2012 United States Senate election in Indiana

The 2012 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2012 United States Senate election in Indiana
November 6, 2012
Turnout58.5%[1]
 
Nominee Joe Donnelly Richard Mourdock Andy Horning
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 1,281,181 1,133,621 145,282
Percentage 50.0% 44.3% 5.7%
County results
Donnelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Mourdock:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Richard Lugar
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

Elections in Indiana
Federal government
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U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
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State elections
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Evansville
Mayoral Elections
Fort Wayne
Mayoral Elections
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Mayoral Elections
Before Unigov
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Mayoral Elections

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Lugar ran for reelection to a seventh term, but was defeated in the primary by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock. U.S. Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana's 2nd congressional district, was unopposed in his party's primary, and then defeated both Mourdock and Libertarian Andrew Horning in the general election. As of 2021, this is the last time a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate, or won any statewide race, in Indiana, and the most recent Senate election in which an elected incumbent was defeated in the primary.[2] This is also the most recent time a party would flip a Senate seat in a presidential election year without carrying the state in the presidential election.[3]

Background and overview

On November 7, 2006, incumbent Richard Lugar was unopposed by any major party candidate as no Democrat filed for the May 2006 primary. He was re-elected to his sixth six-year term with 87.3% of the vote.[4] After the 2012 election, Lugar would have had an even chance, according to Senate Republican Conference rules, to be elected as its president pro tempore.[5] However, the issue was rendered moot with Lugar's primary loss on May 9, 2012, as Indiana state law prohibits candidates from running for an election after losing a primary. Time featured the race in their "Fury of the Senate" article. The article mentioned how Donnelly was lucky that Mourdock won out in the primary against Lugar, a well-liked centrist member of the GOP. Another boost came when Mourdock's remarks regarding rape helped propel Donnelly to victory.[6]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 8, 2012.

Declared

Declined

Campaign

Due to Lugar's unpopularity among some Tea Party voters because of his positions regarding illegal immigration, voting to confirm then-U.S. Supreme Court nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, the DREAM Act, the New START Treaty, some gun control bills, and congressional earmarks, he was challenged by a Tea Party-backed candidate.[12][13]

The Indiana Debate Commission's GOP primary debate with Sen. Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was set to air at 7 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 11.[14] In a widely published poll taken March 26 to 28, Lugar was still in the lead, but by the time of a second published poll from April 30 to May 1, Mourdock was leading 48% to 38%.

Mourdock defeated Senator Lugar in the Republican primary on May 8, 2012.[15][16]

According to Indiana law, Lugar's defeat meant that he would not be permitted to run in the election either as a third party or an independent candidate after he lost the primary.[17]

Endorsements
Richard Lugar
Individuals
Organizations
Richard Mourdock
Individuals
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Richard
Mourdock		 Richard
Lugar		 Undecided
Basswood Research (R) July 23–24, 2011 500 ±4.4% 34% 32% 34%
American Viewpoint (R) July 27–28, 2011 600 ±4.0% 31% 45% 23%
Howey Politics/DePauw University March 26–28, 2012 503 ±4.5% 35% 42% 28%
Howey Politics/DePauw University April 30 – May 1, 2012 700 ±3.7% 48% 38% 14%

Results
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Mourdock 400,321 60.5%
Republican Richard Lugar (incumbent) 261,285 39.5%
Total votes 661,606 100.0%

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Results

Donnelly was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly 207,715 100.00%
Total votes 207,715 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Confirmed debates with Donnelly, Horning and Mourdock are:[51]

Date: Monday, October 15
Broadcast Time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: Indianapolis
Venue: WFYI-TV (in studio/no live audience)

Date: Tuesday, October 23
Broadcast Time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: New Albany
Venue: Paul W. Ogle Cultural & Community Center, Indiana University Southeast (live audience – seating up to 500)

Fundraising
Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Joe Donnelly (D) $5,572,319 $5,496,760 $95,578 $0
Richard Mourdock (R) $8,982,053 $8,698,721 $283,332 $0
Andy Horning (L) $4,907 $2,905 $2,005 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[52]

Top contributors
Joe Donnelly Contribution Richard Mourdock Contribution
Faegre Baker Daniels $30,942 Club for Growth $290,815
MacAndrews & Forbes $29,500 Senate Conservatives Fund $58,728
Renco Group $27,400 Koch Industries $30,000
Barnes & Thornburg $22,601 Murray Energy $15,000
University of Notre Dame $20,150 Lucas Oil Products $11,400
MWH Global WPP plc $17,000 ESOP Association $10,750
Eli Lilly and Company $16,912 Blue Cross Blue Shield Association $10,250
Power, Rogers & Smith $16,000 American Bankers Association $10,000
Mid Manhattan PAC $13,750 ExxonMobil $10,000
Patton Boggs LLP $13,083 Citizens United $10,000
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[53]

