2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
November 6, 2018
Turnout55.03%
 
Nominee Martin Heinrich Mick Rich Gary Johnson
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 376,998 212,813 107,201
Percentage 54.1% 30.5% 15.4%
County results

Heinrich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Rich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico
General elections
Federal elections
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
City of Albuquerque
Mayoral elections

Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won reelection to a second term.[1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two time candidate for President of the United States.

The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018.[2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.

Democratic primary

Declared

Results
Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 152,145 100%
Total votes 152,145 100%

Republican primary

Declared
  • Mick Rich, businessman[4]

Declined

Results
Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mick Rich 67,502 100%
Total votes 67,502 100%

Libertarian primary

On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement.[8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13.[9]

Declared

Withdrew nomination

Results
Libertarian primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Aubrey Dunn 623 100%
Total votes 623 100%

General election

Debates

Endorsements
Martin Heinrich (D)
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Mick Rich (R)
Governors
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Gary Johnson (L)
Governors
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State Representatives
Local officeholders
Journalists
Newspapers
Organizations
  • Libertarian Youth Caucus[37]
  • New Mexico Open Primaries[38]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Safe D November 1, 2018
Inside Elections[40] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Safe D November 1, 2018
Fox News[42] Likely D November 1, 2018
CNN[43] Safe D November 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics[44] Safe D November 1, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[45] Safe D November 1, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Martin
Heinrich (D)		 Mick
Rich (R)		 Gary
Johnson (L)		 Undecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 47% 33% 11% 9%
Carroll Strategies November 1, 2018 1,202 ± 2.8% 51% 38% 8% 3%
Research & Polling, Inc. October 26 – November 1, 2018 993 ± 3.1% 51% 31% 12% 6%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018 936 ± 3.4% 48% 32% 16% 5%
Pacific Market Research October 19–24, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 40% 28% 22% 11%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) September 20–24, 2018 932 – 36% 10% 28% 26%
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) September 16–17, 2018 900 – 38% 10% 28% 24%
Research & Polling, Inc. September 7–13, 2018 966 ± 3.1% 47% 26% 16% –
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) August 2018 900 – 38% 13% 28% 21%
Emerson College August 17–18, 2018 500 ± 4.6% 39% 11% 21% 30%
GQR Research (D-TMI) August 2–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 48% 33% 17% 2%
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) August 1–5, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 47% 29% 22% –
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) July 31 – August 2, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 44% 30% 20% 6%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) July 2018 500 – 39% 25% 23% 12%

Results
United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 376,998 54.09% +3.08%
Republican Mick Rich 212,813 30.53% -14.75%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 107,201 15.38% N/A
Total votes 697,012 100% N/A
Democratic hold

County results
Vote Break Down by County[46]
Martin Heinrich
Democrat		 Mick Rich
Republican		 Gary Johnson
Libertarian		 Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Bernalillo140,08258.06%61,93225.67%39,27416.28%241,288
Catron55026.86%1,07558.36%21711.78%1,842
Chaves5,27931.66%8,72752.35%2,66615.99%16,672
Cibola3,92455.10%1,84225.87%1,35519.03%7,121
Colfax2,33349.86%1,61534.52%73115.62%4,679
Curry2,79327.42%5,89657.88%1,49814.71%10,187
De Baca26733.17%34242.48%19624.35%805
Dona Ana34,65157.01%18,10129.78%8,02913.21%60,781
Eddy4,83430.68%8,82656.02%2,09513.30%15,755
Grant6,76357.30%3,59830.48%1,44212.22%11,803
Guadalupe1,09465.20%29217.40%29217.40%1,678
Harding19841.16%19941.37%8417.46%481
Hidalgo79049.53%60738.06%19812.41%1,595
Lea3,33124.07%8,88264.17%1,62811.76%13,841
Lincoln2,61733.34%4,12252.51%1,11114.15%7,850
Los Alamos5,79856.29%2,57625.01%1,92618.70%10,300
Luna3,00548.93%2,31337.66%82313.40%6,141
McKinley12,40967.54%2,91515.87%3,04916.60%18,373
Mora1,56467.36%37216.02%38616.62%2,322
Otero6,37037.21%8,46049.41%2,29113.38%17,121
Quay1,01632.91%1,53449.69%53717.40%3,087
Rio Arriba8,77368.79%1,94515.25%2,03515.96%12,753
Roosevelt1,27727.56%2,60656.25%75016.19%4,633
San Juan12,48533.42%18,00248.18%6,87618.40%37,363
San Miguel6,60971.60%1,29814.06%1,32314.33%9,230
Sandoval28,19850.92%17,78532.11%9,39716.97%55,380
Santa Fe49,99474.42%9,54614.21%7,64211.38%67,182
Sierra1,91740.51%2,04843.28%76716.21%4,732
Socorro3,40954.65%1,70027.25%1,12918.10%6,238
Taos10,83874.71%1,55610.73%2,11214.56%14,506
Torrance1,98236.94%2,43345.34%95117.72%5,366
Union33422.81%87859.97%25217.21%1,464
Valencia11,51447.11%8,79035.96%4,13916.93%24,443

