8,796	1.30	–0.20
Votes cast / turnout		676,654	66.33	–1.57
Abstentions		343,452	33.67	+1.57
Registered voters		1,020,106
Sources[7][15][16]

Popular vote PP   27.50% PSOE   21.43% Podemos   20.56% C's   9.42% PAR   6.86% CHA   4.58% IU   4.22% Others   3.44% Blank ballots   1.98%

Seats PP   31.34% PSOE   26.87% Podemos   20.90% PAR   8.96% C's   7.46% CHA   2.99% IU   1.49%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		Podemos		C's		PAR		CHA		IU
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Huesca	26.2	5	26.4	6	18.6	4	8.4	1	9.2	2	3.1	−	3.3	−
Teruel	27.5	5	22.0	4	16.1	2	7.2	1	13.7	2	3.4	−	4.6	−
Zaragoza	27.8	11	20.1	8	21.7	8	10.0	3	5.2	2	5.1	2	4.4	1
Total	27.5	21	21.4	18	20.6	14	9.4	5	6.9	6	4.6	2	4.2	1
Sources[7][15][16]

Aftermath

Investiture Javier Lambán (PSOE)
Ballot →		3 July 2015
Required majority →		34 out of 67
	Yes • PSOE (18) • Podemos (14) • CHA (2) • IU (1)	35 / 67
	No • PP (21) • PAR (6) • Cs (5)	32 / 67
	Abstentions	0 / 67
	Absentees	0 / 67
Sources[7]

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Sondeo de FORTA en Aragón: PP, 20-23 escaños; PSOE, 16-18; Podemos, 14-16; Ciudadanos, 7-8; PAR, 5-6; CHA, 2-3, e IU, 1-2". Aragón Radio (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
2. "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
3. "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
4. "Aragón: Pacto a tres bandas para mantener a Rudi en el Gobierno". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
5. "Aragón. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
6. "El 72% de los aragoneses apoya que se forme un Gobierno de coalición". El País (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
7. "Situación política en Aragón". El País (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
8. "Podemos y PP empatan en cabeza en Aragón por delante de Ciudadanos y PSOE, también igualados". Público (in Spanish). 5 May 2015.
9. "Resultados encuesta Elecciones Autonómicas 2015". YouTube (in Spanish). 5 May 2015.
10. "Rudi pierde a un tercio de sus votantes y queda en manos de C's". ABC (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
11. "El PP, ante el minifundio de partidos". ABC (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
12. "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
13. "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas y municipales 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Estudio nº 3064. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
14. "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
15. "La fragmentación del voto obligaría a pactar a varias bandas para gobernar". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
16. "ARAGÓN, Abril 2015. Sondeo A+M". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
17. "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
18. "Aragón: Los acuerdos, decisivos en uno de los parlamentos más fragmentados". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
19. "Aragón. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
20. "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
21. "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
22. "PP y PSOE tendrían que lograr pactos a tres bandas para poder formar gobierno". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2014.
23. "El PP adelanta en 1,6 puntos al PSOE en Aragón (El Heraldo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 23 April 2014. Archived from the original on 26 April 2014.
24. "ARAGÓN, Abril 2014. A+M / Heraldo de Aragón". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2014.
25. "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
26. "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 2 March 2015.
27. "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
28. "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
29. "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
30. "La crisis y la desafección harían perder al PP unos 90.000 votos y al PSOE, 40.000". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2013.
31. "Encuesta publicada en el "Heraldo de Aragón" el día 23-04-2013". CUIzquierda (in Spanish). 28 April 2013.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón". Organic Law No. 5 of 20 April 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
3. "Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón". Law No. 2 of 12 February 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
6. "Decreto de 30 de marzo de 2015, de la Presidenta de Aragón, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (77): 27301–27302. 31 March 2015. ISSN 0212-033X.
7. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 September 2017.
8. "Rajoy se abona a retrasar nombramientos: "Habrá candidatos en febrero, o no"". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 13 February 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
9. "Lambán, proclamado candidato del PSOE a las autonómicas de Aragón". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2014. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
10. "Arturo Aliaga es el candidato del PAR a la presidencia del Gobierno de Aragón tras la celebración de las primarias". Ronda Somontano (in Spanish). 30 November 2014. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
11. "José Luis Soro, elegido presidente de CHA con el 74,2% de los votos". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 11 February 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
12. "Patricia Luquin elegida candidata a la presidencia de la DGA por la militancia y los simpatizantes de IU Aragón". AraInfo (in Spanish). 2 February 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
13. "José Manuel López y Pablo Echenique serán los candidatos de Podemos en Madrid y Aragón". RTVE (in Spanish). 1 April 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
14. "Susana Gaspar será la candidata de Ciudadanos en Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
15. "Cortes of Aragon election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Aragon. 9 June 2015. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
16. "Aragon Electoral Archive. Cortes of Aragon election, 2015. Autonomous Community of Aragon". servicios.aragon.es (in Spanish). Government of Aragon. Retrieved 26 September 2017.