Top industries
Joe Donnelly Contribution Richard Mourdock Contribution
Lawyers/law firms $463,098 Republican/Conservative PACs $474,661
Leadership PACs $298,000 Leadership PACs $305,607
Retired $192,716 Retired $244,206
Lobbyists $109,987 Oil & gas $132,530
Building trade unions $77,000 Financial institutions $90,200
Financial institutions $100,235 Commercial banks $88,430
Education $91,563 Health professionals $86,567
Building trade unions $63,500 Misc. finance $64,815
Public sector unions $87,000 Manufacturing industry $60,200
Political action committees $63,798 Real estate $58,290
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[54]

Pregnancy from rape controversy
Main article: Rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections
See also: Pregnancy from rape

Mourdock became embroiled in a controversy after stating that pregnancy from rape is "something that God intended". His remarks were made during a debate on October 23, 2012, while explaining his opposition to abortion even in the case of rape. At the debate Mourdock, when asked what his position on abortion was, responded:

I know there are some who disagree and I respect their point of view but I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have to have an abortion is in that case of the life of the mother. I just struggled with it myself for a long time but I came to realize: "Life is that gift from God that I think even if life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen".[55]

Media speculated that this could affect the outcome of the Senate race and Presidential race[56] and multiple sources noted the similarities with the rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections.[57][58]

Responding to the criticism, Mourdock issued a statement saying: "God creates life, and that was my point. God does not want rape, and by no means was I suggesting that he does. Rape is a horrible thing, and for anyone to twist my words otherwise is absurd and sick."[59] He was later quoted at a press conference also saying: "I believe God controls the universe. I don't believe biology works in an uncontrolled fashion."[60] He however refused to issue an apology, even while prominent Republicans, including Sen. John McCain, called for him to do so.[61]

Response

A day before the controversy started, a television ad began airing that showed Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for United States President, supporting Mourdock.[62] The Romney campaign subsequently issued a statement saying "Gov. Romney disagrees with Richard Mourdock's comments, and they do not reflect his views," but did not pull the ad. Senator John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said "Richard and I, along with millions of Americans—including even Joe Donnelly—believe that life is a gift from God. To try and construe his words as anything other than a restatement of that belief is irresponsible and ridiculous".[63][64]

Many public Republicans called for Mourdock to apologize for the statement. Sen. John McCain called for him to issue an apology and his support "depends on what he does."[61] Senator Scott Brown refused to state that he supported Mourdock in the election.[65] Rep. Mike Pence, a Republican running for governor of Indiana concurrent to Mourdock's senatorial campaign, urged Mourdock to apologize. "I strongly disagree with the statement made by Richard Mourdock during last night's Senate debate," he said in a statement. "I urge him to apologize."[66]

President Obama stated, "Rape is rape. It is a crime," on the Tonight Show. He continued, "These various distinctions about rape don't make too much sense to me."[67] Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, immediately criticized Mourdock, saying: "I'm stunned and ashamed that Richard Mourdock believes God intended rape", and claimed that he is an "extremist" who is out of touch with Indiana.[55]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[68] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[70] Tilt D (flip) November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[71] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Richard
Mourdock (R)		 Joe
Donnelly (D)		 Andrew
Horning (L)		 Other Undecided
Howey Politics/DePauw University March 26–28, 2012 503 ± 4.4% 35% 35% 7% — 23%
Rasmussen Reports May 23–24, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 42% 42% — 2% 14%
Rasmussen Reports July 31 – August 1, 2012 400 ± 5.0% 42% 40% — 3% 15%
Market Research Insight August 6–9, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 41% 39% 3% — 17%
Howey Politics/DePauw University September 19–23, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 38% 40% 7% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 10–11, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 47% 42% — 2% 8%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 754 ± 3.6% 46% 46% — — 8%
Howey Politics/DePauw University October 28–30, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 36% 47% 6% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports November 1, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 42% 45% 6% — 6%

Results

On election night, Donnelly won by about six percent. Donnelly performed well in Marion County, home of Indianapolis. Donnelly also won areas with major college campuses, such as Indiana University in Bloomington, Purdue University in Lafayette. Mourdock performed well, as expected in the Indianapolis suburbs, such as Hamilton County. Mourdock conceded defeat to Donnelly at around 11:30 p.m. EST.

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2012[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Donnelly 1,281,181 50.04% N/A
Republican Richard Mourdock 1,133,621 44.28% -43.08%
Libertarian Andy Horning 145,282 5.68% -6.91%
Write-in 18 0.00% -0.06%
Total votes 2,560,102 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

References
  1. "2012 General Election Turnout and Absentee Report" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. November 28, 2012. Retrieved July 14, 2017.
  2. Joe Kennedy Isn’t Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger. FiveThirtyEight. 24 September 2019.
  3. Independents would flip the Maine senate seat though the independent would caucus with the democrats, who won the state in the presidential election.
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