References
  1. Coleman, Michael (November 10, 2016). "Who wants to be New Mexico's next governor?". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  2. "United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  3. "New Mexico Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. June 3, 2019.
  4. Lee, Morgan (April 19, 2017). "New Mexico construction contractor announces US Senate bid". KOB. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
  5. "Libertarian Party gets a boost in NM". Nmpoliticalreport.com. Retrieved 11 June 2018.
  6. Keithley, Tim (November 23, 2016). "Turkey talk: Political drama on the horizon in 2018". Ruidoso News. Retrieved November 23, 2016.
  7. "New Mexico Governor Rules Out Senate Run". U.S. News & World Report. 18 January 2018. Retrieved 15 March 2018.
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  9. Boyd, Dan (August 14, 2018). "Gary Johnson makes it official: He's running for U.S. Senate". Albuquerque Journal.
  10. "Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run". Associated Press. Associated Press.
  11. McLaughlin, Jill. "Aubrey Dunn withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Los Alamos Monitor. Los Alamos Monitor. Retrieved 30 July 2018.
  12. @TeamHeinrich (August 17, 2018). "Speaking of independent voices in the Senate, here's @SenAngusKing on why we need Martin's. #nmpol #nmsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. "Retirees Celebrate Social Security's 83rd Anniversary by Endorsing Senator Heinrich - Retired Americans". Retired Americans. August 23, 2018.
  14. Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Re-election". End Citizens United.
  15. "2018 Senate Endorsees - JStreet".
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  18. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierraclub.org. 16 July 2012. Retrieved 11 June 2018.
  19. "Carpenters 2018 Midterm New Mexico Endorsements". Swcarpenters.org. Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters.
  20. "New Mexico – Official UAW Endorsements". Uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  21. @MickRich4Senate (September 6, 2018). "With Gov. Susana Martinez at the Carlsbad Mayor's Energy Summit. #NMpol #NMsen #Carlsbad #oil&gas" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  22. "Steve Pearce Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 3, 2018. Retrieved November 3, 2018.
  23. Lyman, Andy (October 19, 2018). "Steve Bannon: Mick Rich is a 'real populist'". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  24. "Associated Builders and Contractors Endorses Mick Rich for U.S. Senate". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. June 29, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2018. Retrieved June 23, 2018.
  25. "National Right To Life Committee Endorses Mick Rich". Mick Rich for U.S. Senate. July 31, 2018. Archived from the original on July 31, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
  26. Mick Rich. "I'm honored today to be endorsed by the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors PAC. Thank you! I am the only conservative and pro-business candidate in New Mexico's race for U.S. Senate. #NMpol #NMsen". Twitter.
  27. "Bill Weld". Facebook. Retrieved 24 August 2018.
  28. "Sen. Rand Paul Backs Libertarian Senate Candidate". The Associated Press. August 28, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  29. Keller, Megan (August 28, 2018). "Rand Paul endorses Gary Johnson's Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved 11 January 2019.
  30. "Aubrey Dunn". Las Cruces Sun News. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
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  32. "Endorsements". Gary Johnson Official Campaign Site. Archived from the original on August 31, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  33. @Mark4Gov (August 28, 2018). "Thank you @RandPaul for supporting the very best candidate for senate in New Mexico, @GovGaryJohnson!!#principlesoverparty#riseofthelibertarians#endtwopartyrule" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  34. Welch, Matt (August 31, 2018). "Eric Brakey, Republican Senate Candidate in Maine, Endorses Gary Johnson". Reason. Retrieved August 31, 2018.
  35. @nickgillespie (August 14, 2018). "Very excited at this news about @GovGaryJohnson running as @LPNational candidate for Senate in NM! Stand by for more @MattWelch coverage reason.com/blog/2018/08/14/its-happening-gary-johnson-running-for-s … @GovBillWeld" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  36. "The Senate could use more libertarians like Gary Johnson". Ocregister.com. 17 August 2018. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
  37. "Libertarian Youth Caucus". Facebook.com. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
  38. "New Mexico Open Primaries". Facebook.com. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
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  40. "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
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  44. "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved September 10, 2018.
  45. Silver, Nate (2018-09-11). "New Mexico - 2018 Senate Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
  46. http://electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/resultsCTY.aspx?type=FED&rid=4898&osn=180&map=CTY
Official campaign websites
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